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Message: [QUOTE="jncuse, post: 3611083, member: 1969"] My overview of the 2020 Raptors Offseason. [B]Key Objectives entering Offseason[/B] - Keep Flexibility for a Max Free Agent in 2021. - Remain Competitive, even if not a title contender. - Retain Fred Van Vleet at an at least reasonable contract. - Stay under Luxury Tax Threshold, to avoid repeater tax implications in a future year (as an aside I hate that this was one of the objectives, but it was clear from speculation that it was). [U][I]Analysis[/I][/U] - [I]they did meet all these objectives, but not as much as they hoped regarding competitive level for 2021. See my in/out impact analysis below. None of the contracts they signed (outside of FVV) had any guarantees that would impact the cap space available during summer of 2021. And that was the main objective.[/I] [B] What Appears to have been the Desired Plan - [/B]Sign FVV to "Reasonable" Deal not near max. (concern was due to what teams like Knicks / Pistons would offer) - Offer Serge Ibaka 1/12 deal (which they did offer) - Give most of the MLE to Aaron Baynes - Lose Chris Boucher - Fill in lineup with Scrubs [U][I]Analysis:[/I][/U][I] It appeared from the beginning that there was mutual interest between the Raptors and Baynes for the MLE. But this forced the Raptors to make a low-ball offer.to Ibaka so they could stay below the luxury tax line. And understandably Ibaka was probably upset by this and decided to take what was probably a better contract with the Clips .. less 2021 salary, but more overall guarantee, and a player option for 2022 which allows him to get more potentially. After losing Ibaka, the Raptors decided to re-sign Chris Boucher. The mistake the Raptors made were the following-- and they were not done in the offseason. a) Signing Pat McCaw and Stanley Johnson to two year contracts last summer at $4M each. At the time they seemed like OK risks, and neither extended until summer of 2021 which was key. b) Perhaps giving a few million to much to Siakam prior to beginning of 2019/2020 season. But at most it may have been a few million they could have saved. Siakam was a second team all star, played well for most of the season, but stank in the bubble. Maybe they could have got a slight discount if they waited. In the end the Raptors could have retained Ibaka for 1/18 if they had moved Johnson/McCaw to a team with space ... that team would have certainly asked for a first round pick or a few second rounders. The Raptors passed. It's a debatable decision, but also shows they were not all in on Ibaka either.[/I] [B]Final Grade on Raptors Offseason - "B-"[/B] Giannis in 2021, or another Big FA in 2021, is a longshot. That being said they positioned themselves to strike with the only cost being Ibaka. So I have to give the Raptors a "B-" on their offseason. It was meant to be a transition year and that has been maintained. [B]PLAYERS IN[/B] Aaron Baynes Alex Len Malachi Flynn Deandre Bembry [B]PLAYERS OUT[/B] Serge Ibaka Marc Gasol Rondae Hollis Jefferson Terrance Davis (???) [B]Key Retentions[/B] Fred Van Vleet Chris Boucher [B]Analysis of Guards (1/2)[/B] 2020 - Lowry, Van Vleet, Powell, T. Davis, Matt Thomas 2021 - Lowry, Van Vleet, Powell, Flynn, Matt Thomas Change from Prior Year - FLAT It was a very good group of guards in 2020, despite lacking size. I would say top 8 in the NBA for sure. They should retain that position in 2021. The big loss might be due to the anti-mask idiot Terrence Davis, a promising guard, who may well be released or traded for peanuts due to viciously assaulting his girlfriend. Despite that loss with the development of Thomas and the addition of Flynn that lose will be made up for. [B]Analysis of the 3/4 Position[/B] 2020 - Siakam, Anunoby, Rondae Hollis Jefferson, McCaw 2021 - Siakam, Anunoby, McCaw, Bembry Change form Prior Year - FLAT (Bembry = RHJ for the most part) The starters remain the same. Both at 27 or under, they should continue to develop and improve and will be part of the core entering summer of 2021. Could probably use another productive player, although Boucher plays alot of five. [B]Analysis of the 5/4 Position[/B] 2020 - Gasol, Ibaka, Boucher 2021 - Baynes, Boucher, Len Change from Prior Year - DOWNGRADE Baynes is an offset of Gasol. Essentially this becomes a trade of Serge Ibaka for Alex Len. That is a clear loss for the Raptors. That being said the Raptors were 13-4 in games that Ibaka was injured last year. Ibaka is a fairly large defensive liability at this point, but still a net loss because of his offence.. This was no more evident than in the Celtics series when Gasol struggled, the Raptors started to use OG Anunoby at center for some minutes. Chris Boucher will put up good numbers if you give him 20-25 minutes. But as I said its what he does to the stat sheets of opponents that is the concern. But if he gets more aware this will also offset part of Ibaka loss. [B]2021 Projection:[/B] Pro-rated to 82 games the Raptors went 60-22 last season, and finished second in the East/ The Ibaka loss will hurt but I would still be surprised if we fall out of the 48-55 win range this upcoming year, and I predict they will be somewhere between 3rd in the East (high side) and 5th in the East. The core of the team FVV/Anunody/Siakam should not be any worse. Anunoby will likely be better. The ultimate success of this team is largely Siakam. If he improved from his 2019 playoffs and early season 2020 season level, he would be a clear star player. But if he plays close to what he did in the bubble then this team will not be any better. [B]2021 Trade Deadline and Future[/B] The team has established its core of FVV/Siakam/Anunoby + 2021 Cap Room. If this team is good but not really a contender come the trade deadline (which has to be the expected scenario) it will be interesting to see what they do. Entering the summer of 2021, they may have the option of one of the following to retain enough cap sapce... not even sure if that will be the case. But it is certainly not more than one. - Sign Lowry to a friendly exit contract ($8M or less) - Exercise team option on Baynes - Exercise team option on Boucher. Given what players received this summer Norm Powell will opt out of his $11M contract. So will the Raptors make a whole bunch of players available as we get towards the deadline, the three most prominent being - Lowry - Baynes - Powell All of these players could presumably get some sort of first round pick (late). If Boucher plays well he could also get some draft capital since he is on a friendly team option for 2021. They will also have a better sense on the summer of 2021 market within a few months (i.e. Giannis), so if Siakam/Anunoby progess, they may decide to run most of it back). [/QUOTE]

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