SWC75
Bored Historian
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I’ll continue doing a statistical analysis of games this year with some of the off-beat numbers I like to look at. I’ll post them after each game, probably the next day.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things players do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
B. J. Johnson……….. 27NP in 26 minutes season: 27NP in 26 minutes per 40: 41.5
Rakeem Christmas 20NP in 24 minutes season: 20NP in 24 minutes per 40: 33.3
Chris McCullough.. 19NP in 29 minutes season: 19NP in 29 minutes per 40: 26.2
Trevor Cooney…… 16NP in 33 minutes season: 16NP in 33 minutes per 40: 19.4
Tyler Roberson……. 11NP in 27 minutes season: 11NP in 27 minutes per 40: 16.2
Kaleb Joseph……….. 7NP in 23 minutes season: 7NP in 23 minutes per 40: 12.2
Ron Patterson…….. 5NP in 23 minutes season: 5NP in 23 minutes per 40: 8.7
Chinoso Okoboh….. 2NP in 11 minutes season: 2NP in 11 minutes per 40: 7.3
DNP-CD- none
INJURED
DaJuan Coleman…. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 0NP in 0minutes per 40: 0.0
SUSPENDED
Michael Gbinije….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 0NP in 0minutes per 40: 0.0
Comment: These averages should hold up throughout the season- if we played Kennesaw State each game.
Possession:
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 25 offensive and 19 defensive rebounds. They had 7 offensive and 19 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 25 of 44 times, (56.8%). When they missed, they got the ball 7 of 38 times (18.4%). We’ve averaged getting 56.8% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 26.9% of theirs.
Of our 11 turnovers, 4 were their steals and 7 were our own miscues. Of their 25 turnovers, 15 were Syracuse steals and 10 were their fault.
If you add our 56 rebounds to their 25 turnovers, we had 81 “manufactured possessions”. They had 26 + 11= 37, so we were +44.
Shooting:
It’s still what the game is all about. It’s what this game was all about, for sure. We were 32 for 60, (.533) inside the arc, 4 for 15, (.267) outside it and 13 for 20 (.650) from the line. They were 12 for 31 (.387), 5/21 (.238) and 3/6 (.500).
We had 89 points, 50 in the paint, 12 from the arc and 13 from the line so we scored 14 points from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 42-14-15-3= 10 points in the Twilight Zone. Overall, we had 26 POP: Points Outside the Paint to 25 for them. The game is so much easier when you don’t have to go to the basket for all your points.
21 of our 36 baskets were assisted (.583) and 11 of their 17 (.647). For the year we are assisting on 58.3% of our baskets to 64.7% for the opposition, who have had more assists or a higher percentage in 1 of 1 games. Assists tend to come more often from jump shots than lay-ups or dunks so the more assists you get, the more you are settling for jump shots to try to win the game which is often a bad strategy.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 75 FGA - 25 OREBs + 11 TOs + (.475 x 20) = 70.50 possessions. They were 52 -7+ 25+ (.475 x 6) = 72.85 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 71 possessions in which we scored 89 points, (1.254) and 72 possessions in which they scored 42 points, (0.583). We had 143 combined possession in this game. We averaged 122 last year.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog, and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game BJ Johnson scored 19 points and had 4 assists for 23 “hockey points”. He is our O-Dog for this game.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game 13-7, 23-9, 25-14, 28-12. The average for the season is: 13-7, 23-9, 25-14, 28-12. We’ve won 4 quarters and lost none and tied none. We’ve scored at least 15 in 3 of 4 quarters and held the opposition under that 4 times.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted than those later in the game, (although sometimes we don’t score until later). In this game Chris McCullouigh got us started with a lay-up at 19:21 of the first half while Kaleb Joseph opened the second half with a jumper at 19:41. Interesting that they are both freshman. Chris McCullough and Kaleb Joseph have both sat us down one time.
Fouls:
My theory about fouls is that the team that attempts the most two point shots will tend to get fouled the most. If the numbers are as predicted or close, there’s nothing to be read into them but if there’s a big disparity, it makes you wonder about how the game was called. In this game, we attempted 60 two point shots to 31, scored 50 points in the paint to 14 and got fouled 19 times to 15, attempting 20 fouls shots to 6. The number of fouls are a bit closer than expected but otherwise, those numbers seem acceptable. Last year we attempted 1368 two point shots to 993 for the opposition and scored 1028 PIP to 753. We committed 546 fouls to 598 and went to the line 720 to 607 times, suggesting that there should be a relationship between two points attempts and points in the point and how many fouls are called on the other team and how many times you got to the line.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things players do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
B. J. Johnson……….. 27NP in 26 minutes season: 27NP in 26 minutes per 40: 41.5
Rakeem Christmas 20NP in 24 minutes season: 20NP in 24 minutes per 40: 33.3
Chris McCullough.. 19NP in 29 minutes season: 19NP in 29 minutes per 40: 26.2
Trevor Cooney…… 16NP in 33 minutes season: 16NP in 33 minutes per 40: 19.4
Tyler Roberson……. 11NP in 27 minutes season: 11NP in 27 minutes per 40: 16.2
Kaleb Joseph……….. 7NP in 23 minutes season: 7NP in 23 minutes per 40: 12.2
Ron Patterson…….. 5NP in 23 minutes season: 5NP in 23 minutes per 40: 8.7
Chinoso Okoboh….. 2NP in 11 minutes season: 2NP in 11 minutes per 40: 7.3
DNP-CD- none
INJURED
DaJuan Coleman…. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 0NP in 0minutes per 40: 0.0
SUSPENDED
Michael Gbinije….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 0NP in 0minutes per 40: 0.0
Comment: These averages should hold up throughout the season- if we played Kennesaw State each game.
Possession:
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 25 offensive and 19 defensive rebounds. They had 7 offensive and 19 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 25 of 44 times, (56.8%). When they missed, they got the ball 7 of 38 times (18.4%). We’ve averaged getting 56.8% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 26.9% of theirs.
Of our 11 turnovers, 4 were their steals and 7 were our own miscues. Of their 25 turnovers, 15 were Syracuse steals and 10 were their fault.
If you add our 56 rebounds to their 25 turnovers, we had 81 “manufactured possessions”. They had 26 + 11= 37, so we were +44.
Shooting:
It’s still what the game is all about. It’s what this game was all about, for sure. We were 32 for 60, (.533) inside the arc, 4 for 15, (.267) outside it and 13 for 20 (.650) from the line. They were 12 for 31 (.387), 5/21 (.238) and 3/6 (.500).
We had 89 points, 50 in the paint, 12 from the arc and 13 from the line so we scored 14 points from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 42-14-15-3= 10 points in the Twilight Zone. Overall, we had 26 POP: Points Outside the Paint to 25 for them. The game is so much easier when you don’t have to go to the basket for all your points.
21 of our 36 baskets were assisted (.583) and 11 of their 17 (.647). For the year we are assisting on 58.3% of our baskets to 64.7% for the opposition, who have had more assists or a higher percentage in 1 of 1 games. Assists tend to come more often from jump shots than lay-ups or dunks so the more assists you get, the more you are settling for jump shots to try to win the game which is often a bad strategy.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 75 FGA - 25 OREBs + 11 TOs + (.475 x 20) = 70.50 possessions. They were 52 -7+ 25+ (.475 x 6) = 72.85 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 71 possessions in which we scored 89 points, (1.254) and 72 possessions in which they scored 42 points, (0.583). We had 143 combined possession in this game. We averaged 122 last year.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog, and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game BJ Johnson scored 19 points and had 4 assists for 23 “hockey points”. He is our O-Dog for this game.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game 13-7, 23-9, 25-14, 28-12. The average for the season is: 13-7, 23-9, 25-14, 28-12. We’ve won 4 quarters and lost none and tied none. We’ve scored at least 15 in 3 of 4 quarters and held the opposition under that 4 times.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted than those later in the game, (although sometimes we don’t score until later). In this game Chris McCullouigh got us started with a lay-up at 19:21 of the first half while Kaleb Joseph opened the second half with a jumper at 19:41. Interesting that they are both freshman. Chris McCullough and Kaleb Joseph have both sat us down one time.
Fouls:
My theory about fouls is that the team that attempts the most two point shots will tend to get fouled the most. If the numbers are as predicted or close, there’s nothing to be read into them but if there’s a big disparity, it makes you wonder about how the game was called. In this game, we attempted 60 two point shots to 31, scored 50 points in the paint to 14 and got fouled 19 times to 15, attempting 20 fouls shots to 6. The number of fouls are a bit closer than expected but otherwise, those numbers seem acceptable. Last year we attempted 1368 two point shots to 993 for the opposition and scored 1028 PIP to 753. We committed 546 fouls to 598 and went to the line 720 to 607 times, suggesting that there should be a relationship between two points attempts and points in the point and how many fouls are called on the other team and how many times you got to the line.
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