Reply to thread

Message

[QUOTE="jncuse, post: 4944784, member: 1969"]
You wouldn't think, but I'll attempt to show the math.  I'll use the KP as they have more discrete "value" on what the difference between #8 and #74 means... I know KP and NET are not exact parallels but they are treating the 2 teams relatively the same (Alabama 8, Syracuse 74).

KP views Alabama as being about 9.5 points better than us on a neutral floor (that is the difference between team #8 and #74) .   So over 18 games, that means they have performed about 170 points better than us (relative to SOS).

Where do those 170 points come from?

[B]Factor #1 - Blowing Out 3 Worst Teams at Home in OOC (96 of the 170)[/B]
This is what each team did against their 3 worst home opponents
Alabama won by 131 points (avg NET 240)
Syracuse won by 35 points (avg NET 218)
Difference of 96 points!

[B]Factor #2 - Margin of Defeat in Losses (63 of the 170)[/B]
The losses of both teams are very strong -- Alabama's are probably a bit better, but for this assume
Alabama 61 points (6 games)
Syracuse  114 points (5 games)
Reduce Alabama to 51 to equalize games... so the difference is 63

For the remaining 9 games (8 for Bama) they then only be about 11 points better than us - so basically equal..   It makes sense, since amongst those 9 games we had nice 20 point wins against LSU and Oregon and almost all our wins against decent teams are all around that 10 point mark.   [B]Games against the middle have been where we have performed the best this year.[/B]

But as you can see from above, it is very much driven by 8 games (or 9 for Alabama):
1) How we did in our 3 "easiest" games in OOC compared to them.
2) How they did better in their losses.
[/QUOTE]

Verification

What is a Syracuse fan's favorite color?