SWC75
Bored Historian
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I’ll continue doing a statistical analysis of games this year with some of the off-beat numbers I like to look at. I’ll post them after each game, probably the next day.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things players do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Rakeem Christmas 22NP in 33 minutes season: 42NP in 57 minutes per 40: 29.5
Chris McCullough.. 13NP in 27 minutes season: 32NP in 56 minutes per 40: 22.9
Trevor Cooney…… 8NP in 36 minutes season: 24NP in 69 minutes per 40: 13.9
Tyler Roberson……. 6NP in 16 minutes season: 17NP in 43 minutes per 40: 15.8
Michael Gbinije….. 6NP in 23 minutes season: 6NP in 23 minutes per 40: 10.4
B. J. Johnson……….. 6NP in 26 minutes season: 33NP in 52 minutes per 40: 25.4
Kaleb Joseph……….. 4NP in 34 minutes season: 11NP in 57 minutes per 40: 7.7
Ron Patterson…….. -1NP in 4 minutes season: 4NP in 27 minutes per 40: 5.9
Chinoso Obokoh….. 0NP in 1 minutes season: 2NP in 12 minutes per 40: 6.7
DNP-CD- none
INJURED
DaJuan Coleman…. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 0NP in 0minutes per 40: 0.0
SUSPENDED- none
Comment: Those averages certain changed from the Kennesaw State game, didn’t they? We’ve now been led in net points by Rakeem Christmas once and BJ Johnson once.
POSSESSION:
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 11 offensive and 27 defensive rebounds. They had 9 offensive and 23 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 11 of 34 times, (32.4%). When they missed, they got the ball 9 of 36 times (25.0%). We’ve averaged getting 46.2% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 21.6% of theirs.
Of our 10 turnovers, 6 were their steals and 4 were our own miscues. Of their 15 turnovers, 4 were Syracuse steals and 11 were their fault. We are averaging 10.5 turnovers, 5.5 unforced. Our opposition is averaging 20/10.5.
If you add our 38 rebounds to their 15 turnovers, we had 53 “manufactured possessions”. They had 32 + 10= 42, so we were +11. For the season we’ve averaged 67 to 39.5 (+27.5).
SHOOTING:
It’s still what the game is all about. It’s what this game was all about, for sure. We were 17 for 35, (.486) inside the arc, 5 for 18, (.278) outside it and 16 for 23 (.696) from the line. They were 16 for 34 (.471), 4/19 (.211) and 3/8 (.375). We had 60 two point attempts vs. Kennesaw State due to our dominance of the boards and their 25 turnovers. We had 25 fewer such attempts in this game. For the season we are .516/.273/.674. Our opposition is .431/.225/.429.
We had 26 points in the paint, 16 off turnovers, 14 “second chance” points, 2 fast break points and 17 from the bench. Our opposition had 28 points in the paint, 3 off turnovers, 8 “second chance” points, 8 fast break points and 9 from the bench. It’s interesting that Hampton had four times as many fast break points as we did. We didn’t run much and didn’t get back on defense enough. For the season we are averaging 38-21 points in the paint, 20.5-5.5 off turnovers, 20-5.5 “second chance” points, 9-7 fast break points and 21.5-14 from the bench.
We had 65 points, 26 in the paint, 15 from the arc and 16 from the line so we had 23”POP”, (points outside the paint: 65-26-16) and scored 8 points from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon, (23-15). They had 47/28/12/3= 16 POP and 4 points in the Twilight Zone. For the year we are averaging 24.5POP and 11TZ, our opposition 20.5/7. The game is so much easier when you don’t have to go to the basket for all your points.
14 of our 22 baskets were assisted (.636) and 8 of their 20 (.400). For the year we are assisting on 61.4% of our baskets to 51.4% for the opposition, who have had more assists or a higher percentage in 1 of 2 games. Assists tend to come more often from jump shots than lay-ups or dunks so the more assists you get, the more you are settling for jump shots to try to win the game which is often a bad strategy.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 53 FGA - 11 OREBs + 10 TOs + (.475 x 23) = 62.9 possessions. They were 53 -9+ 15+ (.475 x 8) = 62.8 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 63 possessions in which we scored 65 points, (1.032) and 63 possessions in which they scored 47 points, (0.746). We had 126 combined possession in this game. We’ve averaged 134.5 this year. We averaged 122 last year.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog, and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game Rakeem Christmas scored 15 points and had 1 assists for 16 “hockey points”. He is our O-Dog for this game. Rakeem Christmas has been the ODG once, BJ Johnson once.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game 20-17, 15-10, 10-11, 20-9. The average for the season is: 16.5-12, 19-9.5, 17.5-12.5, 24-10.5. We’ve won 7 quarters, lost 1 and tied none. We’ve scored at least 15 in 6 of 8 quarters and held the opposition under that 7 times.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted than those later in the game, (although sometimes we don’t score until later). In this game Chris McCullouigh got us started with a lay-up at 18:40 of the first half while Rakeem Christmas opened the second half with a tip-in at 17:58. Chris McCullough has sat us down twice, Rakeem Christmas once, and Kaleb Joseph once.
FOULS
My theory about fouls is that the team that attempts the most two point shots will tend to get fouled the most. If the numbers are as predicted or close, there’s nothing to be read into them but if there’s a big disparity, it makes you wonder about how the game was called. In this game, we attempted 35 two point shots to 34, scored 26 points in the paint to 28 and got fouled 22 times to 13, attempting 23 foul shots to 8. It sounds like Hampton coach Ed Joyner might have qa complain there. Last year we attempted 1368 two point shots to 993 for the opposition and scored 1028 PIP to 753. We committed 546 fouls to 598 and went to the line 720 to 607 times, suggesting that there should be a relationship between two points attempts and points in the point and how many fouls are called on the other team and how many times you got to the line. This year we have taken 95 two point shots and scored 76 points in the paint. We’ve been fouled 41 times and taken 43 free throws. Our opposition has taken 65 two point shots and scored 42 points in the paint. We’ve been fouled 28 times and taken only 14 free throws.
“MY MAN”
A reporter once asked Casey Stengel how come he won so many games with the Yankees. He said “Because I never play a game without “my man”. The reporter wondered who his man was. Casey suggested “You could look it up.” The reporter idd look it up and found that Yogi Berra had played in every game that season at some positon: catcher, left field, pinch-hitting, something. He was the player Stengel had the highest regard for and the most trust in, so he didn’t want to do without him. Who is Jim Boeheim’s “man” this season? The only way to tell is to see who plays the most minutes each game. In this game, it was, of all people, Trevor Cooney with 36 minutes. Of course others were close, (Kaleb Joseph with 34, Rakeem Christmas with 33). Maybe Jim has “my guys”. So far Chris McCullough has been JB’s ‘man’ once this season and Trevor Cooney once. Cooney has played the most minutes on the season with 69.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things players do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Rakeem Christmas 22NP in 33 minutes season: 42NP in 57 minutes per 40: 29.5
Chris McCullough.. 13NP in 27 minutes season: 32NP in 56 minutes per 40: 22.9
Trevor Cooney…… 8NP in 36 minutes season: 24NP in 69 minutes per 40: 13.9
Tyler Roberson……. 6NP in 16 minutes season: 17NP in 43 minutes per 40: 15.8
Michael Gbinije….. 6NP in 23 minutes season: 6NP in 23 minutes per 40: 10.4
B. J. Johnson……….. 6NP in 26 minutes season: 33NP in 52 minutes per 40: 25.4
Kaleb Joseph……….. 4NP in 34 minutes season: 11NP in 57 minutes per 40: 7.7
Ron Patterson…….. -1NP in 4 minutes season: 4NP in 27 minutes per 40: 5.9
Chinoso Obokoh….. 0NP in 1 minutes season: 2NP in 12 minutes per 40: 6.7
DNP-CD- none
INJURED
DaJuan Coleman…. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 0NP in 0minutes per 40: 0.0
SUSPENDED- none
Comment: Those averages certain changed from the Kennesaw State game, didn’t they? We’ve now been led in net points by Rakeem Christmas once and BJ Johnson once.
POSSESSION:
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 11 offensive and 27 defensive rebounds. They had 9 offensive and 23 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 11 of 34 times, (32.4%). When they missed, they got the ball 9 of 36 times (25.0%). We’ve averaged getting 46.2% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 21.6% of theirs.
Of our 10 turnovers, 6 were their steals and 4 were our own miscues. Of their 15 turnovers, 4 were Syracuse steals and 11 were their fault. We are averaging 10.5 turnovers, 5.5 unforced. Our opposition is averaging 20/10.5.
If you add our 38 rebounds to their 15 turnovers, we had 53 “manufactured possessions”. They had 32 + 10= 42, so we were +11. For the season we’ve averaged 67 to 39.5 (+27.5).
SHOOTING:
It’s still what the game is all about. It’s what this game was all about, for sure. We were 17 for 35, (.486) inside the arc, 5 for 18, (.278) outside it and 16 for 23 (.696) from the line. They were 16 for 34 (.471), 4/19 (.211) and 3/8 (.375). We had 60 two point attempts vs. Kennesaw State due to our dominance of the boards and their 25 turnovers. We had 25 fewer such attempts in this game. For the season we are .516/.273/.674. Our opposition is .431/.225/.429.
We had 26 points in the paint, 16 off turnovers, 14 “second chance” points, 2 fast break points and 17 from the bench. Our opposition had 28 points in the paint, 3 off turnovers, 8 “second chance” points, 8 fast break points and 9 from the bench. It’s interesting that Hampton had four times as many fast break points as we did. We didn’t run much and didn’t get back on defense enough. For the season we are averaging 38-21 points in the paint, 20.5-5.5 off turnovers, 20-5.5 “second chance” points, 9-7 fast break points and 21.5-14 from the bench.
We had 65 points, 26 in the paint, 15 from the arc and 16 from the line so we had 23”POP”, (points outside the paint: 65-26-16) and scored 8 points from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon, (23-15). They had 47/28/12/3= 16 POP and 4 points in the Twilight Zone. For the year we are averaging 24.5POP and 11TZ, our opposition 20.5/7. The game is so much easier when you don’t have to go to the basket for all your points.
14 of our 22 baskets were assisted (.636) and 8 of their 20 (.400). For the year we are assisting on 61.4% of our baskets to 51.4% for the opposition, who have had more assists or a higher percentage in 1 of 2 games. Assists tend to come more often from jump shots than lay-ups or dunks so the more assists you get, the more you are settling for jump shots to try to win the game which is often a bad strategy.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 53 FGA - 11 OREBs + 10 TOs + (.475 x 23) = 62.9 possessions. They were 53 -9+ 15+ (.475 x 8) = 62.8 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 63 possessions in which we scored 65 points, (1.032) and 63 possessions in which they scored 47 points, (0.746). We had 126 combined possession in this game. We’ve averaged 134.5 this year. We averaged 122 last year.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog, and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game Rakeem Christmas scored 15 points and had 1 assists for 16 “hockey points”. He is our O-Dog for this game. Rakeem Christmas has been the ODG once, BJ Johnson once.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game 20-17, 15-10, 10-11, 20-9. The average for the season is: 16.5-12, 19-9.5, 17.5-12.5, 24-10.5. We’ve won 7 quarters, lost 1 and tied none. We’ve scored at least 15 in 6 of 8 quarters and held the opposition under that 7 times.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted than those later in the game, (although sometimes we don’t score until later). In this game Chris McCullouigh got us started with a lay-up at 18:40 of the first half while Rakeem Christmas opened the second half with a tip-in at 17:58. Chris McCullough has sat us down twice, Rakeem Christmas once, and Kaleb Joseph once.
FOULS
My theory about fouls is that the team that attempts the most two point shots will tend to get fouled the most. If the numbers are as predicted or close, there’s nothing to be read into them but if there’s a big disparity, it makes you wonder about how the game was called. In this game, we attempted 35 two point shots to 34, scored 26 points in the paint to 28 and got fouled 22 times to 13, attempting 23 foul shots to 8. It sounds like Hampton coach Ed Joyner might have qa complain there. Last year we attempted 1368 two point shots to 993 for the opposition and scored 1028 PIP to 753. We committed 546 fouls to 598 and went to the line 720 to 607 times, suggesting that there should be a relationship between two points attempts and points in the point and how many fouls are called on the other team and how many times you got to the line. This year we have taken 95 two point shots and scored 76 points in the paint. We’ve been fouled 41 times and taken 43 free throws. Our opposition has taken 65 two point shots and scored 42 points in the paint. We’ve been fouled 28 times and taken only 14 free throws.
“MY MAN”
A reporter once asked Casey Stengel how come he won so many games with the Yankees. He said “Because I never play a game without “my man”. The reporter wondered who his man was. Casey suggested “You could look it up.” The reporter idd look it up and found that Yogi Berra had played in every game that season at some positon: catcher, left field, pinch-hitting, something. He was the player Stengel had the highest regard for and the most trust in, so he didn’t want to do without him. Who is Jim Boeheim’s “man” this season? The only way to tell is to see who plays the most minutes each game. In this game, it was, of all people, Trevor Cooney with 36 minutes. Of course others were close, (Kaleb Joseph with 34, Rakeem Christmas with 33). Maybe Jim has “my guys”. So far Chris McCullough has been JB’s ‘man’ once this season and Trevor Cooney once. Cooney has played the most minutes on the season with 69.