SWC75
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I’ll continue doing a statistical analysis of games this year with some of the off-beat numbers I like to look at. I’ll post them after each game, probably the next day.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things players do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Tyler Roberson……. 16NP in 36 minutes season: 290NP in 803 minutes per 40: 14.4
Rakeem Christmas 15NP in 39 minutes season: 575NP in 1064 minutes per 40: 21.6
Michael Gbinije….. 6NP in 39 minutes season: 352NP in 1050 minutes per 40: 13.4
Ron Patterson…….. 3NP in 15 minutes season: 49NP in 404 minutes per 40: 4.9
Trevor Cooney…… 1NP in 39 minutes season: 270NP in 1156 minutes per 40: 9.3
B. J. Johnson……….. -1NP in 3 minutes season: 85NP in 366 minutes per 40: 9.3
Kaleb Joseph……….. -3NP in 25 minutes season: 143NP in 847 minutes per 40: 6.8
DNP-CD
Chinoso Obokoh….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 17NP in 89 minutes per 40: 7.6
INJURED
DaJuan Coleman…. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 0NP in 0 minutes per 40: 0.0
Chris McCullough.. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 171NP in 450 minutes per 40: 15.2
SUSPENDED
None
Comment: I broadly define a competent starter as a guy who averaged 10NP per 40 minutes or more. That’s three guys on the season, not counting Chris McCullough. We’ll get him back next year but will lose the biggest of the “Big Three”, so others are going to have to step up: who will it be?
Rakeem Christmas has led in net points 15 times, Tyler Roberson 6 times, (including the final 3 games), Mike Gbinije 5 times, Chris McCullough 4 times, BJ Johnson twice and Trevor Cooney once.
POSSESSION
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 14 offensive and 28 defensive rebounds. They had 12 offensive and 31 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 14 of 35 times, (31.1%). When they missed, they got the ball 12 of 40 times (30.0%). We’ve won the rebounding battle by this measure 18 times in 31 games, (and won 18 of 31 games- but they weren’t all the same games). For the year we’ve averaged getting 34.1% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 31.2% of theirs.
Effective offensive rebounding: We got 13 second chance points off our 14 offensive rebounds, 0.93 points per rebound. They got 10 for their 12 = 0.83. For the year we’ve averaged 1.00 points per offensive rebound: they’ve averaged 0.92. We’ve also led in this stat 18 times in 31 games.
Of our 12 turnovers, 7 were their steals and 5 were our own miscues. Of their 10 turnovers, 4 were Syracuse steals and 6 were their fault. We’ve had fewer turnovers in 21 of 31 games with 2 even and fewer unforced turnovers in 13 games with 6 even. Last year we had fewer turnovers in 29 of 34 games with 2 even. We are averaging 12 turnovers, 6 unforced. Our opposition is averaging 14/6.
If you add our 42 rebounds to their 10 turnovers, we had 52 “manufactured possessions”. They had 43 + 12 = 55, so we were -3. We have won that battle 20 of 31 times with 1 even. For the season we’ve averaged 51 to 47 (+4).
SHOOTING
It’s still what the game is all about. It’s what this game was all about, for sure. We were a lousy 15 for 43, (.349) inside the arc, 5 for 19, (.263) outside it and 12 for 18, (.667) from the line. They were 17 for 37 (.459), 9/26 (.346) and 10/13 (.769). We’ve led in two point field goal percentage in 15 of 31 games, (a stat we normally dominate), and in free throw percentage in only 13 games. We’ve led in three point field goals percentage, believe it or not, in 16 games – more than two point percentage. For the season we are .483/.301/.659. Our opposition is .459/.315/.706.
Two point field goal percentage is the stat that most correlates to victory and ours has been in the decline: 2009-10 .571, 2010-11 .527, 2011-12 .520, 2012-13 .486, 2013-14 .477, 2014-15 .483. I had thought it was due to the lack of an inside scoring threat but this year we had one of our best ever, (which is why it went up slightly). I think it’s probably due more to the disappearance of the fast break from our offense. It might also have to do with that area I call the Twilight Zone. Of course, for our recent teams, the whole court has been the Twilight Zone.
We had 18 points in the paint, 6 off turnovers, 13 “second chance” points, 6 fast break points and 5 from the bench. Our opposition had 28 points in the paint, 17 off turnovers, 10 “second chance” points, 15 fast break points and 11 from the bench. We also had 26 of Pat’s “first chance points” (total points minus second chance points, fast break points and made free throws) to 36,
We’ve led in PIP 19 times with 2 ties, POTO 20 times with 1 tie, FCP 17 times with 1 tie, SCP 16 times with 2 ties, FBP 15 times with 5 ties, (again, an area where we used to dominate), and BP 11 times, with 3 ties. For the season we are averaging 32-26 PIP, 15-11 POTO, 33-32 FCP, 12-11 SCP, 8-7 FBP and 9-15 BP. We’ve been out-scored from the bench this year 284-451, a 167 point difference.
We had 57 points, 18 in the paint, 15 from the arc and 12 from the line so we had 27 ”POP”, (points outside the paint: 57-18-12) and scored 9 points, (27 POP-15 from the arc), from what I’ll call the Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 71/28/27/10= 33 POP with 6 from the Twilight Zone. We’ve only led in POP 12 times but we’ve led in TZ points 17 times with 1 tie in 31 games. For the year we are averaging 23 POP and 8 TZ, our opposition 26/7. The game is so much easier when you don’t have to go to the basket for all your points. This was actually our best jump shooting performance since the first Duke game: our problems were inside in this one.
12 of our 20 baskets were assisted (.600) and also 15 of their 26 (.576), very high percentages. There wasn’t a lot of slashing to the basket in this game. For the year we are assisting on 62.1% of our baskets to 66.0% for the opposition, who have had a higher percentage in 18 of 31 games, with 1 tie. Assists tend to come more often from jump shots than lay-ups or dunks so the more assists you get, the more you are settling for jump shots to try to win the game which is often a bad strategy.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 62 FGA - 14 OREBs + 12 TOs + (.475 x 18) = 68.55 possessions. They were 63 -12+ 10+ (.475 x 13) = 70.525 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 69 possessions in which we scored only 57 points, (0.826 points per possession) and 70 possessions in which they scored 71 points, (0.833). We have, of course, led 18 of 31 games in offensive efficiency since the winning team always leads in that stat. For the year we are averaging 1.010 points per possession to 0.950 for the opposition.
Here are the best offensive teams of the last 33 years in rank order, by their efficiency rating:
1) 1988-89 1.217
2) 1987-88 1.191
3) 1985-86 1.144
4) 2011-12 1.141
5) 2009-10 1.137
6) 1989-90 1.135
7) 1986-87 1.116
8) 2013-14 1.115
9) 2010-11 and 2004-05 1.104
11) 1990-91 1.102
12) 2002-03 1.096
13) 1999-00 1.092
14) 2008-09 1.089
15) 1993-94 1.085
16) 2007-08 1.080
17) 2012-13 1.071
18) 2003-04 1.070
19) 1991-92 and 1995-96 1.062
21) 2006-07 1.055
22) 1992-93 1.054
23) 1994-95 1.037
24) 2000-01 1.034
25) 1982-83 1.032
26) 2005-06 1.026
27) 1983-84 1.024
28) 1998-99 1.021
29) 1996-97 1.020
30) 2001-02 1.016
31) 1984-85 and 1997-98 1.014
33) 2014-15 1.010 (Yep- the worst offense since SU has been posting the necessary data in their Media Guide- 33 years)
The teams ranked based on their defensive efficiency:
1) 1998-99 0.887
2) 2012-13 0.895
3) 1985-86 0.897
4) 1982-83 0.921
5) 1996-97 0.930
6) 1984-85 0.931
7) 2011-12 0.933
8) 1999-00 0.935
9) 1983-84 0.936
10) 2009-10 0.937
11) 1997-98 0.949
12) 2014-15 0.950 (not bad, actually)
13) 2006-07 and 2010-11 0.951
15) 1994-95 and 1995-96 0.951
17) 2005-06 0.961
18) 2004-05 0.964
19) 1987-88 0.966
20) 2000-01 0.968
21) 2013-14 0.972
22) 2001-02 0.976
23) 1990-91 0.979
24) 2002-03 and 2008-09 0.980
26) 1989-90 and 1993-94 0.983
28) 1992-93 0.983
29) 2003-04 0.995
30) 1986-87 and 1988-89 1.001
32) 1991-92 1.016
33) 2007-08 1.017
And here are the teams ranked by differential: offensive efficiency - defensive efficiency. Instead of recording the 1982-83 team as 1.032-0.921 = +0.111, I’ll just record that as 111 “points” and do the same for the other teams. I’ll add the team’s won-lost record and their record in games decided by less than 10 points or in overtime to complete the comparison.
1) 1985-86 247 26-6, 7-6
2) 1987-88 225 26-9, 5-8
3) 1988-89 216 30-8, 7-8
4) 2011-12 208 34-3, 15-2
5) 2009-10 200 30-5, 6-3
6) 2012-13 176 30-10, 6-6
7) 1999-00 157 26-6, 6-3
8) 2010-11 153 27-8, 12-6
9) 1989-90 152 26-7, 12-5
10) 2013-14 143 28-6, 12-5
11) 2004-05 140 27-7, 9-5
12) 1998-99 134 21-12, 3-5
13) 1990-91 123 26-6, 11-3
14) 2002-03 116 30-5, 15-2
15) 1986-87 115 31-7, 11-5
16) 1982-83 111 21-10, 6-6
17) 2008-09 109 28-10, 8-3
18) 1995-96 105 29-9, 11-5
19) 2006-07 104 24-11, 6-10
20) 1993-94 102 23-7, 10-5
21) 1996-97 90 19-13, 6-5
22) 1983-84 88 23-9, 12-5
23) 1984-85 83 22-9, 10-6
24) 1994-95 80 20-10, 8-8
25) 2003-04 75 23-8, 11-4
26) 1992-93 66 20-9, 10-6 and 2000-01 66 25-9, 9-2
28) 1997-98 65 26-9, 14-4 and 2005-06 65 23-12, 10-5
30) 2007-08 63 21-14, 9-8
31) 2014-15 60 18-13, 7-6 (Like Bill Parcells says, the record you have is the record you deserve.)
32) 1991-92 46 22-10, 13-5
33) 2001-02 40 23-13, 6-6
There were 139 combined possessions in this game. We’ve averaged 133 possessions this year. We averaged 122 last year, so the pace appears to be better than it was last season. The naito0nal average is 130 possessions per game so our games were actually faster than that, (which says more about the state of college basketball than our games: see last week’s SI)
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog, and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game Tyler Roberson scored 16 points with 0 assists for 16 “hockey” points and thus was our ODOG. Rakeem Christmas has been the O-Dog 11 times, Michael Gbinije 8 times, Trevor Cooney 7 times, BJ Johnson and Tyler Roberson twice, and Kaleb Joseph and, Chris McCullough once each.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game 11-11, 14-15, 11-29, 21-16. For the season we have an average of 16-13, 16-15, 15-17, 19-18. We’ve won 66 of 124 quarters with 4 even. We’ve scored 15 or more in 77 quarters and held the opposition under that 58 times.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted. Trevor Cooney opened with a lay-up at 18:34, and Rakeem Christmas did the same at 17:29 of the second half. The longest we’d had to wait this year (5:25) was the first half against Virginia, (who had to wait 8:15). The average time we’ve had to wait is 1 minute 28 seconds. Rakeem Christmas has sat us down 17 times, Trevor Cooney 11 times, Tyler Roberson 9 times, Michael Gbinije 8 times, Kaleb Joseph 6 times, (more than you’d think), and Chris McCullough 5 times and BJ Johnson once.
Another fun fact is the “Taco Bell MVP”: the guy who gets us to 75 points so people can free, (or is it discounted?) tacos at Taco Bell. No Tacos in this one, Trevor needed to hit one of those threes he kept clanging. Michael Gbinije and Rakeem Christmas have twice got us Tacos, Trevor Cooney, BJ Johnson and Ron Patterson have done it each once. (I wonder how many points we have to score to get real meat in the tacos?) The longest we’ve had to wait after getting close to 75 points is 3:31. We got tacos 7 times in 31 games. The 1988-89 team got fires, (100 points) 11 times in 38 games. The 1965-66 got fires 14 times in 28 games.
FOULS
My theory about fouls is that the team that attempts the most two point shots and scores the most in the paint will tend to get fouled the most. If the numbers are as predicted or close, there’s nothing to be read into them but if there’s a big disparity, it makes you wonder about how the game was called.
In this game, we attempted 43 two point shots to 37, scored 18 points in the paint to 28 and got fouled 16 times to 16, attempting 18 foul shots to 13. The ratio of two point attempts to times fouled was 2.7 for us and 2.3 for them. The ratio of points in the paint to times fouled was 1.1 for us to 1.8 for them. The ratio of free throw attempts to fouls called on the other team was 1.2 for us and 0.8 for them. No real trends there.
Last year we attempted 1368 two point shots to 993 for the opposition and scored 1028 PIP to 753. We committed 546 fouls to 598 and went to the line 720 to 607 times, suggesting that there should be a relationship between two points attempts and points in the point and how many fouls are called on the other team and how many times you got to the line. The ratio of two point attempts to times fouled was 2.3 for us and 1.8 for them. The ratio of points in the paint to times fouled was 1.7 for us to 1.4 for them. The ratio of free throw attempts to fouls called on the other team was 1.2 for us and 1.1 for them.
This year we have taken 1260 two point shots and scored 978 points in the paint. We’ve been fouled 538 times and taken 629 free throws. Our opposition has taken 1080 two point shots and scored 803 points in the paint. They’ve been fouled 472 times and taken only 517 free throws. The ratio of two point attempts to times fouled has been 2.3 for us and 2.3 for them. The ratio of points in the paint to times fouled has been 1.8 for us to 1.7 for them. The ratio of free throw attempts to fouls called on the other team has been 1.2 for us and 1.1 for them. So the officiating overall has been even-handed.
“MY MAN”
A reporter once asked Casey Stengel how come he won so many games with the Yankees. He said “Because I never play a game without “my man”. The reporter wondered who his man was. Casey suggested “You could look it up.” The reporter did look it up and found that Yogi Berra had played in every game that season at some positon: catcher, left field, pinch-hitting, something. He was the player Stengel had the highest regard for and the most trust in, so he didn’t want to do without him.
Who is Jim Boeheim’s “man” this season? The only way to tell is to see who plays the most minutes each game. In this game the “big three”, Rakeem Christmas, Trevor Cooney, and Michael Gbinije led with 39 minutes each. (It would have been 40 again but JB wanted to get the walk-ons in. Trevor Cooney has been the “Man” 19 times, Michael Gbinije 13 times, Rakeem Christmas 12 times, Chris McCullough and Kaleb Joseph 4 times each and Tyler Roberson once. Cooney still leads the team in minutes played with 1156, 92 more than any other player.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things players do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Tyler Roberson……. 16NP in 36 minutes season: 290NP in 803 minutes per 40: 14.4
Rakeem Christmas 15NP in 39 minutes season: 575NP in 1064 minutes per 40: 21.6
Michael Gbinije….. 6NP in 39 minutes season: 352NP in 1050 minutes per 40: 13.4
Ron Patterson…….. 3NP in 15 minutes season: 49NP in 404 minutes per 40: 4.9
Trevor Cooney…… 1NP in 39 minutes season: 270NP in 1156 minutes per 40: 9.3
B. J. Johnson……….. -1NP in 3 minutes season: 85NP in 366 minutes per 40: 9.3
Kaleb Joseph……….. -3NP in 25 minutes season: 143NP in 847 minutes per 40: 6.8
DNP-CD
Chinoso Obokoh….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 17NP in 89 minutes per 40: 7.6
INJURED
DaJuan Coleman…. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 0NP in 0 minutes per 40: 0.0
Chris McCullough.. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 171NP in 450 minutes per 40: 15.2
SUSPENDED
None
Comment: I broadly define a competent starter as a guy who averaged 10NP per 40 minutes or more. That’s three guys on the season, not counting Chris McCullough. We’ll get him back next year but will lose the biggest of the “Big Three”, so others are going to have to step up: who will it be?
Rakeem Christmas has led in net points 15 times, Tyler Roberson 6 times, (including the final 3 games), Mike Gbinije 5 times, Chris McCullough 4 times, BJ Johnson twice and Trevor Cooney once.
POSSESSION
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 14 offensive and 28 defensive rebounds. They had 12 offensive and 31 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 14 of 35 times, (31.1%). When they missed, they got the ball 12 of 40 times (30.0%). We’ve won the rebounding battle by this measure 18 times in 31 games, (and won 18 of 31 games- but they weren’t all the same games). For the year we’ve averaged getting 34.1% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 31.2% of theirs.
Effective offensive rebounding: We got 13 second chance points off our 14 offensive rebounds, 0.93 points per rebound. They got 10 for their 12 = 0.83. For the year we’ve averaged 1.00 points per offensive rebound: they’ve averaged 0.92. We’ve also led in this stat 18 times in 31 games.
Of our 12 turnovers, 7 were their steals and 5 were our own miscues. Of their 10 turnovers, 4 were Syracuse steals and 6 were their fault. We’ve had fewer turnovers in 21 of 31 games with 2 even and fewer unforced turnovers in 13 games with 6 even. Last year we had fewer turnovers in 29 of 34 games with 2 even. We are averaging 12 turnovers, 6 unforced. Our opposition is averaging 14/6.
If you add our 42 rebounds to their 10 turnovers, we had 52 “manufactured possessions”. They had 43 + 12 = 55, so we were -3. We have won that battle 20 of 31 times with 1 even. For the season we’ve averaged 51 to 47 (+4).
SHOOTING
It’s still what the game is all about. It’s what this game was all about, for sure. We were a lousy 15 for 43, (.349) inside the arc, 5 for 19, (.263) outside it and 12 for 18, (.667) from the line. They were 17 for 37 (.459), 9/26 (.346) and 10/13 (.769). We’ve led in two point field goal percentage in 15 of 31 games, (a stat we normally dominate), and in free throw percentage in only 13 games. We’ve led in three point field goals percentage, believe it or not, in 16 games – more than two point percentage. For the season we are .483/.301/.659. Our opposition is .459/.315/.706.
Two point field goal percentage is the stat that most correlates to victory and ours has been in the decline: 2009-10 .571, 2010-11 .527, 2011-12 .520, 2012-13 .486, 2013-14 .477, 2014-15 .483. I had thought it was due to the lack of an inside scoring threat but this year we had one of our best ever, (which is why it went up slightly). I think it’s probably due more to the disappearance of the fast break from our offense. It might also have to do with that area I call the Twilight Zone. Of course, for our recent teams, the whole court has been the Twilight Zone.
We had 18 points in the paint, 6 off turnovers, 13 “second chance” points, 6 fast break points and 5 from the bench. Our opposition had 28 points in the paint, 17 off turnovers, 10 “second chance” points, 15 fast break points and 11 from the bench. We also had 26 of Pat’s “first chance points” (total points minus second chance points, fast break points and made free throws) to 36,
We’ve led in PIP 19 times with 2 ties, POTO 20 times with 1 tie, FCP 17 times with 1 tie, SCP 16 times with 2 ties, FBP 15 times with 5 ties, (again, an area where we used to dominate), and BP 11 times, with 3 ties. For the season we are averaging 32-26 PIP, 15-11 POTO, 33-32 FCP, 12-11 SCP, 8-7 FBP and 9-15 BP. We’ve been out-scored from the bench this year 284-451, a 167 point difference.
We had 57 points, 18 in the paint, 15 from the arc and 12 from the line so we had 27 ”POP”, (points outside the paint: 57-18-12) and scored 9 points, (27 POP-15 from the arc), from what I’ll call the Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 71/28/27/10= 33 POP with 6 from the Twilight Zone. We’ve only led in POP 12 times but we’ve led in TZ points 17 times with 1 tie in 31 games. For the year we are averaging 23 POP and 8 TZ, our opposition 26/7. The game is so much easier when you don’t have to go to the basket for all your points. This was actually our best jump shooting performance since the first Duke game: our problems were inside in this one.
12 of our 20 baskets were assisted (.600) and also 15 of their 26 (.576), very high percentages. There wasn’t a lot of slashing to the basket in this game. For the year we are assisting on 62.1% of our baskets to 66.0% for the opposition, who have had a higher percentage in 18 of 31 games, with 1 tie. Assists tend to come more often from jump shots than lay-ups or dunks so the more assists you get, the more you are settling for jump shots to try to win the game which is often a bad strategy.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 62 FGA - 14 OREBs + 12 TOs + (.475 x 18) = 68.55 possessions. They were 63 -12+ 10+ (.475 x 13) = 70.525 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 69 possessions in which we scored only 57 points, (0.826 points per possession) and 70 possessions in which they scored 71 points, (0.833). We have, of course, led 18 of 31 games in offensive efficiency since the winning team always leads in that stat. For the year we are averaging 1.010 points per possession to 0.950 for the opposition.
Here are the best offensive teams of the last 33 years in rank order, by their efficiency rating:
1) 1988-89 1.217
2) 1987-88 1.191
3) 1985-86 1.144
4) 2011-12 1.141
5) 2009-10 1.137
6) 1989-90 1.135
7) 1986-87 1.116
8) 2013-14 1.115
9) 2010-11 and 2004-05 1.104
11) 1990-91 1.102
12) 2002-03 1.096
13) 1999-00 1.092
14) 2008-09 1.089
15) 1993-94 1.085
16) 2007-08 1.080
17) 2012-13 1.071
18) 2003-04 1.070
19) 1991-92 and 1995-96 1.062
21) 2006-07 1.055
22) 1992-93 1.054
23) 1994-95 1.037
24) 2000-01 1.034
25) 1982-83 1.032
26) 2005-06 1.026
27) 1983-84 1.024
28) 1998-99 1.021
29) 1996-97 1.020
30) 2001-02 1.016
31) 1984-85 and 1997-98 1.014
33) 2014-15 1.010 (Yep- the worst offense since SU has been posting the necessary data in their Media Guide- 33 years)
The teams ranked based on their defensive efficiency:
1) 1998-99 0.887
2) 2012-13 0.895
3) 1985-86 0.897
4) 1982-83 0.921
5) 1996-97 0.930
6) 1984-85 0.931
7) 2011-12 0.933
8) 1999-00 0.935
9) 1983-84 0.936
10) 2009-10 0.937
11) 1997-98 0.949
12) 2014-15 0.950 (not bad, actually)
13) 2006-07 and 2010-11 0.951
15) 1994-95 and 1995-96 0.951
17) 2005-06 0.961
18) 2004-05 0.964
19) 1987-88 0.966
20) 2000-01 0.968
21) 2013-14 0.972
22) 2001-02 0.976
23) 1990-91 0.979
24) 2002-03 and 2008-09 0.980
26) 1989-90 and 1993-94 0.983
28) 1992-93 0.983
29) 2003-04 0.995
30) 1986-87 and 1988-89 1.001
32) 1991-92 1.016
33) 2007-08 1.017
And here are the teams ranked by differential: offensive efficiency - defensive efficiency. Instead of recording the 1982-83 team as 1.032-0.921 = +0.111, I’ll just record that as 111 “points” and do the same for the other teams. I’ll add the team’s won-lost record and their record in games decided by less than 10 points or in overtime to complete the comparison.
1) 1985-86 247 26-6, 7-6
2) 1987-88 225 26-9, 5-8
3) 1988-89 216 30-8, 7-8
4) 2011-12 208 34-3, 15-2
5) 2009-10 200 30-5, 6-3
6) 2012-13 176 30-10, 6-6
7) 1999-00 157 26-6, 6-3
8) 2010-11 153 27-8, 12-6
9) 1989-90 152 26-7, 12-5
10) 2013-14 143 28-6, 12-5
11) 2004-05 140 27-7, 9-5
12) 1998-99 134 21-12, 3-5
13) 1990-91 123 26-6, 11-3
14) 2002-03 116 30-5, 15-2
15) 1986-87 115 31-7, 11-5
16) 1982-83 111 21-10, 6-6
17) 2008-09 109 28-10, 8-3
18) 1995-96 105 29-9, 11-5
19) 2006-07 104 24-11, 6-10
20) 1993-94 102 23-7, 10-5
21) 1996-97 90 19-13, 6-5
22) 1983-84 88 23-9, 12-5
23) 1984-85 83 22-9, 10-6
24) 1994-95 80 20-10, 8-8
25) 2003-04 75 23-8, 11-4
26) 1992-93 66 20-9, 10-6 and 2000-01 66 25-9, 9-2
28) 1997-98 65 26-9, 14-4 and 2005-06 65 23-12, 10-5
30) 2007-08 63 21-14, 9-8
31) 2014-15 60 18-13, 7-6 (Like Bill Parcells says, the record you have is the record you deserve.)
32) 1991-92 46 22-10, 13-5
33) 2001-02 40 23-13, 6-6
There were 139 combined possessions in this game. We’ve averaged 133 possessions this year. We averaged 122 last year, so the pace appears to be better than it was last season. The naito0nal average is 130 possessions per game so our games were actually faster than that, (which says more about the state of college basketball than our games: see last week’s SI)
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog, and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game Tyler Roberson scored 16 points with 0 assists for 16 “hockey” points and thus was our ODOG. Rakeem Christmas has been the O-Dog 11 times, Michael Gbinije 8 times, Trevor Cooney 7 times, BJ Johnson and Tyler Roberson twice, and Kaleb Joseph and, Chris McCullough once each.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game 11-11, 14-15, 11-29, 21-16. For the season we have an average of 16-13, 16-15, 15-17, 19-18. We’ve won 66 of 124 quarters with 4 even. We’ve scored 15 or more in 77 quarters and held the opposition under that 58 times.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted. Trevor Cooney opened with a lay-up at 18:34, and Rakeem Christmas did the same at 17:29 of the second half. The longest we’d had to wait this year (5:25) was the first half against Virginia, (who had to wait 8:15). The average time we’ve had to wait is 1 minute 28 seconds. Rakeem Christmas has sat us down 17 times, Trevor Cooney 11 times, Tyler Roberson 9 times, Michael Gbinije 8 times, Kaleb Joseph 6 times, (more than you’d think), and Chris McCullough 5 times and BJ Johnson once.
Another fun fact is the “Taco Bell MVP”: the guy who gets us to 75 points so people can free, (or is it discounted?) tacos at Taco Bell. No Tacos in this one, Trevor needed to hit one of those threes he kept clanging. Michael Gbinije and Rakeem Christmas have twice got us Tacos, Trevor Cooney, BJ Johnson and Ron Patterson have done it each once. (I wonder how many points we have to score to get real meat in the tacos?) The longest we’ve had to wait after getting close to 75 points is 3:31. We got tacos 7 times in 31 games. The 1988-89 team got fires, (100 points) 11 times in 38 games. The 1965-66 got fires 14 times in 28 games.
FOULS
My theory about fouls is that the team that attempts the most two point shots and scores the most in the paint will tend to get fouled the most. If the numbers are as predicted or close, there’s nothing to be read into them but if there’s a big disparity, it makes you wonder about how the game was called.
In this game, we attempted 43 two point shots to 37, scored 18 points in the paint to 28 and got fouled 16 times to 16, attempting 18 foul shots to 13. The ratio of two point attempts to times fouled was 2.7 for us and 2.3 for them. The ratio of points in the paint to times fouled was 1.1 for us to 1.8 for them. The ratio of free throw attempts to fouls called on the other team was 1.2 for us and 0.8 for them. No real trends there.
Last year we attempted 1368 two point shots to 993 for the opposition and scored 1028 PIP to 753. We committed 546 fouls to 598 and went to the line 720 to 607 times, suggesting that there should be a relationship between two points attempts and points in the point and how many fouls are called on the other team and how many times you got to the line. The ratio of two point attempts to times fouled was 2.3 for us and 1.8 for them. The ratio of points in the paint to times fouled was 1.7 for us to 1.4 for them. The ratio of free throw attempts to fouls called on the other team was 1.2 for us and 1.1 for them.
This year we have taken 1260 two point shots and scored 978 points in the paint. We’ve been fouled 538 times and taken 629 free throws. Our opposition has taken 1080 two point shots and scored 803 points in the paint. They’ve been fouled 472 times and taken only 517 free throws. The ratio of two point attempts to times fouled has been 2.3 for us and 2.3 for them. The ratio of points in the paint to times fouled has been 1.8 for us to 1.7 for them. The ratio of free throw attempts to fouls called on the other team has been 1.2 for us and 1.1 for them. So the officiating overall has been even-handed.
“MY MAN”
A reporter once asked Casey Stengel how come he won so many games with the Yankees. He said “Because I never play a game without “my man”. The reporter wondered who his man was. Casey suggested “You could look it up.” The reporter did look it up and found that Yogi Berra had played in every game that season at some positon: catcher, left field, pinch-hitting, something. He was the player Stengel had the highest regard for and the most trust in, so he didn’t want to do without him.
Who is Jim Boeheim’s “man” this season? The only way to tell is to see who plays the most minutes each game. In this game the “big three”, Rakeem Christmas, Trevor Cooney, and Michael Gbinije led with 39 minutes each. (It would have been 40 again but JB wanted to get the walk-ons in. Trevor Cooney has been the “Man” 19 times, Michael Gbinije 13 times, Rakeem Christmas 12 times, Chris McCullough and Kaleb Joseph 4 times each and Tyler Roberson once. Cooney still leads the team in minutes played with 1156, 92 more than any other player.
