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Message: [QUOTE="Consigliere, post: 2092474, member: 559"] You're not being rude and maybe I am misinterpreting something but for what it's worth: 22 Leagues look to be 1 bid leagues: American East Atlantic Sun Big Sky Big South Big West WAC Colonial CUSA Horizon Ivy MAAC MAC MEAC Northeast Ohio Valley Patriot Southern Southland SWAC Summit Sun Belt Mountain West 10 leagues below will fill the remaining 46 slots. I'll list locks and near locks then the number of at large bids each have fairly well solidified: American - SMU and Cincy - 1 at large A-10 - VCU and Dayton - 1 ACC - UNC, Louisville, Duke, FSU, Notre Dame, Miami, Va. Tech - 7 Big 12 - Kansas, Baylor, WVU, Oklahoma St, Iowa State - 4 B1G - Wisconsin, Minnesota, Purdue, Maryland, Northwestern - 4 Big East - Butler, Xavier, Villanova, Creighton - 3 Pac-12 - Oregon, Arizona, UCLA - 2 SEC - Florida, Kentucky, S Carolina - 2 West Coast - Gonzaga, St. Mary's - 1 Missouri Valley - Wichita State, Illinois State (?) - 1 Added Illinois State from my first pass so that is a total of 10 automatic and 24 at large brings us to 57 and leaves 11 slots. 19 teams the referenced analysis list as "Work to Do" fighting for those 11: Houston Rhode Island Wake Forest Clemson Georgia Tech Syracuse Pittsburgh TCU Kansas State Seton Hall Providence Marquette Michigan Michigan State USC California Arkansas Vanderbilt Tennessee So are there scenarios where 11 of the other 18 teams end up with a more favorable resume than Syracuse? Not many, especially considering there are more than a couple of games left matching teams in the group of 19 and someone will have to lose! Is there a greater than 5% possibility that some combination of those scenarios and bid stealers come to pass? Maybe, but IMHO not appreciably more. Beat Georgia Tech and we are in. What am I missing? [/QUOTE]

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