SWC75
Bored Historian
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I’ll continue doing a statistical analysis of games this year with some of the off-beat numbers I like to look at. I'm summarizing all three games here and have decided to post these once a week rather than after each game, because of the time it takes.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things players do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship players in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Tyler Lydon had 65 net points in 92 minutes, has 105 NP in 186 minutes for the season = 22.6NP/40
Michael Gbinije had 61 net points in 111 minutes, has 107 NP in 212 minutes for the season = 20.2NP/40
Trevor Cooney had 29 net points in 114 minutes, has 60 NP in 230 minutes for the season = 10.4NP/40
Malachi Richardson had 28 net points in 96 minutes, has 50 NP in 193 minutes for the season = 10.4NP/40
DaJuan Coleman had 21 net points in 52 minutes, has 21 NP in 89 minutes for the season = -9.4NP/40
Tyler Roberson had 20 net points in 102 minutes, has 59 NP in 189 minutes for the season = 12.5NP/40
Franklin Howard had 2 net points in 5 minutes, has 5 NP in 27 minutes for the season = 7.4NP/40
Chinoso Obokoh had -2 net points in 2 minutes, has 2 NP in 23 minutes for the season = 5.4NP/40
Kaleb Joseph had -8 net points in 25 minutes, has -2 NP in 51 minutes for the season = -1.6NP/40
DNP-CD
None
INJURED
None
SUSPENDED
None
Comments: Those who felt that Tyler Lydon was the MVP of the Battle For Atlantis were right, at least as far as the stats can tell us: he had more net points in fewer minutes and a higher average per 40: 28.3 to 22.0. He did more things and, from my memory of the games, was at least as clutch. Yet Tyler didn’t even make the all-tournament team. Trevor Cooney was also on it and I guess they didn’t want three players from the same team.
The Stats:
POSSESSION
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 35 offensive and 82 defensive rebounds. They had 43 offensive and 84 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 35 of 103 times, (34.0%, which is good). When they missed, they got the ball 43 of 125 times (34.4%). We’ve won the rebounding battle by this measure 3 times, (2 of the 3 games in Atlantis, where we might have been expected to be overmatched on the boards). For the year we’ve averaged getting 33.5% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 37.1% of theirs.
Effective offensive rebounding: We got 30 second chance points off our 36 offensive rebounds, 0.833 points per rebound. They got 45 for their 43 = 0.946 For the year we’ve averaged 0.743 points per offensive rebound: they’ve averaged 0.946. We’ve also led in this stat 3 times, again 2 of 3 games in Atlantis.
Of our 45 turnovers, 19 were their steals and 26 were our own miscues, (12 of them in the championship game). Of their 35 turnovers, 19 were Syracuse steals and 16 were their fault- ten less unforced turnovers than we had. We’ve had fewer turnovers in 2 games but fewer unforced turnovers in 0 games. It’s an area we need to tighten up as one of the ideas behind the zone is that we will make up for a rebounding deficit with a favorable turnover margin.
If you add our 117 rebounds to their 35 turnovers, we had 152 “manufactured possessions”. They had 111 + 45 = 156. We have won that battle 3 times with 1 even. But for the season we’ve averaged 52.5 MP to 53.0. We are normally well ahead of our early opponents in this stat. And the problem hasn’t been the rebounding as much as it’s been the unforced turnovers: we’ve had 44 of them to 30 for our opposition. I think the lack of a true point guard is hurting us in this area.
SHOOTING
It’s still what the game is all about. It’s what this game was all about, for sure. We were 43 for 93, (.462) inside the arc, 34 for 73, (.466) outside it and 48 for 73, (.658) from the line. They were 59 for 130 (.454), 21/65 (.323) and 32/51 (.627). We’ve led in two point field goal percentage in 4 games, in three point field goals percentage in all 6 games, and in free throw percentage in 3 games. For the season we are .451/.411/.658. Our opposition is .454/.323/.627.
We had 72 points in the paint (PIP), 48 off turnovers (POTO), 30 “second chance” points (SCP), 15 fast break points (FBP) and 47 from the bench (BP). Our opposition had 112 points in the paint, 35 off turnovers, 48 “second chance” points, 27 fast break points and 68 from the bench. We also had 143 of Pat’s “first chance points” (FCP) (total points minus second chance points, fast break points and made free throws) to 106.
We’ve led in PIP 2 times, POTO 3 times, FCP 5 times, SCP 1 times, FBP 3 times, and BP 2 times. For the season we are averaging 22-27 PIP, 15-13.5 POTO, 41-30 FCP, 9-15 SCP, 7-8.5 FBP and 13-19 BP.
We had 236 points, 72 in the paint, 102 from the arc and 48 from the line so we had 116 ”POP”, (points outside the paint: 236-72-48) and scored 14 points, (116 POP-102 from the arc), from what I’ll call the Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 213/112/63/32 = 69 POP with 6 from the Twilight Zone. We’ve led in POP 4 times. We’ve led in TZ points 4 times with one tie. For the year we are averaging 19 POP and 4 TZ, our opposition 11.5/1. The game is so much easier when you don’t have to go to the basket for all your points.
13 of our 20 baskets were assisted (.650) and also 17 of their 21 (.810). For the year we are assisting on 66.1% of our baskets to 68.3% for the opposition, who have had a higher percentage in 1 game. Assists tend to come more often from jump shots than lay-ups or dunks so the more assists you get, the more you are settling for jump shots to try to win the game which is often a bad strategy but, as JB says, is the
way we have to play this year because of our personnel.
You compute possessions by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 166 FGA - 36 OREBs + 45 TOs + (.475 x 73) = 209.675 possessions. They were 195 -43+ 35+ (.475 x 51) = 211.225 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 210 possessions for us and 211 for them. There were 411 combined possessions in these games, 137 per game. We’ve averaged 136 possessions per game this year.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by dividing the points scored by the number of possessions. We scored 236 points in 210 possessions (1.124). They scored 213 points in 211 possessions (1.009). We have, of course, led 6 games in offensive efficiency since the winning team always leads in that stat. For the year we are averaging 1.074 points per possession to 0.932 for the opposition.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for these games: 59-47, 58-49, 57-54, 62-63. For the season we have an average of 16-15, 18-13, 18.5-19, 20-17. We’ve won 13 of 24 quarters with 1 even. We’ve scored 15 or more in 18 quarters and held the opposition under that 10 times.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog, and use the hockey concept of points + assists. Michael Gbinije was our ODOG in every game with a total of 63 points and 15 assists for 78 “hockey points. Trevor Cooney was closest with 51 + 17 for 68 points. Michael Gbinije has been the O-Dog 5 times, Tyler Roberson 1 time.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted. In this tournament, these are the players who sat us down:
Vs. Charlotte Trevor Cooney Lay-up 29 seconds and Mal Richardson trey 2:49
Vs. Connecticut Michael Gbinije trey 10 seconds and Mal Richardson trey 13 seconds
Vs. Texas A&M Trevor Cooney trey 1:15 and Tyler Roberson 2 point jumper 1:47
The average time we’ve had to wait is 58 seconds. The longest time is 2:49 in the second half against Charlotte. Malachi Richardson has sat us down 5 times, Michael Gbinije 3 times, Trevor Cooney twice and Tyler Roberson and DaJuan Coleman 1 times. We’ve been sat down by 8 treys 3 lay-ups and one 2 point jumper.
Another fun fact is the “Taco Bell MVP”: the guy who gets us to 70 points, (it used to be 75), so people can get free, (or is it discounted?) tacos at Taco Bell. In this tournament:
Vs. Charlotte Trevor Cooney lay-up with 10:39 left.
Vs. Connecticut Trevor Cooney lay-up with 3:10 left.
Vs. Texas A&M Michael Gbinije lay-up with 5:14 left.
Both Cooney and Gbinije have gotten us tacos twice. The average amount of time left in the game has been 5:31.
FOULS
My theory about fouls is that the team that attempts the most two point shots and scores the most in the paint will tend to get fouled the most. If the numbers are as predicted or close, there’s nothing to be read into them but if there’s a big disparity, it makes you wonder about how the game was called.
In this tournament, we attempted 93 two point shots to 130, scored 72 points in the paint to 112 and got fouled 59 times to 53, attempting 73 foul shots to 51. The ratio of two point attempts to times fouled was 1.6 for us and 2.5 for them. The ratio of points in the paint to times fouled was 1.2 for us to 2.1 for them. The ratio of free throw attempts to fouls called on the other team was 1.2 for us and 1.0 for them. (So , numerically, the calls seemed to favor us. )
We are averaging 1.5 two point shots per foul, 1.1 points in the paint per foul and attempted 1.2 foul shots per foul. They are averaging 2.3 two point shots per foul, 2.0 points in the paint per foul and attempted 0.9 foul shots per foul. We’ve been fouled more often compared to our two point shots in 6 games and more often compared to our points in the paint in 6 games. We’ve gotten more fouls shots per foul in 3 games.
“MY MAN”
A reporter once asked Casey Stengel how come he won so many games with the Yankees. He said “Because I never play a game without “my man”. The reporter wondered who his man was. Casey suggested “You could look it up.” The reporter did look it up and found that Yogi Berra had played in every game that season at some positon: catcher, left field, pinch-hitting, something. He was the player Stengel had the highest regard for and the most trust in, so he didn’t want to do without him.
Who is Jim Boeheim’s “man” this season? The only way to tell is to see who plays the most minutes each game. In this tournament, Trevor Cooney led with 36, 39 and 40 minutes. Trevor Cooney has led in minutes in every game so far, so seems to be Jim Boeheim’s ‘man’.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things players do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship players in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Tyler Lydon had 65 net points in 92 minutes, has 105 NP in 186 minutes for the season = 22.6NP/40
Michael Gbinije had 61 net points in 111 minutes, has 107 NP in 212 minutes for the season = 20.2NP/40
Trevor Cooney had 29 net points in 114 minutes, has 60 NP in 230 minutes for the season = 10.4NP/40
Malachi Richardson had 28 net points in 96 minutes, has 50 NP in 193 minutes for the season = 10.4NP/40
DaJuan Coleman had 21 net points in 52 minutes, has 21 NP in 89 minutes for the season = -9.4NP/40
Tyler Roberson had 20 net points in 102 minutes, has 59 NP in 189 minutes for the season = 12.5NP/40
Franklin Howard had 2 net points in 5 minutes, has 5 NP in 27 minutes for the season = 7.4NP/40
Chinoso Obokoh had -2 net points in 2 minutes, has 2 NP in 23 minutes for the season = 5.4NP/40
Kaleb Joseph had -8 net points in 25 minutes, has -2 NP in 51 minutes for the season = -1.6NP/40
DNP-CD
None
INJURED
None
SUSPENDED
None
Comments: Those who felt that Tyler Lydon was the MVP of the Battle For Atlantis were right, at least as far as the stats can tell us: he had more net points in fewer minutes and a higher average per 40: 28.3 to 22.0. He did more things and, from my memory of the games, was at least as clutch. Yet Tyler didn’t even make the all-tournament team. Trevor Cooney was also on it and I guess they didn’t want three players from the same team.
The Stats:
POSSESSION
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 35 offensive and 82 defensive rebounds. They had 43 offensive and 84 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 35 of 103 times, (34.0%, which is good). When they missed, they got the ball 43 of 125 times (34.4%). We’ve won the rebounding battle by this measure 3 times, (2 of the 3 games in Atlantis, where we might have been expected to be overmatched on the boards). For the year we’ve averaged getting 33.5% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 37.1% of theirs.
Effective offensive rebounding: We got 30 second chance points off our 36 offensive rebounds, 0.833 points per rebound. They got 45 for their 43 = 0.946 For the year we’ve averaged 0.743 points per offensive rebound: they’ve averaged 0.946. We’ve also led in this stat 3 times, again 2 of 3 games in Atlantis.
Of our 45 turnovers, 19 were their steals and 26 were our own miscues, (12 of them in the championship game). Of their 35 turnovers, 19 were Syracuse steals and 16 were their fault- ten less unforced turnovers than we had. We’ve had fewer turnovers in 2 games but fewer unforced turnovers in 0 games. It’s an area we need to tighten up as one of the ideas behind the zone is that we will make up for a rebounding deficit with a favorable turnover margin.
If you add our 117 rebounds to their 35 turnovers, we had 152 “manufactured possessions”. They had 111 + 45 = 156. We have won that battle 3 times with 1 even. But for the season we’ve averaged 52.5 MP to 53.0. We are normally well ahead of our early opponents in this stat. And the problem hasn’t been the rebounding as much as it’s been the unforced turnovers: we’ve had 44 of them to 30 for our opposition. I think the lack of a true point guard is hurting us in this area.
SHOOTING
It’s still what the game is all about. It’s what this game was all about, for sure. We were 43 for 93, (.462) inside the arc, 34 for 73, (.466) outside it and 48 for 73, (.658) from the line. They were 59 for 130 (.454), 21/65 (.323) and 32/51 (.627). We’ve led in two point field goal percentage in 4 games, in three point field goals percentage in all 6 games, and in free throw percentage in 3 games. For the season we are .451/.411/.658. Our opposition is .454/.323/.627.
We had 72 points in the paint (PIP), 48 off turnovers (POTO), 30 “second chance” points (SCP), 15 fast break points (FBP) and 47 from the bench (BP). Our opposition had 112 points in the paint, 35 off turnovers, 48 “second chance” points, 27 fast break points and 68 from the bench. We also had 143 of Pat’s “first chance points” (FCP) (total points minus second chance points, fast break points and made free throws) to 106.
We’ve led in PIP 2 times, POTO 3 times, FCP 5 times, SCP 1 times, FBP 3 times, and BP 2 times. For the season we are averaging 22-27 PIP, 15-13.5 POTO, 41-30 FCP, 9-15 SCP, 7-8.5 FBP and 13-19 BP.
We had 236 points, 72 in the paint, 102 from the arc and 48 from the line so we had 116 ”POP”, (points outside the paint: 236-72-48) and scored 14 points, (116 POP-102 from the arc), from what I’ll call the Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 213/112/63/32 = 69 POP with 6 from the Twilight Zone. We’ve led in POP 4 times. We’ve led in TZ points 4 times with one tie. For the year we are averaging 19 POP and 4 TZ, our opposition 11.5/1. The game is so much easier when you don’t have to go to the basket for all your points.
13 of our 20 baskets were assisted (.650) and also 17 of their 21 (.810). For the year we are assisting on 66.1% of our baskets to 68.3% for the opposition, who have had a higher percentage in 1 game. Assists tend to come more often from jump shots than lay-ups or dunks so the more assists you get, the more you are settling for jump shots to try to win the game which is often a bad strategy but, as JB says, is the
way we have to play this year because of our personnel.
You compute possessions by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 166 FGA - 36 OREBs + 45 TOs + (.475 x 73) = 209.675 possessions. They were 195 -43+ 35+ (.475 x 51) = 211.225 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 210 possessions for us and 211 for them. There were 411 combined possessions in these games, 137 per game. We’ve averaged 136 possessions per game this year.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by dividing the points scored by the number of possessions. We scored 236 points in 210 possessions (1.124). They scored 213 points in 211 possessions (1.009). We have, of course, led 6 games in offensive efficiency since the winning team always leads in that stat. For the year we are averaging 1.074 points per possession to 0.932 for the opposition.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for these games: 59-47, 58-49, 57-54, 62-63. For the season we have an average of 16-15, 18-13, 18.5-19, 20-17. We’ve won 13 of 24 quarters with 1 even. We’ve scored 15 or more in 18 quarters and held the opposition under that 10 times.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog, and use the hockey concept of points + assists. Michael Gbinije was our ODOG in every game with a total of 63 points and 15 assists for 78 “hockey points. Trevor Cooney was closest with 51 + 17 for 68 points. Michael Gbinije has been the O-Dog 5 times, Tyler Roberson 1 time.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted. In this tournament, these are the players who sat us down:
Vs. Charlotte Trevor Cooney Lay-up 29 seconds and Mal Richardson trey 2:49
Vs. Connecticut Michael Gbinije trey 10 seconds and Mal Richardson trey 13 seconds
Vs. Texas A&M Trevor Cooney trey 1:15 and Tyler Roberson 2 point jumper 1:47
The average time we’ve had to wait is 58 seconds. The longest time is 2:49 in the second half against Charlotte. Malachi Richardson has sat us down 5 times, Michael Gbinije 3 times, Trevor Cooney twice and Tyler Roberson and DaJuan Coleman 1 times. We’ve been sat down by 8 treys 3 lay-ups and one 2 point jumper.
Another fun fact is the “Taco Bell MVP”: the guy who gets us to 70 points, (it used to be 75), so people can get free, (or is it discounted?) tacos at Taco Bell. In this tournament:
Vs. Charlotte Trevor Cooney lay-up with 10:39 left.
Vs. Connecticut Trevor Cooney lay-up with 3:10 left.
Vs. Texas A&M Michael Gbinije lay-up with 5:14 left.
Both Cooney and Gbinije have gotten us tacos twice. The average amount of time left in the game has been 5:31.
FOULS
My theory about fouls is that the team that attempts the most two point shots and scores the most in the paint will tend to get fouled the most. If the numbers are as predicted or close, there’s nothing to be read into them but if there’s a big disparity, it makes you wonder about how the game was called.
In this tournament, we attempted 93 two point shots to 130, scored 72 points in the paint to 112 and got fouled 59 times to 53, attempting 73 foul shots to 51. The ratio of two point attempts to times fouled was 1.6 for us and 2.5 for them. The ratio of points in the paint to times fouled was 1.2 for us to 2.1 for them. The ratio of free throw attempts to fouls called on the other team was 1.2 for us and 1.0 for them. (So , numerically, the calls seemed to favor us. )
We are averaging 1.5 two point shots per foul, 1.1 points in the paint per foul and attempted 1.2 foul shots per foul. They are averaging 2.3 two point shots per foul, 2.0 points in the paint per foul and attempted 0.9 foul shots per foul. We’ve been fouled more often compared to our two point shots in 6 games and more often compared to our points in the paint in 6 games. We’ve gotten more fouls shots per foul in 3 games.
“MY MAN”
A reporter once asked Casey Stengel how come he won so many games with the Yankees. He said “Because I never play a game without “my man”. The reporter wondered who his man was. Casey suggested “You could look it up.” The reporter did look it up and found that Yogi Berra had played in every game that season at some positon: catcher, left field, pinch-hitting, something. He was the player Stengel had the highest regard for and the most trust in, so he didn’t want to do without him.
Who is Jim Boeheim’s “man” this season? The only way to tell is to see who plays the most minutes each game. In this tournament, Trevor Cooney led with 36, 39 and 40 minutes. Trevor Cooney has led in minutes in every game so far, so seems to be Jim Boeheim’s ‘man’.