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Message: [QUOTE="jncuse, post: 4889260, member: 1969"] 1. Yes I listened to the interview. 2. Yes he uses look back models as he claims, including the last ranking to build a starting point. I never disputed that. I also don't put much faith in his preseason rankings, or really anybody's in the new NCAA. Or any team's KP for at least the first 5 games. 3. He claimed in his interview that pre-season predictions can alter things significantly for 5 and even up to 10 games. (which I showed above in my Wyoming 2011 example from the linked article) Although for Syracuse 2023/24 the ranking is largely our current season ranking (See below) 4. He did not in that interview or ever claimed the preseasons ranking impact the ranking at season end. Provide me a link or timestamp in the interview where he has ever said that. KP is pretty open about the general parameters of his system 5. Did you read this link? [URL unfurl="true"]https://kenpom.com/blog/preseason-ratings-why-weight/[/URL] - KP runs a system as of December 24, 2011, that is only based on current season data without preseason impact. He can run that system at any time moving forward without any pre-season impact. And its this system that gives you your final rank ... no preseason weight - He then chooses adjust that number by weigh the preseason rank vs the current year rank. Seems at that time is was around a 20%/80% split, based on the teams he presented in his data. He has a reason for doing this. - As the year continues to progress that assumed 20% split weight winds down to 0%. For a team like Syracuse this year that 20% weight is largely irrelevant (assuming that is what is used) We are ranked 91st in KP, and 105 preseason... by deduction we can see that we would be about #87 in current season data - so 4 spots difference. For a team like Wyoming 2011, its not #87 vs #105... its #43 vs #272. So his weighted ranking will spit out a number that is adjusted a lot -- 45 total spots - in this case #43 falls to #88. But this is an extreme example. But as per his example, their ultimate ranking of #98 was fully based on current year performance. 6. I'm not going to argue against anyone's view that his pre-season rankings are hot garbage. I don't think they are fully 100% garbage, but I'm not going to fight that opinion either. Pretty much anyone's is not good at this point. But they don't impact things by the end, and they don't move that many teams significant spots either by that point (unless your a team that he outlined in his 2011 paper) [/QUOTE]

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