Net Points, etc., after Pittsburgh | Syracusefan.com

Net Points, etc., after Pittsburgh

SWC75

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I’ll continue doing a statistical analysis of games this year with some of the off-beat numbers I like to look at. I’ll post them after each game, probably the next day.

The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.

Of course, there are things players do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.

Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):

Rakeem Christmas 24NP in 40 minutes season: 462NP in 775 minutes per 40: 23.8
Michael Gbinije….. 21NP in 38 minutes season: 237NP in 740 minutes per 40: 12.8
Tyler Roberson……. 5NP in 33 minutes season: 197NP in 557 minutes per 40: 14.1
Trevor Cooney…… 5NP in 38 minutes season: 220NP in 862 minutes per 40: 10.2
Ron Patterson…….. 4NP in 16 minutes season: 26NP in 290 minutes per 40: 3.6
Kaleb Joseph……….. 3NP in 28 minutes season: 134NP in 676 minutes per 40: 7.9
B. J. Johnson……….. -1NP in 4 minutes season: 55NP in 221 minutes per 40: 10.0

DNP-CD- none
Chinoso Obokoh….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 16NP in 59 minutes per 40: 10.8

INJURED
DaJuan Coleman…. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 0NP in 0 minutes per 40: 0.0
Chris McCullough.. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 171NP in 450 minutes per 40: 15.2

SUSPENDED
None

Comment: The Big Three was the Big Two in this game. I had hoped we were edging toward having a Big Four but Roberson has slide back since the break and Cooney, after his opening trey, was ineffective. It’s kind of a miracle that we were even close in this game, (see below). We were out-shot from two point range, (a hefty 57.9% to 56.8%), were out-rebounded 33-35 and had more turnovers, 14-10, all important stats.

Rakeem Christmas has led in net points 13 times, Chris McCullough 4 times, Mike Gbinije and Tyler Roberson 3 times, Trevor Cooney and BJ Johnson once.

POSSESSION

Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 12 offensive and 21 defensive rebounds. They had 16 offensive and 19 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 12 of 31 times, (38.7%). When they missed, they got the ball 16 of 37 times (43.2%). We’ve won the rebounding battle by this measure 15 times in 23 games. For the year we’ve averaged getting 35.0% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 31.0% of theirs.

Effective offensive rebounding: Neither team did much offensive rebounding or did much with the ball once they got it. We got 16 second chance points off our 12 offensive rebounds, 1.333 points per rebound. They got 21 for their 16, 1.313. For the year we’ve averaged 1.02 points per offensive rebound: they’ve averaged 0.89. We’ve led in this stat 14 times in 23 games.

Of our 14 turnovers, 9 were their steals and 5 were our own miscues. Of their 10 turnovers, 5 were Syracuse steals and 5 were their fault. We’ve had fewer turnovers in 16 of 23 games with one even and fewer unforced turnovers in 11 games with 5 even. Last year we had fewer turnovers in 29 of 34 games with 2 even. We are averaging 12 turnovers, 6 unforced, Our opposition is averaging 15/6.

If you add our 33 rebounds to their 10 turnovers, we had 43 “manufactured possessions”. They had 35 + 14= 49, so we were -6. We have won that battle 16 of 23 times with one even. For the season we’ve averaged 52 to 47 (+5).


SHOOTING

It’s still what the game is all about. It’s what this game was all about, for sure. We were 21 for 37, (.568) inside the arc, 5 for 15, (.333) outside it and 20 for 30, (.667) from the line. They were 22 for 38 (.579), 7/22 (.318) and 18/28 (.643). We’ve led in two point field goal percentage in 13 of 23 games, and in free throw percentage in 11 games (but only 5 times in the last 16). We’ve led in three point field goals percentage, believe it or not, in 14 games. For the season we are .488/.310/.651. Our opposition is .443/.314/.695.

We had 38 points in the paint, 15 off turnovers,16 “second chance” points, 8 fast break points and 3 from the bench. Our opposition had 26 points in the paint, 18 off turnovers, 21 “second chance” points, 4 fast break points and 33 from the bench. We also had 33 of Pat’s “first chance points” (Total points minus second chance points, fast break points and made free throws) to 40.

We’ve led in PIP 15 times with 2 ties, POTO 15 times, FCP 13 times with a tie, SCP 13 times, FBP 13 times with 4 ties and BP 8 times, with 2 ties. For the season we are averaging 32-24 PIP, 16-12 POTO, 33-31 FCP, 12-11 SCP,9-6 FBP and 9-16 BP.

We had 77 points, 38 in the paint, 15 from the arc and 20 from the line so we had 19 ”POP”, (points outside the paint: 77-38-20) and scored 4 points, (19 POP-15 from the arc), from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 83/26/21/18= 39 POP with 18 from the Twilight Zone. We’ve only led in POP 9 times but we’ve led in TZ points 13 times with 1 tie in 23 games. For the year we are averaging 23 POP and 9 TZ, our opposition 27/7. The game is so much easier when you don’t have to go to the basket for all your points. We’ve had less POPt 6 times in the last 5 games.

15 of our 26 baskets were assisted (.577) and also 22 of their 29 (.759). For the year we are assisting on 63.3% of our baskets to 65.3% for the opposition, who have had a higher percentage in 8 of 20 games, with one tie. Assists tend to come more often from jump shots than lay-ups or dunks so the more assists you get, the more you are settling for jump shots to try to win the game which is often a bad strategy. I think it’s interesting that we have a high assist percentage with our “point guard by committee” situation. The team is at least sharing the ball well. We’ve lost this stat 6 times in a row.

You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 52 FGA - 12 OREBs + 14 TOs + (.475 x 30) = 68.25 possessions. They were 60 -16+ 10+ (.475 x 28) = 67.3 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 68 possessions in which we scored 77 points, (1.132) and 68 possessions in which they scored 83 points, (1.239). We have, of course, led 15 of 23 games in offensive efficiency since the winning team always leads in that stat. For the year we are averaging 1.024 points per possession to 0.928 for the opposition. We’re used to our problems being on offense but right now our biggest problem is that we aren’t a very defensive team, at least compared to previous SU teams.

We had 135 combined possessions in this game. We’ve averaged 134 possessions this year. We averaged 122 last year, so the pace appears to be better than it was last season.

Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog, and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game Michael Gbinije was scored 23 points with 3 assists for 26 “hockey” points and thus was our ODOG. Rakeem Christmas has been the O-Dog 9 times, Trevor Cooney and Michael Gbinije 6 times, BJ Johnson, Kaleb Joseph and Chris McCullough once each.

Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game 20-15, 20-23, 18-19, 19-26. For the season we have an average of 16-13, 18-14, 16-16, 19-18. We’ve won 53 of 92 quarters with 3 even. We’ve scored 15 or more in 60 quarters and held the opposition under that 45 times.

I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted. Trevor Cooney sat us down in the first half with a trey at 18:53 while Tyler Roberson did the same at 19:08 of the second half. The longest we’d had to wait this year (5:02) was the first half against Miami. The average time we’ve had to wait is 1 minute 27 seconds. Rakeem Christmas has sat us down 14 times, Trevor Cooney 8 times, and Michael Gbinije 7 times, Kaleb Joseph, Chris McCullough and Tyler Roberson 5 times.

Another fun fact is the “Taco Bell MVP”: the guy who gets us to 75 points so people can free, (or is it discounted?) tacos at Taco Bell. Rakeem Christmas got us to 75 points with a couple of free throws with 1:33 left. We’d been waiting since Rak hit a free throw at 2:49, a total of 76 seconds. Michael Gbinije and Rakeem Christmas have twice got us Tacos, Trevor Cooney, BJ Johnson and Ron Patterson have done it each once. (I wonder how many point we have to score to get real meat in the tacos?) The longest we’ve had to wait after getting close to 75 points is 3:31.

FOULS

My theory about fouls is that the team that attempts the most two point shots and scores the most in the paint will tend to get fouled the most. If the numbers are as predicted or close, there’s nothing to be read into them but if there’s a big disparity, it makes you wonder about how the game was called.

In this game, we attempted 37 two point shots to 38, scored 38 points in the paint to 26 and got fouled 22 times to 20, attempting 30 foul shots to 28. The ratio of two point attempts to times fouled was 1.85 for us and 1.7 for them. The ratio of points in the paint to times fouled was 1.9 for us to 1.2 for them. The ratio of free throw attempts to fouls called on the other team was 1.5 for us and 1.3 for them. Those are not huge differences, but they favored Pittsburgh slightly.

Last year we attempted 1368 two point shots to 993 for the opposition and scored 1028 PIP to 753. We committed 546 fouls to 598 and went to the line 720 to 607 times, suggesting that there should be a relationship between two points attempts and points in the point and how many fouls are called on the other team and how many times you got to the line. The ratio of two point attempts to times fouled was 2.3 for us and 1.8 for them. The ratio of points in the paint to times fouled was 1.7 for us to 1.4 for them. The ratio of free throw attempts to fouls called on the other team was 1.2 for us and 1.1 for them.

This year we have taken 965 two point shots and scored 746 points in the paint. We’ve been fouled 418 times and taken 486 free throws. Our opposition has taken 797 two point shots and scored 554 points in the paint. They’ve been fouled 357 times and taken only 398 free throws. The ratio of two point attempts to times fouled has been 2.3 for us and 2.2 for them. The ratio of points in the paint to times fouled has been 1.8 for us to 1.6 for them. The ratio of free throw attempts to fouls called on the other team has been 1.2 for us and 1.1 for them. So the officiating overall has been pretty even-handed.


“MY MAN”

A reporter once asked Casey Stengel how come he won so many games with the Yankees. He said “Because I never play a game without “my man”. The reporter wondered who his man was. Casey suggested “You could look it up.” The reporter did look it up and found that Yogi Berra had played in every game that season at some positon: catcher, left field, pinch-hitting, something. He was the player Stengel had the highest regard for and the most trust in, so he didn’t want to do without him.

Who is Jim Boeheim’s “man” this season? The only way to tell is to see who plays the most minutes each game. In this game Rakeem Christmas played all 40 minutes. We’ve had at least one player play the full game in each of the last 12 games and a a total of 22 players have done so in that span. Trevor Cooney has been the “Man” 14 times, Rakeem Christmas 8 times, Michael Gbinije 7 times, Chris McCullough and Kaleb Joseph 4 times each and Tyler Roberson once. Cooney still leads the team in minutes played with 862, 87 more than any other player. Encouragingly, the guy in second place is Rakeem Christmas, who earlier had a problem staying in games because of excessive fouling.
 

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