Net Points, etc. after Boston College | Syracusefan.com

Net Points, etc. after Boston College

SWC75

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I’ll continue doing a statistical analysis of games this year with some of the off-beat numbers I like to look at. I’ll post them after each game, probably the next day.

The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.

Of course, there are things players do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.

Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):

Michael Gbinije….. 18NP in 40 minutes season: 189NP in 584 minutes per 40: 12.9
Tyler Roberson……. 15NP in 35 minutes season: 144NP in 416 minutes per 40: 13.8
Rakeem Christmas 12NP in 23 minutes season: 377NP in 615 minutes per 40: 24.5
Kaleb Joseph……….. 10NP in 32 minutes season: 128NP in 586 minutes per 40: 8.7
Trevor Cooney…… 9NP in 40 minutes season: 182NP in 704 minutes per 40: 10.3
Ron Patterson…….. 2NP in 8 minutes season: 21NP in 214 minutes per 40: 3.9
Chinoso Obokoh….. 2NP in 16 minutes season: 16NP in 59 minutes per 40: 10.8
B. J. Johnson……….. -3NP in 6 minutes season: 55NP in 205 minutes per 40: 10.7

DNP-CD- none

INJURED
DaJuan Coleman…. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 0NP in 0 minutes per 40: 0.0
Chris McCullough.. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 171NP in 450 minutes per 40: 15.2

SUSPENDED
None

Comment: This was our most balanced effort of the year, largely because we didn’t have Rakeem Christmas to feed the ball too for 17 minutes and had to exercise some other muscles. For the first time this year we had five guys in double figures in points and we came within one of the same for “net points”. Some people observed that we actually looked like a better team when it wasn’t all about feeding the post: it’s too easy for the defense to cut that off and to collapse inward, which shuts off drives. We need to do a better job involving everybody even when Rak is available. It will open things up even more for him.

Tyler Roberson, who I kind of crushed in my downside, actually had a statistically productive game with 10 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 blocks and a steal. The problem is the biggest thing the box score doesn’t reflect is “sneaker to sneaker” defense. All it has is blocks and steals, which are just a part of defense and not the most important part.

Rakeem Christmas has led in net points 10 times, Chris McCullough 4 times, Mike Gbinije 3 times, Tyler Roberson twice, Trevor Cooney and BJ Johnson once.

POSSESSION

Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 8 offensive and 29 defensive rebounds. They had 10 offensive and 25 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 8 of 33 times, (24.2%). When they missed, they got the ball 10 of 39 times (25.6%). I once thought rebounding was a strength of this team but obviously losing McCullough hurt. Still, BC isn’t a team that should have out-rebounded us. We’ve won the rebounding battle by this measure 13 times in 19 games but are only 5-5 in the last 10. We’ve averaged getting 35.6% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 31.1% of theirs.

Effective offensive rebounding: Neither team did much offensive rebounding or did much with the ball once they got it. We got 6 second chance points off our 8 offensive rebounds, 0.75 points per reb. They got 5 for their 10, just half a point. We took some back out in trying to drain the clock. BC was just so perimeter oriented that they didn’t got to the basket once they got the ball. For the year we’ve averaged 1.01 points per offensive rebound: they’ve averaged 0.82. We’ve led in this stat 12 times in 19 games.

Of our 8 turnovers, 3 were their steals and 5 were our own miscues. Of their 10 turnovers, 4 were Syracuse steals and 6 were their fault. We’ve had fewer turnovers in 13 of 19 games with one even and fewer unforced turnovers in 9 games with 4 even. Last year we had fewer turnovers in 29 of 34 games with 2 even. We are averaging 12 turnovers, 6 unforced, Our opposition is averaging 15/6.

If you add our 37 rebounds to their 10 turnovers, we had 47 “manufactured possessions”. They had 35 + 8= 43, so we were -9, our biggest deficit of the year. We have won that battle 14 of 19 times with one even. For the season we’ve averaged 53 to 47 (+6).


SHOOTING

It’s still what the game is all about. It’s what this game was all about, for sure. We were 18 for 39, (.462) inside the arc, 4 for 11, (.364) outside it and 21 for 31, (.677) from the line. They were 6 for 22 (.273), 10/29 (.345) and 19/27 (.704). We’ve led in two point field goal percentage in 12 of 19 games, (but haven’t his 50% since the Cornell game), and in free throw percentage in 9 games (but only three times in the last 12). We’ve led in three point field goals percentage, believe it or not, in 12 games, (our opposition isn’t exactly filling it up, either). For the season we are .481/.315/.661. Our opposition is .431/.292/.691.

We had 30 points in the paint, 11 off turnovers, 6 “second chance” points, 4 fast break points and 2 from the bench. Our opposition had 12 points in the paint, 3 off turnovers, 5 “second chance” points, 6 fast break points and 0 from the bench. (We actually led in bench points: 2-0!!!) We also had 38 of Pat’s “first chance points” (Total points minus second chance points, fast break points and made free throws) to 31, virtually our winning margin.

We’ve led in PIP 12 times, POTO 13 times, FCP 12 times SCP 12 times, FBP 10 times with 3 ties and BP 9 times, with a tie. For the season we are averaging 32-23 PIP, 16-11 POTO, 31-28 FCP, 13-10 SCP,9-7 FBP and 11-13 BP. We have 15 bench points in the last 5 games.

We had 69 points, 30 in the paint, 12 from the arc and 21 from the line so we had 18 ”POP”, (points outside the paint: 69-30-21) and scored 6 points, (18 POP-12 from the arc), from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. It was a weapon both teams used to very good effect in this game. They had 61/12/30/19= 30 POP with 0 from the Twilight Zone- BC was all about the arc. We’ve only led in POP 8 times but we’ve led in TZ points 12 times in 19 games. For the year we are averaging 22 POP and 9 TZ, our opposition 25/7. The game is so much easier when you don’t have to go to the basket for all your points.

16 of our 22 baskets were assisted (.727) and also 15 of their 26 (.938- supporting the notion that the of your game that is on the perimeter, the higher percentage of assists you will have). For the year we are assisting on 63.7% of our baskets to 64.0% for the opposition, who have had a higher percentage in 8 of 19 games, with one tie. Assists tend to come more often from jump shots than lay-ups or dunks so the more assists you get, the more you are settling for jump shots to try to win the game which is often a bad strategy. I think it’s interesting that we have a high assist percentage with our “point guard by committee” situation. The team is at least sharing the ball well.

You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 50 FGA - 8 OREBs + 8TOs + (.475 x 31) = 64.725 possessions. They were 51 -10+ 10+ (.475 x 27) = 63.825 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 65 possessions in which we scored 69 points, (1.062) and 64 possessions in which they scored 61 points, (0.953). We have, of course, led 13 of 18 games in offensive efficiency since the winning team always leads in that stat. For the year we are averaging 1.024 points per possession to 0.895 for the opposition.

We had 129 combined possessions in this game. We’ve averaged 132 this year. We averaged 122 last year, so the pace appears to be better than it was last season.

Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog, and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game Michael Gbinije was scored 17 points with 4 assists for 21 “hockey” points and thus was our ODOG. Rakeem Christmas has been the O-Dog 8 times, Trevor Cooney 5 times, Michael Gbinije 4 times, BJ Johnson, Kaleb Joseph and Chris McCullough once each.

Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game 15-13, 18-4, 15-22, 19-22. For the season we have an average of 16-12, 17-14, 15-15, 18-17. We’ve won 47 of 76 quarters with two even. We’ve scored 15 or more in 50 quarters and held the opposition under that 42 times.

I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted. Rakeem Christmas sat us down with a lay-up at 15:16 in the first half and Michael Gbinije did the same in the second half with a lay-up at 16:05. Those represent the two longest waits, (4:44 and 3:55) we’d had this year. The average time we’ve had to wait is 1 minute 26 seconds. Rakeem Christmas has sat us down 13 times, Trevor Cooney 7 times, Michael Gbinije 6 times, Kaleb Joseph and Chris McCullough 5 times and Tyler Roberson twice.

Another fun fact is the “Taco Bell MVP”: the guy who gets us to 75 points so people can free, (or is it discounted?) tacos at Taco Bell. No tacos in this one. Rakeem Christmas, Trevor Cooney, Michael Gbinije, BJ Johnson and Ron Patterson have each got us Tacos once. (I wonder how many point we have to score to get real meat in the tacos?) The longest we’ve had to wait after getting close to 75 points is 3:31.

FOULS

My theory about fouls is that the team that attempts the most two point shots will tend to get fouled the most. If the numbers are as predicted or close, there’s nothing to be read into them but if there’s a big disparity, it makes you wonder about how the game was called.

In this game, we attempted 39 two point shots to 22, scored 30 points in the paint to 12 and got fouled 24 times to 17, attempting 31 foul shots to 27. The ratio of two point attempts to times fouled was 1.6 for us and 1.3 for them. The ratio of points in the paint to times fouled was 1.25 for us to 0.7 for them. The ratio of free throw attempts to fouls called on the other team was 1.3 for us and 1.6 for them. How did a team that shot mostly from the perimeter and was not being intentionally fouled at the end get to the line nearly as often as we did?

Last year we attempted 1368 two point shots to 993 for the opposition and scored 1028 PIP to 753. We committed 546 fouls to 598 and went to the line 720 to 607 times, suggesting that there should be a relationship between two points attempts and points in the point and how many fouls are called on the other team and how many times you got to the line. The ratio of two point attempts to times fouled was 2.3 for us and 1.8 for them. The ratio of points in the paint to times fouled was 1.7 for us to 1.4 for them. The ratio of free throw attempts to fouls called on the other team was 1.2 for us and 1.1 for them.

This year we have taken 806 two point shots and scored 612 points in the paint. We’ve been fouled 335 times and taken 385 free throws. Our opposition has taken 652 two point shots and scored 440 points in the paint. They’ve been fouled 284 times and taken only 318 free throws. The ratio of two point attempts to times fouled has been 2.4 for us and 2.3 for them. The ratio of points in the paint to times fouled has been 1.8 for us to 1.5 for them. The ratio of free throw attempts to fouls called on the other team has been 1.1 for us and 1.1 for them. So the officiating overall has been pretty even-handed.


“MY MAN”

A reporter once asked Casey Stengel how come he won so many games with the Yankees. He said “Because I never play a game without “my man”. The reporter wondered who his man was. Casey suggested “You could look it up.” The reporter did look it up and found that Yogi Berra had played in every game that season at some positon: catcher, left field, pinch-hitting, something. He was the player Stengel had the highest regard for and the most trust in, so he didn’t want to do without him.

Who is Jim Boeheim’s “man” this season? The only way to tell is to see who plays the most minutes each game. In this game, Michael Gbinije and Trevor Cooney both played all 40 minutes. Trevor Cooney has been the “Man” 11 times, Michael Gbinije 5 times, Chris McCullough and Kaleb Joseph and Rakeem Christmas 4 times each. Cooney still leads the team in minutes played with 704, 89 more than any other player. Encouragingly, the guy in second place is Rakeem Christmas, who earlier had a problem staying in games because of excessive fouling.
 

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