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Message: [QUOTE="Knicks411, post: 4919888, member: 767"] I don't know, this is just a guess, (and I'm not sure there is any real way to prove this, so this will be fun) but I tend to think the line of thought that "team x (usually the team you root for!) is undervalued by scoring margin because sometimes they let up in games they have in hand and the score is closer than it 'should be' at the end" is vastly overstated. Does it happen from time to time? I am sure it does. I am also sure there are times when the team getting beat down throws in the towel and starts chucking long 3's that lead to dunks on the other end that extend the lead. Or when you're getting blown out and the other team lets up and you make a run. Additionally, sometimes when you're blowing a team out by 20 points through 34 or 35 minutes and they make a little run at the end to make it 13 or whatever, that's not just because you "let up". It might also be because you really weren't 20 points better than they were and they went on a run themselves because basketball is a game of runs and sometimes you're on the wrong side of it. Like I said, this is all a gut feel, and maybe someone has done the research on this to prove me wrong, but I really think this effect is vastly overstated over the course of a 30 game regular season. Edited: Cleaning the glass on the NBA side does this thing where they filter our garbage time stats (not exactly sure how they define it, will see if I can check.) I compared teams overall net rating (scoring margin per 100 possessions) to the net rating filtering out garbage time. The average of the absolute differences was about 0.35 points per 100 per team. The largest difference was 1 point per 100, which was Memphis. 21 of the 30 teams were under half a point per 100. Would be curious to see something similar done at the NCAA level. [/QUOTE]

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