SWC75
Bored Historian
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I’ll continue doing a statistical analysis of games this year with some of the off-beat numbers I like to look at. I’ll post them after each game, probably the next day.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things players do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship players in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Tyler Lydon had 14 net points in 28 minutes, has 14 NP in 28 minutes for the season = 20.0NP/40
Kaleb Joseph had 9 net points in 14 minutes, has 9 NP in 14 minutes for the season = 25.7NP/40
Malachi Richardson had 9 net points in 30 minutes, has 9 NP in 30 minutes for the season = 12.0NP/40
Michael Gbinije had 9 net points in 37 minutes, has 9 NP in 37 minutes for the season = 9.7NP/40
Trevor Cooney had 7 net points in 38 minutes, has 7 NP in 38 minutes for the season = 7.4NP/40
Chinoso Obokoh had 4 net points in 15 minutes, has 4 NP in 15 minutes for the season = 10.7NP/40
Tyler Roberson had 3 net points in 21 minutes, has 3 NP in 21 minutes for the season = 5.7NP/40
Franklin Howard had 1 net points in 4 minutes, has 1 NP in 4 minutes for the season = 10.0NP/40
DaJuan Coleman had -2 net points in 13 minutes, has -2 NP in 13 minutes for the season = -6.2NP/40
DNP-CD
None
INJURED
None
SUSPENDED
None
Comments: It was an ugly game and few players looked good in the box score. But Tyler Lydon had a good all-around game with 4 points, 2 assists, 2 blocks and 3 steals to go with 11 reboudns. And Kaleb Joseph scored 8 points in only 14 minutes. Chinoso Obokoh had 4 blocks in only 15 minutes. On the downside, Tyler Roberson was shut out, missing all three of his shots, DaJuan Coleman played only 13 minutes with his biggest stat being 4 fouls while Obokoh managed to foul out in his 15 minutes. I was surprised that Franklin Howard played only 4 minutes. I think he’s one of our best players. But it’s a crowded backcourt.
The Stats: (This first entry will read a bit weirder than normal because there’s been only one game so far. I’m using the same text for every game, with just the numbers changed, with occasional comments specific to the latest game parenthesis)
POSSESSION
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 9 offensive and 31 defensive rebounds. They had 11 offensive and 27 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 9 of 36 times, (25.0%). When they missed, they got the ball 11 of 42 times (26.2%). We’ve won the rebounding battle by this measure 0 times in 1 games. For the year we’ve averaged getting 25.0% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 26.2% of theirs.
Effective offensive rebounding: We got 4 second chance points off our 9 offensive rebounds, 0.44 points per rebound. They got 8 for their 11 = 0.73. For the year we’ve averaged 0.44 points per offensive rebound: they’ve averaged 0.73. We’ve also led in this stat 0 times in 1 gams.
Of our 17 turnovers, 11 were their steals and 6 were our own miscues. Of their 15 turnovers,10 were Syracuse steals and 5 were their fault. We’ve had fewer turnovers in 0 of 1 games and fewer unforced turnovers in 0 games.
If you add our 40 rebounds to their 15 turnovers, we had 55 “manufactured possessions”. They had 38 + 17 = 55, so we were even. (We are not usually even in these early games.) We have won that battle 0 of 1 times with 1 even. For the season we’ve averaged 55 to 55 (even).
SHOOTING
It’s still what the game is all about. It’s what this game was all about, for sure. We were 7 for 18, (.389) inside the arc, 11 for 34, (.324) outside it and 10 for 12, (.833) from the line. They were 13 for 35 (.371), 2/17 (.118) and 15/22 (.682). We’ve led in two point field goal percentage in 1 of 1 games, in three point field goals percentage in 1 of 1 games, and in free throw percentage in 1 of 1 games. For the season we are .389/.324/.833. Our opposition is .371/.118/.682.
We had 10 points in the paint (PIP), 7 off turnovers (POTO), 4 “second chance” points (2CP), 10 fast break points (FBP) and 12 from the bench (BP). Our opposition had 26 points in the paint, 15 off turnovers, 8 “second chance” points, 12 fast break points and 5 from the bench. (It shows this will be a different Syracuse team when we get outscored by Lehigh in the paint 10-26. But getting out-scored off turnovers and on the fast break is more concerning: those should be this team’s specialties.) We also had 33 of Pat’s “first chance points” (1CP) (total points minus second chance points, fast break points and made free throws) to 12,
We’ve led in PIP 0 times, POTO 0 times, FCP 1 times, 2CP 0 times, FBP 0 times, and BP 1 times. For the season we are averaging 10-26 PIP, 7-15 POTO, 33-12 FCP, 4-8 SCP, 10-12 FBP and 12-5 BP.
We had 57 points, 10 in the paint, 33 from the arc and 10 from the line so we had 37 ”POP”, (points outside the paint: 57-10-10) and scored 4 points, (37 POP-33 from the arc), from what I’ll call the Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 47/26/6/15= 6 POP with 0 from the Twilight Zone. We’ve led in POP 1 times. We’ve led in TZ points 1 times. For the year we are averaging 37 POP and 4 TZ, our opposition 6/0. The game is so much easier when you don’t have to go to the basket for all your points.
13 of our 18 baskets were assisted (.722) and also 8 of their 15 (.533). For the year we are assisting on 72.2% of our baskets to 53.3% for the opposition, who have had a higher percentage in 1 of 1 games. Assists tend to come more often from jump shots than lay-ups or dunks so the more assists you get, the more you are settling for jump shots to try to win the game which is often a bad strategy but, as JB says, is the way we have to play this year because of our personnel.
You compute possessions by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 52 FGA - 9 OREBs + 17 TOs + (.475 x 12) = 65.7 possessions. They were 52 -11+ 15+ (.475 x 22) = 66.45 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 66 possessions for us and 66 for them. There were 132 combined possessions in this game. We’ve averaged 132 possessions this year.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by dividing the points scored by the number of possessions. We scored 57 points in 66 possessions (.863). They scored 47 points in 66 possessions (.712). We have, of course, led 1 of 1 games in offensive efficiency since the winning team always leads in that stat. For the year we are averaging 0.863 points per possession to 0.712 for the opposition.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game 12-9, 20-3, 12-20, 13-15. For the season we have an average of 12-9, 20-3, 12-20, 13-15. We’ve won 2 of 4 quarters with 4 even. We’ve scored 15 or more in 1 quarters and held the opposition under that 2 times.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog, and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game Michael Gbinije scored 16 points with 2 assists for 18 “hockey” points and thus was our ODOG., Michael Gbinije has been the O-Dog 1 times.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted. Malachi Richardson scored a trey 54 seconds into the 1st half. Michael Gbinije scored a lay-up 38 seconds into the second half. The longest we’d had to wait this year (54 seconds) was the first half against Lehigh. The average time we’ve had to wait is 46 seconds. Malachi Richardson has sat us down 1 times and Michael Gbinije 1 times.
Another fun fact is the “Taco Bell MVP”: the guy who gets us to 75 points so people can free, (or is it discounted?) tacos at Taco Bell. No Tacos in this one,
FOULS
My theory about fouls is that the team that attempts the most two point shots and scores the most in the paint will tend to get fouled the most. If the numbers are as predicted or close, there’s nothing to be read into them but if there’s a big disparity, it makes you wonder about how the game was called.
In this game, we attempted 18 two point shots to 35, scored 10 points in the paint to 26 and got fouled 17 times to 16, attempting 12 foul shots to 22. The ratio of two point attempts to times fouled was 1.1 for us and 2.2 for them. The ratio of points in the paint to times fouled was 0.6 for us to 1.6 for them. The ratio of free throw attempts to fouls called on the other team was 0.7 for us and 1.5 for them. (So , numerically, the calls seemed to favor us but the fact that they were going to the line more was the product of getting the ball inside more.) We’ve been fouled more often compared to our two point shots in 1 games and more often compared to our points in the paint in 1 games. We’ve gotten more fouls shots per foul in 0 games.
“MY MAN”
A reporter once asked Casey Stengel how come he won so many games with the Yankees. He said “Because I never play a game without “my man”. The reporter wondered who his man was. Casey suggested “You could look it up.” The reporter did look it up and found that Yogi Berra had played in every game that season at some positon: catcher, left field, pinch-hitting, something. He was the player Stengel had the highest regard for and the most trust in, so he didn’t want to do without him.
Who is Jim Boeheim’s “man” this season? The only way to tell is to see who plays the most minutes each game. In this game, Trevor Cooney led with 38 minutes. Trevor Cooney has led in minutes once.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things players do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship players in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Tyler Lydon had 14 net points in 28 minutes, has 14 NP in 28 minutes for the season = 20.0NP/40
Kaleb Joseph had 9 net points in 14 minutes, has 9 NP in 14 minutes for the season = 25.7NP/40
Malachi Richardson had 9 net points in 30 minutes, has 9 NP in 30 minutes for the season = 12.0NP/40
Michael Gbinije had 9 net points in 37 minutes, has 9 NP in 37 minutes for the season = 9.7NP/40
Trevor Cooney had 7 net points in 38 minutes, has 7 NP in 38 minutes for the season = 7.4NP/40
Chinoso Obokoh had 4 net points in 15 minutes, has 4 NP in 15 minutes for the season = 10.7NP/40
Tyler Roberson had 3 net points in 21 minutes, has 3 NP in 21 minutes for the season = 5.7NP/40
Franklin Howard had 1 net points in 4 minutes, has 1 NP in 4 minutes for the season = 10.0NP/40
DaJuan Coleman had -2 net points in 13 minutes, has -2 NP in 13 minutes for the season = -6.2NP/40
DNP-CD
None
INJURED
None
SUSPENDED
None
Comments: It was an ugly game and few players looked good in the box score. But Tyler Lydon had a good all-around game with 4 points, 2 assists, 2 blocks and 3 steals to go with 11 reboudns. And Kaleb Joseph scored 8 points in only 14 minutes. Chinoso Obokoh had 4 blocks in only 15 minutes. On the downside, Tyler Roberson was shut out, missing all three of his shots, DaJuan Coleman played only 13 minutes with his biggest stat being 4 fouls while Obokoh managed to foul out in his 15 minutes. I was surprised that Franklin Howard played only 4 minutes. I think he’s one of our best players. But it’s a crowded backcourt.
The Stats: (This first entry will read a bit weirder than normal because there’s been only one game so far. I’m using the same text for every game, with just the numbers changed, with occasional comments specific to the latest game parenthesis)
POSSESSION
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 9 offensive and 31 defensive rebounds. They had 11 offensive and 27 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 9 of 36 times, (25.0%). When they missed, they got the ball 11 of 42 times (26.2%). We’ve won the rebounding battle by this measure 0 times in 1 games. For the year we’ve averaged getting 25.0% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 26.2% of theirs.
Effective offensive rebounding: We got 4 second chance points off our 9 offensive rebounds, 0.44 points per rebound. They got 8 for their 11 = 0.73. For the year we’ve averaged 0.44 points per offensive rebound: they’ve averaged 0.73. We’ve also led in this stat 0 times in 1 gams.
Of our 17 turnovers, 11 were their steals and 6 were our own miscues. Of their 15 turnovers,10 were Syracuse steals and 5 were their fault. We’ve had fewer turnovers in 0 of 1 games and fewer unforced turnovers in 0 games.
If you add our 40 rebounds to their 15 turnovers, we had 55 “manufactured possessions”. They had 38 + 17 = 55, so we were even. (We are not usually even in these early games.) We have won that battle 0 of 1 times with 1 even. For the season we’ve averaged 55 to 55 (even).
SHOOTING
It’s still what the game is all about. It’s what this game was all about, for sure. We were 7 for 18, (.389) inside the arc, 11 for 34, (.324) outside it and 10 for 12, (.833) from the line. They were 13 for 35 (.371), 2/17 (.118) and 15/22 (.682). We’ve led in two point field goal percentage in 1 of 1 games, in three point field goals percentage in 1 of 1 games, and in free throw percentage in 1 of 1 games. For the season we are .389/.324/.833. Our opposition is .371/.118/.682.
We had 10 points in the paint (PIP), 7 off turnovers (POTO), 4 “second chance” points (2CP), 10 fast break points (FBP) and 12 from the bench (BP). Our opposition had 26 points in the paint, 15 off turnovers, 8 “second chance” points, 12 fast break points and 5 from the bench. (It shows this will be a different Syracuse team when we get outscored by Lehigh in the paint 10-26. But getting out-scored off turnovers and on the fast break is more concerning: those should be this team’s specialties.) We also had 33 of Pat’s “first chance points” (1CP) (total points minus second chance points, fast break points and made free throws) to 12,
We’ve led in PIP 0 times, POTO 0 times, FCP 1 times, 2CP 0 times, FBP 0 times, and BP 1 times. For the season we are averaging 10-26 PIP, 7-15 POTO, 33-12 FCP, 4-8 SCP, 10-12 FBP and 12-5 BP.
We had 57 points, 10 in the paint, 33 from the arc and 10 from the line so we had 37 ”POP”, (points outside the paint: 57-10-10) and scored 4 points, (37 POP-33 from the arc), from what I’ll call the Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 47/26/6/15= 6 POP with 0 from the Twilight Zone. We’ve led in POP 1 times. We’ve led in TZ points 1 times. For the year we are averaging 37 POP and 4 TZ, our opposition 6/0. The game is so much easier when you don’t have to go to the basket for all your points.
13 of our 18 baskets were assisted (.722) and also 8 of their 15 (.533). For the year we are assisting on 72.2% of our baskets to 53.3% for the opposition, who have had a higher percentage in 1 of 1 games. Assists tend to come more often from jump shots than lay-ups or dunks so the more assists you get, the more you are settling for jump shots to try to win the game which is often a bad strategy but, as JB says, is the way we have to play this year because of our personnel.
You compute possessions by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 52 FGA - 9 OREBs + 17 TOs + (.475 x 12) = 65.7 possessions. They were 52 -11+ 15+ (.475 x 22) = 66.45 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 66 possessions for us and 66 for them. There were 132 combined possessions in this game. We’ve averaged 132 possessions this year.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by dividing the points scored by the number of possessions. We scored 57 points in 66 possessions (.863). They scored 47 points in 66 possessions (.712). We have, of course, led 1 of 1 games in offensive efficiency since the winning team always leads in that stat. For the year we are averaging 0.863 points per possession to 0.712 for the opposition.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game 12-9, 20-3, 12-20, 13-15. For the season we have an average of 12-9, 20-3, 12-20, 13-15. We’ve won 2 of 4 quarters with 4 even. We’ve scored 15 or more in 1 quarters and held the opposition under that 2 times.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog, and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game Michael Gbinije scored 16 points with 2 assists for 18 “hockey” points and thus was our ODOG., Michael Gbinije has been the O-Dog 1 times.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted. Malachi Richardson scored a trey 54 seconds into the 1st half. Michael Gbinije scored a lay-up 38 seconds into the second half. The longest we’d had to wait this year (54 seconds) was the first half against Lehigh. The average time we’ve had to wait is 46 seconds. Malachi Richardson has sat us down 1 times and Michael Gbinije 1 times.
Another fun fact is the “Taco Bell MVP”: the guy who gets us to 75 points so people can free, (or is it discounted?) tacos at Taco Bell. No Tacos in this one,
FOULS
My theory about fouls is that the team that attempts the most two point shots and scores the most in the paint will tend to get fouled the most. If the numbers are as predicted or close, there’s nothing to be read into them but if there’s a big disparity, it makes you wonder about how the game was called.
In this game, we attempted 18 two point shots to 35, scored 10 points in the paint to 26 and got fouled 17 times to 16, attempting 12 foul shots to 22. The ratio of two point attempts to times fouled was 1.1 for us and 2.2 for them. The ratio of points in the paint to times fouled was 0.6 for us to 1.6 for them. The ratio of free throw attempts to fouls called on the other team was 0.7 for us and 1.5 for them. (So , numerically, the calls seemed to favor us but the fact that they were going to the line more was the product of getting the ball inside more.) We’ve been fouled more often compared to our two point shots in 1 games and more often compared to our points in the paint in 1 games. We’ve gotten more fouls shots per foul in 0 games.
“MY MAN”
A reporter once asked Casey Stengel how come he won so many games with the Yankees. He said “Because I never play a game without “my man”. The reporter wondered who his man was. Casey suggested “You could look it up.” The reporter did look it up and found that Yogi Berra had played in every game that season at some positon: catcher, left field, pinch-hitting, something. He was the player Stengel had the highest regard for and the most trust in, so he didn’t want to do without him.
Who is Jim Boeheim’s “man” this season? The only way to tell is to see who plays the most minutes each game. In this game, Trevor Cooney led with 38 minutes. Trevor Cooney has led in minutes once.
