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[QUOTE="jncuse, post: 4944241, member: 1969"]
His rankings are entirely based on margin.    Its not an over reliance, its basically the system's only reliance!  (adjusted to the level of your opponent of course)

Some people might not like that, and that's fair.    I think margin is the best predictor, but when we have smaller samples there can be anomalies which tend to even out a bit over 30 games-- Syracuse and Pitt are some of the two biggest this year in opposite ways.

The most important thing is the NCAA tournament for the most part doesn't give a **** about your predictive rankings like KP, and chooses purely based on W's and L's based on who you beat.   As they should... teams should not be selected by KP..
 
If you play 5 teams ranked between 50-70, and another teams plays 5 teams between 250-300, KP will not punish or reward you for that.    KP will just expect you to beat those teams by "x" more if you are similarly ranked.     The committee might screw you for having a bad OOC SOS (which I am fine with)

That is why I am able to tell you how much a team will move up or down right after a game is completed and before the KP is updated - because movements are purely margin based.   I can do the math in my head , or throw a few numbers in my phone calculator if I get dizzy,  to see how much the EM has jumped.

[I][U]I'm not trying to justify the system or not (although Vegas seems to like it because they use something very similar to set up their opening lines).   I'm just telling you what it does.[/U][/I]

Remember this is a ranking system that is trying to rank 365 teams... you really have no choice to heavily use margin because so many teams have such wildly different schedule strengths due to the conference they are in.
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