SWC75
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I’ll continue doing a statistical analysis of games this year with some of the off-beat numbers I like to look at. I’ll post them after each game, probably the next day.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things player do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Tyler Ennis………….. 31NP in 37 minutes season: 76NP in 182 minutes per 40: 16.7
Jerami Grant……….. 20NP in 28 minutes season: 65NP in 136 minutes per 40: 19.1
Trevor Cooney…… 19NP in 34 minutes season: 76NP in 175 minutes per 40: 17.4
C. J. Fair………………. 10NP in 40 minutes season: 69NP in 217 minutes per 40: 12.7
Baye Moussa Keita 4NP in 19 minutes season: 27NP in 94 minutes per 40: 11.5
DaJuan Coleman…. 1NP in 12 minutes season: 46NP in 91 minutes per 40: 20.2
Rakeem Christmas -1NP in 18 minutes season: 38NP in 122 minutes per 40: 12.5
Michael Gbinije …. -2NP in 12 minutes season: 27NP in 97 minutes per 40: 11.1
Tyler Roberson……. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 8NP in 36 minutes per 40: 8.9
Ron Patterson…….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 4NP in 22 minutes per 40: 7.3
B. J. Johnson……….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: -1NP in 25 minutes per 40: -1.6
Comment: The early season numbers are like a bank of elevators- going up and down. Ennis, Grant and Cooney had great games and their averages all shot up. I don’t keep game records but 50 net points form the backcourt has to be one of the best combined games I can recall. Coleman continues to elad in average but we all know the problem there is something that doesn’t show up in the box score: he’s letting too many points be scored on the other end for JB’s taste.
Tyler Ennis has led in net points 3 times, no mean feat for a guard and his “T and T” partner Trevor Cooney is second with two games leading in net points, (once a tie between them). DaJuan Coleman and. CJ Fair, have each led the team in net points once in games this year.
Possession:
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 8 offensive and 18 defensive rebounds. They had 8 offensive and 20 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 8 of 28 times, (28.5%). When they missed, they got the ball 10 of 28 times (35.7%). This was the first rebounding battle we’ve lost all year. We’ve averaged getting 43.4% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 29.2% of theirs
Of our 8 turnovers, 6 were their steals and 2 were our own miscues. Of their 13 turnovers, 7 were Syracuse steals and 6 were their fault. Syracuse has had fewer turnovers in all games, (61-102) and are now ahead in unforced errors, (30-39). That’s very impressive for a team with a young backcourt.
If you add our 26 rebounds to their 13 turnovers, we had 39 “manufactured possessions”. They had 30 + 8 = 38, so we were +1. We’ve won that battle every time this season, with an average margin of +15.3, (but that was by far the closest- the next closest was +9). It’s the main reason we are 6-0. But what happens when we lose this battle?
Shooting:
It’s still what the game is all about. We were 24 for 44, (.545), inside the arc, 7 for 14, (.500), outside it and 23 for 24 (.958) from the line. They were 22/33, (.667), 6/21 (.286) and 19 for 25, (.760). California’s shooting percentage inside the arc was phenomenal. I don’t remember when our interior defense has been that bad. In fact we’ve lost this stat, (the one that most correlates to winning) three games in a row. In those games we are 59/132 inside the arc, (.445) and the opposition is 49/93 (.527). We all know about Coleman but Christmas and Keita’s almost fanatical interior defense was the biggest factor on our post season run last year: where is it now? On the season, Syracuse is shooting .475/.354/.699, the opposition .497/.364/.713. Here are our two point percentages for every year of this decade: 2009-10: .571-.462 (+109), 2010-11: .562-.444 (+118), 2011-12: .519-.425 (+94), 2012-13: .485-.425 (+60). So far this year, (5 games but four games against opponents we should dominate inside): .475-.497 = -22. Our free throw shooting was amazingly good vs. California (23/24) but it was also amazingly bad vs. Colgate (12/28), so it’s ahrd to tell whether this is a strength or not.
We had 92 points, 42 in the paint, 21 from the arc and 23 from the line so we scored 6 points from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 81-38-18-19 =6 points in the Twilight Zone. Overall, we had 28 POP: Points Outside the Paint to 24 for them. So far this year Syracuse is averaging 24 POP, 7 from the TZ, the opposition 30/4.
14 of our 31 baskets were assists (.452) and 20 of their 28 (.714). For the year we are assisting on 47.1% of our baskets to 66.7% for the opposition, who have had more asssits and a higher percentage in every game but one- the opener vs. Cornell..
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 58 FGA -8 OREBs + 8 TOs + (.475 x 24) = 69.4 possessions. They were 54 – 10 + 13 + (.475 x 13) = 68.875 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 69 possessions in which we scored 92 points, (1.333) and 69 possessions in which they scored 81 points, (1.174). For the year we are 1.175 vs. 0.965. We’ve been more efficient than our opposition in eveyr game so far, which is why we are 6-0.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game: 16-19, 25-22, 21-16, 30-24. The average for the season is: 15-13.5, 22-18, 20-16, 20-16, (it takes a while for both teams to get warmed up, apparently). We’ve won 15 quarters, lost 7 and tied 1. We’ve scored at least 15 in 21 of 24 quarters and held the opposition under that 11 times.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog. I decided to use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game, CJ Fair had 16 points and 1 assists, Tyler Ennis had 28 points and 4 assists for a total of 32 “points” to lead the team in this game. So far C.J. Fair’s done it 3 times, Trevor Cooney and Tyler Ennis twice and Jerami Grant has done it once .
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted that those alter in the game, (although sometimes we don’t score until later in the game. Trevor Cooney sat us down 56 seconds into the first half with a trey. Tyler Ennis did it 51 seconds into the second half with a lay-up. Cooney has now sat us down 4 times, Ennis and Fair 3 times and Coleman twice.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things player do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Tyler Ennis………….. 31NP in 37 minutes season: 76NP in 182 minutes per 40: 16.7
Jerami Grant……….. 20NP in 28 minutes season: 65NP in 136 minutes per 40: 19.1
Trevor Cooney…… 19NP in 34 minutes season: 76NP in 175 minutes per 40: 17.4
C. J. Fair………………. 10NP in 40 minutes season: 69NP in 217 minutes per 40: 12.7
Baye Moussa Keita 4NP in 19 minutes season: 27NP in 94 minutes per 40: 11.5
DaJuan Coleman…. 1NP in 12 minutes season: 46NP in 91 minutes per 40: 20.2
Rakeem Christmas -1NP in 18 minutes season: 38NP in 122 minutes per 40: 12.5
Michael Gbinije …. -2NP in 12 minutes season: 27NP in 97 minutes per 40: 11.1
Tyler Roberson……. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 8NP in 36 minutes per 40: 8.9
Ron Patterson…….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 4NP in 22 minutes per 40: 7.3
B. J. Johnson……….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: -1NP in 25 minutes per 40: -1.6
Comment: The early season numbers are like a bank of elevators- going up and down. Ennis, Grant and Cooney had great games and their averages all shot up. I don’t keep game records but 50 net points form the backcourt has to be one of the best combined games I can recall. Coleman continues to elad in average but we all know the problem there is something that doesn’t show up in the box score: he’s letting too many points be scored on the other end for JB’s taste.
Tyler Ennis has led in net points 3 times, no mean feat for a guard and his “T and T” partner Trevor Cooney is second with two games leading in net points, (once a tie between them). DaJuan Coleman and. CJ Fair, have each led the team in net points once in games this year.
Possession:
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 8 offensive and 18 defensive rebounds. They had 8 offensive and 20 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 8 of 28 times, (28.5%). When they missed, they got the ball 10 of 28 times (35.7%). This was the first rebounding battle we’ve lost all year. We’ve averaged getting 43.4% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 29.2% of theirs
Of our 8 turnovers, 6 were their steals and 2 were our own miscues. Of their 13 turnovers, 7 were Syracuse steals and 6 were their fault. Syracuse has had fewer turnovers in all games, (61-102) and are now ahead in unforced errors, (30-39). That’s very impressive for a team with a young backcourt.
If you add our 26 rebounds to their 13 turnovers, we had 39 “manufactured possessions”. They had 30 + 8 = 38, so we were +1. We’ve won that battle every time this season, with an average margin of +15.3, (but that was by far the closest- the next closest was +9). It’s the main reason we are 6-0. But what happens when we lose this battle?
Shooting:
It’s still what the game is all about. We were 24 for 44, (.545), inside the arc, 7 for 14, (.500), outside it and 23 for 24 (.958) from the line. They were 22/33, (.667), 6/21 (.286) and 19 for 25, (.760). California’s shooting percentage inside the arc was phenomenal. I don’t remember when our interior defense has been that bad. In fact we’ve lost this stat, (the one that most correlates to winning) three games in a row. In those games we are 59/132 inside the arc, (.445) and the opposition is 49/93 (.527). We all know about Coleman but Christmas and Keita’s almost fanatical interior defense was the biggest factor on our post season run last year: where is it now? On the season, Syracuse is shooting .475/.354/.699, the opposition .497/.364/.713. Here are our two point percentages for every year of this decade: 2009-10: .571-.462 (+109), 2010-11: .562-.444 (+118), 2011-12: .519-.425 (+94), 2012-13: .485-.425 (+60). So far this year, (5 games but four games against opponents we should dominate inside): .475-.497 = -22. Our free throw shooting was amazingly good vs. California (23/24) but it was also amazingly bad vs. Colgate (12/28), so it’s ahrd to tell whether this is a strength or not.
We had 92 points, 42 in the paint, 21 from the arc and 23 from the line so we scored 6 points from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 81-38-18-19 =6 points in the Twilight Zone. Overall, we had 28 POP: Points Outside the Paint to 24 for them. So far this year Syracuse is averaging 24 POP, 7 from the TZ, the opposition 30/4.
14 of our 31 baskets were assists (.452) and 20 of their 28 (.714). For the year we are assisting on 47.1% of our baskets to 66.7% for the opposition, who have had more asssits and a higher percentage in every game but one- the opener vs. Cornell..
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 58 FGA -8 OREBs + 8 TOs + (.475 x 24) = 69.4 possessions. They were 54 – 10 + 13 + (.475 x 13) = 68.875 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 69 possessions in which we scored 92 points, (1.333) and 69 possessions in which they scored 81 points, (1.174). For the year we are 1.175 vs. 0.965. We’ve been more efficient than our opposition in eveyr game so far, which is why we are 6-0.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game: 16-19, 25-22, 21-16, 30-24. The average for the season is: 15-13.5, 22-18, 20-16, 20-16, (it takes a while for both teams to get warmed up, apparently). We’ve won 15 quarters, lost 7 and tied 1. We’ve scored at least 15 in 21 of 24 quarters and held the opposition under that 11 times.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog. I decided to use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game, CJ Fair had 16 points and 1 assists, Tyler Ennis had 28 points and 4 assists for a total of 32 “points” to lead the team in this game. So far C.J. Fair’s done it 3 times, Trevor Cooney and Tyler Ennis twice and Jerami Grant has done it once .
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted that those alter in the game, (although sometimes we don’t score until later in the game. Trevor Cooney sat us down 56 seconds into the first half with a trey. Tyler Ennis did it 51 seconds into the second half with a lay-up. Cooney has now sat us down 4 times, Ennis and Fair 3 times and Coleman twice.
