SWC75
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I’ll continue doing a statistical analysis of games this year with some of the off-beat numbers I like to look at. I’ll post them after each game, probably the next day.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things players do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Rakeem Christmas 32NP in 37 minutes season: 237NP in 362 minutes per 40: 26.2
Michael Gbinije….. 31NP in 40 minutes season: 104NP in 318 minutes per 40: 13.1
Kaleb Joseph……….. 11NP in 30 minutes season: 84NP in 397 minutes per 40: 8.5
Trevor Cooney…… 10NP in 40 minutes season: 117NP in 428 minutes per 40: 10.9
Chris McCullough.. 8NP in 23 minutes season: 148NP in 376 minutes per 40: 15.7
Tyler Roberson……. 7NP in 20 minutes season: 77NP in 197 minutes per 40: 15.6
Ron Patterson…….. 1NP in 10 minutes season: 17NP in 115 minutes per 40: 5.9
DNP-CD- none
B. J. Johnson……….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 61NP in 181 minutes per 40: 13.5
Chinoso Obokoh….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 19NP in 38 minutes per 40: 20.0
INJURED
DaJuan Coleman…. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 0NP in 0 minutes per 40: 0.0
SUSPENDED
None
Comment: The development of Michael Gbinije and Trevor Cooney to go with the continuing excellence of Rakeem Christmas has really changed this tea, Gbinije increased him NP per 40 from 10.5-13.1 in this one game.
Rakeem Christmas has led in net points 5 times, Chris McCullough 4 times, Mike Gbinije, BJ Johnson and Tyler Roberson once each.
POSSESSION
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 9 offensive and 23 defensive rebounds. They had 10 offensive and 17 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball only 9 of 26 times, (34.6%). When they missed, they got the ball 10 of 33 times (30.3%). We’ve won the rebounding battle in every game by this measure 10 times in 12 games. We’ve averaged getting 38% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 30% of theirs.
Of our 13 turnovers, 8 were their steals and 5 were our own miscues. Of their 15 turnovers, 9 were Syracuse steals and 6 were their fault. We have had fewer turnovers in 7 of 12 games with 1 even. Last year we had fewer turnovers in 29 of 34 games with 2 even. We are averaging 13 turnovers, 6 unforced, Our opposition is averaging 16/6.5.
If you add our 32 rebounds to their 15 turnovers, we had 47 “manufactured possessions”. They had 27 + 13 = 40, so we were +7. We have won that battle it 9 of 12 times. For the season we’ve averaged 55 to 46 (+9).
SHOOTING
It’s still what the game is all about. It’s what this game was all about, for sure. We were 23 for 40, (.575) inside the arc, 7 for 12, (.583) outside it and 18 for 24 (.750) from the line. They were 21 for 36 (.583), 6/23 (.261) and 7/8 (.875). We’ve led in two point field goal percentage in 8 of 12 games and in free throw percentage in 8 games. We’ve led in three point field goals percentage, believe it or not, in 7 games, (our opposition isn’t exactly filling it up, either). For the season we are .519/.285/.668. Our opposition is .430/.288/.700. You can see why Jim Boeheim was upset with the defense- giving up 58% inside the arc is way above the normal percentage we allow.
We had 38 points in the paint, 24 off turnovers, 12 “second chance” points, 16 fast break points and 6 from the bench. Our opposition had 38 points in the paint, 6 off turnovers, 14 “second chance” points, 12 fast break points and 12 from the bench. We’ve led in PIP 7 times, POTO 8 times, SCP 7 times, FBP 6 times with two ties and BP 7 times, with a tie. For the season we are averaging 35-24 PIP, 17-12 POTO, 13-10 SCP, 10-8 FBP and 13-12 BP.
We had 85 points, 38 in the paint, 21 from the arc and 18 from the line so we had 29 ”POP”, (points outside the paint: 85-38-18) and scored 8 points, (29 POP-21 from the arc), from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. It was a weapon we used to very good effect in this game. They had 67/38/18/7= 22 POP and 4 from the Twilight Zone. We’ve only led in POP 5 times but we’ve led in TZ points 9 times in 12 games. For the year we are averaging 22 POP and 9 TZ, our opposition 24/6. The game is so much easier when you don’t have to go to the basket for all your points.
22 of our 30 baskets were assisted (.733) and 15 of their 27 (.556). For the year we are assisting on 63% of our baskets to 63% for the opposition, who have had a higher percentage in 7 of 12 games. Assists tend to come more often from jump shots than lay-ups or dunks so the more assists you get, the more you are settling for jump shots to try to win the game which is often a bad strategy. But I think in this game, the high assist percentage was the result of excellent and creative passing by both teams.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 52 FGA - 9 OREBs + 13 TOs + (.475 x 24) = 67.4 possessions. They were 59 -10+ 15+ (.475 x 8) = 67.8 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 67 possessions in which we scored 85 points, (1.269) and 68 possessions in which they scored 67 points, (0.985). We have, of course, led 8 of 12 games in offensive efficiency since the winning team always leads in that stat. For the year we are averaging 1.048 points per possession to 0.870 for the opposition.
We had 135 combined possessions in this game. We’ve averaged 134 this year. We averaged 122 last year, so the pace appears to be better than it was last year.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog, and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game Michael Gbinije had 24 points and 8 assists for 32 “hockey” points and thus was our co-ODOG. Rakeem Christmas has been the O-Dog 4 times, Trevor Cooney and Michael Gbinije 3 times , BJ Johnson, Kaleb Joseph and Chris McCullough once each.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game 20-21, 24-19, 20-13, 21-14. For the season, we have an average of 16.5-12, 18-14, 16-15, 19-17. We’ve won 33 of 48 quarters. We’ve scored 15 or more in 34 quarters and held the opposition under that 26 times.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted. Rakeem Christmas opened the first half with a lay-up at 19:32 and Michael Gbinije did the same with a jumper in the second half at 18:28. The average time we’ve had to wait is 1 minute 22 seconds. The longest we’ve waited this season is 2 minutes and 52 seconds in the first half vs. Loyola, (of course they would have waited for 11:30 in that game). Rakeem Christmas has sat us down 7 times, Kaleb Joseph, 4 times, Michael Gbinije and Chris McCullough 3 times, Trevor Cooney twice and Tyler Roberson once. .
Another fun fact is the “Taco Bell MVP”: the guy who gets us to 75 points so people can free, (or is it discounted?) tacos at Taco Bell. Rakeem Christmas put the tacos in our mouths with a couple of free throws with 5:50 second left in the game, (after we’d been waiting for 58 seconds. The longest we’ve had to wait is 3:31). Rakeem Christmas, Trevor Cooney, BJ Johnson and Ron Patterson have each got us Tacos once. I wonder how many points we have to score to get real meat in the tacos?
FOULS
My theory about fouls is that the team that attempts the most two point shots will tend to get fouled the most. If the numbers are as predicted or close, there’s nothing to be read into them but if there’s a big disparity, it makes you wonder about how the game was called. In this game, we attempted 40 two point shots to 36, scored 38 points in the paint to 38 and got fouled 20 times to 9, attempting 24 foul shots to 8. The ratio of two point attempts to times fouled was 2.0 for us and 4.0 for them. The ratio of points in the paint to times fouled was 1.9 for us to 4.2 for them. The ratio of free throw attempts to fouls called on the other team was 1.2 for us and 0.9 for them. Long Beach State might have a complaint about the officiating, although I only remember one call that seemed egregiously bad, (a player was clearly tripped and got called for traveling).
Last year we attempted 1368 two point shots to 993 for the opposition and scored 1028 PIP to 753. We committed 546 fouls to 598 and went to the line 720 to 607 times, suggesting that there should be a relationship between two points attempts and points in the point and how many fouls are called on the other team and how many times you got to the line. The ratio of two point attempts to times fouled was 2.3 for us and 1.8 for them. The ratio of points in the paint to times fouled was 1.7 for us to 1.4 for them. The ratio of free throw attempts to fouls called on the other team was 1.2 for us and 1.1 for them.
This year we have taken 513 two point shots and scored 424 points in the paint. We’ve been fouled 210 times and taken 243 free throws. Our opposition has taken 421 two point shots and scored 294 points in the paint. They’ve been fouled 183 times and taken only 194 free throws. The ratio of two point attempts to times fouled has been 2.4 for us and 2.4 for them. The ratio of points in the paint to times fouled has been 2.0 for us to 1.6 for them. The ratio of free throw attempts to fouls called on the other team has been 1.2 for us and 1.1 for them.
“MY MAN”
A reporter once asked Casey Stengel how come he won so many games with the Yankees. He said “Because I never play a game without “my man”. The reporter wondered who his man was. Casey suggested “You could look it up.” The reporter did look it up and found that Yogi Berra had played in every game that season at some positon: catcher, left field, pinch-hitting, something. He was the player Stengel had the highest regard for and the most trust in, so he didn’t want to do without him. Who is Jim Boeheim’s “man” this season? The only way to tell is to see who plays the most minutes each game. In this game, Trevor Cooney and Michael Gbinije both played 40 minutes. Trevor Cooney has been the “Man” 7 times, Chris McCullough and Kaleb Joseph 4 times Michael Gbinije twice and Rakeem Christmas once. Cooney has re-taken the team lead in minutes played with 428, 31 more than any other player. In the beginning of the season, I think it was because he “used up” a defender on the perimeter. Now I believe it’s because of his all-around skills in handling the ball, driving to the basket and shooting. He’s become the guy Boeheim most wants with the ball in his hands. But if Gbinije keeps playing the way he is, that could change.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things players do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Rakeem Christmas 32NP in 37 minutes season: 237NP in 362 minutes per 40: 26.2
Michael Gbinije….. 31NP in 40 minutes season: 104NP in 318 minutes per 40: 13.1
Kaleb Joseph……….. 11NP in 30 minutes season: 84NP in 397 minutes per 40: 8.5
Trevor Cooney…… 10NP in 40 minutes season: 117NP in 428 minutes per 40: 10.9
Chris McCullough.. 8NP in 23 minutes season: 148NP in 376 minutes per 40: 15.7
Tyler Roberson……. 7NP in 20 minutes season: 77NP in 197 minutes per 40: 15.6
Ron Patterson…….. 1NP in 10 minutes season: 17NP in 115 minutes per 40: 5.9
DNP-CD- none
B. J. Johnson……….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 61NP in 181 minutes per 40: 13.5
Chinoso Obokoh….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 19NP in 38 minutes per 40: 20.0
INJURED
DaJuan Coleman…. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 0NP in 0 minutes per 40: 0.0
SUSPENDED
None
Comment: The development of Michael Gbinije and Trevor Cooney to go with the continuing excellence of Rakeem Christmas has really changed this tea, Gbinije increased him NP per 40 from 10.5-13.1 in this one game.
Rakeem Christmas has led in net points 5 times, Chris McCullough 4 times, Mike Gbinije, BJ Johnson and Tyler Roberson once each.
POSSESSION
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 9 offensive and 23 defensive rebounds. They had 10 offensive and 17 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball only 9 of 26 times, (34.6%). When they missed, they got the ball 10 of 33 times (30.3%). We’ve won the rebounding battle in every game by this measure 10 times in 12 games. We’ve averaged getting 38% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 30% of theirs.
Of our 13 turnovers, 8 were their steals and 5 were our own miscues. Of their 15 turnovers, 9 were Syracuse steals and 6 were their fault. We have had fewer turnovers in 7 of 12 games with 1 even. Last year we had fewer turnovers in 29 of 34 games with 2 even. We are averaging 13 turnovers, 6 unforced, Our opposition is averaging 16/6.5.
If you add our 32 rebounds to their 15 turnovers, we had 47 “manufactured possessions”. They had 27 + 13 = 40, so we were +7. We have won that battle it 9 of 12 times. For the season we’ve averaged 55 to 46 (+9).
SHOOTING
It’s still what the game is all about. It’s what this game was all about, for sure. We were 23 for 40, (.575) inside the arc, 7 for 12, (.583) outside it and 18 for 24 (.750) from the line. They were 21 for 36 (.583), 6/23 (.261) and 7/8 (.875). We’ve led in two point field goal percentage in 8 of 12 games and in free throw percentage in 8 games. We’ve led in three point field goals percentage, believe it or not, in 7 games, (our opposition isn’t exactly filling it up, either). For the season we are .519/.285/.668. Our opposition is .430/.288/.700. You can see why Jim Boeheim was upset with the defense- giving up 58% inside the arc is way above the normal percentage we allow.
We had 38 points in the paint, 24 off turnovers, 12 “second chance” points, 16 fast break points and 6 from the bench. Our opposition had 38 points in the paint, 6 off turnovers, 14 “second chance” points, 12 fast break points and 12 from the bench. We’ve led in PIP 7 times, POTO 8 times, SCP 7 times, FBP 6 times with two ties and BP 7 times, with a tie. For the season we are averaging 35-24 PIP, 17-12 POTO, 13-10 SCP, 10-8 FBP and 13-12 BP.
We had 85 points, 38 in the paint, 21 from the arc and 18 from the line so we had 29 ”POP”, (points outside the paint: 85-38-18) and scored 8 points, (29 POP-21 from the arc), from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. It was a weapon we used to very good effect in this game. They had 67/38/18/7= 22 POP and 4 from the Twilight Zone. We’ve only led in POP 5 times but we’ve led in TZ points 9 times in 12 games. For the year we are averaging 22 POP and 9 TZ, our opposition 24/6. The game is so much easier when you don’t have to go to the basket for all your points.
22 of our 30 baskets were assisted (.733) and 15 of their 27 (.556). For the year we are assisting on 63% of our baskets to 63% for the opposition, who have had a higher percentage in 7 of 12 games. Assists tend to come more often from jump shots than lay-ups or dunks so the more assists you get, the more you are settling for jump shots to try to win the game which is often a bad strategy. But I think in this game, the high assist percentage was the result of excellent and creative passing by both teams.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 52 FGA - 9 OREBs + 13 TOs + (.475 x 24) = 67.4 possessions. They were 59 -10+ 15+ (.475 x 8) = 67.8 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 67 possessions in which we scored 85 points, (1.269) and 68 possessions in which they scored 67 points, (0.985). We have, of course, led 8 of 12 games in offensive efficiency since the winning team always leads in that stat. For the year we are averaging 1.048 points per possession to 0.870 for the opposition.
We had 135 combined possessions in this game. We’ve averaged 134 this year. We averaged 122 last year, so the pace appears to be better than it was last year.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog, and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game Michael Gbinije had 24 points and 8 assists for 32 “hockey” points and thus was our co-ODOG. Rakeem Christmas has been the O-Dog 4 times, Trevor Cooney and Michael Gbinije 3 times , BJ Johnson, Kaleb Joseph and Chris McCullough once each.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game 20-21, 24-19, 20-13, 21-14. For the season, we have an average of 16.5-12, 18-14, 16-15, 19-17. We’ve won 33 of 48 quarters. We’ve scored 15 or more in 34 quarters and held the opposition under that 26 times.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted. Rakeem Christmas opened the first half with a lay-up at 19:32 and Michael Gbinije did the same with a jumper in the second half at 18:28. The average time we’ve had to wait is 1 minute 22 seconds. The longest we’ve waited this season is 2 minutes and 52 seconds in the first half vs. Loyola, (of course they would have waited for 11:30 in that game). Rakeem Christmas has sat us down 7 times, Kaleb Joseph, 4 times, Michael Gbinije and Chris McCullough 3 times, Trevor Cooney twice and Tyler Roberson once. .
Another fun fact is the “Taco Bell MVP”: the guy who gets us to 75 points so people can free, (or is it discounted?) tacos at Taco Bell. Rakeem Christmas put the tacos in our mouths with a couple of free throws with 5:50 second left in the game, (after we’d been waiting for 58 seconds. The longest we’ve had to wait is 3:31). Rakeem Christmas, Trevor Cooney, BJ Johnson and Ron Patterson have each got us Tacos once. I wonder how many points we have to score to get real meat in the tacos?
FOULS
My theory about fouls is that the team that attempts the most two point shots will tend to get fouled the most. If the numbers are as predicted or close, there’s nothing to be read into them but if there’s a big disparity, it makes you wonder about how the game was called. In this game, we attempted 40 two point shots to 36, scored 38 points in the paint to 38 and got fouled 20 times to 9, attempting 24 foul shots to 8. The ratio of two point attempts to times fouled was 2.0 for us and 4.0 for them. The ratio of points in the paint to times fouled was 1.9 for us to 4.2 for them. The ratio of free throw attempts to fouls called on the other team was 1.2 for us and 0.9 for them. Long Beach State might have a complaint about the officiating, although I only remember one call that seemed egregiously bad, (a player was clearly tripped and got called for traveling).
Last year we attempted 1368 two point shots to 993 for the opposition and scored 1028 PIP to 753. We committed 546 fouls to 598 and went to the line 720 to 607 times, suggesting that there should be a relationship between two points attempts and points in the point and how many fouls are called on the other team and how many times you got to the line. The ratio of two point attempts to times fouled was 2.3 for us and 1.8 for them. The ratio of points in the paint to times fouled was 1.7 for us to 1.4 for them. The ratio of free throw attempts to fouls called on the other team was 1.2 for us and 1.1 for them.
This year we have taken 513 two point shots and scored 424 points in the paint. We’ve been fouled 210 times and taken 243 free throws. Our opposition has taken 421 two point shots and scored 294 points in the paint. They’ve been fouled 183 times and taken only 194 free throws. The ratio of two point attempts to times fouled has been 2.4 for us and 2.4 for them. The ratio of points in the paint to times fouled has been 2.0 for us to 1.6 for them. The ratio of free throw attempts to fouls called on the other team has been 1.2 for us and 1.1 for them.
“MY MAN”
A reporter once asked Casey Stengel how come he won so many games with the Yankees. He said “Because I never play a game without “my man”. The reporter wondered who his man was. Casey suggested “You could look it up.” The reporter did look it up and found that Yogi Berra had played in every game that season at some positon: catcher, left field, pinch-hitting, something. He was the player Stengel had the highest regard for and the most trust in, so he didn’t want to do without him. Who is Jim Boeheim’s “man” this season? The only way to tell is to see who plays the most minutes each game. In this game, Trevor Cooney and Michael Gbinije both played 40 minutes. Trevor Cooney has been the “Man” 7 times, Chris McCullough and Kaleb Joseph 4 times Michael Gbinije twice and Rakeem Christmas once. Cooney has re-taken the team lead in minutes played with 428, 31 more than any other player. In the beginning of the season, I think it was because he “used up” a defender on the perimeter. Now I believe it’s because of his all-around skills in handling the ball, driving to the basket and shooting. He’s become the guy Boeheim most wants with the ball in his hands. But if Gbinije keeps playing the way he is, that could change.