SWC75
Bored Historian
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Well, folks, the time has come to fill out your NCAA bracket sheets, If you are like me, you have come to realize that there is no relationship to the amount of time you spend on your sheet and the quality of the results. One year, a friend of mine at work put a sheet on the floor and placed his baby on it. Wherever the kid drooled, that was the pick. I spent three days reading all I could about all the teams before doing my sheet. The kid and I were neck and neck until I passed him in the final four. Now he’s probably all grown up and is as dumb as I am. Another year, I was delighted to go 14-2 the first night. I came to work and found some secretary had gone 16-0. The next day, I went 15-1. I backslid on Saturday at 5-3 but had a 7-1 Sunday for an incredible record of 41-7 after the first weekend, with only 15 games to go. You see ads in the sports magazines for guys bragging about their 70% prediction rate. I was at .854. How could anyone match that? The secretary was at 44-4, (.917). I asked her for her secret. She said she didn't know anything about basketball. She just picked schools based on who she knew who went there, which schools wore her favorite color, etc. Any illusion that I or anyone else knew anything about college basketball disappeared completely.
But it can be liberating to lose your illusions. I was born in the same hospital as Tom Cruise and grew up a couple miles from where he spent the first two years of his life but that's not him in the mirror, so why worry about it? The real challenge is to get a sheet done before noon Thursday. For that you need some kind of a system. Not a fool proof system. Not something that would make you the King of Vegas. Just a system. One way is to look at the percentages.
The NCAA tournament field went to 64 teams in 1985, (the year Villanova won). Since then these are the records of the seeds in the first rounds:
(updated through 2013)
1 vs 16 116-0 1.000%
2 vs 15 109-7 .940%
3 vs 14 99-17 .853%
4 vs 13 90-26 .777%
5 vs 12 75-41 .647%
6 vs 11 77-39 .664%
7 vs 10 70-46 .603%
8 vs 9 57-59 .491%
If you divide the latter, (upset), column by 29, you should pick one 14, one 13, one 12 and one 11 to win and two 10s and 9s. That's 8 upsets in the first round, the average over the years. You can't always go with the averages, however. In 2001 there were 13 upsets, the highest ever, with all the 9's beating all the 8's. The previous year, 2000, there was the lowest ever, only 3 and all the 8's beat all the 9's. In 28 years, there have been between 7 and 9 upsets 16 times. The year we won the title, (2003) there were 8 first round upsets, exactly the historical average. The next year there were half that many. Last year there were 10- One 2, (we no longer stand out as the first 2 seed to lose), One 3, One 4, Three 5s, One 6, One 7 and Two 8 went down. The anomalies are that 9’s have a winning record against 8’s, (as when Oklahoma State beat us in 1999), and that 5’s are more likely to go down in the first round than 6’s. But overall, the seedings hold up pretty well.
If you score well in the first round, you will usually contend the rest of the way because you will have the most teams still alive. Then the question becomes: Who's most likely to make the final four? According to the seeds, there have been:
46 #1 seeds, (including all four in 2008, the only time it’s happened)
26 #2 seeds
14 #3 seeds
13 #4 seeds
6 #5 seeds
3 #6 seeds
0 #7 seeds
4 #8 seeds
1 #9 seed
0 #10 seeds
3 #11 seeds
0 #12, 13, 14 , 15 or 16 seeds.
The chances of a team seeded less than #4 making the final four, (based on a percentage of who made it) are 15%, (only 17 of 116). SU’s Final Four teams were seeded #2, (1987), #4, (1996), #3, (2003) and #4, (2013). There were no seedings in 1975. The national champions have included:
18#1 seeds
4 #2 seeds
4 #3 seeds
1 #4 seed
0 #5 seeds
1 #6 seed (Kansas '88)
0 #7 seeds
1 #8 seed (Villanova '85)
0 below that. (I don't think the play-in games are a real big deal).
There had never been a Final Four with all #1 seeds until 2008: Somebody is likely going down. But, if you are picking less than a #3 seed to go all the way, you are going out on a limb. But you might just be right- about once a decade, (although the last one was Arizona in ’97- 16 years ago).Still, if you want to play it safe, chose a #1 seed.
First Round Upsets
How often do they lead to second round victories? In the 25 years since the field reached 64 teams, there have been the following number of first round upsets, with the following results in later rounds:
16 seeds have never won a game.
15 seeds have won 7 times. All lost by double figures in the next round. Until Florida Gulf Coast, who won in the round of 32 and lost by double figures in the Sweet 16.
14 seeds have won 17 first round games and 2 second round games and none in the Sweet 16.
13 seeds have won 26 first round games, 6 second round games and none in the Sweet 16.
12 seeds have won 41 first round games and 21 second round games. They have won 2 Sweet 16 games. (Last year the only first round Cinderella to win a second round game was a #12 seed.)
11 seeds have won 39 first round games and 16 second round games. They have won 5 Sweet 16 games. They made it to the final four three times . (LSU in 1986, George Mason in 2006 and VCU last year.)
10 seeds have won 46 first round games and 19 in the second round. They have won 5 Sweet 16 games but never made it to the final four.
9 seeds have won 59 first round games. All it has gotten them is 57 dates with #1 seeds. They have won exactly 5 of those and 2 games in the sweet 16. Wichita State in 2013 became the first #9 seed to win in the Elite 8 and get to the Final Four where they gave Louisville fits before losing 68-72.
If you go with percentages, pick 2 nine seeds to upset eight seeds but that's as far as they go. Also pick two 10 seeds to win in the first round. Give one of the winners a trip to the sweet 16 but that’s it. Pick one each of the 11, 12, 13 and 14 seeds to win and have the 12th seed get to the sweet 16. They will stop there. In the Final Four you could go with two 1 seeds, a 2 seed and a 3 or 4 seed. Or you might want to pick a lower seed just for fun, (maybe an 8 or 11 seed?).
Oh, you want to know WHICH upsets will take place? Beats me! That's the problem, and the delight. Some observaitons that might help- or might not:
- I tend to steer away from "hot" teams to win it all because they will have to maintain their level of play for three weeks against increasingly tough competition. The championship team is usually a team that gets hot in the tournament, not one that was already hot when it started. Sometimes, they are just "survive and advancers", who don't blow anyone away but have bottomed out at the right time and get better as the opposition gets better. (Of course “bottoming out” teams are more vulnerable in the early rounds than the hot teams, so watch out!)
- Don't base decisions on coach's reputations. Bobby Knight has won three national titles and gone out in the first round 9 times. Lute Olson won a national title and has gone one and done 10 times. Tom Izzo has been to 6 Final Fours. But he’s gone out in the first round 4 times. Jim Beoehim is 4 and 5. Jimmy Valvano and Rollie Massimino had one good run a piece and became “legends”. The players play the game, not the coaches.
- I think match-ups are critical. Not just individual match-ups but team match-ups. We all know what physical teams can do to finesse teams. I like zone teams or teams with great shot-blockers vs. teams with no outside game. I like teams that press or use man-to-man vs. a team with a shaky point guard. I like teams with two good big men over a team with one. Look at guard play first, the front line second. But if guard play is similar, go with the taller team. Upsets are more likely to occur between teams with different styles. When teams mirror each other, pick the higher seeded one. A "mid major", (are there "low majors" anymore?), will be more likely to pull off an upset if they've been strong all year than if they got hot in their tournament. Actually, you can avoid Cinderella conference tournament winners: they've shot their bolt.
- The numbers suggest that the most efficient offensive teams go the farthest and you’ve got to score. But defense still wins championships. Avoid teams that are just out-scoring their opposition. They might pull off an upset but not they aren’t winning 6 in a row.
- You may hate the "power conferences" but when the Final Four comes, that's where the teams have traditionally come from, although that shows signs of changing with George Mason, VCU, Butler, Wichita State, etc. But if you are going to pick a Cinderella, make sure you don’t wind up with an Ugly Step Sister instead.
Or you can just drool. That might work...
Bon appetit.
But it can be liberating to lose your illusions. I was born in the same hospital as Tom Cruise and grew up a couple miles from where he spent the first two years of his life but that's not him in the mirror, so why worry about it? The real challenge is to get a sheet done before noon Thursday. For that you need some kind of a system. Not a fool proof system. Not something that would make you the King of Vegas. Just a system. One way is to look at the percentages.
The NCAA tournament field went to 64 teams in 1985, (the year Villanova won). Since then these are the records of the seeds in the first rounds:
(updated through 2013)
1 vs 16 116-0 1.000%
2 vs 15 109-7 .940%
3 vs 14 99-17 .853%
4 vs 13 90-26 .777%
5 vs 12 75-41 .647%
6 vs 11 77-39 .664%
7 vs 10 70-46 .603%
8 vs 9 57-59 .491%
If you divide the latter, (upset), column by 29, you should pick one 14, one 13, one 12 and one 11 to win and two 10s and 9s. That's 8 upsets in the first round, the average over the years. You can't always go with the averages, however. In 2001 there were 13 upsets, the highest ever, with all the 9's beating all the 8's. The previous year, 2000, there was the lowest ever, only 3 and all the 8's beat all the 9's. In 28 years, there have been between 7 and 9 upsets 16 times. The year we won the title, (2003) there were 8 first round upsets, exactly the historical average. The next year there were half that many. Last year there were 10- One 2, (we no longer stand out as the first 2 seed to lose), One 3, One 4, Three 5s, One 6, One 7 and Two 8 went down. The anomalies are that 9’s have a winning record against 8’s, (as when Oklahoma State beat us in 1999), and that 5’s are more likely to go down in the first round than 6’s. But overall, the seedings hold up pretty well.
If you score well in the first round, you will usually contend the rest of the way because you will have the most teams still alive. Then the question becomes: Who's most likely to make the final four? According to the seeds, there have been:
46 #1 seeds, (including all four in 2008, the only time it’s happened)
26 #2 seeds
14 #3 seeds
13 #4 seeds
6 #5 seeds
3 #6 seeds
0 #7 seeds
4 #8 seeds
1 #9 seed
0 #10 seeds
3 #11 seeds
0 #12, 13, 14 , 15 or 16 seeds.
The chances of a team seeded less than #4 making the final four, (based on a percentage of who made it) are 15%, (only 17 of 116). SU’s Final Four teams were seeded #2, (1987), #4, (1996), #3, (2003) and #4, (2013). There were no seedings in 1975. The national champions have included:
18#1 seeds
4 #2 seeds
4 #3 seeds
1 #4 seed
0 #5 seeds
1 #6 seed (Kansas '88)
0 #7 seeds
1 #8 seed (Villanova '85)
0 below that. (I don't think the play-in games are a real big deal).
There had never been a Final Four with all #1 seeds until 2008: Somebody is likely going down. But, if you are picking less than a #3 seed to go all the way, you are going out on a limb. But you might just be right- about once a decade, (although the last one was Arizona in ’97- 16 years ago).Still, if you want to play it safe, chose a #1 seed.
First Round Upsets
How often do they lead to second round victories? In the 25 years since the field reached 64 teams, there have been the following number of first round upsets, with the following results in later rounds:
16 seeds have never won a game.
15 seeds have won 7 times. All lost by double figures in the next round. Until Florida Gulf Coast, who won in the round of 32 and lost by double figures in the Sweet 16.
14 seeds have won 17 first round games and 2 second round games and none in the Sweet 16.
13 seeds have won 26 first round games, 6 second round games and none in the Sweet 16.
12 seeds have won 41 first round games and 21 second round games. They have won 2 Sweet 16 games. (Last year the only first round Cinderella to win a second round game was a #12 seed.)
11 seeds have won 39 first round games and 16 second round games. They have won 5 Sweet 16 games. They made it to the final four three times . (LSU in 1986, George Mason in 2006 and VCU last year.)
10 seeds have won 46 first round games and 19 in the second round. They have won 5 Sweet 16 games but never made it to the final four.
9 seeds have won 59 first round games. All it has gotten them is 57 dates with #1 seeds. They have won exactly 5 of those and 2 games in the sweet 16. Wichita State in 2013 became the first #9 seed to win in the Elite 8 and get to the Final Four where they gave Louisville fits before losing 68-72.
If you go with percentages, pick 2 nine seeds to upset eight seeds but that's as far as they go. Also pick two 10 seeds to win in the first round. Give one of the winners a trip to the sweet 16 but that’s it. Pick one each of the 11, 12, 13 and 14 seeds to win and have the 12th seed get to the sweet 16. They will stop there. In the Final Four you could go with two 1 seeds, a 2 seed and a 3 or 4 seed. Or you might want to pick a lower seed just for fun, (maybe an 8 or 11 seed?).
Oh, you want to know WHICH upsets will take place? Beats me! That's the problem, and the delight. Some observaitons that might help- or might not:
- I tend to steer away from "hot" teams to win it all because they will have to maintain their level of play for three weeks against increasingly tough competition. The championship team is usually a team that gets hot in the tournament, not one that was already hot when it started. Sometimes, they are just "survive and advancers", who don't blow anyone away but have bottomed out at the right time and get better as the opposition gets better. (Of course “bottoming out” teams are more vulnerable in the early rounds than the hot teams, so watch out!)
- Don't base decisions on coach's reputations. Bobby Knight has won three national titles and gone out in the first round 9 times. Lute Olson won a national title and has gone one and done 10 times. Tom Izzo has been to 6 Final Fours. But he’s gone out in the first round 4 times. Jim Beoehim is 4 and 5. Jimmy Valvano and Rollie Massimino had one good run a piece and became “legends”. The players play the game, not the coaches.
- I think match-ups are critical. Not just individual match-ups but team match-ups. We all know what physical teams can do to finesse teams. I like zone teams or teams with great shot-blockers vs. teams with no outside game. I like teams that press or use man-to-man vs. a team with a shaky point guard. I like teams with two good big men over a team with one. Look at guard play first, the front line second. But if guard play is similar, go with the taller team. Upsets are more likely to occur between teams with different styles. When teams mirror each other, pick the higher seeded one. A "mid major", (are there "low majors" anymore?), will be more likely to pull off an upset if they've been strong all year than if they got hot in their tournament. Actually, you can avoid Cinderella conference tournament winners: they've shot their bolt.
- The numbers suggest that the most efficient offensive teams go the farthest and you’ve got to score. But defense still wins championships. Avoid teams that are just out-scoring their opposition. They might pull off an upset but not they aren’t winning 6 in a row.
- You may hate the "power conferences" but when the Final Four comes, that's where the teams have traditionally come from, although that shows signs of changing with George Mason, VCU, Butler, Wichita State, etc. But if you are going to pick a Cinderella, make sure you don’t wind up with an Ugly Step Sister instead.
Or you can just drool. That might work...
Bon appetit.
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