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Message: [QUOTE="OttoinGrotto, post: 3608676, member: 297"] One can reasonably expect that Hayward would positively impact that point differential. Do you know of anything that actually does look at point differential from one year and how accurately it predicts record the following year? I can't point to anything specific, but the reliability of record prediction models are generally pretty bad because they regress too much to the mean and put everyone pretty close to .500, when we know that actual record distribution of wins and losses looks a lot lumpier than that. [/QUOTE]