NCAA Tourney Tracker - March 9 to March 11

[jncuse]

Not too much happening over the next 3 days. Some teams start on Wednesday.

Here is current bubble per the bracket matrix. I think everyone above Arizona St on the matrix has locked a bid no matter what happens this week.

Team / % in / Avg Seed
- I view the low risk teams as probably being safe even if they lose their first game. But they probably do not want to risk it.

Low Risk Bubble Teams
8th Last In - Arizona St - 94% (9.98)
7th Last In - Indiana - 97% (10.26)
6th Last in - Texas Tech - 97% (10.32)
High Risk Bubble Team,
5th Last in - Xavier - 94% (10.67)
4th Last in - Stanford - 81% (10.99)
3rd Last In - Wichita St - 68% (10.55)
2nd Last In - Richmond - 75% (11.05)
Last in - Cincinnati - 69% (11.26)
Currently Out - Less Work Needed to get In, maybe...
First Out - UCLA - 38%
Second Out - Texas - 35%
Third Out - NC St - 31%
Currently Out - Signifcant Work needed
Fourth Out - Miss St - 8%
Fifth Out - Northern Iowa - 8%
Sixth Out - Purdue - 5%


The bubble really comes down to selecting P5 teams or teams in the stronger mid-majors (American, A-10) The American and A-10 are probably the most interesting tourney's this weekend in terms of bubble busters.

Nothing really happened today. Since Gonzaga will face St. Mary's for the WCC Championship, the WCC will not have a bubble buster as expected

 

[jncuse]

Really nothing of significance happened today.

Gonzaga beat St. Mary's, but both teams are locks and their current seedings were not impacted by this result

 

[jncuse]

Things start to happen Wednesday

NC St is the third team out (around 30% in) Avoid a bad loss and they would not be in the per the matrix, but they are at the level where they can be a surprise pick to get in. But to feel like they have a decent chance (above 40% in) on Sunday I think they will need to also take out Virginia as well. Only way they can feel really safe is if they somehow made the ACC Final.

If Okie St makes the Big12 final they are one of the long shots that can built a decent resume over the week that takes them from off the radar to in. Will be tough however.

 

[jncuse]

Indiana's average seed on the matrix is 10.24
A bad loss here, followed by a few bubble busters and they will not be sleeping well on Sunday.

Similar situation as Indiana, although they are probably even more exposed with a bad loss. They are about 80% on the matrix however with an average seed of just 11.00. So Indiana might be more able to suffer a bad loss.

 

[jncuse]

Very similar situation to Stanford above. Lose this game and they are in trouble, and may end up 50/50 to get in depending on how the week breaks/

 

[jncuse]

So essentially tomorrow you have 4 teams right around the bubble line that are playing Q3 teams.

They are all what I call conference tourney nuisance games.
If you win they do nothing to improve your resume.
But if you lose they really hurt you resume

 

[jncuse]

Joe Lunardi just put the kiss of death on NC St.
Locked them in after their win today.
It's possible they get in, but to state a lock sets him up to look stupid once again.

 

[jncuse]

Oklahoma St plays Kansas tomorrow. If they win they become a legit threat to possibly steal an at-large this week. But no win, no chance.

 

[jncuse]

And here come what are likely my last updates for the season.

Terrible loss for Xavier, who may have slipped out of the NCAA Tournament, if played with this one.

 

[jncuse]

Indiana I think might be a lock after this one... BUT FRED HOIBERG!

If Fred Hoiberg has CoronaVirus, Indiana probably has to go in self quarantine. So they would not be ready to play next week.

 

[jncuse]

Similar to Xavier, Stanford might be really exposed right now.

 

[jncuse]

And Finally, the largest bubble item right now -- the NCAA Tournament itself.

I expect that needle to pop the bubble tomorrow , and it will not be a bad decision.