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[QUOTE="jncuse, post: 2092509, member: 1969"]
Thanks for laying it out.   Here is where I think the problem is.

1.    Most of those teams have 4 games left minimum and we only have 3 games minimum.    It's not that unfathomable for many of those teams to win 2 games out of 4.   So for those that are close to us, our 1 win against Georgia Tech at home isn't going to pull away from the,,.   Now some are so far behind that 2 wins would not be enough.

2.   If you go by the matrix the following schools are already above us (it's debatable, but let's assume the matrix has the s-curve right).  It will never turn out exactly that way, but if you are assessing probabilities you make some reasonabel assumptions.

So the following are above Syracuse on the matrix, and are all likely to win at least 1 game as well
Arkansas
USC
Michigan St
Marquette
Seton Hall

So let's assume those 5 win at least one game.  So they stay ahead of us.

3.   That leaves 6 spots for the rest.    Here are teams that might be close to us with 2 wins out of the next 4.   Not that unreasonable for any of those teams to win 2 more games.

Wake Forest
TCU
California 
Vanderbilt
Kansas St

(Cal and Vandy probably need 3, but it's a little easier in the P12 and SEC)

4.  1 spot is left.   I am still concerned about Illinois St winning the MVC or being an at-large.   Or maybe Middle Tennessee St being an at-large after losing the CUSA tourney. What about the A-10 or AAC having a different winner.  So let's take away that final open spot due to a bubble buster.

5.  Now there is 0 spots left and we are still not in.  Maybe of one of those other teams which are further behind, wins 4 more games this season including the conference tourney... or 3 games (including one or two real quality wins).  They may jump us as well, if we only beat Georgia tech at Home.

Houston
Rhode Island
Clemson
Georgia Tech
Pittsburgh
Tennessee
Illinois (Added)
Georgetown (Added)
Ole Miss (Added)
Indiana (Added)

Odds are that one of the above group will do something crazy... probably not 2.    So that would put as the 2nd team out.

I don't think any of my assumptions in 2-5 are really unreasonable.   That is why I put it much closer to 50%.
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