SWC75
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I’ll continue doing a statistical analysis of games this year with some of the off-beat numbers I like to look at. I’ll post them after each game, probably the next day.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things player do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
C. J. Fair………………. 20NP in 38 minutes season: 89NP in 255 minutes per 40: 14.0
Jerami Grant……….. 17NP in 30 minutes season: 82NP in 166 minutes per 40: 19.8
Tyler Ennis………….. 16NP in 40 minutes season: 92NP in 222 minutes per 40: 16.6
Trevor Cooney…… 11NP in 33 minutes season: 87NP in 208 minutes per 40: 16.7
Rakeem Christmas 9NP in 31 minutes season: 47NP in 153 minutes per 40: 12.3
Baye Moussa Keita -2NP in 9 minutes season: 25NP in 103 minutes per 40: 9.7
DaJuan Coleman…. -1NP in 10 minutes season: 45NP in 101 minutes per 40: 17.8
Michael Gbinije …. 1NP in 12 minutes season: 28NP in 109 minutes per 40: 10.3
Tyler Roberson……. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 8NP in 36 minutes per 40: 8.9
Ron Patterson…….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 4NP in 22 minutes per 40: 7.3
B. J. Johnson……….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: -1NP in 25 minutes per 40: -1.6
Comment: DaJuan Coleman has been dethrone as our “Net Points” per 40 champion due to his own lack of production in Maui and the excellent play of others, especially Jerami Grant. CJ Fair’s numbers are still low due to some bad shooting games that were the result of his not getting much help and trying to do too many things by himself. It’s hard for a guard to accumulate as many net points as a forward or center because they don’t do as much rebounding and they shoot from farther out but Tyler Ennis’ 16.6 and Trevor Cooney’s 16.7 are excellent averages.
Tyler Ennis has led in net points 3 times, no mean feat for a guard and his “T and T” partner Trevor Cooney is second with two games leading in net points, (once a tie between them), tied with CJ Fair. DaJuan Coleman has led the team in net points once in games this year.
Possession:
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 9 offensive and 12 defensive rebounds. They had 12 offensive and 21 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 9 of 30 times, (30.0%). When they missed, they got the ball 12 of 24 times (50.0%). This was the first rebounding battle we’ve lost all year. We’ve averaged getting 41.9% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 31.7% of theirs. We won the first five rebounding battles but have lost the last two.
Of our 7 turnovers, 2 were their steals and 5 were our own miscues. Of their 20 turnovers, 11 were Syracuse steals and 9 were their fault. Syracuse has had fewer turnovers in all games, (68-122) and are also ahead in unforced errors, (35-48). That’s very impressive for a team with a young backcourt.
If you add our 21 rebounds to their 20 turnovers, we had 41 “manufactured possessions”. They had 33 + 7 = 40, so we were +1. We’ve won that battle every time this season, with an average margin of +13.3, (but only +1 in each of the last two games). It’s the main reason we are 7-0. But what happens when we lose this battle?
Shooting:
It’s still what the game is all about. We were 26 for 47, (.553), inside the arc, 4 for 12, (.333), outside it and 10 for 11 (.909) from the line. They were 17/28, (.607), 9/19 (.474) and 6 for 12, (.500). Both Baylor and California’s, (.667) shooting percentage inside the arc were phenomenal. I don’t remember when our interior defense has been that bad. In fact we’ve lost this stat, (the one that most correlates to winning) four games in a row. In those games we are 85/179 inside the arc, (.475) and the opposition is 66/121 (.545). We all know about Coleman but Christmas and Keita’s almost fanatical interior defense was the biggest factor on our post season run last year: where is it now? On the season, Syracuse is shooting .487/.352/.712, the opposition .514.377/.690. Here are our two point percentages for every year of this decade: 2009-10: .571-.462 (+109), 2010-11: .562-.444 (+118), 2011-12: .519-.425 (+94), 2012-13: .485-.425 (+60). So far this year, (5 games but four games against opponents we should dominate inside): .487-.513 = -26. In the last four games it’s .475-.545 = -70 Our free throw shooting was amazingly good vs. California (23/24) and Baylor (10/11) but it was also amazingly bad vs. Colgate (12/28), so it’s hard to tell whether this is a strength or not.
We had 74 points, 36 in the paint, 12 from the arc and 10 from the line so we scored 16 points from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 67-22-27-6 =12 points in the Twilight Zone. 28 points form the Twilight Zone is by far the most in any game this year, (there were 20 in the Fordham game and the average has been 14). Overall, we had 28 POP: Points Outside the Paint to 39 for them. So far this year Syracuse is averaging 25 POP, 9 from the TZ, the opposition 31/5.
17 of our 30 baskets were assisted (.567) and 15 of their 26 (.577). For the year we are assisting on 48.7% of our baskets to 65.2% for the opposition, who have had more assists and a higher percentage in every game but one- the opener vs. Cornell..
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 59 FGA -9 OREBs + 7 TOs + (.475 x 11) = 62.225 possessions. They were 47 – 12 + 20 + (.475 x 12) = 60.7 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 61 possessions in which we scored 74 points, (1.194) and 61 possessions in which they scored 67 points, (1.098). For the year we are 1.178 vs. 0.982. We’ve been more efficient than our opposition in every game so far, which is also why we are 7-0.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game: 25-17, 13-13, 16-12, 20-25. The average for the season is: 17-14, 21-17, 20-16, 20-17, (it takes a while for both teams to get warmed up, apparently). We’ve won 18 quarters, lost 8 and tied 2. We’ve scored at least 15 in 24 of 28 quarters and held the opposition under that 12 times.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog. I decided to use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game, CJ Fair had 24 points and 1 assists to lead the team in this game. So far C.J. Fair’s done it 4 times, Trevor Cooney and Tyler Ennis twice and Jerami Grant has done it once .
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted that those later in the game, (although sometimes we don’t score until later in the game). CJ Fair sat us down in both halves with a jumper 36 seconds into the first half and a lay-up 41 seconds into the second half. CJ Fair has now sat us down 5 times, Trevor Cooney has now sat us down 4 times, Tyler Ennis 3 times and Coleman twice.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things player do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
C. J. Fair………………. 20NP in 38 minutes season: 89NP in 255 minutes per 40: 14.0
Jerami Grant……….. 17NP in 30 minutes season: 82NP in 166 minutes per 40: 19.8
Tyler Ennis………….. 16NP in 40 minutes season: 92NP in 222 minutes per 40: 16.6
Trevor Cooney…… 11NP in 33 minutes season: 87NP in 208 minutes per 40: 16.7
Rakeem Christmas 9NP in 31 minutes season: 47NP in 153 minutes per 40: 12.3
Baye Moussa Keita -2NP in 9 minutes season: 25NP in 103 minutes per 40: 9.7
DaJuan Coleman…. -1NP in 10 minutes season: 45NP in 101 minutes per 40: 17.8
Michael Gbinije …. 1NP in 12 minutes season: 28NP in 109 minutes per 40: 10.3
Tyler Roberson……. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 8NP in 36 minutes per 40: 8.9
Ron Patterson…….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 4NP in 22 minutes per 40: 7.3
B. J. Johnson……….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: -1NP in 25 minutes per 40: -1.6
Comment: DaJuan Coleman has been dethrone as our “Net Points” per 40 champion due to his own lack of production in Maui and the excellent play of others, especially Jerami Grant. CJ Fair’s numbers are still low due to some bad shooting games that were the result of his not getting much help and trying to do too many things by himself. It’s hard for a guard to accumulate as many net points as a forward or center because they don’t do as much rebounding and they shoot from farther out but Tyler Ennis’ 16.6 and Trevor Cooney’s 16.7 are excellent averages.
Tyler Ennis has led in net points 3 times, no mean feat for a guard and his “T and T” partner Trevor Cooney is second with two games leading in net points, (once a tie between them), tied with CJ Fair. DaJuan Coleman has led the team in net points once in games this year.
Possession:
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 9 offensive and 12 defensive rebounds. They had 12 offensive and 21 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 9 of 30 times, (30.0%). When they missed, they got the ball 12 of 24 times (50.0%). This was the first rebounding battle we’ve lost all year. We’ve averaged getting 41.9% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 31.7% of theirs. We won the first five rebounding battles but have lost the last two.
Of our 7 turnovers, 2 were their steals and 5 were our own miscues. Of their 20 turnovers, 11 were Syracuse steals and 9 were their fault. Syracuse has had fewer turnovers in all games, (68-122) and are also ahead in unforced errors, (35-48). That’s very impressive for a team with a young backcourt.
If you add our 21 rebounds to their 20 turnovers, we had 41 “manufactured possessions”. They had 33 + 7 = 40, so we were +1. We’ve won that battle every time this season, with an average margin of +13.3, (but only +1 in each of the last two games). It’s the main reason we are 7-0. But what happens when we lose this battle?
Shooting:
It’s still what the game is all about. We were 26 for 47, (.553), inside the arc, 4 for 12, (.333), outside it and 10 for 11 (.909) from the line. They were 17/28, (.607), 9/19 (.474) and 6 for 12, (.500). Both Baylor and California’s, (.667) shooting percentage inside the arc were phenomenal. I don’t remember when our interior defense has been that bad. In fact we’ve lost this stat, (the one that most correlates to winning) four games in a row. In those games we are 85/179 inside the arc, (.475) and the opposition is 66/121 (.545). We all know about Coleman but Christmas and Keita’s almost fanatical interior defense was the biggest factor on our post season run last year: where is it now? On the season, Syracuse is shooting .487/.352/.712, the opposition .514.377/.690. Here are our two point percentages for every year of this decade: 2009-10: .571-.462 (+109), 2010-11: .562-.444 (+118), 2011-12: .519-.425 (+94), 2012-13: .485-.425 (+60). So far this year, (5 games but four games against opponents we should dominate inside): .487-.513 = -26. In the last four games it’s .475-.545 = -70 Our free throw shooting was amazingly good vs. California (23/24) and Baylor (10/11) but it was also amazingly bad vs. Colgate (12/28), so it’s hard to tell whether this is a strength or not.
We had 74 points, 36 in the paint, 12 from the arc and 10 from the line so we scored 16 points from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 67-22-27-6 =12 points in the Twilight Zone. 28 points form the Twilight Zone is by far the most in any game this year, (there were 20 in the Fordham game and the average has been 14). Overall, we had 28 POP: Points Outside the Paint to 39 for them. So far this year Syracuse is averaging 25 POP, 9 from the TZ, the opposition 31/5.
17 of our 30 baskets were assisted (.567) and 15 of their 26 (.577). For the year we are assisting on 48.7% of our baskets to 65.2% for the opposition, who have had more assists and a higher percentage in every game but one- the opener vs. Cornell..
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 59 FGA -9 OREBs + 7 TOs + (.475 x 11) = 62.225 possessions. They were 47 – 12 + 20 + (.475 x 12) = 60.7 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 61 possessions in which we scored 74 points, (1.194) and 61 possessions in which they scored 67 points, (1.098). For the year we are 1.178 vs. 0.982. We’ve been more efficient than our opposition in every game so far, which is also why we are 7-0.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game: 25-17, 13-13, 16-12, 20-25. The average for the season is: 17-14, 21-17, 20-16, 20-17, (it takes a while for both teams to get warmed up, apparently). We’ve won 18 quarters, lost 8 and tied 2. We’ve scored at least 15 in 24 of 28 quarters and held the opposition under that 12 times.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog. I decided to use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game, CJ Fair had 24 points and 1 assists to lead the team in this game. So far C.J. Fair’s done it 4 times, Trevor Cooney and Tyler Ennis twice and Jerami Grant has done it once .
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted that those later in the game, (although sometimes we don’t score until later in the game). CJ Fair sat us down in both halves with a jumper 36 seconds into the first half and a lay-up 41 seconds into the second half. CJ Fair has now sat us down 5 times, Trevor Cooney has now sat us down 4 times, Tyler Ennis 3 times and Coleman twice.