SWC75
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I’ll continue doing a statistical analysis of games this year with some of the off-beat numbers I like to look at. I’ll post them after each game, probably the next day.
The first think I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things player do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose. Scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measure by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games, not included):
Trevor Cooney…… 32NP in 28 minutes season: 32NP in 28 minutes per 40: 45.7
Michael Gbinije …. 16NP in 20 minutes season: 16NP in 20 minutes per 40: 32.0
Rakeem Christmas 15NP in 27 minutes season: 15NP in 27 minutes per 40: 22.2
C. J. Fair………………. 10NP in 35 minutes season: 10NP in 35 minutes per 40: 11.4
Tyler Ennis………….. 9NP in 28 minutes season: 9NP in 28 minutes per 40: 12.9
Baye Moussa Keita 7NP in 16 minutes season: 7NP in 16 minutes per 40: 17.5
B. J. Johnson……….. 5NP in 12 minutes season: 5NP in 12 minutes per 40: 16.7
Tyler Roberson……. 4NP in 14 minutes season: 4NP in 14 minutes per 40: 11.4
DaJuan Coleman…. 3NP in 11 minutes season: 3NP in 11 minutes per 40: 10.9
Ron Patterson…….. 1NP in 6 minutes season: 1NP in 6 minutes per 40: 6.7
Jerami Grant……….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 0NP in 0 minutes per 40: 0.0
Comment: obviously the per 40 averages will become more meaningful as the season progresses with more games and tougher opponents. But that was an amazing game by Cooney and very good one by Gbinije, two players who had previously not been impressive. I’m impressed now!
Possession:
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 11 offensive and 27 defensive rebounds. They had 7 offensive and 19 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 11 of 30 times, (36.7%). When they missed, they got the ball 7 of 24 times ((20.5%). Of our 14 turnovers, 4 were their steals and 10 were our own miscues. Of their 17 turnovers, 12 were Syracuse steals and 5 were their fault. If you add our 38 rebounds to their 17 turnovers, we had 55 “manufactured possessions”. They had 26 + 14 = 40, so we were +15.
Shooting:
It’s still what the game is all about. We were 20 for 36, (.556), inside the arc, 10 for 20, (.500), outside it and 12 for 18 (.667) from the Line. They were 12/22, (.545), 10/32 (.313) and 6 for 8, (.750). We had 82 points, 34 in the paint, 30 from the arc and 12 from the line so we scored 6 points from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon in this game. They had 60-22-30-6 = 2 points in the Twilight Zone. Overall, we had 36 POP: Points Outside the Paint to 32 for them. 19 of our 30 baskets were assists (.633) and 13 of their 22 (.591).
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 56 FGA -12 OREBS + 14 + (.475 x 18) = 66.55 possessions. They were 54 – 7 + 17 + (.475 x 8) = 67.8 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 67 possessions in which we scored 82 points, (1.224) and 68 possession in which they scored 60 points, (0.882).
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game: 16-15, 16-22, 30-10, 20-12.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog. I decided to use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game, Trevor Cooney had 27 points and 2 assists, a total of 29 “hockey points”.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted that those alter in the game, (although sometimes we don’t score until later in the game. C. J. Fair sat us down with a lay-up 10 seconds into the first half and DaJuan Coleman did it with a layup 24 seconds into the second half.
The first think I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things player do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose. Scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measure by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games, not included):
Trevor Cooney…… 32NP in 28 minutes season: 32NP in 28 minutes per 40: 45.7
Michael Gbinije …. 16NP in 20 minutes season: 16NP in 20 minutes per 40: 32.0
Rakeem Christmas 15NP in 27 minutes season: 15NP in 27 minutes per 40: 22.2
C. J. Fair………………. 10NP in 35 minutes season: 10NP in 35 minutes per 40: 11.4
Tyler Ennis………….. 9NP in 28 minutes season: 9NP in 28 minutes per 40: 12.9
Baye Moussa Keita 7NP in 16 minutes season: 7NP in 16 minutes per 40: 17.5
B. J. Johnson……….. 5NP in 12 minutes season: 5NP in 12 minutes per 40: 16.7
Tyler Roberson……. 4NP in 14 minutes season: 4NP in 14 minutes per 40: 11.4
DaJuan Coleman…. 3NP in 11 minutes season: 3NP in 11 minutes per 40: 10.9
Ron Patterson…….. 1NP in 6 minutes season: 1NP in 6 minutes per 40: 6.7
Jerami Grant……….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 0NP in 0 minutes per 40: 0.0
Comment: obviously the per 40 averages will become more meaningful as the season progresses with more games and tougher opponents. But that was an amazing game by Cooney and very good one by Gbinije, two players who had previously not been impressive. I’m impressed now!
Possession:
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 11 offensive and 27 defensive rebounds. They had 7 offensive and 19 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 11 of 30 times, (36.7%). When they missed, they got the ball 7 of 24 times ((20.5%). Of our 14 turnovers, 4 were their steals and 10 were our own miscues. Of their 17 turnovers, 12 were Syracuse steals and 5 were their fault. If you add our 38 rebounds to their 17 turnovers, we had 55 “manufactured possessions”. They had 26 + 14 = 40, so we were +15.
Shooting:
It’s still what the game is all about. We were 20 for 36, (.556), inside the arc, 10 for 20, (.500), outside it and 12 for 18 (.667) from the Line. They were 12/22, (.545), 10/32 (.313) and 6 for 8, (.750). We had 82 points, 34 in the paint, 30 from the arc and 12 from the line so we scored 6 points from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon in this game. They had 60-22-30-6 = 2 points in the Twilight Zone. Overall, we had 36 POP: Points Outside the Paint to 32 for them. 19 of our 30 baskets were assists (.633) and 13 of their 22 (.591).
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 56 FGA -12 OREBS + 14 + (.475 x 18) = 66.55 possessions. They were 54 – 7 + 17 + (.475 x 8) = 67.8 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 67 possessions in which we scored 82 points, (1.224) and 68 possession in which they scored 60 points, (0.882).
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game: 16-15, 16-22, 30-10, 20-12.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog. I decided to use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game, Trevor Cooney had 27 points and 2 assists, a total of 29 “hockey points”.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted that those alter in the game, (although sometimes we don’t score until later in the game. C. J. Fair sat us down with a lay-up 10 seconds into the first half and DaJuan Coleman did it with a layup 24 seconds into the second half.
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