SWC75
Bored Historian
- Joined
- Aug 26, 2011
- Messages
- 32,916
- Like
- 63,353
I’ll continue doing a statistical analysis of games this year with some of the off-beat numbers I like to look at. I’ll post them after each game, probably the next day.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things players do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship players in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Michael Gbinije had 21 net points in 38 minutes, has 30 NP in 75 minutes for the season = 16.0NP/40
Tyler Lydon had 17 net points in 31 minutes, has 31 NP in 59 minutes for the season = 21.0NP/40
Trevor Cooney had 15 net points in 39 minutes, has 22 NP in 77 minutes for the season = 11.4NP/40
Malachi Richardson had 8 net points in 35 minutes, has 17 NP in 65 minutes for the season = 10.5NP/40
DaJuan Coleman had 7 net points in 14 minutes, has 5 NP in 27 minutes for the season = -7.4NP/40
Tyler Roberson had 7 net points in 29 minutes, has 10 NP in 50 minutes for the season = 8.0NP/40
Franklin Howard had 1 net points in 9 minutes, has 2 NP in 13 minutes for the season = 6.2NP/40
Kaleb Joseph had 0 net points in 4 minutes, has 9 NP in 18 minutes for the season = 20.0NP/40
Chinoso Obokoh had -1 net points in 1 minutes, has 3 NP in 16 minutes for the season = 7.5NP/40
DNP-CD
None
INJURED
None
SUSPENDED
None
Comments: Michael Gbinije and Trevor Cooney, the two seniors took overt this game down the stretch. It looked a lot like the 2013 Indiana game with the two of them, especially Gbinije, just taking the ball, driving off a pick and beating the defense to the basket. The key for Gbinije was being told that he’s the guy that has to do it for this team. They key for Cooney was that he was mediocre as a three point guy but when he uses all his skills, he’s a pretty darn good all-around player. Richardson and Lydon are the real deal and will join them as mainstays as the season progresses. Now we need something more form Roberson, who apparently needs a fire lit under him and Coleman, who has to figure out how to play on this level, something he was unable to do while on the shelf for two years.
The Stats:
POSSESSION
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 15 offensive and 18 defensive rebounds. They had 24 offensive and 19 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 15 of 34 times, (44.1%, which is good). When they missed, they got the ball 24 of 42 times (a phenomenal 57.1%). We’ve won the rebounding battle by this measure 0 times in 2 games. For the year we’ve averaged getting 34.3% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 41.7% of theirs.
Effective offensive rebounding: We got 10 second chance points off our 15 offensive rebounds, 0.67 points per rebound. They got 29 for their 24 = 1.21. For the year we’ve averaged 0.58 points per offensive rebound: they’ve averaged 1.06. We’ve also led in this stat 0 times in 2 games.
Of our 12 turnovers, 8 were their steals and 4 were our own miscues. Of their 17 turnovers,14 were Syracuse steals and 3 were their fault. We’ve had fewer turnovers in 1 of 2 games and fewer unforced turnovers in 0 games of 2.
If you add our 33 rebounds to their 17 turnovers, we had 50 “manufactured possessions”. They had 43 + 12 = 55. (We usually win this stat big in these early games.) We have won that battle 0 of 2 times with 1 even. For the season we’ve averaged 52.5 MP to 55.
SHOOTING
It’s still what the game is all about. It’s what this game was all about, for sure. We were 15 for 28, (.536) inside the arc, 9 for 24, (.375) outside it and 22 for 32, (.688) from the line. They were 13 for 34 (.382), 11/32 (.344) and 7/9 (.778). We’ve led in two point field goal percentage in 2 of 2 games, in three point field goals percentage in 2 of 2 games, and in free throw percentage in 1 of 2 games. For the season we are .478/.345/.727. Our opposition is .377/.265/.710.
We had 28 points in the paint (PIP), 23 off turnovers (POTO), 10 “second chance” points (2CP), 8 fast break points (FBP) and 13 from the bench (BP). Our opposition had 26 points in the paint, 17 off turnovers, 29 “second chance” points, 6 fast break points and 17 from the bench. We also had 39 of Pat’s “first chance points” (FCP) (total points minus second chance points, fast break points and made free throws) to 24,
We’ve led in PIP 1 times, POTO 0 times, FCP 2 times, 2CP 0 times, FBP 1 times, and BP 1 times. For the season we are averaging 19-26 PIP, 15-16 POTO, 36-18 FCP, 7-18.5 SCP, 18-18 FBP and 13.5-11BP.
We had 79 points, 28 in the paint, 27 from the arc and 22 from the line so we had 29 ”POP”, (points outside the paint: 79-28-22) and scored 2 points, (29 POP-27 from the arc), from what I’ll call the Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 66/26/33/7= 33 POP with 0 from the Twilight Zone, (nobody wanted to go there in this game). We’ve led in POP 1 times. We’ve led in TZ points 2 times. For the year we are averaging 33 POP and 4 TZ, our opposition 19.5/0 (yes, neither opponent has hit a shot from the TZ). The game is so much easier when you don’t have to go to the basket for all your points.
15 of our 24 baskets were assisted (.625) and also 16 of their 24 (.667). For the year we are assisting on 66.7% of our baskets to 61.5% for the opposition, who have had a higher percentage in 1 of 2 games. Assists tend to come more often from jump shots than lay-ups or dunks so the more assists you get, the more you are settling for jump shots to try to win the game which is often a bad strategy but, as JB says, is the way we have to play this year because of our personnel.
You compute possessions by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 52 FGA - 15 OREBs + 12 TOs + (.475 x 32) = 64.2 possessions. They were 66 -24+ 17+ (.475 x 9) = 63.275 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 64 possessions for us and 63 for them. There were 127 combined possessions in this game. We’ve averaged 129.5 possession games this year.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by dividing the points scored by the number of possessions. We scored 79 points in 64 possessions (1.234 after .863 against Lehigh). They scored 66 points in 63 possessions (1.048). We have, of course, led 2 of 2 games in offensive efficiency since the winning team always leads in that stat. For the year we are averaging 1.046 points per possession to 0.876 for the opposition.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game 10-21, 19-14, 22-19, 28-12. For the season we have an average of 11.0-15.0, 19.5-8.5, 17-19.5, 20.5-13.5. We’ve won 2 of 4 quarters with 4 even. We’ve scored 15 or more in 1 quarters and held the opposition under that 2 times.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog, and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game Michael Gbinije scored 23 points with 6 assists for 29 “hockey” points and thus was our ODOG., Michael Gbinije has been the O-Dog 2 times.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted. Malachi Richardson scored a trey 1 minute 31 seconds into the 1st half. DaJuan Coleman scored a lay-up 18 seconds into the second half. The longest we’d had to wait this year (1m 31 seconds) was the first half against St. Bonaventure. The average time we’ve had to wait is 50 seconds. Malachi Richardson has sat us down 2 times and DaJuan Coleman and Michael Gbinije 1 times. We’ve been sat down by two treys and 2 lay-ups.
Another fun fact is the “Taco Bell MVP”: the guy who gets us to 70 points, (it used to be 75), so people can get free, (or is it discounted?) tacos at Taco Bell. Michael Gbinije hit a free throw with 3:02 left to get us tacos.
FOULS
My theory about fouls is that the team that attempts the most two point shots and scores the most in the paint will tend to get fouled the most. If the numbers are as predicted or close, there’s nothing to be read into them but if there’s a big disparity, it makes you wonder about how the game was called.
In this game, we attempted 28 two point shots to 34, scored 28 points in the paint to 26 and got fouled 24 times to 15, attempting 32 foul shots to 9. The ratio of two point attempts to times fouled was 1.2 for us and 2.2 for them. The ratio of points in the paint to times fouled was 1.2 for us to 1.7 for them. The ratio of free throw attempts to fouls called on the other team was 1.3 for us and 0.6 for them. (So , numerically, the calls seemed to favor us. )
We are averaging 1.1 two point shots per foul, 0.9 points in the paint per foul and attempted 1.1 foul shots per foul. They are averaging 2.2 two point shots per foul, 1.7points in the paint per foul and attempted 1.0 foul shots per foul. We’ve been fouled more often compared to our two point shots in 2 games and more often compared to our points in the paint in 2 games. We’ve gotten more fouls shots per foul in 1 games.
“MY MAN”
A reporter once asked Casey Stengel how come he won so many games with the Yankees. He said “Because I never play a game without “my man”. The reporter wondered who his man was. Casey
suggested “You could look it up.” The reporter did look it up and found that Yogi Berra had played in every game that season at some positon: catcher, left field, pinch-hitting, something. He was the player Stengel had the highest regard for and the most trust in, so he didn’t want to do without him.
Who is Jim Boeheim’s “man” this season? The only way to tell is to see who plays the most minutes each game. In this game, Trevor Cooney led with 39 minutes. Trevor Cooney has led in minutes twice.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things players do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship players in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Michael Gbinije had 21 net points in 38 minutes, has 30 NP in 75 minutes for the season = 16.0NP/40
Tyler Lydon had 17 net points in 31 minutes, has 31 NP in 59 minutes for the season = 21.0NP/40
Trevor Cooney had 15 net points in 39 minutes, has 22 NP in 77 minutes for the season = 11.4NP/40
Malachi Richardson had 8 net points in 35 minutes, has 17 NP in 65 minutes for the season = 10.5NP/40
DaJuan Coleman had 7 net points in 14 minutes, has 5 NP in 27 minutes for the season = -7.4NP/40
Tyler Roberson had 7 net points in 29 minutes, has 10 NP in 50 minutes for the season = 8.0NP/40
Franklin Howard had 1 net points in 9 minutes, has 2 NP in 13 minutes for the season = 6.2NP/40
Kaleb Joseph had 0 net points in 4 minutes, has 9 NP in 18 minutes for the season = 20.0NP/40
Chinoso Obokoh had -1 net points in 1 minutes, has 3 NP in 16 minutes for the season = 7.5NP/40
DNP-CD
None
INJURED
None
SUSPENDED
None
Comments: Michael Gbinije and Trevor Cooney, the two seniors took overt this game down the stretch. It looked a lot like the 2013 Indiana game with the two of them, especially Gbinije, just taking the ball, driving off a pick and beating the defense to the basket. The key for Gbinije was being told that he’s the guy that has to do it for this team. They key for Cooney was that he was mediocre as a three point guy but when he uses all his skills, he’s a pretty darn good all-around player. Richardson and Lydon are the real deal and will join them as mainstays as the season progresses. Now we need something more form Roberson, who apparently needs a fire lit under him and Coleman, who has to figure out how to play on this level, something he was unable to do while on the shelf for two years.
The Stats:
POSSESSION
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 15 offensive and 18 defensive rebounds. They had 24 offensive and 19 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 15 of 34 times, (44.1%, which is good). When they missed, they got the ball 24 of 42 times (a phenomenal 57.1%). We’ve won the rebounding battle by this measure 0 times in 2 games. For the year we’ve averaged getting 34.3% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 41.7% of theirs.
Effective offensive rebounding: We got 10 second chance points off our 15 offensive rebounds, 0.67 points per rebound. They got 29 for their 24 = 1.21. For the year we’ve averaged 0.58 points per offensive rebound: they’ve averaged 1.06. We’ve also led in this stat 0 times in 2 games.
Of our 12 turnovers, 8 were their steals and 4 were our own miscues. Of their 17 turnovers,14 were Syracuse steals and 3 were their fault. We’ve had fewer turnovers in 1 of 2 games and fewer unforced turnovers in 0 games of 2.
If you add our 33 rebounds to their 17 turnovers, we had 50 “manufactured possessions”. They had 43 + 12 = 55. (We usually win this stat big in these early games.) We have won that battle 0 of 2 times with 1 even. For the season we’ve averaged 52.5 MP to 55.
SHOOTING
It’s still what the game is all about. It’s what this game was all about, for sure. We were 15 for 28, (.536) inside the arc, 9 for 24, (.375) outside it and 22 for 32, (.688) from the line. They were 13 for 34 (.382), 11/32 (.344) and 7/9 (.778). We’ve led in two point field goal percentage in 2 of 2 games, in three point field goals percentage in 2 of 2 games, and in free throw percentage in 1 of 2 games. For the season we are .478/.345/.727. Our opposition is .377/.265/.710.
We had 28 points in the paint (PIP), 23 off turnovers (POTO), 10 “second chance” points (2CP), 8 fast break points (FBP) and 13 from the bench (BP). Our opposition had 26 points in the paint, 17 off turnovers, 29 “second chance” points, 6 fast break points and 17 from the bench. We also had 39 of Pat’s “first chance points” (FCP) (total points minus second chance points, fast break points and made free throws) to 24,
We’ve led in PIP 1 times, POTO 0 times, FCP 2 times, 2CP 0 times, FBP 1 times, and BP 1 times. For the season we are averaging 19-26 PIP, 15-16 POTO, 36-18 FCP, 7-18.5 SCP, 18-18 FBP and 13.5-11BP.
We had 79 points, 28 in the paint, 27 from the arc and 22 from the line so we had 29 ”POP”, (points outside the paint: 79-28-22) and scored 2 points, (29 POP-27 from the arc), from what I’ll call the Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 66/26/33/7= 33 POP with 0 from the Twilight Zone, (nobody wanted to go there in this game). We’ve led in POP 1 times. We’ve led in TZ points 2 times. For the year we are averaging 33 POP and 4 TZ, our opposition 19.5/0 (yes, neither opponent has hit a shot from the TZ). The game is so much easier when you don’t have to go to the basket for all your points.
15 of our 24 baskets were assisted (.625) and also 16 of their 24 (.667). For the year we are assisting on 66.7% of our baskets to 61.5% for the opposition, who have had a higher percentage in 1 of 2 games. Assists tend to come more often from jump shots than lay-ups or dunks so the more assists you get, the more you are settling for jump shots to try to win the game which is often a bad strategy but, as JB says, is the way we have to play this year because of our personnel.
You compute possessions by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 52 FGA - 15 OREBs + 12 TOs + (.475 x 32) = 64.2 possessions. They were 66 -24+ 17+ (.475 x 9) = 63.275 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 64 possessions for us and 63 for them. There were 127 combined possessions in this game. We’ve averaged 129.5 possession games this year.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by dividing the points scored by the number of possessions. We scored 79 points in 64 possessions (1.234 after .863 against Lehigh). They scored 66 points in 63 possessions (1.048). We have, of course, led 2 of 2 games in offensive efficiency since the winning team always leads in that stat. For the year we are averaging 1.046 points per possession to 0.876 for the opposition.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game 10-21, 19-14, 22-19, 28-12. For the season we have an average of 11.0-15.0, 19.5-8.5, 17-19.5, 20.5-13.5. We’ve won 2 of 4 quarters with 4 even. We’ve scored 15 or more in 1 quarters and held the opposition under that 2 times.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog, and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game Michael Gbinije scored 23 points with 6 assists for 29 “hockey” points and thus was our ODOG., Michael Gbinije has been the O-Dog 2 times.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted. Malachi Richardson scored a trey 1 minute 31 seconds into the 1st half. DaJuan Coleman scored a lay-up 18 seconds into the second half. The longest we’d had to wait this year (1m 31 seconds) was the first half against St. Bonaventure. The average time we’ve had to wait is 50 seconds. Malachi Richardson has sat us down 2 times and DaJuan Coleman and Michael Gbinije 1 times. We’ve been sat down by two treys and 2 lay-ups.
Another fun fact is the “Taco Bell MVP”: the guy who gets us to 70 points, (it used to be 75), so people can get free, (or is it discounted?) tacos at Taco Bell. Michael Gbinije hit a free throw with 3:02 left to get us tacos.
FOULS
My theory about fouls is that the team that attempts the most two point shots and scores the most in the paint will tend to get fouled the most. If the numbers are as predicted or close, there’s nothing to be read into them but if there’s a big disparity, it makes you wonder about how the game was called.
In this game, we attempted 28 two point shots to 34, scored 28 points in the paint to 26 and got fouled 24 times to 15, attempting 32 foul shots to 9. The ratio of two point attempts to times fouled was 1.2 for us and 2.2 for them. The ratio of points in the paint to times fouled was 1.2 for us to 1.7 for them. The ratio of free throw attempts to fouls called on the other team was 1.3 for us and 0.6 for them. (So , numerically, the calls seemed to favor us. )
We are averaging 1.1 two point shots per foul, 0.9 points in the paint per foul and attempted 1.1 foul shots per foul. They are averaging 2.2 two point shots per foul, 1.7points in the paint per foul and attempted 1.0 foul shots per foul. We’ve been fouled more often compared to our two point shots in 2 games and more often compared to our points in the paint in 2 games. We’ve gotten more fouls shots per foul in 1 games.
“MY MAN”
A reporter once asked Casey Stengel how come he won so many games with the Yankees. He said “Because I never play a game without “my man”. The reporter wondered who his man was. Casey
suggested “You could look it up.” The reporter did look it up and found that Yogi Berra had played in every game that season at some positon: catcher, left field, pinch-hitting, something. He was the player Stengel had the highest regard for and the most trust in, so he didn’t want to do without him.
Who is Jim Boeheim’s “man” this season? The only way to tell is to see who plays the most minutes each game. In this game, Trevor Cooney led with 39 minutes. Trevor Cooney has led in minutes twice.