SWC75
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I’ll continue doing a statistical analysis of games this year with some of the off-beat numbers I like to look at. I’ll post them after each game, probably the next day.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things player do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Rakeem Christmas 15NP in 22 minutes season: 87NP in 264 minutes per 40: 13.2
Jerami Grant……….. 14NP in 26 minutes season: 145NP in 323 minutes per 40: 18.0
C. J. Fair………………. 13NP in 37 minutes season: 163NP in 463 minutes per 40: 14.1
Trevor Cooney…… 10NP in 27 minutes season: 174NP in 380 minutes per 40: 18.3
Tyler Roberson……. 8NP in 14 minutes season: 19NP in 80 minutes per 40: 9.5
Tyler Ennis………….. 8NP in 32 minutes season: 182NP in 416 minutes per 40: 17.5
Baye Moussa Keita 6NP in 18 minutes season: 52NP in 209 minutes per 40: 10.0
Michael Gbinije …. 6NP in 18 minutes season: 63NP in 198 minutes per 40: 12.7
Ron Patterson…….. 1NP in 3 minutes season: 11NP in 46 minutes per 40: 9.6
B. J. Johnson……….. 2NP in 3 minutes season: 1NP in 47 minutes per 40: 0.9
DaJuan Coleman…. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 61NP in 166 minutes per 40: 14.7
Comment: We played this game primarily with our best line-up: Christmas, Grant, Fair, Cooney and Ennis. Without the bulky Coleman in there, Ennis was able to feed the big men well and both Christmas and Grant had plenty of room to maneuver. They were 12 for 15 from the field and scored 30 points. I think you’ll see more of this line-up even when Coleman is healthy again. Keita continued to be more productive and Gbinije played well, too. Tyler Roberson took advantage of the last non-ACC game until the post season to play well with 6 points and 5 rebounds in 14 minutes. With Coleman out, Christmas will be at center, Grant replaces him and forward and Roberson assumes Grant’s role so he will get some playing time as we go along through the conference schedule.
Tyler Ennis has led in net points 6 times, no mean feat for a guard. CJ Fair has now led 3 times and Trevor Cooney and CJ Fair three times each. Rakeem Christmas and DaJuan Coleman have led the team in net points once each in games this year.
Possession:
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 8 offensive and 31 defensive rebounds. They had 8 offensive and 22 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 8 of 30 times, (26.7%). When they missed, they got the ball 8 of 39 times (20.5%). We’ve averaged getting 39.4% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 30.6% of theirs. We have won the rebounding battle by this measure 9 times in 13 games.
Of our 13 turnovers, 6 were their steals and 7 were our own miscues. Of their 18 turnovers, 10 were Syracuse steals and 8 were their fault. Syracuse has had fewer turnovers in all but one game, (134-216) and are also ahead in unforced errors, (71-85). That’s very impressive for a team with a young backcourt.
If you add our 39 rebounds to their 18 turnovers, we had 57 “manufactured possessions”. They had 30 + 13 = 43, so we were +14. We’ve won that battle every time this season, except the St. John’s game, with an average margin of +11.5, It’s the main reason we are 13-0.
Shooting:
It’s still what the game is all about. We were 23 for 37, (.622) inside the arc, 3 for 14, (.214), outside it and 15 for 25 (.600) from the line. They were 10/26, (.385), 7/28 (.250) and 7/11(.636). On the season, Syracuse is shooting .515/.366/.687, the opposition .483/.332/.698. Here are our two point percentages for every year of this decade: 2009-10: .571-.462 (+109), 2010-11: .562-.444 (+118), 2011-12: .519-.425 (+94), 2012-13: .485-.425 (+60). So far this year: .515-.483 = +32.
We had 70 points, 40 in the paint, 9 from the arc and 15 from the line so we scored 6 points from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 48-18-21-7 =2 points in the Twilight Zone. Overall, we had 15 POP: Points Outside the Paint to 23 for them. So far this year Syracuse is averaging 24 POP, 7 from the TZ, the opposition 27/5.
20 of our 26 baskets were assisted (.769) and 14 of their 17 (.824). For the year we are assisting on 53.5% of our baskets to 63.3% for the opposition, who have had more assists or a higher percentage in 10 of 13 games, all of which we’ve won. Our large number of assists in this game would usually mean that we made a lot of jump shots but here it didn’t: this was our best passing game, one in which we repeatedly fed the low post for baskets.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 51 FGA -8 OREBs + 13 TOs + (.475 x 25) = 67.875 possessions. They were 54 – 8 + 18 + (.475 x 11) = 69.225 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 68 possessions in which we scored 70 points, (1.029) and 69 possessions in which they scored 48 points, (0.696). For the year we are 1.174 vs. 0.942. We’ve been more efficient than our opposition in every game so far, which is also why we are 13-0. This was the least efficient game of the 13 for both us and our opposition, which made it hard to watch.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game: 22-10, 14-17, 19-12, 15-9. The average for the season is: 17-14, 21-17, 19-15, 19-16. We’ve won 36 quarters, lost 14 and tied 2. We’ve scored at least 15 in 42 of 52 quarters and held the opposition under that 25 times.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog. and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game, Jerami Grant had 15 points and 2 assists and CJ Fair had 13 points and 4 assists for 17 “hockey points” each to lead the team. So far Fair has done it 6 times, Ennis 5 times, Trevor Cooney 3 times and Jerami Grant has done it twice, including ties.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted that those later in the game, (although sometimes we don’t score until later in the gameRakeem Christmas sat us down both times, with a jumper 33 seconds into the first half and a lay-up 2:29 into the second half. CJ has now sat us down 8 times, DaJuan Coleman and Tyler Ennis 5 times Trevor Cooney, and Rakeem Christmas four times each. So far the longest stretch as been 4:51 in the second half, St. Francis.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things player do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Rakeem Christmas 15NP in 22 minutes season: 87NP in 264 minutes per 40: 13.2
Jerami Grant……….. 14NP in 26 minutes season: 145NP in 323 minutes per 40: 18.0
C. J. Fair………………. 13NP in 37 minutes season: 163NP in 463 minutes per 40: 14.1
Trevor Cooney…… 10NP in 27 minutes season: 174NP in 380 minutes per 40: 18.3
Tyler Roberson……. 8NP in 14 minutes season: 19NP in 80 minutes per 40: 9.5
Tyler Ennis………….. 8NP in 32 minutes season: 182NP in 416 minutes per 40: 17.5
Baye Moussa Keita 6NP in 18 minutes season: 52NP in 209 minutes per 40: 10.0
Michael Gbinije …. 6NP in 18 minutes season: 63NP in 198 minutes per 40: 12.7
Ron Patterson…….. 1NP in 3 minutes season: 11NP in 46 minutes per 40: 9.6
B. J. Johnson……….. 2NP in 3 minutes season: 1NP in 47 minutes per 40: 0.9
DaJuan Coleman…. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 61NP in 166 minutes per 40: 14.7
Comment: We played this game primarily with our best line-up: Christmas, Grant, Fair, Cooney and Ennis. Without the bulky Coleman in there, Ennis was able to feed the big men well and both Christmas and Grant had plenty of room to maneuver. They were 12 for 15 from the field and scored 30 points. I think you’ll see more of this line-up even when Coleman is healthy again. Keita continued to be more productive and Gbinije played well, too. Tyler Roberson took advantage of the last non-ACC game until the post season to play well with 6 points and 5 rebounds in 14 minutes. With Coleman out, Christmas will be at center, Grant replaces him and forward and Roberson assumes Grant’s role so he will get some playing time as we go along through the conference schedule.
Tyler Ennis has led in net points 6 times, no mean feat for a guard. CJ Fair has now led 3 times and Trevor Cooney and CJ Fair three times each. Rakeem Christmas and DaJuan Coleman have led the team in net points once each in games this year.
Possession:
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 8 offensive and 31 defensive rebounds. They had 8 offensive and 22 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 8 of 30 times, (26.7%). When they missed, they got the ball 8 of 39 times (20.5%). We’ve averaged getting 39.4% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 30.6% of theirs. We have won the rebounding battle by this measure 9 times in 13 games.
Of our 13 turnovers, 6 were their steals and 7 were our own miscues. Of their 18 turnovers, 10 were Syracuse steals and 8 were their fault. Syracuse has had fewer turnovers in all but one game, (134-216) and are also ahead in unforced errors, (71-85). That’s very impressive for a team with a young backcourt.
If you add our 39 rebounds to their 18 turnovers, we had 57 “manufactured possessions”. They had 30 + 13 = 43, so we were +14. We’ve won that battle every time this season, except the St. John’s game, with an average margin of +11.5, It’s the main reason we are 13-0.
Shooting:
It’s still what the game is all about. We were 23 for 37, (.622) inside the arc, 3 for 14, (.214), outside it and 15 for 25 (.600) from the line. They were 10/26, (.385), 7/28 (.250) and 7/11(.636). On the season, Syracuse is shooting .515/.366/.687, the opposition .483/.332/.698. Here are our two point percentages for every year of this decade: 2009-10: .571-.462 (+109), 2010-11: .562-.444 (+118), 2011-12: .519-.425 (+94), 2012-13: .485-.425 (+60). So far this year: .515-.483 = +32.
We had 70 points, 40 in the paint, 9 from the arc and 15 from the line so we scored 6 points from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 48-18-21-7 =2 points in the Twilight Zone. Overall, we had 15 POP: Points Outside the Paint to 23 for them. So far this year Syracuse is averaging 24 POP, 7 from the TZ, the opposition 27/5.
20 of our 26 baskets were assisted (.769) and 14 of their 17 (.824). For the year we are assisting on 53.5% of our baskets to 63.3% for the opposition, who have had more assists or a higher percentage in 10 of 13 games, all of which we’ve won. Our large number of assists in this game would usually mean that we made a lot of jump shots but here it didn’t: this was our best passing game, one in which we repeatedly fed the low post for baskets.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 51 FGA -8 OREBs + 13 TOs + (.475 x 25) = 67.875 possessions. They were 54 – 8 + 18 + (.475 x 11) = 69.225 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 68 possessions in which we scored 70 points, (1.029) and 69 possessions in which they scored 48 points, (0.696). For the year we are 1.174 vs. 0.942. We’ve been more efficient than our opposition in every game so far, which is also why we are 13-0. This was the least efficient game of the 13 for both us and our opposition, which made it hard to watch.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game: 22-10, 14-17, 19-12, 15-9. The average for the season is: 17-14, 21-17, 19-15, 19-16. We’ve won 36 quarters, lost 14 and tied 2. We’ve scored at least 15 in 42 of 52 quarters and held the opposition under that 25 times.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog. and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game, Jerami Grant had 15 points and 2 assists and CJ Fair had 13 points and 4 assists for 17 “hockey points” each to lead the team. So far Fair has done it 6 times, Ennis 5 times, Trevor Cooney 3 times and Jerami Grant has done it twice, including ties.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted that those later in the game, (although sometimes we don’t score until later in the gameRakeem Christmas sat us down both times, with a jumper 33 seconds into the first half and a lay-up 2:29 into the second half. CJ has now sat us down 8 times, DaJuan Coleman and Tyler Ennis 5 times Trevor Cooney, and Rakeem Christmas four times each. So far the longest stretch as been 4:51 in the second half, St. Francis.
