Nassib by quarter

[kingottoiii]

1Q 47-74 63.5% 406 8.6 2-2 75.6 (NFL)
2Q 48-89 53.9% 564 11.75 6-1 91.2
3Q 45-66 68.2% 513 11.4 4-1 105.2
4Q 74-113 65.5% 751 10.1 7-2 97.6

By half
1H 95-163 58.3% 970 10.2 8-3 84.1
2H 119-179 66.5% 1264 11-3 100.4

SU's ppg by Q and H

1Q 3.4
2Q 8.2
3Q 5.5
4Q 7.4

1H 11.6
2H12.8

It always seems like we get off to a slow start in the first. I find it interesting that Nassib's yards per completion is so low that Q. That tells me we are calling a lot of short passes and being conservative. But at the same time Nassib's completion % is low, which tells me he gets off to a slow start. Would being more aggressive help?

The second Q is Nassib's worst completion % Q by far. However it is also his best yards per completion Q and the teams best ppg Q. That tells me we are more aggressive. We just need him to be better at completing passes.

The third Q we always try and run the ball and it always seems like a wasted Q. Our D usually holds but our O does nothing that Q. Nassib's rating is the best in the 3rd Q, and it is also the Q he throws it the least. The difference vs the 1Q however is his yards per completion. The overall O is conservative (more runs), but at the same time we allow him to do more than dump it off. This brings up an interesting question. Is Nassib's production because he feels settled in? Or is it because we play off the running game this Q? If it is the former, then we need to throw it more. If it is the latter, then we need to be better at running the ball.

For the most part we have been behind in the 4th Q. And that shows as Nassib has thrown a lot more passes that Q. His numbers are solid across the board in the 4th. So we shouldn't be scared to throw it more.

So the Qs we throw it more and are more aggressive we score 15.6 ppg. The other two Qs we score 8.9 ppg. When we are conservative his completion % is 65.7%, while it is only 60.4% when we are aggressive. However his QB rating is higher when we are aggressive 94.8 vs 89.5. I will trade completion % off any day for the points.

 

[orangenauburn]

Interesting. Thanks

 

[javadoc]

Hopefully at least one coach reads this board so they can see this stuff, assuming they aren't tracking it already. Very interesting, thx for crunching the nums.

I would guess that first Q stats stem from trying to run run run, and then trying to keep drives alive, rather than going for a quick strike. Playing slow and conservative by design.

 

[690West]

Damn you have some fantastic posts

 

[ljmilman]

Good points. The issue seems to be that when we do go deep, Nassib is inaccurate. I can think of a few times this year where we've had a WR open on the rare occasion that we look deep...but Nassib hasn't made that throw anywhere near consistently.

 

[Shenexon]

So the Qs we throw it more and are more aggressive we score 15.6 ppg. The other two Qs we score 8.9 ppg. When we are conservative his completion % is 65.7%, while it is only 60.4% when we are aggressive. However his QB rating is higher when we are aggressive 94.8 vs 89.5. I will trade completion % off any day for the points.

Well done. A candidate for best read of the day.

 

[ImperialOrange]

Good points. The issue seems to be that when we do go deep, Nassib is inaccurate. I can think of a few times this year where we've had a WR open on the rare occasion that we look deep...but Nassib hasn't made that throw anywhere near consistently.

Would be curious to have a completion % on throws of 15+ yards. Even if it's 33% it would still be a first down if we did it 3 times in a row and hit 1.

Would love for us to come out the opening drive and throw deep 3 times in a row. You know the defense wouldnt be looking for it, especially the 2nd time if the 1st throw is incomplete. Same thing to open the 2nd half. Much better than 2 runs, short passthen punt or 6 runs short pass then punt as we've been seeing.

 

[ljmilman]

Would be curious to have a completion % on throws of 15+ yards. Even if it's 33% it would still be a first down if we did it 3 times in a row and hit 1.

Would love for us to come out the opening drive and throw deep 3 times in a row. You know the defense wouldnt be looking for it, especially the 2nd time if the 1st throw is incomplete. Same thing to open the 2nd half. Much better than 2 runs, short passthen punt or 6 runs short pass then punt as we've been seeing.

Very true. The more I thought about the original points made, I'd sacrifice (some) completion percentage for yards and scores...it's a matter of whether Nassib can make those plays work at any reasonable rate.

 

[ImperialOrange]

Very true. The more I thought about the original points made, I'd sacrifice (some) completion percentage for yards and scores...it's a matter of whether Nassib can make those plays work at any reasonable rate.

Looking at the yards per completion numbers it becomes waaaay too obvious that the scoreboard is dictating our play calling. We don't dial up anything deep until we are behind. Our offense is reactive, not proactive or complacent as we've come to see. We don't know is Nassib can do this at a reasonable rate... what we do know is we can't run the ball at a reasonable rate to open games or halves.

How bout we throw deep to try and get ahead, then continue to do so occasionally to make sure we stay there? Hurry up, spread set would be great to open up a game. Why not use it before the defense knows it can stop our standard stuff without needing to overload anywhere?

I keep posting "call the first play threads" hoping it's something other than a Bailey run. Every week the ones who pick Bailey run are correct. Pretty sure the other teams D coordinators know that as well.

Sorry, just venting

 

[ljmilman]

I agree. It's almost like when Hackett (and Marrone, and anyone else involved in offensive gameplanning) has more than one week (Pinstripe Bowl, WV, etc), they are able to come up with a great and effective plan against that next opponent...and when they don't have the extra time, they revert back to their safe "run up the middle until it doesn't work, then throw once we're behind" plan.

 

[ImperialOrange]

I agree. It's almost like when Hackett (and Marrone, and anyone else involved in offensive gameplanning) has more than one week (Pinstripe Bowl, WV, etc), they are able to come up with a great and effective plan against that next opponent...and when they don't have the extra time, they revert back to their safe "run up the middle until it doesn't work, then throw once we're behind" plan.

Yup. We pretty much concede the lead to start every game and try and adjust as we go making ourselves more one dimensional in the process.

Coaches are playing a chess match which is fine in the NFL because the defenses are more consistant and give you time to figure it out. In college it needs to be a boxing match going for the knockout every chance you get since defenses (ours and others) are inconsistant at this level.

 

[dollarbill44]

Looking at the yards per completion numbers it becomes waaaay too obvious that the scoreboard is dictating our play calling. We don't dial up anything deep until we are behind. Our offense is reactive, not proactive or complacent as we've come to see. We don't know is Nassib can do this at a reasonable rate... what we do know is we can't run the ball at a reasonable rate to open games or halves.

How bout we throw deep to try and get ahead, then continue to do so occasionally to make sure we stay there? Hurry up, spread set would be great to open up a game. Why not use it before the defense knows it can stop our standard stuff without needing to overload anywhere?

I keep posting "call the first play threads" hoping it's something other than a Bailey run. Every week the ones who pick Bailey run are correct. Pretty sure the other teams D coordinators know that as well.

Sorry, just venting

This (bold text) just isn't true. Most of the times we've gone deep this season, it was either early in the game or we had a lead. I also don't know how many deep passes have been called but the blocking just wasn't there or the WRs broke their routes or were doubled. I haven't been to a game in person yet (coming up for Cincy) and you just don't see the "all 22" on tv to see what happens on the deep routes.

 

[SWC75]

Would be curious to have a completion % on throws of 15+ yards. Even if it's 33% it would still be a first down if we did it 3 times in a row and hit 1.

Would love for us to come out the opening drive and throw deep 3 times in a row. You know the defense wouldnt be looking for it, especially the 2nd time if the 1st throw is incomplete. Same thing to open the 2nd half. Much better than 2 runs, short passthen punt or 6 runs short pass then punt as we've been seeing.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cP99QQak6mw

 

[ImperialOrange]

This (bold text) just isn't true. Most of the times we've gone deep this season, it was either early in the game or we had a lead. I also don't know how many deep passes have been called but the blocking just wasn't there or the WRs broke their routes or were doubled. I haven't been to a game in person yet (coming up for Cincy) and you just don't see the "all 22" on tv to see what happens on the deep routes.

Fair enough I'll amend that to we don't dial up enough deep stuff until we are behind. 1 deep throw every 3-4 series isn't enough. Teams are loading up and begging us to beat them deep early, we just don't try enough until we're behind.

Rutgers loaded 8 in the box until they realized they could stop us with less. Wake may have as well but that game is a distant memory to me at this point. Only other I was at was WVU and that's the one game we executed our dink and dunk offense up and down the field because their 3 man front didn't get pressure, Nassib was accurate and our WRs caught everything on 3rd down.

 

[SWC75]

Looking at the yards per completion numbers it becomes waaaay too obvious that the scoreboard is dictating our play calling. We don't dial up anything deep until we are behind. Our offense is reactive, not proactive or complacent as we've come to see. We don't know is Nassib can do this at a reasonable rate... what we do know is we can't run the ball at a reasonable rate to open games or halves.

How bout we throw deep to try and get ahead, then continue to do so occasionally to make sure we stay there? Hurry up, spread set would be great to open up a game. Why not use it before the defense knows it can stop our standard stuff without needing to overload anywhere?

I keep posting "call the first play threads" hoping it's something other than a Bailey run. Every week the ones who pick Bailey run are correct. Pretty sure the other teams D coordinators know that as well.

Sorry, just venting

Hey diddle diddle, Rogel up the middle: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fran_Rogel

 

[dollarbill44]

Fair enough I'll amend that to we don't dial up enough deep stuff until we are behind. 1 deep throw every 3-4 series isn't enough. Teams are loading up and begging us to beat them deep early, we just don't try enough until we're behind.

Rutgers loaded 8 in the box until they realized they could stop us with less. Wake may have as well but that game is a distant memory to me at this point. Only other I was at was WVU and that's the one game we executed our dink and dunk offense up and down the field because their 3 man front didn't get pressure, Nassib was accurate and our WRs caught everything on 3rd down.

I agree. Maybe Nassib needs to throw 2 incomplete to find the range before "firing for effect".

 

[ImperialOrange]

I agree. Maybe Nassib needs to throw 2 incomplete to find the range before "firing for effect".

Maybe he'd loosen up if he didn't HAVE to make a perfect throw everytime, maybe not. Would be nice to know one way or the other. If we overthrows the 1st, and the WR drops the 2nd, give them a 3rd chance to get it right.

Hell run some timing routes and tell him to throw it regardless. Pump fake, read the safety and chuck it. With all the predictable stuff we run and the defense sitting on our routes, a pump fake now and then would be lethal.

 

[dollarbill44]

Maybe he'd loosen up if he didn't HAVE to make a perfect throw everytime, maybe not. Would be nice to know one way or the other. If we overthrows the 1st, and the WR drops the 2nd, give them a 3rd chance to get it right.

Hell run some timing routes and tell him to throw it regardless. Pump fake, read the safety and chuck it. With all the predictable stuff we run and the defense sitting on our routes, a pump fake now and then would be lethal.

He hasn't needed to be perfect on the deep routes this season, just somewhere within 5 yards would be nice. He seems to get over-excited when his WR gets a step or two and he throws it too flat. In his 4th year in the program, he should be able to get the ball closer to his WRs on the deeps. The Pinstripe Bowl is the only one I remember him throwing a decent deep pass.

 

[Scooch]

The attempt differential between the 3rd and 4th quarters is absolutely mind boggling!

Leads me to think our coaches spend halftime yelling "MAKE ADJUSTMENT, RUN BALL MORE!!!" at the wall.

 

[Millhouse]

The attempt differential between the 3rd and 4th quarters is absolutely mind boggling!

Leads me to think our coaches spend halftime yelling "MAKE ADJUSTMENT, RUN BALL MORE!!!" at the wall.

this is just my screwed up memory but a lot of the play differential might come from opposing teams seeming to have 28 play TD drives all the time in the third quarter.

i have no idea if this is right

 

[Scooch]

this is just my screwed up memory but a lot of the play differential might come from opposing teams seeming to have 28 play TD drives all the time in the third quarter.

i have no idea if this is right

Yeah, I figured that could be it too. But come on, I gave you a meathead quote, cut me some slack!