SWC75
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I’ll continue doing a statistical analysis of games this year with some of the off-beat numbers I like to look at. I’ll post them after each game, probably the next day.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things player do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Tyler Ennis………….. 13NP in 32 minutes season: 45NP in 145 minutes per 40: 12.4
Trevor Cooney…… 13NP in 35 minutes season: 57NP in 141 minutes per 40: 16.2
DaJuan Coleman…. 12NP in 16 minutes season: 45NP in 79 minutes per 40: 22.8
C. J. Fair………………. 11NP in 38 minutes season: 59NP in 177 minutes per 40: 13.3
Rakeem Christmas 8NP in 22 minutes season: 39NP in 104 minutes per 40: 15.0
Jerami Grant……….. 7NP in 28 minutes season: 45NP in 108 minutes per 40: 16.6
Baye Moussa Keita 2NP in 15 minutes season: 23NP in 75 minutes per 40: 12.3
Michael Gbinije …. 0NP in 14 minutes season: 29NP in 85 minutes per 40: 13.6
Tyler Roberson……. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 8NP in 36 minutes per 40: 8.9
Ron Patterson…….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 4NP in 22 minutes per 40: 7.3
B. J. Johnson……….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: -1NP in 25 minutes per 40: -1.6
Comment: Other than DaJuan Coleman, the number are looking kind of mediocre. We have a lot of double-figure guys but nobody’s really ripping it up. Even with Coleman, JB doesn’t want him in there at the end of games. Of course, the strength of the opposition has a lot to do with that. But I don’t we really know how strong the opposition is yet. We just know that we’ve had more trouble beating them than we usually do.
Trevor Cooney and Tyler Ennis have each led the team in net points twice, (once a tie between them). DaJuan Coleman and. CJ Fair, have each led the team in net points once in games this year.
Possession:
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 14 offensive and 18 defensive rebounds. They had 12 offensive and 20 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 14 of 34 times, (41.2%). When they missed, they got the ball 12 of 30 times (40.0%). Syracuse has won all the rebounding battles this season, averaging 45.5% to 28.0%.
Of our 10 turnovers, 6 were their steals and 4 were our own miscues. (Those are very impressive numbers against a tight man for man defense). Of their 19 turnovers, 8 were Syracuse steals and 11 were their fault, (they had a lot of travels). Syracuse has had fewer turnovers in all games, (53-89) and are now ahead in unforced errors, (28-33).
If you add our 32 rebounds to their 19 turnovers, we had 51 “manufactured possessions”. They had 32 + 10 = 42, so we were +9. We’ve won that battle every time this season, with an average margin of +18.2. It’s the main reason we are 5-0. But what happens when we lose this battle?
Shooting:
It’s still what the game is all about. We were 19 for 43, (.442), inside the arc, 5 for 13, (.385), outside it and 22 for 27 (.815) from the line. They were 14/30, (.467), 9/22 (.409) and 12 for 13, (.923). Syracuse is hooting .461/.329/.655, the opposition .451/.377/.697. The differential in two point field goal percentage is very disturbing. Here are the percentages for every year of this decade: 2009-10: .571-.462 (+109), 2010-11: .562-.444 (+118), 2011-12: .519-.425 (+94), 2012-13: .485-.425 (+60). So far this year, (5 games but four games against opponents we should dominate inside): .461-.451 = +10.
We had 75 points, 30 in the paint, 15 from the arc and 22 from the line so we scored 8 points from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 67-24-27-12 =4 points in the Twilight Zone. Overall, we had 23 POP: Points Outside the Paint to 31 for them. So far this year Syracuse is averaging 23 POP, 8 from the TZ, the opposition 31/3.
11 of our 24 baskets were assists (.458) and 16 of their 23 (.696). For the year we are assisting on 47.6% of our baskets to 65.3% for the opposition.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 56 FGA -14 OREBS + 10 + (.475 x 27) = 64.825 possessions. They were 52 – 12 + 19 + (.475 x 13) = 65.175 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 65 possessions in which we scored 75 points, (1.154) and 65 possessions in which they scored 67 points, (1.031). For the year we are 1.142 vs. 0.920.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game: 14-17, 25-19, 21-16, 15-15. The average for the season is: 15-12, 21-16, 20-16, 18-14. We’ve won 12 quarters, lost 6 and tied 1. We’ve scored at least 15 in 17 of 20 quarters and held the opposition under that 11 times.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog. I decided to use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game, CJ Fair had 16 points and 1 assists, Trevor Cooney had 15 points and 2 assists and Tyler Ennis had 12 points and 5 assists for a total of 17 “points” to lead the team in this game. So far C.J. Fair’s done it 3 times, Trevor Cooney twice while Tyler Ennis and Jerami Grant have done it once each.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted that those alter in the game, (although sometimes we don’t score until later in the game. Trevor Cooney sat us down with early treys in each half, 18 seconds into the first and 10 seconds in to the second. It’s a great way to start. CJ Fair and Tyler Ennis have sat us down 3 times, Coleman and Ennis twice each.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things player do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Tyler Ennis………….. 13NP in 32 minutes season: 45NP in 145 minutes per 40: 12.4
Trevor Cooney…… 13NP in 35 minutes season: 57NP in 141 minutes per 40: 16.2
DaJuan Coleman…. 12NP in 16 minutes season: 45NP in 79 minutes per 40: 22.8
C. J. Fair………………. 11NP in 38 minutes season: 59NP in 177 minutes per 40: 13.3
Rakeem Christmas 8NP in 22 minutes season: 39NP in 104 minutes per 40: 15.0
Jerami Grant……….. 7NP in 28 minutes season: 45NP in 108 minutes per 40: 16.6
Baye Moussa Keita 2NP in 15 minutes season: 23NP in 75 minutes per 40: 12.3
Michael Gbinije …. 0NP in 14 minutes season: 29NP in 85 minutes per 40: 13.6
Tyler Roberson……. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 8NP in 36 minutes per 40: 8.9
Ron Patterson…….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 4NP in 22 minutes per 40: 7.3
B. J. Johnson……….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: -1NP in 25 minutes per 40: -1.6
Comment: Other than DaJuan Coleman, the number are looking kind of mediocre. We have a lot of double-figure guys but nobody’s really ripping it up. Even with Coleman, JB doesn’t want him in there at the end of games. Of course, the strength of the opposition has a lot to do with that. But I don’t we really know how strong the opposition is yet. We just know that we’ve had more trouble beating them than we usually do.
Trevor Cooney and Tyler Ennis have each led the team in net points twice, (once a tie between them). DaJuan Coleman and. CJ Fair, have each led the team in net points once in games this year.
Possession:
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 14 offensive and 18 defensive rebounds. They had 12 offensive and 20 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 14 of 34 times, (41.2%). When they missed, they got the ball 12 of 30 times (40.0%). Syracuse has won all the rebounding battles this season, averaging 45.5% to 28.0%.
Of our 10 turnovers, 6 were their steals and 4 were our own miscues. (Those are very impressive numbers against a tight man for man defense). Of their 19 turnovers, 8 were Syracuse steals and 11 were their fault, (they had a lot of travels). Syracuse has had fewer turnovers in all games, (53-89) and are now ahead in unforced errors, (28-33).
If you add our 32 rebounds to their 19 turnovers, we had 51 “manufactured possessions”. They had 32 + 10 = 42, so we were +9. We’ve won that battle every time this season, with an average margin of +18.2. It’s the main reason we are 5-0. But what happens when we lose this battle?
Shooting:
It’s still what the game is all about. We were 19 for 43, (.442), inside the arc, 5 for 13, (.385), outside it and 22 for 27 (.815) from the line. They were 14/30, (.467), 9/22 (.409) and 12 for 13, (.923). Syracuse is hooting .461/.329/.655, the opposition .451/.377/.697. The differential in two point field goal percentage is very disturbing. Here are the percentages for every year of this decade: 2009-10: .571-.462 (+109), 2010-11: .562-.444 (+118), 2011-12: .519-.425 (+94), 2012-13: .485-.425 (+60). So far this year, (5 games but four games against opponents we should dominate inside): .461-.451 = +10.
We had 75 points, 30 in the paint, 15 from the arc and 22 from the line so we scored 8 points from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 67-24-27-12 =4 points in the Twilight Zone. Overall, we had 23 POP: Points Outside the Paint to 31 for them. So far this year Syracuse is averaging 23 POP, 8 from the TZ, the opposition 31/3.
11 of our 24 baskets were assists (.458) and 16 of their 23 (.696). For the year we are assisting on 47.6% of our baskets to 65.3% for the opposition.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 56 FGA -14 OREBS + 10 + (.475 x 27) = 64.825 possessions. They were 52 – 12 + 19 + (.475 x 13) = 65.175 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 65 possessions in which we scored 75 points, (1.154) and 65 possessions in which they scored 67 points, (1.031). For the year we are 1.142 vs. 0.920.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game: 14-17, 25-19, 21-16, 15-15. The average for the season is: 15-12, 21-16, 20-16, 18-14. We’ve won 12 quarters, lost 6 and tied 1. We’ve scored at least 15 in 17 of 20 quarters and held the opposition under that 11 times.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog. I decided to use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game, CJ Fair had 16 points and 1 assists, Trevor Cooney had 15 points and 2 assists and Tyler Ennis had 12 points and 5 assists for a total of 17 “points” to lead the team in this game. So far C.J. Fair’s done it 3 times, Trevor Cooney twice while Tyler Ennis and Jerami Grant have done it once each.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted that those alter in the game, (although sometimes we don’t score until later in the game. Trevor Cooney sat us down with early treys in each half, 18 seconds into the first and 10 seconds in to the second. It’s a great way to start. CJ Fair and Tyler Ennis have sat us down 3 times, Coleman and Ennis twice each.