Nerds With Headsets, Now on a Sideline Near You... | Syracusefan.com

Nerds With Headsets, Now on a Sideline Near You...

Scooch

Scooch

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But perhaps the most interesting detail of simulating the regular season is one that could have massive implications going forward: the presence of the team's recently hired Director of Analytics, Mitch Tanney, near Kubiak during game-simulation portions of practice.

"If we're moving the ball or we're doing formatting, I've got Mitch with me because he's going to be on the headset, so we're trying to practice," Kubiak said.

With Tanney nearby, Kubiak can receive a quick report on the statistical probabilities of almost any situation. Say that you have fourth-and-3 from the opponent's 45-yard-line with four minutes to go. Do the large-sample-size percentages make the risk-reward ratio acceptable enough to go for it? Tanney's analytics can provide insight to aid Kubiak's decision-making.
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http://deadspin.com/the-broncos-wil...source=deadspin_twitter&utm_medium=socialflow

http://www.denverbroncos.com/news-a...d-timing/8201b580-e1e0-44ba-902b-cadbc148e794
 
Shafer needs this and advice on timeout usage. 2 areas were unnecessary mistakes were made throughout last season.
 
Nerds with Headsets?? i think theyre playing Irving Plaza next monday...

eventually its just gonna be about assembling the best paper roster and then playing it out on madden.

the playstation nation will have won and ill be trolling the london times chess page...
 
KaiserUEO said:
Nerds with Headsets?? i think theyre playing Irving Plaza next monday...

eventually its just gonna be about assembling the best paper roster and then playing it out on madden.

the playstation nation will have won and ill be trolling the london times chess page...
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Nah, there's so much low hanging fruit to exploit (to use a horrible business cliche). Making sure a coach knows basic stats around 4th down attempts, etc. is just great supplemental information. And making sure there's someone on-staff dedicated to sharing that data in real time is very smart -- coaches are totally overwhelmed during the game as it is.

Using analytics more, and more intelligently, is something that could differentiate SU. We desperately need to find areas of innovation that we can take advantage of as we did in the 80s and 90s.
 
I don't know how many categories he'd like to break the percentages down into, but, a good coach you'd think would know this without having a statistician in the booth. I've seen coaches who laminate cards with various percentages on them if they have trouble remembering. If Kubiak needs a guy in the booth to tell him how to make his decisions, there's literally 6 billion people who can read.
 
Say that you have fourth-and-3 from the opponent's 45-yard-line with four minutes to go. Do the large-sample-size percentages make the risk-reward ratio acceptable enough to go for it?

They pay someone to make those decisions? Its almost always better to go for it.

And since coaches already knew it was worth risk/reward but have been too scared to buck the trend - why are they going to change because they now have a nerd on the sideline saying its worth it?
 
What's awesome is there's really no reason this person needs to be located on the sideline.
 
Scooch said:
Nah, there's so much low hanging fruit to exploit (to use a horrible business cliche). Making sure a coach knows basic stats around 4th down attempts, etc. is just great supplemental information. And making sure there's someone on-staff dedicated to sharing that data in real time is very smart -- coaches are totally overwhelmed during the game as it is.

Using analytics more, and more intelligently, is something that could differentiate SU. We desperately need to find areas of innovation that we can take advantage of as we did in the 80s and 90s.
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one thing i love about all these analytics discoveries is how often they match what used to be thought of as the uninformed crowd of fans

think of hockey fans yelling SHOOT. hockey guys hate that. guess what? teams that shoot more than other teams win. hockey's a stupid game with lots of ugly goals of @sses. SHOOT is the right strategy.

football fans have booed bad punts forever. tv guys goofed on them. lo and behold they were right

wisdom of crowds
 
i dont think it works in football.

the game isnt played in a vacuum.

you would have to get really specific with the situation #s in order to accurately give a probability.

time in game. vet or no vet qb. all world DL. shlitty OL. rain? wind? ice? etc...
 
KaiserUEO said:
i dont think it works in football.

the game isnt played in a vacuum.

you would have to get really specific with the situation #s in order to accurately give a probability.

time in game. vet or no vet qb. all world DL. shlitty OL. rain? wind? ice? etc...
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Nah. Just go meathead the other way. *** IT, NEVER PUNT
 
KaiserUEO said:
i dont think it works in football. the game isnt played in a vacuum. you would have to get really specific with the situation #s in order to accurately give a probability. time in game. vet or no vet qb. all world DL. shlitty OL. rain? wind? ice? etc...
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You let the perfect be the enemy of the good. Ideally you combine overall stats with wise judgment. But it isn't like coaches are considering any of that. We can all predict what they'll do
 
I wonder how this type of person would have effected the Bills-Broncos game in Denver last year.

Having an analytic coach makes a lot of sense. They would factor in your offense/defense against the opponents well with TOs/time really good for a HC.
 
If Kubiak actually listens to the guy, the Broncos will have a huge competitive advantage.
 
KaiserUEO said:
i dont think it works in football.

the game isnt played in a vacuum.

you would have to get really specific with the situation #s in order to accurately give a probability.

time in game. vet or no vet qb. all world DL. shlitty OL. rain? wind? ice? etc...
Expand...

Nothing happens in a vacuum. Not sports, business, politics, science, etc.

All of those variables can be accounted for, assuming there's enough sample. Data helps.

But no one, even a complete data geek like myself, would suggest that decisions should be made by blind adherence to "stats". That's a false dichotomy, "experience" vs. data, and one that drives me nuts. You use data to make better decisions, you use the blend of science *and* art.

In other words, you don't dismantle the scouting department in a baseball team, you use analytics to help them do their job better.

Hell, you're a Yankees fan, you should know that they were using analytics to emphasize plate patience in the mid-90s -- they used data to find the Paul O'Neill's and Scott Brosius's.
 
Finwad32 said:
I don't know how many categories he'd like to break the percentages down into, but, a good coach you'd think would know this without having a statistician in the booth. I've seen coaches who laminate cards with various percentages on them if they have trouble remembering. If Kubiak needs a guy in the booth to tell him how to make his decisions, there's literally 6 billion people who can read.
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Coaches have to process farrrrr too much during a game. They've made football more complicated than just about anything in any field of life. It's insane.

Having a guy to remind the HC that statistically it's stupid to do something can only help.
 
Scooch said:
Nothing happens in a vacuum. Not sports, business, politics, science, etc.

All of those variables can be accounted for, assuming there's enough sample. Data helps.

But no one, even a complete data geek like myself, would suggest that decisions should be made by blind adherence to "stats". That's a false dichotomy, "experience" vs. data, and one that drives me nuts. You use data to make better decisions, you use the blend of science *and* art.

In other words, you don't dismantle the scouting department in a baseball team, you use analytics to help them do their job better.

Hell, you're a Yankees fan, you should know that they were using analytics to emphasize plate patience in the mid-90s -- they used data to find the Paul O'Neill's and Scott Brosius's.
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And before the mid-90s, I don't think Donnie Baseball swung at a first pitch his entire career.
 
Scooch said:
Nothing happens in a vacuum. Not sports, business, politics, science, etc. All of those variables can be accounted for, assuming there's enough sample. Data helps. But no one, even a complete data geek like myself, would suggest that decisions should be made by blind adherence to "stats". That's a false dichotomy, "experience" vs. data, and one that drives me nuts. You use data to make better decisions, you use the blend of science *and* art. In other words, you don't dismantle the scouting department in a baseball team, you use analytics to help them do their job better. Hell, you're a Yankees fan, you should know that they were using analytics to emphasize plate patience in the mid-90s -- they used data to find the Paul O'Neill's and Scott Brosius's.
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For every bad o line good d line there should be a good o line bad d line. But the results are biased in one way. Even kaiser knows this.

And analytics can give a break even number to back into , then you judge the variables and compare to the hurdle
 
Alsacs said:
I wonder how this type of person would have effected the Bills-Broncos game in Denver last year.

Having an analytic coach makes a lot of sense. They would factor in your offense/defense against the opponents well with TOs/time really good for a HC.
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As a Bills fan, I can guarantee we would have still found a way to lose!
 
Toga said:
And before the mid-90s, I don't think Donnie Baseball swung at a first pitch his entire career.
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True, although Mattingly's walk rates were actually fairly pedestrian.

Plate patience became an organizational philosophy, essentially. Find patient hitters who work counts and get on base, wear out starting pitchers, and exploit weaker bullpen arms later in games.
 
Millhouse said:
one thing i love about all these analytics discoveries is how often they match what used to be thought of as the uninformed crowd of fans

think of hockey fans yelling SHOOT. hockey guys hate that. guess what? teams that shoot more than other teams win. hockey's a stupid game with lots of ugly goals of @sses. SHOOT is the right strategy.

football fans have booed bad punts forever. tv guys goofed on them. lo and behold they were right

wisdom of crowds
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actually the shooting stats show that shots in hockey can be a bad thing.. its more important when you take the shots than to just take shots. bad shots lead to goals just like bad throws lead to INTs.
 
I get it and got it for baseball a while ago, sat through more 9 inning 4.5 hour games at both Fenway and the Stadium then I'll ever remember, but with football it HAS to be more specific,

To that end, it probably can be since we are only talking a max of 16 games a season per team as opposed to 162, but again it's football, there is something to be said about imposing your will. A roided up Bonds or Papi at their peak, still couldn't meet the ball at the fence and shove it over.

I see a place for it, but if QBs can throw a 30yd out with their eyes closed based on the # of steps they take i think most teams already have these stats in place and relayed over headsets.
 
KaiserUEO said:
I see a place for it, but if QBs can throw a 30yd out with their eyes closed based on the # of steps they take i think most teams already have these stats in place and relayed over headsets.
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One would think that, but look how long it took baseball teams to realize "the shift" works against almost everyone, not just Ted Williams.
 
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