SWC75
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I’ll continue doing a statistical analysis of games this year with some of the off-beat numbers I like to look at. I’ll post them after each game, probably the next day.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things player do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Tyler Ennis………….. 21NP in 31 minutes season: 30NP in 59 minutes per 40: 20.3
C. J. Fair………………. 20NP in 32 minutes season: 30NP in 67 minutes per 40: 17.9
Jerami Grant……….. 16NP in 27 minutes season: 16NP in 27 minutes per 40: 23.7
DaJuan Coleman…. 9NP in 19 minutes season: 12NP in 30 minutes per 40: 16.0
Baye Moussa Keita 7NP in 13 minutes season: 14NP in 29 minutes per 40: 19.3
Rakeem Christmas 6NP in 18 minutes season: 21NP in 45 minutes per 40: 18.7
Tyler Roberson……. 3NP in 12 minutes season: 7NP in 26 minutes per 40: 10.8
Ron Patterson…….. 2NP in 8 minutes season: 3NP in 14 minutes per 40: 8.6
Michael Gbinije …. 2NP in 11 minutes season: 14NP in 31 minutes per 40: 18.1
Trevor Cooney…… - 2NP in 20 minutes season: 30NP in 48 minutes per 40: 25.0
B. J. Johnson……….. -5NP in 9 minutes season: 0NP in 21 minutes per 40: 00.0
Comment: obviously the per 40 averages will become more meaningful as the season progresses with more games and tougher opponents. Cooney still has the highest average despite a lousy second game. Everybody seems to have played differently in each game. Fortunately, we’ve got a lot of answers. I’ve always used this formula vs. a good opponent: if 1-2 guys play well, we’ll lose. If 3-4 guys play well we’ll probably win. If more than that play well, we’ll blow them out. We have 11 guys who will play and are capable of playing well.
Trevor Cooney and Tyler Ennis have each led the team in net points once in games this year.
Possession:
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 22 offensive and 26 defensive rebounds. They had 7 offensive and 22 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 22 of 44 times, (50.0%). When they missed, they got the ball 7 of 33 times (21.2%). Syracuse has won both rebounding battles this season, averaging .433 to .233.
Of our 11 turnovers, 6 were their steals and 8 were our own miscues. Of their 19 turnovers, 15 were Syracuse steals and 4 were their fault. Syracuse has had fewer turnovers in both games, (25-36) but more unforced errors, (15- 9).
If you add our 48 rebounds to their 19 turnovers, we had 67 “manufactured possessions”. They had 29 + 11 = 40, so we were +27. We’ve won that battle both times this season, with an average margin of +21.
Shooting:
It’s still what the game is all about. We were 27 for 49, (.551), inside the arc, 2 for 16, (.125), outside it and 29 for 42 (.690) from the Line. They were 10/21, (.476), 11/27 (.407) and 21 for 30, (.700). Syracuse is shooting .553/.333/.683, the opposition .512/.356/.711. The three point shooting against us has been good but the two point shooting is unusually good for these early season opponents.
We had 89 points, 38 in the paint, 6 from the arc and 29 from the line so we scored 16 points from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 74-16-33-21 = 4 points in the Twilight Zone. Overall, we had 22 POP: Points Outside the Paint to 37 for them. So far this year Syracuse is averaging 29 POP, 11 from the TZ, the opposition 34.5/3.
12 of our 29 baskets were assists (.414) and 16 of their 21 (.762). For the year we are assisting on 52.5% of our baskets to 67.4% for the opposition.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 65 FGA -22 OREBS + 11 + (.475 x 42) = 73.95 possessions. They were 48 – 7 + 19 + (.475 x 30) = 74.25 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 74 possessions in which we scored 89 points, (1.203) and 74 possession in which they scored 74 points, (1.000). For the year we are 1.213 vs. 0.943.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game: 18-8, 28-13, 26-28, 17-25. The average for the season is: 16.5-11.5, 22-17.5, 28-19, 18.5-18.5. We’ve won five quarters, lost three. We’ve scores at least 15 in every quarter and held the opposition under that four times.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog. I decided to use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game, CJ Fair had 26 points, no assists to earn the “O-Dog” distinction, which he no doubt will many times this year. So far he and Trevor Cooney have done it once each.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted that those alter in the game, (although sometimes we don’t score until later in the game. Tyler Ennis sat us down with a lay-up 14 seconds into the first half and did it again with a jumper 1:37 into the second half. He’s done it twice, CJ Fair and DaJuan Coleman have done it once each.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things player do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Tyler Ennis………….. 21NP in 31 minutes season: 30NP in 59 minutes per 40: 20.3
C. J. Fair………………. 20NP in 32 minutes season: 30NP in 67 minutes per 40: 17.9
Jerami Grant……….. 16NP in 27 minutes season: 16NP in 27 minutes per 40: 23.7
DaJuan Coleman…. 9NP in 19 minutes season: 12NP in 30 minutes per 40: 16.0
Baye Moussa Keita 7NP in 13 minutes season: 14NP in 29 minutes per 40: 19.3
Rakeem Christmas 6NP in 18 minutes season: 21NP in 45 minutes per 40: 18.7
Tyler Roberson……. 3NP in 12 minutes season: 7NP in 26 minutes per 40: 10.8
Ron Patterson…….. 2NP in 8 minutes season: 3NP in 14 minutes per 40: 8.6
Michael Gbinije …. 2NP in 11 minutes season: 14NP in 31 minutes per 40: 18.1
Trevor Cooney…… - 2NP in 20 minutes season: 30NP in 48 minutes per 40: 25.0
B. J. Johnson……….. -5NP in 9 minutes season: 0NP in 21 minutes per 40: 00.0
Comment: obviously the per 40 averages will become more meaningful as the season progresses with more games and tougher opponents. Cooney still has the highest average despite a lousy second game. Everybody seems to have played differently in each game. Fortunately, we’ve got a lot of answers. I’ve always used this formula vs. a good opponent: if 1-2 guys play well, we’ll lose. If 3-4 guys play well we’ll probably win. If more than that play well, we’ll blow them out. We have 11 guys who will play and are capable of playing well.
Trevor Cooney and Tyler Ennis have each led the team in net points once in games this year.
Possession:
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 22 offensive and 26 defensive rebounds. They had 7 offensive and 22 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 22 of 44 times, (50.0%). When they missed, they got the ball 7 of 33 times (21.2%). Syracuse has won both rebounding battles this season, averaging .433 to .233.
Of our 11 turnovers, 6 were their steals and 8 were our own miscues. Of their 19 turnovers, 15 were Syracuse steals and 4 were their fault. Syracuse has had fewer turnovers in both games, (25-36) but more unforced errors, (15- 9).
If you add our 48 rebounds to their 19 turnovers, we had 67 “manufactured possessions”. They had 29 + 11 = 40, so we were +27. We’ve won that battle both times this season, with an average margin of +21.
Shooting:
It’s still what the game is all about. We were 27 for 49, (.551), inside the arc, 2 for 16, (.125), outside it and 29 for 42 (.690) from the Line. They were 10/21, (.476), 11/27 (.407) and 21 for 30, (.700). Syracuse is shooting .553/.333/.683, the opposition .512/.356/.711. The three point shooting against us has been good but the two point shooting is unusually good for these early season opponents.
We had 89 points, 38 in the paint, 6 from the arc and 29 from the line so we scored 16 points from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 74-16-33-21 = 4 points in the Twilight Zone. Overall, we had 22 POP: Points Outside the Paint to 37 for them. So far this year Syracuse is averaging 29 POP, 11 from the TZ, the opposition 34.5/3.
12 of our 29 baskets were assists (.414) and 16 of their 21 (.762). For the year we are assisting on 52.5% of our baskets to 67.4% for the opposition.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 65 FGA -22 OREBS + 11 + (.475 x 42) = 73.95 possessions. They were 48 – 7 + 19 + (.475 x 30) = 74.25 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 74 possessions in which we scored 89 points, (1.203) and 74 possession in which they scored 74 points, (1.000). For the year we are 1.213 vs. 0.943.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game: 18-8, 28-13, 26-28, 17-25. The average for the season is: 16.5-11.5, 22-17.5, 28-19, 18.5-18.5. We’ve won five quarters, lost three. We’ve scores at least 15 in every quarter and held the opposition under that four times.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog. I decided to use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game, CJ Fair had 26 points, no assists to earn the “O-Dog” distinction, which he no doubt will many times this year. So far he and Trevor Cooney have done it once each.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted that those alter in the game, (although sometimes we don’t score until later in the game. Tyler Ennis sat us down with a lay-up 14 seconds into the first half and did it again with a jumper 1:37 into the second half. He’s done it twice, CJ Fair and DaJuan Coleman have done it once each.