SWC75
Bored Historian
- Joined
- Aug 26, 2011
- Messages
- 33,968
- Like
- 65,509
I’ll continue doing a statistical analysis of games this year with some of the off-beat numbers I like to look at. I’ll post them after each game, probably the next day.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things players do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Rakeem Christmas 23NP in 22 minutes season: 205NP in 325 minutes per 40: 25.2
Trevor Cooney…… 17NP in 29 minutes season: 107NP in 388 minutes per 40: 11.0
Ron Patterson…….. 14NP in 22 minutes season: 16NP in 105 minutes per 40: 6.1
Michael Gbinije….. 14NP in 29 minutes season: 73NP in 278 minutes per 40: 10.5
B. J. Johnson……….. 13NP in 16 minutes season: 61NP in 181 minutes per 40: 13.5
Tyler Roberson……. 8NP in 20 minutes season: 70NP in 177 minutes per 40: 15.8
Chris McCullough.. 6NP in 26 minutes season: 140NP in 353 minutes per 40: 15.9
Chinoso Obokoh….. 4NP in 7 minutes season: 19NP in 38 minutes per 40: 20.0
Kaleb Joseph……….. 0NP in 26 minutes season: 73NP in 367 minutes per 40: 8.0
DNP-CD- none
INJURED
DaJuan Coleman…. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 0NP in 0 minutes per 40: 0.0
SUSPENDED
None
Comment: It was against lesser opposition but it was good to see 5 guys with 10+NP. The team continued to play well, despite the low level of opposition. We might have a much-needed run of victories coming up. Ron Patterson increased his season net points from 2 to 16 and his per 40 average from 1/0 to 6/1 in this one game. Chinoso Obokoh has played 38 minutes this season, about the equivalent of a full game. He has a double-double with 10 points and 10 rebounds. He has yet to miss a shot from the field or the line. He has 3 steals, 2 blocks and 2 assists. The only negatives are 1 turnover, (which in 38 minutes are a positive), and 8 fouls, (normal for a freshman center). The only thing [phony about his net point average is that it’s late in games against lesser opposition. Still, there’s nothing in the numbers to suggest he can’t make a decent back-up center. Is Chris McCullough playing center any worse?
Rakeem Christmas and Chris McCullough have led in Net Points 4 times, Mike Gbinije, BJ Johnson and Tyler Roberson once each.
POSSESSION
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 12 offensive and 28 defensive rebounds. They had 9 offensive and 25 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball only 12 of 37 times, (32.4%). When they missed, they got the ball 9 of 37 times (24.3%). We’ve won the rebounding battle in every game by this measure 9 times in 11 games. We’ve averaged getting 39% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 30% of theirs.
Of our 6 turnovers, 4 were their steals and 2 were our own miscues. Of their 18 turnovers, 10 were Syracuse steals and 8 were their fault. We have had fewer turnovers in 6 of 11 games with 1 even. Last year we had fewer turnovers in 29 of 34 games with 2 even. We are averaging 13 turnovers, 6 unforced, Our opposition is averaging 15/6. Of course it matters a lot when you have them.
If you add our 40 rebounds to their 18 turnovers, we had 58 “manufactured possessions”. They had 34 + 6= 40, so we were +18. We have won that battle it 8 of 11 times. For the season we’ve averaged 56 to 47 (+9).
SHOOTING
It’s still what the game is all about. It’s what this game was all about, for sure. We were 18 for 40, (.450) inside the arc, 10 for 20, (.500) outside it and 12 for 21 (.571) from the line. They were 16 for 32 (.500), 3/23 (.130) and 2/3 (.667). We’ve led in two point field goal percentage in 8 of 11 games and in free throw percentage in 8 games. We’ve led in three point field goals percentage, believe it or not, in 6 games, (our opposition isn’t exactly filling it up, either). For the season we are .514/.264/.659. Our opposition is .415/.291/.692. It’s amazing that Colgate- Colgate- out-shot us inside the arc and that we couldn’t hit 50% of our two point shots against them. That might account in part for JB’s sour mood after the game.
We had 30 points in the paint, 16 off turnovers, 19 “second chance” points, 6 fast break points and 27 from the bench. Our opposition had 22 points in the paint, 6 off turnovers, 9 “second chance” points, 6 fast break points and 5 from the bench. We’ve led in PIP 7 times, POTO 7 times, SCP 7 times, FBP 5 times with two ties and BP 7 times, with a tie. For the season we are averaging 35-23 PIP, 17-14 POTO, 13-9 SCP, 9-7 FBP and 14-12 BP. The fact that we only out-score Colgate 30-22 in the paint is amazing and that we were even in fast break points with only 6 makes me sad and nostalgic for the old days.
We had 78 points, 30 in the paint, 30 from the arc and 12 from the line so we had 36 ”POP”, (points outside the paint: 78-30-12) and scored 6 points, (36 POP-30 from the arc), from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. It was a weapon we used to very good effect in this game. They had 43/22/9/2= 19 POP and 10 from the Twilight Zone. We’ve only led in POP 4 times but we’ve led in TZ points 8 times in 10 games. For the year we are averaging 22 POP and 9 TZ, our opposition 24/6. The game is so much easier when you don’t have to go to the basket for all your points.
19 of our 28 baskets were assisted (.679) and 10 of their 19 (.526). For the year we are assisting on 62% of our baskets to 64% for the opposition, who have had a higher percentage in 7 of 11 games. Assists tend to come more often from jump shots than lay-ups or dunks so the more assists you get, the more you are settling for jump shots to try to win the game which is often a bad strategy.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 60 FGA - 12 OREBs + 6 TOs + (.475 x 21) = 64.975 possessions. They were 55 -9+ 18+ (.475 x 3) = 65.425 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 64 possessions in which we scored 78 points, (1.219) and 65 possessions in which they scored 43 points, (0.662). We have, of course, led 7 of 11 games in offensive efficiency since the winning team always leads in that stat. For the year we are averaging 1.028 points per possession to 0.859 for the opposition.
We had 129 combined possessions in this game. We’ve averaged 134 this year. We averaged 122 last year, so the pace appears to be better than it was last year.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog, and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game Trevor Cooney had 20 points and 4 assists for 24 “hockey” points and thus was our co-ODOG. Rakeem Christmas has been the O-Dog 4 times, Trevor Cooney 3 times, Michael Gbinije twice, BJ Johnson, Kaleb Joseph and Chris McCullough once each.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game 24-9, 19-4, 18-10, 17-20. For the season, we have an average of 16-11, 18-14, 16-15, 19-17. We’ve won 30 of 44 quarters. We’ve scored 15 or more in 30 quarters and held the opposition under that 24 times.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted. Chris McCullough opened the first half with a lay-up at 19:46 and Trevor Cooney did the same with a trey in the second half at 19:21. The average time we’ve had to wait is 1 minute 24 seconds. The longest we’ve waited this season is 2 minutes and 52 seconds in the first half vs. Loyola, (of course they would have waited for 11:30 in that game). Rakeem Christmas has sat us down 6 times, Kaleb Joseph, 4 times Chris McCullough 3 times, Trevor Cooney and Michael Gbinije twice and Tyler Roberson once.
Another fun fact is the “Taco Bell MVP”: the guy who gets us to 75 points so people can free, (or is it discounted?) tacos at Taco Bell. I’m not sure how much of a favorite he’s doing us with what they allegedly put in those tacos, but Ron Patterson put the tacos in our mouths with a trey with only 44 second left in the game, (after we’d been waiting for 3 minutes and 31 seconds, the longest we had to wait this season. Trevor Cooney, BJ Johnson and Ron Patterson have each got us Tacos once.
FOULS
My theory about fouls is that the team that attempts the most two point shots will tend to get fouled the most. If the numbers are as predicted or close, there’s nothing to be read into them but if there’s a big disparity, it makes you wonder about how the game was called. In this game, we attempted 40 two point shots to 32, scored 30 points in the paint to 22 and got fouled 14 times to 8, attempting 21 foul shots to 3. The ratio of two point attempts to times fouled was 2.9 for us and 2.3 for them. The ratio of points in the paint to times fouled was 2.1 for us to 2.8 for them. The ratio of free throw attempts to fouls called on the other team was 1.5 for us and 0.4 for them. Maybe Colgate had a bit of a complaint as to how many times they got to the line in this game.
Last year we attempted 1368 two point shots to 993 for the opposition and scored 1028 PIP to 753. We committed 546 fouls to 598 and went to the line 720 to 607 times, suggesting that there should be a relationship between two points attempts and points in the point and how many fouls are called on the other team and how many times you got to the line. The ratio of two point attempts to times fouled was 2.3 for us and 1.8 for them. The ratio of points in the paint to times fouled was 1.7 for us to 1.4 for them. The ratio of free throw attempts to fouls called on the other team was 1.2 for us and 1.1 for them.
This year we have taken 473 two point shots and scored 386 points in the paint. We’ve been fouled 190 times and taken 219 free throws. Our opposition has taken 385 two point shots and scored 256 points in the paint. They’ve been fouled 174 times and taken only 186 free throws. The ratio of two point attempts to times fouled has been 2.5 for us and 2.2 for them. The ratio of points in the paint to times fouled has been 2.0 for us to 1.5 for them. The ratio of free throw attempts to fouls called on the other team has been 1.2 for us and 1.1 for them.
“MY MAN”
A reporter once asked Casey Stengel how come he won so many games with the Yankees. He said “Because I never play a game without “my man”. The reporter wondered who his man was. Casey suggested “You could look it up.” The reporter did look it up and found that Yogi Berra had played in every game that season at some positon: catcher, left field, pinch-hitting, something. He was the player Stengel had the highest regard for and the most trust in, so he didn’t want to do without him. Who is Jim Boeheim’s “man” this season? The only way to tell is to see who plays the most minutes each game. In this game, Trevor Cooney and Michael Gbinije both played 29 minutes. Trevor Cooney has been the “Man” 6 times, Chris McCullough and Kaleb Joseph 4 times and Rakeem Christmas and Michael Gbinije once. Cooney has re-taken the team lead in minutes played with 388, 21 more than any other player.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things players do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Rakeem Christmas 23NP in 22 minutes season: 205NP in 325 minutes per 40: 25.2
Trevor Cooney…… 17NP in 29 minutes season: 107NP in 388 minutes per 40: 11.0
Ron Patterson…….. 14NP in 22 minutes season: 16NP in 105 minutes per 40: 6.1
Michael Gbinije….. 14NP in 29 minutes season: 73NP in 278 minutes per 40: 10.5
B. J. Johnson……….. 13NP in 16 minutes season: 61NP in 181 minutes per 40: 13.5
Tyler Roberson……. 8NP in 20 minutes season: 70NP in 177 minutes per 40: 15.8
Chris McCullough.. 6NP in 26 minutes season: 140NP in 353 minutes per 40: 15.9
Chinoso Obokoh….. 4NP in 7 minutes season: 19NP in 38 minutes per 40: 20.0
Kaleb Joseph……….. 0NP in 26 minutes season: 73NP in 367 minutes per 40: 8.0
DNP-CD- none
INJURED
DaJuan Coleman…. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 0NP in 0 minutes per 40: 0.0
SUSPENDED
None
Comment: It was against lesser opposition but it was good to see 5 guys with 10+NP. The team continued to play well, despite the low level of opposition. We might have a much-needed run of victories coming up. Ron Patterson increased his season net points from 2 to 16 and his per 40 average from 1/0 to 6/1 in this one game. Chinoso Obokoh has played 38 minutes this season, about the equivalent of a full game. He has a double-double with 10 points and 10 rebounds. He has yet to miss a shot from the field or the line. He has 3 steals, 2 blocks and 2 assists. The only negatives are 1 turnover, (which in 38 minutes are a positive), and 8 fouls, (normal for a freshman center). The only thing [phony about his net point average is that it’s late in games against lesser opposition. Still, there’s nothing in the numbers to suggest he can’t make a decent back-up center. Is Chris McCullough playing center any worse?
Rakeem Christmas and Chris McCullough have led in Net Points 4 times, Mike Gbinije, BJ Johnson and Tyler Roberson once each.
POSSESSION
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 12 offensive and 28 defensive rebounds. They had 9 offensive and 25 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball only 12 of 37 times, (32.4%). When they missed, they got the ball 9 of 37 times (24.3%). We’ve won the rebounding battle in every game by this measure 9 times in 11 games. We’ve averaged getting 39% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 30% of theirs.
Of our 6 turnovers, 4 were their steals and 2 were our own miscues. Of their 18 turnovers, 10 were Syracuse steals and 8 were their fault. We have had fewer turnovers in 6 of 11 games with 1 even. Last year we had fewer turnovers in 29 of 34 games with 2 even. We are averaging 13 turnovers, 6 unforced, Our opposition is averaging 15/6. Of course it matters a lot when you have them.
If you add our 40 rebounds to their 18 turnovers, we had 58 “manufactured possessions”. They had 34 + 6= 40, so we were +18. We have won that battle it 8 of 11 times. For the season we’ve averaged 56 to 47 (+9).
SHOOTING
It’s still what the game is all about. It’s what this game was all about, for sure. We were 18 for 40, (.450) inside the arc, 10 for 20, (.500) outside it and 12 for 21 (.571) from the line. They were 16 for 32 (.500), 3/23 (.130) and 2/3 (.667). We’ve led in two point field goal percentage in 8 of 11 games and in free throw percentage in 8 games. We’ve led in three point field goals percentage, believe it or not, in 6 games, (our opposition isn’t exactly filling it up, either). For the season we are .514/.264/.659. Our opposition is .415/.291/.692. It’s amazing that Colgate- Colgate- out-shot us inside the arc and that we couldn’t hit 50% of our two point shots against them. That might account in part for JB’s sour mood after the game.
We had 30 points in the paint, 16 off turnovers, 19 “second chance” points, 6 fast break points and 27 from the bench. Our opposition had 22 points in the paint, 6 off turnovers, 9 “second chance” points, 6 fast break points and 5 from the bench. We’ve led in PIP 7 times, POTO 7 times, SCP 7 times, FBP 5 times with two ties and BP 7 times, with a tie. For the season we are averaging 35-23 PIP, 17-14 POTO, 13-9 SCP, 9-7 FBP and 14-12 BP. The fact that we only out-score Colgate 30-22 in the paint is amazing and that we were even in fast break points with only 6 makes me sad and nostalgic for the old days.
We had 78 points, 30 in the paint, 30 from the arc and 12 from the line so we had 36 ”POP”, (points outside the paint: 78-30-12) and scored 6 points, (36 POP-30 from the arc), from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. It was a weapon we used to very good effect in this game. They had 43/22/9/2= 19 POP and 10 from the Twilight Zone. We’ve only led in POP 4 times but we’ve led in TZ points 8 times in 10 games. For the year we are averaging 22 POP and 9 TZ, our opposition 24/6. The game is so much easier when you don’t have to go to the basket for all your points.
19 of our 28 baskets were assisted (.679) and 10 of their 19 (.526). For the year we are assisting on 62% of our baskets to 64% for the opposition, who have had a higher percentage in 7 of 11 games. Assists tend to come more often from jump shots than lay-ups or dunks so the more assists you get, the more you are settling for jump shots to try to win the game which is often a bad strategy.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 60 FGA - 12 OREBs + 6 TOs + (.475 x 21) = 64.975 possessions. They were 55 -9+ 18+ (.475 x 3) = 65.425 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 64 possessions in which we scored 78 points, (1.219) and 65 possessions in which they scored 43 points, (0.662). We have, of course, led 7 of 11 games in offensive efficiency since the winning team always leads in that stat. For the year we are averaging 1.028 points per possession to 0.859 for the opposition.
We had 129 combined possessions in this game. We’ve averaged 134 this year. We averaged 122 last year, so the pace appears to be better than it was last year.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog, and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game Trevor Cooney had 20 points and 4 assists for 24 “hockey” points and thus was our co-ODOG. Rakeem Christmas has been the O-Dog 4 times, Trevor Cooney 3 times, Michael Gbinije twice, BJ Johnson, Kaleb Joseph and Chris McCullough once each.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game 24-9, 19-4, 18-10, 17-20. For the season, we have an average of 16-11, 18-14, 16-15, 19-17. We’ve won 30 of 44 quarters. We’ve scored 15 or more in 30 quarters and held the opposition under that 24 times.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted. Chris McCullough opened the first half with a lay-up at 19:46 and Trevor Cooney did the same with a trey in the second half at 19:21. The average time we’ve had to wait is 1 minute 24 seconds. The longest we’ve waited this season is 2 minutes and 52 seconds in the first half vs. Loyola, (of course they would have waited for 11:30 in that game). Rakeem Christmas has sat us down 6 times, Kaleb Joseph, 4 times Chris McCullough 3 times, Trevor Cooney and Michael Gbinije twice and Tyler Roberson once.
Another fun fact is the “Taco Bell MVP”: the guy who gets us to 75 points so people can free, (or is it discounted?) tacos at Taco Bell. I’m not sure how much of a favorite he’s doing us with what they allegedly put in those tacos, but Ron Patterson put the tacos in our mouths with a trey with only 44 second left in the game, (after we’d been waiting for 3 minutes and 31 seconds, the longest we had to wait this season. Trevor Cooney, BJ Johnson and Ron Patterson have each got us Tacos once.
FOULS
My theory about fouls is that the team that attempts the most two point shots will tend to get fouled the most. If the numbers are as predicted or close, there’s nothing to be read into them but if there’s a big disparity, it makes you wonder about how the game was called. In this game, we attempted 40 two point shots to 32, scored 30 points in the paint to 22 and got fouled 14 times to 8, attempting 21 foul shots to 3. The ratio of two point attempts to times fouled was 2.9 for us and 2.3 for them. The ratio of points in the paint to times fouled was 2.1 for us to 2.8 for them. The ratio of free throw attempts to fouls called on the other team was 1.5 for us and 0.4 for them. Maybe Colgate had a bit of a complaint as to how many times they got to the line in this game.
Last year we attempted 1368 two point shots to 993 for the opposition and scored 1028 PIP to 753. We committed 546 fouls to 598 and went to the line 720 to 607 times, suggesting that there should be a relationship between two points attempts and points in the point and how many fouls are called on the other team and how many times you got to the line. The ratio of two point attempts to times fouled was 2.3 for us and 1.8 for them. The ratio of points in the paint to times fouled was 1.7 for us to 1.4 for them. The ratio of free throw attempts to fouls called on the other team was 1.2 for us and 1.1 for them.
This year we have taken 473 two point shots and scored 386 points in the paint. We’ve been fouled 190 times and taken 219 free throws. Our opposition has taken 385 two point shots and scored 256 points in the paint. They’ve been fouled 174 times and taken only 186 free throws. The ratio of two point attempts to times fouled has been 2.5 for us and 2.2 for them. The ratio of points in the paint to times fouled has been 2.0 for us to 1.5 for them. The ratio of free throw attempts to fouls called on the other team has been 1.2 for us and 1.1 for them.
“MY MAN”
A reporter once asked Casey Stengel how come he won so many games with the Yankees. He said “Because I never play a game without “my man”. The reporter wondered who his man was. Casey suggested “You could look it up.” The reporter did look it up and found that Yogi Berra had played in every game that season at some positon: catcher, left field, pinch-hitting, something. He was the player Stengel had the highest regard for and the most trust in, so he didn’t want to do without him. Who is Jim Boeheim’s “man” this season? The only way to tell is to see who plays the most minutes each game. In this game, Trevor Cooney and Michael Gbinije both played 29 minutes. Trevor Cooney has been the “Man” 6 times, Chris McCullough and Kaleb Joseph 4 times and Rakeem Christmas and Michael Gbinije once. Cooney has re-taken the team lead in minutes played with 388, 21 more than any other player.