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[QUOTE="jncuse, post: 2092156, member: 1969"]
1) If Wake beats Louisville on it's home court and manages to win one extra ACC tourney game than us, are you that sure we are ahead of them?

2) What if Wake wins at Virginia Tech and win one extra tourney game than Syracuse.  Is that unreasonable?     That's 2 road/neutral wins against our win at home against Georgia Tech.

3) What if Clemson wins it last 3 games (30% chance per Sagarin), and wins one more tourney game than us.    You sure that we are ahead of them because of that one win vs Georgia Tech?

4) What if Vanderbilt wins its next 3 games, including a win at Arkansas.   They then win an SEC game against a team that was close to or already in.   Are you sure that are one win at Georgia Tech is going to lock us in?

5) What if Wichita St loses the MVC tourney?   One spot is stolen.

6) What if TCU, Providence  wins 2 more games to our 1 home win?  Are you sure they are still behind us

There are too many teams with potential to catch us to think it's anywhere close to 95%.   And a team just has to be close to us to bring in "committee judgment" which may not go our way.
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