SWC75
Bored Historian
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I’ll continue doing a statistical analysis of games this year with some of the off-beat numbers I like to look at. I’ll post them after each game, probably the next day.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things players do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship players in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Tyler Roberson had 28 net points in 37 minutes, has 38 NP in 87 minutes for the season = 17.5NP/40
Michael Gbinije had 17 net points in 26 minutes, has 47 NP in 101 minutes for the season = 18.6NP/40
Trevor Cooney had 9 net points in 38 minutes, has 31 NP in 115 minutes for the season = 10.8NP/40
Tyler Lydon had 8 net points in 35 minutes, has 39 NP in 94 minutes for the season = 16.6NP/40
Malachi Richardson had 5 net points in 32 minutes, has 22 NP in 97 minutes for the season = 9.1NP/40
DaJuan Coleman had 2 net points in 10 minutes, has 7 NP in 37 minutes for the season = -7.6NP/40
Chinoso Obokoh had 1 net points in 5 minutes, has 4 NP in 21 minutes for the season = 7.6NP/40
Franklin Howard had 1 net points in 9 minutes, has 3 NP in 22 minutes for the season = 5.5NP/40
Kaleb Joseph had -2 net points in 8 minutes, has 7 NP in 26 minutes for the season = 10.8NP/40
DNP-CD
None
INJURED
None
SUSPENDED
None
Comments: Tyler Roberson finally broke out and he broke out big with 20 points and 16 rebounds. We can’t expect that every night but we could hope to see at least half those numbers. Richardson shot poorly but got to the line and got his points anyway like a good scorer does. Gbinije got in foul trouble but dominated when he was playing, getting 16 points, 6 rebounds and 4 steals in 26 minutes. Cooney also didn’t shoot well but had 6 rebounds, 4 assists and 2 steals. Tyler Lydon didn’t put up big numbers but had a solid game with 5 points, 7 rebs and 4 blocks. That’s a good core of 5 guys. Now we need the other guys to add to that.
The Stats:
POSSESSION
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 10 offensive and 35 defensive rebounds. They had 14 offensive and 23 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 10 of 33 times, (30.3%, which is good). When they missed, they got the ball 14 of 49 times (28.6% - it wasn’t a game for hitting the offensive boards). We’ve won the rebounding battle by this measure 1 time. For the year we’ve averaged getting 33.0% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 39.8% of theirs. And these are teams we should have decisively out-rebounded.
Effective offensive rebounding: We got 8 second chance points off our 10 offensive rebounds, 0.80 points per rebound. They got 5 for their 14 = 0.36. For the year we’ve averaged 0.65 points per offensive rebound: they’ve averaged 0.85. We’ve also led in this stat 1 time.
Of our 15 turnovers, 7 were their steals and 8 were our own miscues. Of their 13 turnovers, 7 were Syracuse steals and 6 were their fault. It was a very sloppy game with 14 unforced turnovers. We’ve had fewer turnovers in 1 game and fewer unforced turnovers in 0 games. It’s an area we need to tighten up as one of the ideas behind the zone is that we will make up for a rebounding deficit with a favorable turnover margin.
If you add our 45 rebounds to their 13 turnovers, we had 58 “manufactured possessions”. They had 37 + 15 = 52. We have won that battle 1 time with 1 even. For the season we’ve averaged 54.3 MP to 54.0.
SHOOTING
It’s still what the game is all about. It’s what this game was all about, for sure. We were 14 for 36, (.389) inside the arc, (which is awful), 6 for 15, (.400) outside it and 20 for 25, (.800) from the line. They were 13 for 33 (.394), 8/33 (.242) and 5/10 (.500). We’ve led in two point field goal percentage in 2 games, in three point field goals percentage in all 3 games, and in free throw percentage in 2 games. For the season we are .439/.356/.754. Our opposition is .382/.256/.659.
We had 26 points in the paint (PIP), 13 off turnovers (POTO), 8 “second chance” points (SCP), 8 fast break points (FBP) and 7 from the bench (BP). Our opposition had 24 points in the paint, 15 off turnovers, 5 “second chance” points, 6 fast break points and 23 from the bench. We also had 30 of Pat’s “first chance points” (FCP) (total points minus second chance points, fast break points and made free throws) to 39. It’s kind of embarrassing to lose the initial scoring sets to Elon 30-39. It’s also concerning to lose to their bench, 7-23.
We’ve led in PIP 2 times, POTO 1 times, FCP 2 times, SCP 1 times, FBP 2 times, and BP 1 times. For the season we are averaging 21-25 PIP, 14-16 POTO, 34-25 FCP, 7.3-14.0 SCP, 9-8 FBP and 11-15BP.
We had 66 points, 26 in the paint, 18 from the arc and 20 from the line so we had 20 ”POP”, (points outside the paint: 66-26-20) and scored 2 points, (20 POP-18 from the arc), from what I’ll call the Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 55/24/24/5= 26 POP with 2 from the Twilight Zone, (nobody wants to go there any more). We’ve led in POP 1 times. We’ve led in TZ points 2 times with one tie. For the year we are averaging 29 POP and 3 TZ, our opposition 22/1 (yes, neither opponent has hit a shot from the TZ). The game is so much easier when you don’t have to go to the basket for all your points.
13 of our 20 baskets were assisted (.650) and also 17 of their 21 (.810). For the year we are assisting on 66.1% of our baskets to 68.3% for the opposition, who have had a higher percentage in 1 game. Assists tend to come more often from jump shots than lay-ups or dunks so the more assists you get, the more you are settling for jump shots to try to win the game which is often a bad strategy but, as JB says, is the way we have to play this year because of our personnel.
You compute possessions by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 51 FGA - 10 OREBs + 15 TOs + (.475 x 25) = 67.875 possessions. They were 66 -14+ 13+ (.475 x 10) = 69.75 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 68 possessions for us and 69 for them. There were 137 combined possessions in this game. We’ve averaged 132 possessions per game this year.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by dividing the points scored by the number of possessions. We scored 66 points in 68 possessions (0.974). They scored 55 points in 69 possessions (0.797). We have, of course, led 3 games in offensive efficiency since the winning team always leads in that stat. For the year we are averaging 1.020 points per possession to 0.848 for the opposition.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game 17-11, 12-12, 20-21, 17-11. For the season we have an average of 13-14, 17-10, 18-20, 19-13. We’ve won 7 of 12 quarters with 1 even. We’ve scored 15 or more in 7 quarters and held the opposition under that 7 times.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog, and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game Tyler Roberson scored 20 points with 1 assists for 21 “hockey” points and thus was our ODOG., Michael Gbinije has been the O-Dog 2 times, Tyler Roberson 1 time.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted. Michael Gbinije hit a trey 20 seconds into the 1st half. Malachi Richardson scored a trey 2 minutes and 7 seconds into the second half. The longest we’d had to wait this year (2 minutes, 7 seconds) was the second half against Elon. The average time we’ve had to wait is 48 seconds. Malachi Richardson has sat us down 3 times, Michael Gbinije 2 times and DaJuan Coleman 1 times. We’ve been sat down by 4 treys and 2 lay-ups. Against Elon, two of our six treys were sit down shots. We didn’t get as many shots of that type off as we had been but we are definitely looking for them.
Another fun fact is the “Taco Bell MVP”: the guy who gets us to 70 points, (it used to be 75), so people can get free, (or is it discounted?) tacos at Taco Bell. Michael Gbinije hit a free throw with 3:02 left to get us tacos vs St, Bonaventure, the only time we’ve tasted them so far this year, (except for the exhibitions).
FOULS
My theory about fouls is that the team that attempts the most two point shots and scores the most in the paint will tend to get fouled the most. If the numbers are as predicted or close, there’s nothing to be read into them but if there’s a big disparity, it makes you wonder about how the game was called.
In this game, we attempted 36 two point shots to 33, scored 26 points in the paint to 24 and got fouled 25 times to 21, attempting 10 foul shots to 15. The ratio of two point attempts to times fouled was 1.7 for us and 2.2 for them. The ratio of points in the paint to times fouled was 1.2 for us to 1.6 for them. The ratio of free throw attempts to fouls called on the other team was 1.2 for us and 0.7 for them. (So , numerically, the calls seemed to favor us. )
We are averaging 1.3 two point shots per foul, 1.0 points in the paint per foul and attempted 1.1 foul shots per foul. They are averaging 2.2 two point shots per foul, 1.7 points in the paint per foul and attempted 0.9 foul shots per foul. We’ve been fouled more often compared to our two point shots in 3 games and more often compared to our points in the paint in 3 games. We’ve gotten more fouls shots per foul in 2 games.
“MY MAN”
A reporter once asked Casey Stengel how come he won so many games with the Yankees. He said “Because I never play a game without “my man”. The reporter wondered who his man was. Casey suggested “You could look it up.” The reporter did look it up and found that Yogi Berra had played in every game that season at some positon: catcher, left field, pinch-hitting, something. He was the player Stengel had the highest regard for and the most trust in, so he didn’t want to do without him.
Who is Jim Boeheim’s “man” this season? The only way to tell is to see who plays the most minutes each game. In this game, Trevor Cooney led with 38 minutes. Trevor Cooney has led in minutes 3 times.
(This week's tournament will involve three games in three days. I'll wait until all three are done and do a combined "Net Points, etc." post for all three games.)
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things players do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship players in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Tyler Roberson had 28 net points in 37 minutes, has 38 NP in 87 minutes for the season = 17.5NP/40
Michael Gbinije had 17 net points in 26 minutes, has 47 NP in 101 minutes for the season = 18.6NP/40
Trevor Cooney had 9 net points in 38 minutes, has 31 NP in 115 minutes for the season = 10.8NP/40
Tyler Lydon had 8 net points in 35 minutes, has 39 NP in 94 minutes for the season = 16.6NP/40
Malachi Richardson had 5 net points in 32 minutes, has 22 NP in 97 minutes for the season = 9.1NP/40
DaJuan Coleman had 2 net points in 10 minutes, has 7 NP in 37 minutes for the season = -7.6NP/40
Chinoso Obokoh had 1 net points in 5 minutes, has 4 NP in 21 minutes for the season = 7.6NP/40
Franklin Howard had 1 net points in 9 minutes, has 3 NP in 22 minutes for the season = 5.5NP/40
Kaleb Joseph had -2 net points in 8 minutes, has 7 NP in 26 minutes for the season = 10.8NP/40
DNP-CD
None
INJURED
None
SUSPENDED
None
Comments: Tyler Roberson finally broke out and he broke out big with 20 points and 16 rebounds. We can’t expect that every night but we could hope to see at least half those numbers. Richardson shot poorly but got to the line and got his points anyway like a good scorer does. Gbinije got in foul trouble but dominated when he was playing, getting 16 points, 6 rebounds and 4 steals in 26 minutes. Cooney also didn’t shoot well but had 6 rebounds, 4 assists and 2 steals. Tyler Lydon didn’t put up big numbers but had a solid game with 5 points, 7 rebs and 4 blocks. That’s a good core of 5 guys. Now we need the other guys to add to that.
The Stats:
POSSESSION
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 10 offensive and 35 defensive rebounds. They had 14 offensive and 23 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 10 of 33 times, (30.3%, which is good). When they missed, they got the ball 14 of 49 times (28.6% - it wasn’t a game for hitting the offensive boards). We’ve won the rebounding battle by this measure 1 time. For the year we’ve averaged getting 33.0% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 39.8% of theirs. And these are teams we should have decisively out-rebounded.
Effective offensive rebounding: We got 8 second chance points off our 10 offensive rebounds, 0.80 points per rebound. They got 5 for their 14 = 0.36. For the year we’ve averaged 0.65 points per offensive rebound: they’ve averaged 0.85. We’ve also led in this stat 1 time.
Of our 15 turnovers, 7 were their steals and 8 were our own miscues. Of their 13 turnovers, 7 were Syracuse steals and 6 were their fault. It was a very sloppy game with 14 unforced turnovers. We’ve had fewer turnovers in 1 game and fewer unforced turnovers in 0 games. It’s an area we need to tighten up as one of the ideas behind the zone is that we will make up for a rebounding deficit with a favorable turnover margin.
If you add our 45 rebounds to their 13 turnovers, we had 58 “manufactured possessions”. They had 37 + 15 = 52. We have won that battle 1 time with 1 even. For the season we’ve averaged 54.3 MP to 54.0.
SHOOTING
It’s still what the game is all about. It’s what this game was all about, for sure. We were 14 for 36, (.389) inside the arc, (which is awful), 6 for 15, (.400) outside it and 20 for 25, (.800) from the line. They were 13 for 33 (.394), 8/33 (.242) and 5/10 (.500). We’ve led in two point field goal percentage in 2 games, in three point field goals percentage in all 3 games, and in free throw percentage in 2 games. For the season we are .439/.356/.754. Our opposition is .382/.256/.659.
We had 26 points in the paint (PIP), 13 off turnovers (POTO), 8 “second chance” points (SCP), 8 fast break points (FBP) and 7 from the bench (BP). Our opposition had 24 points in the paint, 15 off turnovers, 5 “second chance” points, 6 fast break points and 23 from the bench. We also had 30 of Pat’s “first chance points” (FCP) (total points minus second chance points, fast break points and made free throws) to 39. It’s kind of embarrassing to lose the initial scoring sets to Elon 30-39. It’s also concerning to lose to their bench, 7-23.
We’ve led in PIP 2 times, POTO 1 times, FCP 2 times, SCP 1 times, FBP 2 times, and BP 1 times. For the season we are averaging 21-25 PIP, 14-16 POTO, 34-25 FCP, 7.3-14.0 SCP, 9-8 FBP and 11-15BP.
We had 66 points, 26 in the paint, 18 from the arc and 20 from the line so we had 20 ”POP”, (points outside the paint: 66-26-20) and scored 2 points, (20 POP-18 from the arc), from what I’ll call the Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 55/24/24/5= 26 POP with 2 from the Twilight Zone, (nobody wants to go there any more). We’ve led in POP 1 times. We’ve led in TZ points 2 times with one tie. For the year we are averaging 29 POP and 3 TZ, our opposition 22/1 (yes, neither opponent has hit a shot from the TZ). The game is so much easier when you don’t have to go to the basket for all your points.
13 of our 20 baskets were assisted (.650) and also 17 of their 21 (.810). For the year we are assisting on 66.1% of our baskets to 68.3% for the opposition, who have had a higher percentage in 1 game. Assists tend to come more often from jump shots than lay-ups or dunks so the more assists you get, the more you are settling for jump shots to try to win the game which is often a bad strategy but, as JB says, is the way we have to play this year because of our personnel.
You compute possessions by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 51 FGA - 10 OREBs + 15 TOs + (.475 x 25) = 67.875 possessions. They were 66 -14+ 13+ (.475 x 10) = 69.75 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 68 possessions for us and 69 for them. There were 137 combined possessions in this game. We’ve averaged 132 possessions per game this year.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by dividing the points scored by the number of possessions. We scored 66 points in 68 possessions (0.974). They scored 55 points in 69 possessions (0.797). We have, of course, led 3 games in offensive efficiency since the winning team always leads in that stat. For the year we are averaging 1.020 points per possession to 0.848 for the opposition.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game 17-11, 12-12, 20-21, 17-11. For the season we have an average of 13-14, 17-10, 18-20, 19-13. We’ve won 7 of 12 quarters with 1 even. We’ve scored 15 or more in 7 quarters and held the opposition under that 7 times.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog, and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game Tyler Roberson scored 20 points with 1 assists for 21 “hockey” points and thus was our ODOG., Michael Gbinije has been the O-Dog 2 times, Tyler Roberson 1 time.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted. Michael Gbinije hit a trey 20 seconds into the 1st half. Malachi Richardson scored a trey 2 minutes and 7 seconds into the second half. The longest we’d had to wait this year (2 minutes, 7 seconds) was the second half against Elon. The average time we’ve had to wait is 48 seconds. Malachi Richardson has sat us down 3 times, Michael Gbinije 2 times and DaJuan Coleman 1 times. We’ve been sat down by 4 treys and 2 lay-ups. Against Elon, two of our six treys were sit down shots. We didn’t get as many shots of that type off as we had been but we are definitely looking for them.
Another fun fact is the “Taco Bell MVP”: the guy who gets us to 70 points, (it used to be 75), so people can get free, (or is it discounted?) tacos at Taco Bell. Michael Gbinije hit a free throw with 3:02 left to get us tacos vs St, Bonaventure, the only time we’ve tasted them so far this year, (except for the exhibitions).
FOULS
My theory about fouls is that the team that attempts the most two point shots and scores the most in the paint will tend to get fouled the most. If the numbers are as predicted or close, there’s nothing to be read into them but if there’s a big disparity, it makes you wonder about how the game was called.
In this game, we attempted 36 two point shots to 33, scored 26 points in the paint to 24 and got fouled 25 times to 21, attempting 10 foul shots to 15. The ratio of two point attempts to times fouled was 1.7 for us and 2.2 for them. The ratio of points in the paint to times fouled was 1.2 for us to 1.6 for them. The ratio of free throw attempts to fouls called on the other team was 1.2 for us and 0.7 for them. (So , numerically, the calls seemed to favor us. )
We are averaging 1.3 two point shots per foul, 1.0 points in the paint per foul and attempted 1.1 foul shots per foul. They are averaging 2.2 two point shots per foul, 1.7 points in the paint per foul and attempted 0.9 foul shots per foul. We’ve been fouled more often compared to our two point shots in 3 games and more often compared to our points in the paint in 3 games. We’ve gotten more fouls shots per foul in 2 games.
“MY MAN”
A reporter once asked Casey Stengel how come he won so many games with the Yankees. He said “Because I never play a game without “my man”. The reporter wondered who his man was. Casey suggested “You could look it up.” The reporter did look it up and found that Yogi Berra had played in every game that season at some positon: catcher, left field, pinch-hitting, something. He was the player Stengel had the highest regard for and the most trust in, so he didn’t want to do without him.
Who is Jim Boeheim’s “man” this season? The only way to tell is to see who plays the most minutes each game. In this game, Trevor Cooney led with 38 minutes. Trevor Cooney has led in minutes 3 times.
(This week's tournament will involve three games in three days. I'll wait until all three are done and do a combined "Net Points, etc." post for all three games.)
