SWC75
Bored Historian
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I’ll continue doing a statistical analysis of games this year with some of the off-beat numbers I like to look at. I’ll post them after each game, probably the next day.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things players do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Tyler Roberson……. 24NP in 33 minutes season: 52NP in 128 minutes per 40: 16.3
Trevor Cooney…… 20NP in 40 minutes season: 79NP in 314 minutes per 40: 10.1
Rakeem Christmas 12NP in 25 minutes season: 168NP in 269 minutes per 40: 25.0
Chris McCullough.. 6NP in 26 minutes season: 138NP in 302 minutes per 40: 18.3
Michael Gbinije….. 5NP in 14 minutes season: 43NP in 210 minutes per 40: 8.2
Kaleb Joseph……….. 0NP in 40 minutes season: 64NP in 296 minutes per 40: 8.6
B. J. Johnson……….. -6NP in 22 minutes season: 50NP in 158 minutes per 40: 12.7
DNP-CD- none
Chinoso Obokoh….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 14NP in 30 minutes per 40: 18.7
Ron Patterson…….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 2NP in 83 minutes per 40: 1.0
INJURED
DaJuan Coleman…. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 0NP in 0 minutes per 40: 0.0
SUSPENDED
None
Comment: Tyler Roberson had 28NP in 95 minutes coming into this game and almost doubled that output in 33 minutes in this game. His NP per 40 rose from 11.8 to 16.3. Everybody talked about the lousy game Kaleb Joseph had: he did some good things, (9 points, 4 assists) and some bad things, (8 turnovers). BJ Johnson did some bad things, (0 for 7 , 4 turnovers), but not nearly enough good things to make up for it.
POSSESSION
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 20 offensive and 20 defensive rebounds. They had 11 offensive and 19 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 20 of 39 times, (51.3%). When they missed, they got the ball 11 of 31 times (35.5%). We’ve won the rebounding battle in every game by this measure in every game except Iowa. We’ve averaged getting 40% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 29% of theirs.
Of our 17 turnovers, 10 were their steals and 7 were our own miscues. Of their 17 turnovers, 10 were Syracuse steals and 7 were their fault. That’s right. For all the hand-wringing over our turnovers, both teams had the exact same numbers. We have had fewer turnovers in 5 of 9 games with 1 even. Last year we had fewer turnovers in 29 of 34 games with 2 even. We are averaging 13 turnovers, 7 unforced, (that’s right: our unforced turnovers for this game were ‘average’ for the way we’ve played this year). Our opposition is averaging 15/6.
If you add our 40 rebounds to their 17 turnovers, we had 57 “manufactured possessions”. They had 30 + 17= 47, so we were +10. We have won that battle it 7 of 9 times. For the season we’ve averaged 57 to 47 (+10), exactly what we had in this game.
SHOOTING
It’s still what the game is all about. It’s what this game was all about, for sure. We were 21 for 50, (.420) inside the arc, 5 for 12, (.417) outside it and 14 for 19 (.737) from the line. They were 19 for 36 (.528), 5/17 (.294) and 16/23 (.696). We’ve led in two point field goal percentage in 7 of 9 games and in free throw percentage in 7 of 9 games. We’ve led in three point field goals percentage, believe it or not, in 4 of 9 games, (our opposition isn’t exactly filling it up, either: even Michigan was 33.3% from the arc). For the season we are .518/.225/.663. Our opposition is .397/.316/.667.
We had 36 points in the paint, 19 off turnovers, 16 “second chance” points, 10 fast break points and 17 from the bench. Our opposition had 36 points in the paint, 19 off turnovers, 16 “second chance” points, 14 fast break points and 14 from the bench. We’ve led in PIP 6 times, POTO 6 times, SCP 6 times, FBP 5 times and BP 6 times, with one tie. For the season we are averaging 36-21 PIP, 17-12 POTO, 14-9 SCP, 10-8 FBP and 13-11 BP.
We had 71 points, 36 in the paint, 15 from the arc and 14 from the line so we had 21”POP”, (points outside the paint: 71-36-14) and scored 6 points, (21 POP-15 from the arc), from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 69/36/15/16= 17 POP and 2 from the Twilight Zone. We’ve only led in POP twice. For the year we are averaging 19 POP and 9 TZ, our opposition 25/6. The game is so much easier when you don’t have to go to the basket for all your points.
15 of our 26 baskets were assisted (.577) and 13 of their 24 (.542). For the year we are assisting on 61% of our baskets to 65% for the opposition, who have had a higher percentage in 6 of 9 games. Assists tend to come more often from jump shots than lay-ups or dunks so the more assists you get, the more you are settling for jump shots to try to win the game which is often a bad strategy.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 62 FGA - 20 OREBs + 17 TOs + (.475 x 19) = 68.025 possessions. They were 53 -11+ 17+ (.475 x 23) = 69.925 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 68 possessions in which we scored 71 points, (1.044) and 69 possessions in which they scored 69 points, (1.000). We have, of course, led 6 of 9 games in offensive efficiency since the winning team always leads in that stat. For the year we are averaging 1.018 points per possession to 0.858 for the opposition.
We had 137 combined possessions in this game. We’ve averaged 134 this year. We averaged 122 last year, so the pace appears to be better than it was last year.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog, and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game Trevor Cooney had 25 points plus 2 assists for 27 “hockey” points and are our co-ODOGs. Rakeem Christmas has been the O-Dog 4 times, Trevor Cooney twice, Michael Gbinije, BJ Johnson, Kaleb Joseph and Chris McCullough once each.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game 19-14, 13-17, 16-11, 23-27. For the season, we have an average of 15-11, 17-15, 17-15, 19-17. We’ve won 25 of 34 quarters. We’ve scored 15 or more in 23 quarters and held the opposition under that 20 times.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted Trevor Cooney Joseph opened the first half with a lay-up at 19:43 and Tyler Roberson did the same in the second half at 18:44. The average time we’ve had to wait is 1 minute 33 seconds. The longest we’ve waited this season is 2 minutes and 52 seconds in the first half vs. Loyola, (of course they would have waited for 11:30 in that game). Rakeem Christmas has sat us down 6 times, Chris McCullough and Kaleb Joseph 3 times, Trevor Cooney twice and Tyler Roberson once.
FOULS
My theory about fouls is that the team that attempts the most two point shots will tend to get fouled the most. If the numbers are as predicted or close, there’s nothing to be read into them but if there’s a big disparity, it makes you wonder about how the game was called. In this game, we attempted 50 two point shots to 36, scored 36 points in the paint to 36 and got fouled 18 times to 17, attempting 19 foul shots to 23. Louisiana Tech got to the line a bit more than we did, perhaps a product of their press. Last year we attempted 1368 two point shots to 993 for the opposition and scored 1028 PIP to 753. We committed 546 fouls to 598 and went to the line 720 to 607 times, suggesting that there should be a relationship between two points attempts and points in the point and how many fouls are called on the other team and how many times you got to the line. This year we have taken 384 two point shots and scored 320 points in the paint. We’ve been fouled 159 times and taken 180 free throws. Our opposition has taken 307 two point shots and scored 198 points in the paint. They’ve been fouled 139 times and taken only 151free throws. That seems fairly balanced, overall.
“MY MAN”
A reporter once asked Casey Stengel how come he won so many games with the Yankees. He said “Because I never play a game without “my man”. The reporter wondered who his man was. Casey suggested “You could look it up.” The reporter did look it up and found that Yogi Berra had played in every game that season at some positon: catcher, left field, pinch-hitting, something. He was the player Stengel had the highest regard for and the most trust in, so he didn’t want to do without him. Who is Jim Boeheim’s “man” this season? The only way to tell is to see who plays the most minutes each game. In this game, Trevor Cooney and Kaleb Joseph, (despite all the criticism) played 40 minutes. Chris McCullough and Trevor Cooney have been the “Man” 4 times, Kaleb Joseph 3 times and Rakeem Christmas once. Cooney has re-taken the team lead in minutes played with 314, 12 more than any other player.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things players do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Tyler Roberson……. 24NP in 33 minutes season: 52NP in 128 minutes per 40: 16.3
Trevor Cooney…… 20NP in 40 minutes season: 79NP in 314 minutes per 40: 10.1
Rakeem Christmas 12NP in 25 minutes season: 168NP in 269 minutes per 40: 25.0
Chris McCullough.. 6NP in 26 minutes season: 138NP in 302 minutes per 40: 18.3
Michael Gbinije….. 5NP in 14 minutes season: 43NP in 210 minutes per 40: 8.2
Kaleb Joseph……….. 0NP in 40 minutes season: 64NP in 296 minutes per 40: 8.6
B. J. Johnson……….. -6NP in 22 minutes season: 50NP in 158 minutes per 40: 12.7
DNP-CD- none
Chinoso Obokoh….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 14NP in 30 minutes per 40: 18.7
Ron Patterson…….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 2NP in 83 minutes per 40: 1.0
INJURED
DaJuan Coleman…. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 0NP in 0 minutes per 40: 0.0
SUSPENDED
None
Comment: Tyler Roberson had 28NP in 95 minutes coming into this game and almost doubled that output in 33 minutes in this game. His NP per 40 rose from 11.8 to 16.3. Everybody talked about the lousy game Kaleb Joseph had: he did some good things, (9 points, 4 assists) and some bad things, (8 turnovers). BJ Johnson did some bad things, (0 for 7 , 4 turnovers), but not nearly enough good things to make up for it.
POSSESSION
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 20 offensive and 20 defensive rebounds. They had 11 offensive and 19 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 20 of 39 times, (51.3%). When they missed, they got the ball 11 of 31 times (35.5%). We’ve won the rebounding battle in every game by this measure in every game except Iowa. We’ve averaged getting 40% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 29% of theirs.
Of our 17 turnovers, 10 were their steals and 7 were our own miscues. Of their 17 turnovers, 10 were Syracuse steals and 7 were their fault. That’s right. For all the hand-wringing over our turnovers, both teams had the exact same numbers. We have had fewer turnovers in 5 of 9 games with 1 even. Last year we had fewer turnovers in 29 of 34 games with 2 even. We are averaging 13 turnovers, 7 unforced, (that’s right: our unforced turnovers for this game were ‘average’ for the way we’ve played this year). Our opposition is averaging 15/6.
If you add our 40 rebounds to their 17 turnovers, we had 57 “manufactured possessions”. They had 30 + 17= 47, so we were +10. We have won that battle it 7 of 9 times. For the season we’ve averaged 57 to 47 (+10), exactly what we had in this game.
SHOOTING
It’s still what the game is all about. It’s what this game was all about, for sure. We were 21 for 50, (.420) inside the arc, 5 for 12, (.417) outside it and 14 for 19 (.737) from the line. They were 19 for 36 (.528), 5/17 (.294) and 16/23 (.696). We’ve led in two point field goal percentage in 7 of 9 games and in free throw percentage in 7 of 9 games. We’ve led in three point field goals percentage, believe it or not, in 4 of 9 games, (our opposition isn’t exactly filling it up, either: even Michigan was 33.3% from the arc). For the season we are .518/.225/.663. Our opposition is .397/.316/.667.
We had 36 points in the paint, 19 off turnovers, 16 “second chance” points, 10 fast break points and 17 from the bench. Our opposition had 36 points in the paint, 19 off turnovers, 16 “second chance” points, 14 fast break points and 14 from the bench. We’ve led in PIP 6 times, POTO 6 times, SCP 6 times, FBP 5 times and BP 6 times, with one tie. For the season we are averaging 36-21 PIP, 17-12 POTO, 14-9 SCP, 10-8 FBP and 13-11 BP.
We had 71 points, 36 in the paint, 15 from the arc and 14 from the line so we had 21”POP”, (points outside the paint: 71-36-14) and scored 6 points, (21 POP-15 from the arc), from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 69/36/15/16= 17 POP and 2 from the Twilight Zone. We’ve only led in POP twice. For the year we are averaging 19 POP and 9 TZ, our opposition 25/6. The game is so much easier when you don’t have to go to the basket for all your points.
15 of our 26 baskets were assisted (.577) and 13 of their 24 (.542). For the year we are assisting on 61% of our baskets to 65% for the opposition, who have had a higher percentage in 6 of 9 games. Assists tend to come more often from jump shots than lay-ups or dunks so the more assists you get, the more you are settling for jump shots to try to win the game which is often a bad strategy.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 62 FGA - 20 OREBs + 17 TOs + (.475 x 19) = 68.025 possessions. They were 53 -11+ 17+ (.475 x 23) = 69.925 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 68 possessions in which we scored 71 points, (1.044) and 69 possessions in which they scored 69 points, (1.000). We have, of course, led 6 of 9 games in offensive efficiency since the winning team always leads in that stat. For the year we are averaging 1.018 points per possession to 0.858 for the opposition.
We had 137 combined possessions in this game. We’ve averaged 134 this year. We averaged 122 last year, so the pace appears to be better than it was last year.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog, and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game Trevor Cooney had 25 points plus 2 assists for 27 “hockey” points and are our co-ODOGs. Rakeem Christmas has been the O-Dog 4 times, Trevor Cooney twice, Michael Gbinije, BJ Johnson, Kaleb Joseph and Chris McCullough once each.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game 19-14, 13-17, 16-11, 23-27. For the season, we have an average of 15-11, 17-15, 17-15, 19-17. We’ve won 25 of 34 quarters. We’ve scored 15 or more in 23 quarters and held the opposition under that 20 times.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted Trevor Cooney Joseph opened the first half with a lay-up at 19:43 and Tyler Roberson did the same in the second half at 18:44. The average time we’ve had to wait is 1 minute 33 seconds. The longest we’ve waited this season is 2 minutes and 52 seconds in the first half vs. Loyola, (of course they would have waited for 11:30 in that game). Rakeem Christmas has sat us down 6 times, Chris McCullough and Kaleb Joseph 3 times, Trevor Cooney twice and Tyler Roberson once.
FOULS
My theory about fouls is that the team that attempts the most two point shots will tend to get fouled the most. If the numbers are as predicted or close, there’s nothing to be read into them but if there’s a big disparity, it makes you wonder about how the game was called. In this game, we attempted 50 two point shots to 36, scored 36 points in the paint to 36 and got fouled 18 times to 17, attempting 19 foul shots to 23. Louisiana Tech got to the line a bit more than we did, perhaps a product of their press. Last year we attempted 1368 two point shots to 993 for the opposition and scored 1028 PIP to 753. We committed 546 fouls to 598 and went to the line 720 to 607 times, suggesting that there should be a relationship between two points attempts and points in the point and how many fouls are called on the other team and how many times you got to the line. This year we have taken 384 two point shots and scored 320 points in the paint. We’ve been fouled 159 times and taken 180 free throws. Our opposition has taken 307 two point shots and scored 198 points in the paint. They’ve been fouled 139 times and taken only 151free throws. That seems fairly balanced, overall.
“MY MAN”
A reporter once asked Casey Stengel how come he won so many games with the Yankees. He said “Because I never play a game without “my man”. The reporter wondered who his man was. Casey suggested “You could look it up.” The reporter did look it up and found that Yogi Berra had played in every game that season at some positon: catcher, left field, pinch-hitting, something. He was the player Stengel had the highest regard for and the most trust in, so he didn’t want to do without him. Who is Jim Boeheim’s “man” this season? The only way to tell is to see who plays the most minutes each game. In this game, Trevor Cooney and Kaleb Joseph, (despite all the criticism) played 40 minutes. Chris McCullough and Trevor Cooney have been the “Man” 4 times, Kaleb Joseph 3 times and Rakeem Christmas once. Cooney has re-taken the team lead in minutes played with 314, 12 more than any other player.