Net Points, etc. after Cornell | Syracusefan.com

Net Points, etc. after Cornell

SWC75

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I’ll continue doing a statistical analysis of games this year with some of the off-beat numbers I like to look at. I’ll post them after each game, probably the next day.

The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.

Of course, there are things players do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.

Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):

Rakeem Christmas 19NP in 34 minutes season: 256NP in 396 minutes per 40: 25.9
Trevor Cooney…… 15NP in 35 minutes season: 132NP in 463 minutes per 40: 11.4
Kaleb Joseph……….. 10NP in 27 minutes season: 94NP in 424 minutes per 40: 8.9
Chris McCullough.. 9NP in 24 minutes season: 162NP in 400 minutes per 40: 16.2
Tyler Roberson……. 5NP in 22 minutes season: 82NP in 219 minutes per 40: 15.0
Michael Gbinije….. 5NP in 33 minutes season: 109NP in 348 minutes per 40: 12.5
Ron Patterson…….. 1NP in 15 minutes season: 18NP in 130 minutes per 40: 5.5
B. J. Johnson……….. 0NP in 9 minutes season: 61NP in 190 minutes per 40: 12.8

DNP-CD- none
Chinoso Obokoh….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 18NP in 38 minutes per 40: 18.90

INJURED
DaJuan Coleman…. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 0NP in 0 minutes per 40: 0.0

SUSPENDED
None

Comment: (I’ve double-checked these numbers vs. those on the SU athletics website in conjunction with my monthly net points post so there have been some minor adjustments.) Christmas had a great game but his NP per 40 actually went down. He’s had a great season. It’s interesting that Obokoh couldn’t even get in in a game vs. Cornell. I guess McCullough is going to be this team’s back-up center for the rest of the year. I find that disappointing. He did have a mild comeback game but I think he needs to focus on being a power forward. Cooney has become a mainstay for the team.

Rakeem Christmas has led in net points 6 times, Chris McCullough 4 times, Mike Gbinije, BJ Johnson and Tyler Roberson once each.

POSSESSION

Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 8 offensive and 25 defensive rebounds. They had 12 offensive and 22 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball only 8 of 30 times, (26.7%). When they missed, they got the ball 12 of 37 times (32.4%). We’ve won the rebounding battle in every game by this measure 10 times in 13 games. We’ve averaged getting 38% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 30% of theirs. But we shouldn’t be out-rebounded by Cornell. We went into the Villanova game feeling that rebounding was a strength of this team and that it might be the tool we could use to beat the Wildcats. At that point we’d rebounded 40% of our own misses and 71% of the other teams. Since then we’ve rebounded 30% of our own misses and 68% of theirs. And that includes games against Colgate and Cornell. We need to get back on the offensive boards.

Of our 14 turnovers, 8 were their steals and 6 were our own miscues. Of their 18 turnovers, 12 were Syracuse steals and 6 were their fault. We have had fewer turnovers in 8 of 13 games with 1 even. Last year we had fewer turnovers in 29 of 34 games with 2 even. We are averaging 13 turnovers, 6 unforced, Our opposition is averaging 16/6.

If you add our 33 rebounds to their 18 turnovers, we had 51 “manufactured possessions”. They had 34 + 14 = 48, so we were +3. We have won that battle it 10 of 13 times. For the season we’ve averaged 55 to 46 (+9).


SHOOTING

It’s still what the game is all about. It’s what this game was all about, for sure. We were 21 for 40, (.525) inside the arc, 4 for 12, (.333) outside it and 7 for 11, (.636) from the line. They were 15 for 33 (.455), 4/22 (.182) and 2/5 (.400). We’ve led in two point field goal percentage in 9 of 13 games and in free throw percentage in 9 games. We’ve led in three point field goals percentage, believe it or not, in 8 games, (our opposition isn’t exactly filling it up, either). For the season we are .519/.289/.667. Our opposition is .431/.279/.692. Our last three opponents won’t remember their trip to the Dome well- they’ve gotten to attempt a total of 13 free throws.

We had 34 points in the paint, 22 off turnovers, 4 “second chance” points, 12 fast break points and 7 from the bench. Our opposition had 20 points in the paint, 5 off turnovers, 124 “second chance” points, 5 fast break points and 26 from the bench. We’ve led in PIP 8 times, POTO 9 times, SCP 7 times, FBP 7 times with two ties and BP 7 times, with a tie. For the season we are averaging 35-24 PIP, 18-12 POTO, 13-10 SCP, 10-8 FBP and 13-13 BP. Long reboudns aside, Cornell shouldn’t have ahd three tiems as many second chance points as we did. Cornell’s huge edge in bench points evented that stat for the year: 168-168 in 13 games. But after the pre-conference season we should be way ahead in bench points. Then the start to disappear as we get into the conference. This year, they’ve already disappeared. Par tof it is a simple lack of firepower off the bench. Part of it is that we’ve played a ton of close games and JB’s had to stick with his close game rotation much more than he’d like to. You wonder if there will be payback at the end of the year for having key guys play so many minutes.

We had 61 points, 34 in the paint, 12 from the arc and 7 from the line so we had 20 ”POP”, (points outside the paint: 61-34-7) and scored 8 points, (20 POP-12 from the arc), from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. It was a weapon we used to very good effect in this game. They had 44/20/12/2= 22 POP and 10 from the Twilight Zone. We’ve only led in POP 5 times but we’ve led in TZ points 9 times in 13 games. For the year we are averaging 22 POP and 9 TZ, our opposition 24/6. The game is so much easier when you don’t have to go to the basket for all your points.

16 of our 25 baskets were assisted (.640) and 13 of their 19 (.684). For the year we are assisting on 63% of our baskets to 64% for the opposition, who have had a higher percentage in 7 of 13 games. Assists tend to come more often from jump shots than lay-ups or dunks so the more assists you get, the more you are settling for jump shots to try to win the game which is often a bad strategy.

You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 52 FGA - 8 OREBs + 14 TOs + (.475 x 11) = 63.225 possessions. They were 55 -12+ 18+ (.475 x 5) = 63.375 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 63 possessions in which we scored 61 points, (1.042) and 63 possessions in which they scored 44 points, (0.698). We have, of course, led 9 of 13 games in offensive efficiency since the winning team always leads in that stat. For the year we are averaging 1.042 points per possession to 0.857 for the opposition.

We had 126 combined possessions in this game. We’ve averaged 134 this year. We averaged 122 last year, so the pace appears to be better than it was last year.

Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog, and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game Rakeem Christmas had 19 points with no assists for 19 “hockey” points and thus was our co-ODOG. Rakeem Christmas has been the O-Dog 5 times, Trevor Cooney and Michael Gbinije 3 times , BJ Johnson, Kaleb Joseph and Chris McCullough once each.

Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game 8-2, 15-10, 24-14, 14-18. For the season, we have an average of 16-11, 18-14, 17-15, 19-17. We’ve won 35 of 52 quarters. We’ve scored 15 or more in 35 quarters and held the opposition under that 29 times.

I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted. Rakeem Christmas opened the first half with a lay-up at 16:29, (a wait of 3 minutes and 31 seconds- the longest of the season) and Chris McCullough did the same with a jumper in the second half at 19:48. The average time we’ve had to wait is 1 minute 25 seconds. Rakeem Christmas has sat us down 8 times, Kaleb Joseph and Chris McCullough 4 times, Michael Gbinije 3 times, Trevor Cooney twice and Tyler Roberson once. .

Another fun fact is the “Taco Bell MVP”: the guy who gets us to 75 points so people can free, (or is it discounted?) tacos at Taco Bell. There were no tacos after this game. The longest we’ve had to wait is 3:31). Rakeem Christmas, Trevor Cooney, BJ Johnson and Ron Patterson have each got us Tacos once. (I wonder how many point we have to score to get real meat in the tacos? )

FOULS

My theory about fouls is that the team that attempts the most two point shots will tend to get fouled the most. If the numbers are as predicted or close, there’s nothing to be read into them but if there’s a big disparity, it makes you wonder about how the game was called.

In this game, we attempted 40 two point shots to 33, scored 34 points in the paint to 20 and got fouled 14 times to 8, attempting 11 foul shots to 5. The ratio of two point attempts to times fouled was 2.9 for us and 4.1 for them. The ratio of points in the paint to times fouled was 2.4 for us to 2.5 for them. The ratio of free throw attempts to fouls called on the other team was 1.3 for us and 1.6 for them. Cornell might have a complaint about the officiating based on the number of times they shot within the arc and how often they wound up at the line. There were only 16 free throws attempted in this game. The refs wanted to get to the party, too.

Last year we attempted 1368 two point shots to 993 for the opposition and scored 1028 PIP to 753. We committed 546 fouls to 598 and went to the line 720 to 607 times, suggesting that there should be a relationship between two points attempts and points in the point and how many fouls are called on the other team and how many times you got to the line. The ratio of two point attempts to times fouled was 2.3 for us and 1.8 for them. The ratio of points in the paint to times fouled was 1.7 for us to 1.4 for them. The ratio of free throw attempts to fouls called on the other team was 1.2 for us and 1.1 for them.

This year we have taken 553 two point shots and scored 458 points in the paint. We’ve been fouled 224 times and taken 254 free throws. Our opposition has taken 454 two point shots and scored 314 points in the paint. They’ve been fouled 191 times and taken only 199 free throws. The ratio of two point attempts to times fouled has been 2.5 for us and 2.4 for them. The ratio of points in the paint to times fouled has been 2.0 for us to 1.6 for them. The ratio of free throw attempts to fouls called on the other team has been 1.1 for us and 1.0 for them.


“MY MAN”

A reporter once asked Casey Stengel how come he won so many games with the Yankees. He said “Because I never play a game without “my man”. The reporter wondered who his man was. Casey suggested “You could look it up.” The reporter did look it up and found that Yogi Berra had played in every game that season at some positon: catcher, left field, pinch-hitting, something. He was the player Stengel had the highest regard for and the most trust in, so he didn’t want to do without him.

Who is Jim Boeheim’s “man” this season? The only way to tell is to see who plays the most minutes each game. In this game, Trevor Cooney played 35 minutes. Trevor Cooney has been the “Man” 8 times, Chris McCullough and Kaleb Joseph 4 times Michael Gbinije twice and Rakeem Christmas once. Cooney has the team lead in minutes played with 463, 39 more than any other player. In the beginning of the season, I think it was because he “used up” a defender on the perimeter. Now I believe it’s because of his all-around skills in handling the ball, driving to the basket and shooting. He’s become the guy Boeheim most wants with the ball in his hands.
 
Who is Jim Boeheim’s “man” this season? The only way to tell is to see who plays the most minutes each game. In this game, Trevor Cooney played 35 minutes. Trevor Cooney has been the “Man” 8 times, Chris McCullough and Kaleb Joseph 4 times Michael Gbinije twice and Rakeem Christmas once. Cooney has the team lead in minutes played with 463, 39 more than any other player. In the beginning of the season, I think it was because he “used up” a defender on the perimeter. Now I believe it’s because of his all-around skills in handling the ball, driving to the basket and shooting. He’s become the guy Boeheim most wants with the ball in his hands.

Rak is the man. He would never come out if not for foul trouble as he is the most irreplaceable player.
 
Who is Jim Boeheim’s “man” this season? The only way to tell is to see who plays the most minutes each game. In this game, Trevor Cooney played 35 minutes. Trevor Cooney has been the “Man” 8 times, Chris McCullough and Kaleb Joseph 4 times Michael Gbinije twice and Rakeem Christmas once. Cooney has the team lead in minutes played with 463, 39 more than any other player. In the beginning of the season, I think it was because he “used up” a defender on the perimeter. Now I believe it’s because of his all-around skills in handling the ball, driving to the basket and shooting. He’s become the guy Boeheim most wants with the ball in his hands.

Rak is the man. He would never come out if not for foul trouble as he is the most irreplaceable player.


In the six games where Rak has wound up with less than 3 fouls: Holy Cross, Michigan, St. John's, Colgate, Long Beach State and Cornell, Christmas has played 194 minutes, Cooney 210.
 

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