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[QUOTE="jncuse, post: 4939592, member: 1969"]
Actually I am very concerned about Pitt being able to maintain a Q1 status by end of year (and alternatively their Q2 status for our home win). [B] Pitt, almost certainly more than any other team in the country has had their KP and NET boosted by 5 high margin victories against bad teams (4 really bad ones in the 300s and Oregon St) [/B]

Those 5 games made up about "30% of their value" as of yesterday in a margin based system (which NET has some elements of).. by year end they only make up about 15%.     So unless they have other really good results to replicate these positive anamolies (which I don't expect), the NET will inherently fall to some degree.   They will need to do well from a true W-L perspective to offset this, and I'm not sure its out there.

People have asked all year why is Pitt so far ahead of us in KP and NET... they certainly don't have a better resume.   They have 0 Q1 or Q2 wins, and they have 1 bad loss.   I finally dove down into it today and those 5 games are huger than I expected.

Below is the team they played how much they won by, and in brackets is how much Houston the #1 team in KP and NET would have been expected to win by.
Jacksonville - 51 (32)
North Carolina A&T - 48 (37)
SC State - 36 (36)
Binghamton - 29 (32)
Oregon St - 26 (21)

[B]So in those 5 games, about 1/3 of their schedule, Pitt won by 190 points.   Houston the top team in the country per KP and NET would only be expected to win those games by 158 points.    So for almost 1/3 of their schedule up to yesterday against nobodies, Pitt basically played at the level of the #1 team in the country.   It really distorted their values - not sure if you can find a similar anomaly this year.[/B]
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