NCAA tournament bubble watch | Syracusefan.com

NCAA tournament bubble watch

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Alsacs

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We know there are 68 berths.
32 automatic 36 at-larges.

These 31 teams from 10 conferences are making the tournament.
Alabama
Arizona
Arizona State
Auburn
Butler
Cincinnati
Clemson
Creighton
Duke
Florida
Florida State
Gonzaga
Kansas
Kentucky
Michigan
Michigan State
Nevada
North Carolina
Ohio State
Purdue
Rhode Island
Seton Hall
St. Mary’s
Tennessee
Texas A&M
Texas Tech
Villanova
Virginia
West Virginia
Wichita State
Xavier

22 other conferences will get 1 bid.
22 + 31 = 53 bids taken
That means we have 15 bids left for.

Arkansas
Baylor
Boise State
Houston
Kansas State
Louisville
Marquette
Miami
Mississippi State
Missouri
Nebraska
NC State
Notre Dame
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Penn State
Providence
St. Bonaventure
Syracuse
Texas
TCU
Virginia Tech
Washington
UCLA
USC

25 teams for 15 bids.

Looking at this I realize we have a better chance than most realize.
Now these 15 bids will decrease with bid stealers.
I think we can make the top 15 of these teams.

Note: I am doing this on the top of my head if I missed a team I will amend. Or if my math is off. With that said we are in pretty good shape/
 
Last edited:
Cant wait till Boeheim’s march through greensboro
 
A few adjustments.

1. There are 32 conferences with at larges... I can’t tell you when it became 32, but it happened a few years ago. I used to do the same mistake.

So I think that makes it 15 spots not 16.

Removed Nevada adjustment comment, since you are already assuming they will not be the team that wins.
 
Alsacs said:
We know there are 68 berths.
31 automatic 37 at-larges.

These 30 teams from 9 conferences are making the tournament.
Alabama
Arizona
Arizona State
Auburn
Butler
Cincinnati
Clemson
Creighton
Duke
Florida
Florida State
Gonzaga
Kansas
Kentucky
Michigan
Michigan State
North Carolina
Ohio State
Purdue
Rhode Island
Seton Hall
St. Mary’s
Tennessee
Texas A&M
Texas Tech
Villanova
Virginia
West Virginia
Wichita State
Xavier

22 other conferences will get 1 bid.
22 + 30 = 52 bids taken
That means we have 16 bids left for.

Arkansas
Baylor
Boise State
Houston
Kansas State
Louisville
Marquette
Miami
Mississippi State
Missouri
Nevada if they lose the MWC
Nebraska
NC State
Notre Dame
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Penn State
Providence
St. Bonaventure
Syracuse
Texas
TCU
Virginia Tech
Washington
UCLA
USC

26 teams for 16 bids.

Looking at this I realize we have a better chance than most realize.
Now these 16 bids will decrease with bid stealers.
I think we can make the top 16 of these teams.

Note: I am doing this on the top of my head if I missed a team I will amend. Or if my math is off. With that said we are in pretty good shape/
Expand...
There’s a terrific thread already going that’s been going over this stuff in great depth.

Mods - maybe merge this one into that ‘Bracket Matrix’ one?
 
Alsacs said:
That means we have 16 19 bids left for...
Expand...
Last season I did something similar to below and it helped me to hit on 67 of 68 tourney teams going into the Selection Show. My one miss - I had Syracuse in, the committee had USC in. I'll add more detail as the Tourney gets closer, as it's tough to really rank them too accurately by just this criteria.

Using Alsac's bubble teams (plus Alabama, Seton Hall, and Saint Mary's because I don't consider them locks at this point)...

Sagarin/KenPom/BPI = Average...Record vs. Quadrant 1

1. Houston - 28/19/20 = 22.3...5-3
2. TCU - 17/22/18 = 19.0...4-7
3. Alabama - 44/42/44 = 43.3...6-5
4. Arkansas - 26/44/40 = 36.7...5-8
5. Missouri - 41/41/47 = 43.0...5-7
6. Miami - 33/39/32 = 34.7...4-5
7. Nevada - 39/18/21 = 26.0...2-2
8. Virginia Tech - 42/35/28 = 35.0...4-5
9. Baylor - 18/37/36 = 30.3...4-9
10. Oklahoma - 43/43/41 = 42.3...6-8
11. Texas - 36/40/38 = 38.0...5-8
12. Seton Hall - 37/38/37 = 37.3...3-6
13. Louisville - 21/32/31 = 28.0...2-7
14. Penn State - 38/25/26 = 29.7...2-5
15. Notre Dame - 27/33/32 = 30.7...2-6
16. Saint Mary's - 35/21/19 = 25.0...1-0
17. NC State - 51/47/51 = 49.7...5-6
18. Marquette - 49/50/48 = 49.0...4-8
19. Kansas State - 45/49/49 = 47.7...3-7

*20. Syracuse - 48/45/50 = 47.7...2-5
21. St. Bonaventure - 53/63/55 = 57.0...3-2
22. Providence - 45/69/74 = 62.7...5-6
23. USC - 51/53/53 = 52.3...2-5
24. UCLA - 47/52/59 = 52.7...2-4
25. Mississippi State - 59/46/54 = 53.0...2-6
26. Nebraska - 64/56/60 = 60.0...1-6
27. Oklahoma State - 57/75/79 = 70.3...3-10
28. Boise State - 61/58/58 = 59.0 ...0-2
29. Washington - 93/96/114 = 101.0...5-3

* I swear having Syracuse as the last team out was completely unintentional.
 
orangenirvana said:
Last season I did something similar to below and it helped me to hit on 67 of 68 tourney teams going into the Selection Show. My one miss - I had Syracuse in, the committee had USC in. I'll add more detail as the Tourney gets closer, as it's tough to really rank them too accurately by just this criteria.

Using Alsac's bubble teams (plus Alabama, Seton Hall, and Saint Mary's because I don't consider them locks at this point)...

Sagarin/KenPom/BPI = Average...Record vs. Quadrant 1

1. Houston - 28/19/20 = 22.3...5-3
2. TCU - 17/22/18 = 19.0...4-7
3. Alabama - 44/42/44 = 43.3...6-5
4. Arkansas - 26/44/40 = 36.7...5-8
5. Missouri - 41/41/47 = 43.0...5-7
6. Miami - 33/39/32 = 34.7...4-5
7. Nevada - 39/18/21 = 26.0...2-2
8. Virginia Tech - 42/35/28 = 35.0...4-5
9. Baylor - 18/37/36 = 30.3...4-9
10. Oklahoma - 43/43/41 = 42.3...6-8
11. Texas - 36/40/38 = 38.0...5-8
12. Seton Hall - 37/38/37 = 37.3...3-6
13. Louisville - 21/32/31 = 28.0...2-7
14. Penn State - 38/25/26 = 29.7...2-5
15. Notre Dame - 27/33/32 = 30.7...2-6
16. Saint Mary's - 35/21/19 = 25.0...1-0
17. NC State - 51/47/51 = 49.7...5-6
18. Marquette - 49/50/48 = 49.0...4-8
19. Kansas State - 45/49/49 = 47.7...3-7

*20. Syracuse - 48/45/50 = 47.7...2-5
21. St. Bonaventure - 53/63/55 = 57.0...3-2
22. Providence - 45/69/74 = 62.7...5-6
23. USC - 51/53/53 = 52.3...2-5
24. UCLA - 47/52/59 = 52.7...2-4
25. Mississippi State - 59/46/54 = 53.0...2-6
26. Nebraska - 64/56/60 = 60.0...1-6
27. Oklahoma State - 57/75/79 = 70.3...3-10
28. Boise State - 61/58/58 = 59.0 ...0-2
29. Washington - 93/96/114 = 101.0...5-3

* I swear having Syracuse as the last team out was completely unintentional.
Expand...

I don't mean to nit-pick and also understand there is some wood left to chop but I don't see ND getting into the tournament unless they make a very big run through the ACCT. Also think Marquette is on shaky ground as well.

I'd put The Bonnies and UCLA ahead of those two.

If Nebraska wins at home against PSU they will be 13-5 in the B1G. I know their resume is not impressive and their league is down but that would be pretty shocking to see a team in a power conference with a 13-5 record get left out.
 
bpo57 said:
I don't mean to nit-pick and also understand there is some wood left to chop but I don't see ND getting into the tournament unless they make a very big run through the ACCT. Also think Marquette is on shaky ground as well.

I'd put The Bonnies and UCLA ahead of those two.

If Nebraska wins at home against PSU they will be 13-5 in the B1G. I know their resume is not impressive and their league is down but that would be pretty shocking to see a team in a power conference with a 13-5 record get left out.
Expand...
Yeah I don't know why Notre Dame's computer ratings are so good. And I'm surprised to see Nebraska have such a good conference record.
 
GardenOrange said:
Is Texas A&M a lock? Creighton?
Expand...
Not so sure about 'locks' but I'd put them both between TCU and Alabama at this point...

Creighton - 19/35/25 = 26.3...3-7
Texas A&M - 22/34/39 = 31.7...5-8
 
I hate that St. Mary's consistently games the RPI (and other advanced metrics, by extension) because instead of scheduling the absolute bottom feeders of the world, they beat up on the teams 1 tier higher. Look at their schedule and tell me what they've done to earn a spot in the discussion or the top 25, for that matter. They got themselves ranked by not losing to bad teams. That's it. Very annoying.
 
I agree about merging the threads.

That said, Jerry Palm has Butler as one of the last two teams in the field. A PiG against SU. So not sure lock status applies.
 
PoppyHart said:
I agree about merging the threads.

That said, Jerry Palm has Butler as one of the last two teams in the field. A PiG against SU. So not sure lock status applies.
Expand...

I actually disagree about merging the threads, but no big deal really ... whatever the mods decide is best for the board.

I know Alsacs takes more time comparing resumes in details between teams then I have in the past. I suspect that is where this thread will shoot off to and some good and different insights will come up.

My thread is more trying to provide information on games to watch, weekend schedules, matrix updates, and really just comment on current games. Two different approaches.
 
jncuse said:
I actually disagree about merging the threads, but no big deal really ... whatever the mods decide is best for the board.

I know Alsacs takes more time comparing resumes in details between teams then I have in the past. I suspect that is where this thread will shoot off to and some good and different insights will come up.

My thread is more trying to provide information on games to watch, weekend schedules, matrix updates, and really just comment on current games. Two different approaches.
Expand...
I hear ya - but I guarantee each will end up being the same types of posts/info but in 2 different spots and thus harder to follow
 
20Plus said:
We know there are 68 berths.
32 automatic 36 at-larges.

The
***Alabama
Arizona
Arizona State
Auburn
Butler
Cincinnati
Clemson
***Creighton
Duke
***Florida
Florida State
Gonzaga
Kansas
Kentucky
Michigan
Michigan State
Nevada
North Carolina
Ohio State
Purdue
Rhode Island
****Seton Hall
St. Mary’s
Tennessee
******Texas A&M
Texas Tech
Villanova
Virginia
West Virginia
Wichita State
Xavier

22 other conferences will get 1 bid.
22 + 31 = 53 bids taken
That means we have 15 bids left for.

Arkansas
Baylor
*Boise State- no
Houston- in
Kansas State
*Louisville-out
Marquette
Miami
Mississippi State
Missouri-out losing to Ole miss
Nebraska
NC State
Notre Dame
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State-still
Penn State
Providence
St. Bonaventure
Syracuse
Texas- out
TCU
Virginia Tech
Washington
UCLA
USC

20 open spots
Expand...
lol neither Texas or Missouri are “out”
 
We know there are 68 berths.
32 automatic 36 at-larges.

The
***Alabama
Arizona
Arizona State
Auburn
Butler
Cincinnati
Clemson
***Creighton
Duke
***Florida
Florida State
Gonzaga
Kansas
Kentucky
Michigan
Michigan State
Nevada
North Carolina
Ohio State
Purdue
Rhode Island
****Seton Hall
St. Mary’s
Tennessee
Texas A&M
Texas Tech
Villanova
Virginia
West Virginia
Wichita State
Xavier

22 other conferences will get 1 bid.
22 + 31 = 53 bids taken
That means we have 15 bids left for.

Arkansas
Baylor
Boise State
Houston
Kansas State
Louisville
Marquette
Miami
Mississippi State
Missouri
Nebraska
NC State
Notre Dame
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Penn State
Providence
St. Bonaventure
Syracuse
Texas
TCU
Virginia Tech
Washington
UCLA
USC

25 teams for 15 bids.

Looking at this I realize we have a better chance than most realize.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
I'm assuming we would rather Florida State beat NC State in the current ACC game being played.
 
Briancuse said:
We lost to them both not sure it matters.
Expand...
It's moot now because NC State is embarrassing Florida State but despite having some nice wins, NCSU's computer ratings are lacking. It would have been nice to see them lose two of their last three then be one-and-out in the ACCT.
 
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