wvlax
2nd String
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Per LaxPower's humb le (the last 3 years he's been 16/16, 15/16 and 15/16 or 95.8%)
The current front-runners for their league AQs (if tied, RPI is used as the tiebreaker for the projection)
America East – UMBC (#29 RPI, #36 SOS, QWs – Maryland (5)) UMBC has the best RPI of the three teams currently tied for first in this one-bid league.
Big East –#3 Notre Dame (#3 RPI, #17 SOS, QWs – Duke (2); Villanova (12); Denver (16); Ohio State (18); Drexel (20)) A big week for the Irish. Besides clinching the #1 seed in the Big East tournament, their RPI jumps to #3, Duke becomes a top 5 RPI win and they add Villanova to their list of Top 20 RPI wins.
Colonial –#4 UMass (#4 RPI, #42 SOS, QWs – Penn State (12); Bucknell (17); Ohio State (18); Drexel (20)) UMass continues to have seeding issues based on their lack of top 10 RPI wins. The committee set a precedent in 2009 when they seeded an undefeated Notre Dame #7 using the same criteria. I think I am being generous with the #4 seed but believe the bad losses by UNC (Penn) and Maryland (UMBC) will help the Minutemen. If UMass wins out, it will be an interesting case study for future Bracketologies to see how they are seeded.
ECAC – #1 Loyola (#1 RPI, #18 SOS, QWs – Duke (2); Fairfield (11); Denver (16); Ohio State (18)) With Duke winning the ACC and jumping to #2 in the RPI coupled with the NCAA rewarding the #1 RPI with the #1 seed in past years, it would seem the Greyhounds are the clear #1 seed at the moment.
Ivy – Princeton (#14 RPI, #29 SOS, QWs – Villanova(12)) – The Ivies are looking more and more like a one bid league. The winner of Princeton-Cornell earns the right to host the Ivy Tournament. The loser is going to face an uphill climb to make it in as an at-large.
MAAC – Siena (#33 RPI, #59 SOS, QWs – None) - AQ or bust in this league
Patriot – Colgate (#10 RPI, #26 SOS, QWs - Lehigh (9); Fairfield (11); Bucknell (17)) –All the games between the teams involved in the Patriot Tournament were one-goal affairs. Should be a heck of tournament. If the Red Raiders win the tournament, they will have a good shot at a seed. Also, don't forget the Red Raiders have a season-ending game against a Maryland team they beat last year to solidify their At-Large resume if things do not go their way in Hamilton this weekend.
The following teams look to be in very good shape for at-large bids since each has a top 10 RPI, top 10 SOS and at least 1 top 5 RPI win:
#2 Duke (#2 RPI, #2 SOS, QWs – Maryland (5); Virginia (6); UNC x2 (7); Syracuse (19)) – Duke is the new Syracuse. The Blue Devils gel as the season progresses and seem to peak at the right time the past few years a la Syracuse in the 90s. Winning the ACC jumps their RPI to #2 and gives them an impressive list of wins to put them in position for the #2 seed
#5 North Carolina (#7t RPI, #1 SOS, QWs –Maryland (5); Virginia (6); Johns Hopkins (7); Penn State (12); Princeton (14)) – An impressive lists of wins is counterbalanced by a hard-to-explain loss to a 2-win Penn squad. Balancing the good with the bad and factoring in a potentially undefeated UMass squad for seating, #5 seems about right.
#6 Virginia (#6 RPI, #8 SOS, QWs –Maryland (5); UNC (7); Cornell (15); Ohio State (18); Syracuse (19); Drexel (20) ) – The Cavs are glad the NCAA doesn’t care about the timing of your wins as they stumble down the stretch a little.
#7 Maryland (#5 RPI; #5 SOS, QWs –Duke (2); Johns Hopkins (7); Villanova (12)) – With only 3 top wins and a bad loss to UMBC, the Terps are flirting with not being seeded again.
That leaves 5 at-large spots. There are 4 teams that have resumes that separate them from the rest of the At-Large contenders (Top 20 RPI with at least 3 Top 20 RPI wins including 1 Top 10 RPI win):
#8 Lehigh (#9 RPI, #22 SOS, QWs – UNC (7); Penn State (12); Bucknell (17)) – Every seeded team since 2009 has had a top 10 RPI. In a close call over fellow Patriot League member Colgate and Hopkins, Lehigh looks to have the best case as you look deeper into the criteria – no bad losses and the win against Navy while Colgate and Hopkins both lost to the Midshipmen. If either Lehigh or Colgate wins the Patriot Tournament, they look to have a good shot at a seed if Hopkins loses to Loyola.
Johns Hopkins (#7t RPI, #13 SOS, QWs –Virginia (7); Princeton (14); Syracuse (19)) – Not a great weekend for the Blue Jays. They get humbled by Navy, their win over Virginia is no longer a top 5 win with the Cavs loss in the ACC semis, and they lost Towson as a top 20 RPI win with the Tigers going down to Drexel. All these things drop the Blue Jays out of the seeded teams for the moment. A big match-up with Loyola coming up that could solidify their position in the tournament as a seeded team.
Penn State (#12t RPI, #6 SOS, QWs –Notre Dame (3); Villanova (12); Ohio State (18); Drexel (20)) – The win over Notre Dame keeps looking better and better for the Nittany Lions. If they can move their RPI into the Top 10, they are definite contenders for a seed with their list of wins and SOS.
Villanova (#12t RPI, #10 SOS, QWs – Lehigh (9); Bucknell (17); Syracuse (19); Drexel (20)) – With 3 of their wins toward the back half of the RPI top 20, the Wildcats are in a vulnerable spot. They could lose one or more of these wins in the coming weeks. Also, they could be bumped by a surprise AQ winner that throws a team like Loyola or UMass into the at-large pool.
That leaves the final group of teams competing for the final at-large spot (listed in order of RPI):
Fairfield (#11 RPI, #33 SOS, QWs – Denver (16))
Cornell (#15 RPI, #39 SOS, QWs – Denver (16); Syracuse(19))
Denver (#16 RPI, #3 SOS, QWs – Penn State (12))
Bucknell (#17 RPI, #12 SOS, QWs – Penn State (12); Drexel (20))
Ohio State (#18 RPI, #7 SOS, QWs - Denver (16))
Syracuse (#19 RPI, #4 SOS, QWs – Princeton (14))
Navy (#21 RPI, #27 SOS, QWs – Johns Hopkins (7); Colgate (10))
Georgetown (#22 RPI,#19 SOS, QWs – Syracuse (19))
Yale (#23 RPI; #44 SOS; QWs – none)
Robert Morris (#25 RPI, #46 SOS, QWs – Ohio State (18))
* - it should be noted that #20 Drexel and #24 Hofstra were not included due to having sub .500 records
Since no team outside the top 20 of the RPI has ever made the tournament, that currently eliminates Navy, Georgetown, Yale and Robert Morris. That said, if Navy’s RPI gets into the top 20, they have two impressive wins that could get them in. It will be interesting to see what happens with their numbers as they sit out the next two weeks and everyone else plays. If Navy’s RPI was in the Top 20, I would have them as the last team in …
That leaves Fairfield, Cornell, Denver, Bucknell, Ohio State and Syracuse with Top 20 RPIs competing for the last spot. Denver and Bucknell have the best RPI win of the group (Penn State). Cornell and Bucknell are the only two teams with a second quality win. Looking into the other criteria, nothing stands out to trump the 2 QWs from any of the other teams. Since Bucknell has the better two quality wins than Cornell, the Bison look to be the last team. That would leave Cornell, Denver, Fairfield and Syracuse as the first four out.
I freely admit I have been much better at picking who is in and who is out versus actual seedings and match-ups. That said, I am still going to give my best effort at it. Keep in mind that only the top 8 teams are seeded. The committee has the latitude to make any match-ups they want between unseeded and seeded teams they want while keeping conference affiliations and geography/travel considerations in mind.
Here's my best guess:
#1 Loyola v Siena
#2 Duke v UMBC
#3 Notre Dame v Bucknell
#4 UMass v Colgate
#5 UNC v Princeton
#6 Virginia v Villanova
#7 Maryland v Penn State
#8 Lehigh v Johns Hopkins
The current front-runners for their league AQs (if tied, RPI is used as the tiebreaker for the projection)
America East – UMBC (#29 RPI, #36 SOS, QWs – Maryland (5)) UMBC has the best RPI of the three teams currently tied for first in this one-bid league.
Big East –#3 Notre Dame (#3 RPI, #17 SOS, QWs – Duke (2); Villanova (12); Denver (16); Ohio State (18); Drexel (20)) A big week for the Irish. Besides clinching the #1 seed in the Big East tournament, their RPI jumps to #3, Duke becomes a top 5 RPI win and they add Villanova to their list of Top 20 RPI wins.
Colonial –#4 UMass (#4 RPI, #42 SOS, QWs – Penn State (12); Bucknell (17); Ohio State (18); Drexel (20)) UMass continues to have seeding issues based on their lack of top 10 RPI wins. The committee set a precedent in 2009 when they seeded an undefeated Notre Dame #7 using the same criteria. I think I am being generous with the #4 seed but believe the bad losses by UNC (Penn) and Maryland (UMBC) will help the Minutemen. If UMass wins out, it will be an interesting case study for future Bracketologies to see how they are seeded.
ECAC – #1 Loyola (#1 RPI, #18 SOS, QWs – Duke (2); Fairfield (11); Denver (16); Ohio State (18)) With Duke winning the ACC and jumping to #2 in the RPI coupled with the NCAA rewarding the #1 RPI with the #1 seed in past years, it would seem the Greyhounds are the clear #1 seed at the moment.
Ivy – Princeton (#14 RPI, #29 SOS, QWs – Villanova(12)) – The Ivies are looking more and more like a one bid league. The winner of Princeton-Cornell earns the right to host the Ivy Tournament. The loser is going to face an uphill climb to make it in as an at-large.
MAAC – Siena (#33 RPI, #59 SOS, QWs – None) - AQ or bust in this league
Patriot – Colgate (#10 RPI, #26 SOS, QWs - Lehigh (9); Fairfield (11); Bucknell (17)) –All the games between the teams involved in the Patriot Tournament were one-goal affairs. Should be a heck of tournament. If the Red Raiders win the tournament, they will have a good shot at a seed. Also, don't forget the Red Raiders have a season-ending game against a Maryland team they beat last year to solidify their At-Large resume if things do not go their way in Hamilton this weekend.
The following teams look to be in very good shape for at-large bids since each has a top 10 RPI, top 10 SOS and at least 1 top 5 RPI win:
#2 Duke (#2 RPI, #2 SOS, QWs – Maryland (5); Virginia (6); UNC x2 (7); Syracuse (19)) – Duke is the new Syracuse. The Blue Devils gel as the season progresses and seem to peak at the right time the past few years a la Syracuse in the 90s. Winning the ACC jumps their RPI to #2 and gives them an impressive list of wins to put them in position for the #2 seed
#5 North Carolina (#7t RPI, #1 SOS, QWs –Maryland (5); Virginia (6); Johns Hopkins (7); Penn State (12); Princeton (14)) – An impressive lists of wins is counterbalanced by a hard-to-explain loss to a 2-win Penn squad. Balancing the good with the bad and factoring in a potentially undefeated UMass squad for seating, #5 seems about right.
#6 Virginia (#6 RPI, #8 SOS, QWs –Maryland (5); UNC (7); Cornell (15); Ohio State (18); Syracuse (19); Drexel (20) ) – The Cavs are glad the NCAA doesn’t care about the timing of your wins as they stumble down the stretch a little.
#7 Maryland (#5 RPI; #5 SOS, QWs –Duke (2); Johns Hopkins (7); Villanova (12)) – With only 3 top wins and a bad loss to UMBC, the Terps are flirting with not being seeded again.
That leaves 5 at-large spots. There are 4 teams that have resumes that separate them from the rest of the At-Large contenders (Top 20 RPI with at least 3 Top 20 RPI wins including 1 Top 10 RPI win):
#8 Lehigh (#9 RPI, #22 SOS, QWs – UNC (7); Penn State (12); Bucknell (17)) – Every seeded team since 2009 has had a top 10 RPI. In a close call over fellow Patriot League member Colgate and Hopkins, Lehigh looks to have the best case as you look deeper into the criteria – no bad losses and the win against Navy while Colgate and Hopkins both lost to the Midshipmen. If either Lehigh or Colgate wins the Patriot Tournament, they look to have a good shot at a seed if Hopkins loses to Loyola.
Johns Hopkins (#7t RPI, #13 SOS, QWs –Virginia (7); Princeton (14); Syracuse (19)) – Not a great weekend for the Blue Jays. They get humbled by Navy, their win over Virginia is no longer a top 5 win with the Cavs loss in the ACC semis, and they lost Towson as a top 20 RPI win with the Tigers going down to Drexel. All these things drop the Blue Jays out of the seeded teams for the moment. A big match-up with Loyola coming up that could solidify their position in the tournament as a seeded team.
Penn State (#12t RPI, #6 SOS, QWs –Notre Dame (3); Villanova (12); Ohio State (18); Drexel (20)) – The win over Notre Dame keeps looking better and better for the Nittany Lions. If they can move their RPI into the Top 10, they are definite contenders for a seed with their list of wins and SOS.
Villanova (#12t RPI, #10 SOS, QWs – Lehigh (9); Bucknell (17); Syracuse (19); Drexel (20)) – With 3 of their wins toward the back half of the RPI top 20, the Wildcats are in a vulnerable spot. They could lose one or more of these wins in the coming weeks. Also, they could be bumped by a surprise AQ winner that throws a team like Loyola or UMass into the at-large pool.
That leaves the final group of teams competing for the final at-large spot (listed in order of RPI):
Fairfield (#11 RPI, #33 SOS, QWs – Denver (16))
Cornell (#15 RPI, #39 SOS, QWs – Denver (16); Syracuse(19))
Denver (#16 RPI, #3 SOS, QWs – Penn State (12))
Bucknell (#17 RPI, #12 SOS, QWs – Penn State (12); Drexel (20))
Ohio State (#18 RPI, #7 SOS, QWs - Denver (16))
Syracuse (#19 RPI, #4 SOS, QWs – Princeton (14))
Navy (#21 RPI, #27 SOS, QWs – Johns Hopkins (7); Colgate (10))
Georgetown (#22 RPI,#19 SOS, QWs – Syracuse (19))
Yale (#23 RPI; #44 SOS; QWs – none)
Robert Morris (#25 RPI, #46 SOS, QWs – Ohio State (18))
* - it should be noted that #20 Drexel and #24 Hofstra were not included due to having sub .500 records
Since no team outside the top 20 of the RPI has ever made the tournament, that currently eliminates Navy, Georgetown, Yale and Robert Morris. That said, if Navy’s RPI gets into the top 20, they have two impressive wins that could get them in. It will be interesting to see what happens with their numbers as they sit out the next two weeks and everyone else plays. If Navy’s RPI was in the Top 20, I would have them as the last team in …
That leaves Fairfield, Cornell, Denver, Bucknell, Ohio State and Syracuse with Top 20 RPIs competing for the last spot. Denver and Bucknell have the best RPI win of the group (Penn State). Cornell and Bucknell are the only two teams with a second quality win. Looking into the other criteria, nothing stands out to trump the 2 QWs from any of the other teams. Since Bucknell has the better two quality wins than Cornell, the Bison look to be the last team. That would leave Cornell, Denver, Fairfield and Syracuse as the first four out.
I freely admit I have been much better at picking who is in and who is out versus actual seedings and match-ups. That said, I am still going to give my best effort at it. Keep in mind that only the top 8 teams are seeded. The committee has the latitude to make any match-ups they want between unseeded and seeded teams they want while keeping conference affiliations and geography/travel considerations in mind.
Here's my best guess:
#1 Loyola v Siena
#2 Duke v UMBC
#3 Notre Dame v Bucknell
#4 UMass v Colgate
#5 UNC v Princeton
#6 Virginia v Villanova
#7 Maryland v Penn State
#8 Lehigh v Johns Hopkins
