SWC75
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I’ll continue doing a statistical analysis of games this year with some of the off-beat numbers I like to look at. I’ll post them after each game, probably the next day.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things player do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Rakeem Christmas 26NP in 35 minutes season: 210NP in 573 minutes per 40: 14.7
Jerami Grant……….. 16NP in 35 minutes season: 307NP in 766 minutes per 40: 16.0
Trevor Cooney…… 5NP in 35 minutes season: 291NP in 797 minutes per 40: 14.6
C. J. Fair………………. 3NP in 40 minutes season: 296NP in 936 minutes per 40: 12.6
Michael Gbinije …. 2NP in 17 minutes season: 94NP in 327 minutes per 40: 11.5
Tyler Roberson……. 0NP in 2 minutes season: 19NP in 122 minutes per 40: 6.2
Tyler Ennis………….. -1NP in 36 minutes season: 321NP in 863 minutes per 40: 14.9
Ron Patterson…….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 12NP in 50 minutes per 40: 9.6
Baye Moussa Keita 0NP in 0 minutes season: 80NP in 363 minutes per 40: 8.8
B. J. Johnson……….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 1NP in 51 minutes per 40: 0.8
DaJuan Coleman…. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 61NP in 169 minutes per 40: 14.4
Comment: Let’s compare Tyler Ennis to his immediate predecessors:
Tyler Ennis this season so far
34.5m 13.6p 3.7r 6.5a 2.4s 0.1b =26.3+ 6.0mfg 1.3mft 1.8to 2.3pf = 11.4- = 14.9NP 6.3oe 8.6fg
Michael Carter-Williams in 2012-13
35.2m 13.4p 5.5r 8.3a 3.2s 0.5b = 30.9+ 6.8mfg 1.6mft 3.9to 2.6pf = 14.9- = 16.0np 5.0oe 11.0fg
Scoop Jardine in 2011-2012
25.2m 14.1p 3.7r 7.8a 2.1s 0.2b = 27.9+ 6.0mfg 1.3mft 3.6to 1.3pf = 12.2- = 15.7np 6.8oe 8.9fg
My recollection is that Scoop was criticized constantly and MCW frequently, at least until the NCAA run, (I have a friend who said we should never have bothered recruiting him). Tyler Ennis is already a “legend”. But is he really better than MCW and Scoop? The three were comparable scorers. MCW, the tallest, was the best rebounder. He also blocked some shots. Both he and Scoop had more assists. Tyler’s big thing is avoid turnovers and that is a big thing. Scoop committed the fewest fouls. Mike was the best at the top of the zone. We hardly ever fast break with Tyler and aren’t that good at it when we do. All three were great but none of them were perfect. Is Tyler really the best of them? Does he deserve the Teflon? Would we be 25-0 with the other guys at the point this year?
While you’re at it, imagine Mike and Tyler both being available to the team this year.
Tyler Ennis has led, (or tied for the lead), in net points 10 times. Trevor Cooney has led 5 times, CJ Fair and Rakeem Christmas 4 times each, Jerami Grant three times and DaJuan Coleman and now Baye Keita once each. Interesting that Christmas has led as many times as Fair and more than Grant.
Possession:
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 13 offensive and 25 defensive rebounds. They had 12 offensive and 25 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 13 of 38 times, (34.2%). When they missed, they got the ball 12 of 37 times (32.4%). We’ve averaged getting 39.6% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 32.4% of theirs. We have won the rebounding battle by this measure 17 times in 25 games. But through the Duke game, we’d gotten 40.7% of our misses and 69.3% of the other team’s misses. In the four games since it’s been 33.3% and 59.1%. That plus our shooting woes, (see below), suggest that this team is getting tired. Their legs are not what they were.
Of our 8 turnovers, 9 were their steals and 5 were our own miscues. Of their 10 turnovers, 5 were Syracuse steals and 5 were their fault. Syracuse has had fewer turnovers in 21 of 25 games, with two even. Overall we are ahead by 118 turnovers on the season, (229-347) and are also ahead in unforced errors, (122-139). We have had single digit turnovers in 10 of 12 ACC games and had only 10 in the other two. That’s very impressive for a team with a young backcourt.
If you add our 38 rebounds to their 10 turnovers, we had 48 “manufactured possessions”. They had 37 + 9 = 46, so we were +2. We’ve won that battle 21 times this season in 25 games, with an average margin of +9.0. We’ve won by double figures 13 times. It’s the main reason we are 25-0. But we are slipping in this stat, too. We were +11.1 per game after the Wake Forest game are a net +3 since then. It’s an advantage that has disappeared and ti’s why we are struggling so much right now.
Shooting:
It’s still what the game is all about. We were 17 for 42, (.405) inside the arc, 2 for 12, (.167) outside it and 16 for 22 (.727) from the line. They were 18 for 42 (.429), 4/14 (.286) and 7/14 (.500). On the season, Syracuse is shooting .491/.357/.705, the opposition .450/.333/.659. We complain about our free throw shooting but we are now out-shooting the opposition on the year by 46 points. Here are our two point percentages for every year of this decade: 2009-10: .571-.462 (+109), 2010-11: .562-.444 (+118), 2011-12: .519-.425 (+94), 2012-13: .485-.425 (+60). So far this year: .491-.450 = +41. In the last for games we are shooting .423 inside the arc, which is terrible. Prior to that we were .502, much better but still not what we were getting in 2010-12. Ironically our slump is occurring while Rakeem Christmas is playing so much better and Jerami Grant in the starting line-up instead of coming off the bench. You would think that would make us better inside than previously.
We had 56 points, 30 in the paint, 6 from the arc and 16 from the line so we scored 4 points from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 55-30-12-7= 6 points in the Twilight Zone. Overall, we had 10 POP: Points Outside the Paint to 18 for them. The barn has no dents in it. So far this year Syracuse is averaging 23 POP, 8 from the TZ, the opposition 26/5.
9 of our 19 baskets were assisted (.474) and 12 of their 22 (.545). For the year we are assisting on 51.8% of our baskets to 64.1% for the opposition, who have had more assists or a higher percentage in 21 of 25 games, all of which we’ve won. Assists tend to come more often from jump shots than lay-ups or dunks so the more assists you get, the more you are settling for jumps shots to try to win the game which is often a bad strategy.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 54 FGA - 13 OREBs + 9 TOs + (.475 x 22) = 60.45 possessions. They were 56 -12 + 10 + (.475 x 14) = 60.65 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 60 possessions in which we scored 56 points, (0.933) and 61 possessions in which they scored 55 points, (0.902). For the year we are 1.154 vs. 0.959. We’ve been more efficient than our opposition in every game so far, which is also why we are 25-0. But, again in the last four games we are averaging 1.074 points per possession, compared to 1.167 in the 21 games before that.
We’ve averaged 122 combined possessions per game this year. In this game, there were exactly that many. NC State had the reputation of a running team but they did the same thing everybody else did: hold the blal and try to set up the best shot they could get on every possession. As a result the game wasn’t the “run and shoot” fest we were waiting for. It was grinder just like all of our other games, (except Duke).
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game: 13-15, 13-11, 12-13, 18-16. The average for the season is: 16-13, 18-15, 16-15, 19-15. We’ve won 64 quarters, (and one overtime), lost 29 and tied 7. We’ve scored at least 15 in 69 of 100 quarters and held the opposition under that 54 times. Our 25-0 record has more to do with exceptional and consistent defense than offense. But then, anybody’s 25-0 record probably would.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog, and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game Rakeem Christmas had 14 points and 1 assist for 15 “hockey points”. So far Tyler Ennis has led 11 times and CJ Fair has done it 9 times, Trevor Cooney 5 times, Jerami Grant has done it twice and Rakeem Christmas once, including ties. Love Rak but if he’s your O-Dog, ya got problems.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted than those later in the game, (although sometimes we don’t score until later in this game Trevor Cooney sat us down in the first half with a trey 22 seconds in, (he- and we- made just one more in the last 39:38). CJ Fair sat us down in the second half with a jump shot at 1:25, (the only jumper he made). CJ Fair has now sat us down 15 times, Tyler Ennis 9 times, Trevor Cooney 8 times, Rakeem Christmas 8 times and DaJuan Coleman 5 times and Jerami Grant 4 times, (remember he didn’t start until Coleman got hurt).
Longest: 8:50, second half vs. Miami. We were 4:51 vs. St. Francis, (second half), 3:12 vs. Villanova (first half), 2:44 vs. Pittsburgh II (second half) 2:37 vs. Notre Dame (first half), 2:29 vs. Eastern Michigan (second half), 2:13 vs. Pittsburgh (first half), 2:05 vs. North Carolina (second half), 1:45 vs. Boston College (first half), 1:38 vs. Pittsburgh (second half), 1:26 vs. Duke (first half), 1:25 vs. Wake Forest, (1st half) and NC State (second Half), 1:21 vs. Duke (second half) 1:18 vs. North Carolina (first half) and Pittsburgh II (first half)and 1:16 vs. Clemson (first half)
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things player do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Rakeem Christmas 26NP in 35 minutes season: 210NP in 573 minutes per 40: 14.7
Jerami Grant……….. 16NP in 35 minutes season: 307NP in 766 minutes per 40: 16.0
Trevor Cooney…… 5NP in 35 minutes season: 291NP in 797 minutes per 40: 14.6
C. J. Fair………………. 3NP in 40 minutes season: 296NP in 936 minutes per 40: 12.6
Michael Gbinije …. 2NP in 17 minutes season: 94NP in 327 minutes per 40: 11.5
Tyler Roberson……. 0NP in 2 minutes season: 19NP in 122 minutes per 40: 6.2
Tyler Ennis………….. -1NP in 36 minutes season: 321NP in 863 minutes per 40: 14.9
Ron Patterson…….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 12NP in 50 minutes per 40: 9.6
Baye Moussa Keita 0NP in 0 minutes season: 80NP in 363 minutes per 40: 8.8
B. J. Johnson……….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 1NP in 51 minutes per 40: 0.8
DaJuan Coleman…. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 61NP in 169 minutes per 40: 14.4
Comment: Let’s compare Tyler Ennis to his immediate predecessors:
Tyler Ennis this season so far
34.5m 13.6p 3.7r 6.5a 2.4s 0.1b =26.3+ 6.0mfg 1.3mft 1.8to 2.3pf = 11.4- = 14.9NP 6.3oe 8.6fg
Michael Carter-Williams in 2012-13
35.2m 13.4p 5.5r 8.3a 3.2s 0.5b = 30.9+ 6.8mfg 1.6mft 3.9to 2.6pf = 14.9- = 16.0np 5.0oe 11.0fg
Scoop Jardine in 2011-2012
25.2m 14.1p 3.7r 7.8a 2.1s 0.2b = 27.9+ 6.0mfg 1.3mft 3.6to 1.3pf = 12.2- = 15.7np 6.8oe 8.9fg
My recollection is that Scoop was criticized constantly and MCW frequently, at least until the NCAA run, (I have a friend who said we should never have bothered recruiting him). Tyler Ennis is already a “legend”. But is he really better than MCW and Scoop? The three were comparable scorers. MCW, the tallest, was the best rebounder. He also blocked some shots. Both he and Scoop had more assists. Tyler’s big thing is avoid turnovers and that is a big thing. Scoop committed the fewest fouls. Mike was the best at the top of the zone. We hardly ever fast break with Tyler and aren’t that good at it when we do. All three were great but none of them were perfect. Is Tyler really the best of them? Does he deserve the Teflon? Would we be 25-0 with the other guys at the point this year?
While you’re at it, imagine Mike and Tyler both being available to the team this year.
Tyler Ennis has led, (or tied for the lead), in net points 10 times. Trevor Cooney has led 5 times, CJ Fair and Rakeem Christmas 4 times each, Jerami Grant three times and DaJuan Coleman and now Baye Keita once each. Interesting that Christmas has led as many times as Fair and more than Grant.
Possession:
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 13 offensive and 25 defensive rebounds. They had 12 offensive and 25 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 13 of 38 times, (34.2%). When they missed, they got the ball 12 of 37 times (32.4%). We’ve averaged getting 39.6% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 32.4% of theirs. We have won the rebounding battle by this measure 17 times in 25 games. But through the Duke game, we’d gotten 40.7% of our misses and 69.3% of the other team’s misses. In the four games since it’s been 33.3% and 59.1%. That plus our shooting woes, (see below), suggest that this team is getting tired. Their legs are not what they were.
Of our 8 turnovers, 9 were their steals and 5 were our own miscues. Of their 10 turnovers, 5 were Syracuse steals and 5 were their fault. Syracuse has had fewer turnovers in 21 of 25 games, with two even. Overall we are ahead by 118 turnovers on the season, (229-347) and are also ahead in unforced errors, (122-139). We have had single digit turnovers in 10 of 12 ACC games and had only 10 in the other two. That’s very impressive for a team with a young backcourt.
If you add our 38 rebounds to their 10 turnovers, we had 48 “manufactured possessions”. They had 37 + 9 = 46, so we were +2. We’ve won that battle 21 times this season in 25 games, with an average margin of +9.0. We’ve won by double figures 13 times. It’s the main reason we are 25-0. But we are slipping in this stat, too. We were +11.1 per game after the Wake Forest game are a net +3 since then. It’s an advantage that has disappeared and ti’s why we are struggling so much right now.
Shooting:
It’s still what the game is all about. We were 17 for 42, (.405) inside the arc, 2 for 12, (.167) outside it and 16 for 22 (.727) from the line. They were 18 for 42 (.429), 4/14 (.286) and 7/14 (.500). On the season, Syracuse is shooting .491/.357/.705, the opposition .450/.333/.659. We complain about our free throw shooting but we are now out-shooting the opposition on the year by 46 points. Here are our two point percentages for every year of this decade: 2009-10: .571-.462 (+109), 2010-11: .562-.444 (+118), 2011-12: .519-.425 (+94), 2012-13: .485-.425 (+60). So far this year: .491-.450 = +41. In the last for games we are shooting .423 inside the arc, which is terrible. Prior to that we were .502, much better but still not what we were getting in 2010-12. Ironically our slump is occurring while Rakeem Christmas is playing so much better and Jerami Grant in the starting line-up instead of coming off the bench. You would think that would make us better inside than previously.
We had 56 points, 30 in the paint, 6 from the arc and 16 from the line so we scored 4 points from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 55-30-12-7= 6 points in the Twilight Zone. Overall, we had 10 POP: Points Outside the Paint to 18 for them. The barn has no dents in it. So far this year Syracuse is averaging 23 POP, 8 from the TZ, the opposition 26/5.
9 of our 19 baskets were assisted (.474) and 12 of their 22 (.545). For the year we are assisting on 51.8% of our baskets to 64.1% for the opposition, who have had more assists or a higher percentage in 21 of 25 games, all of which we’ve won. Assists tend to come more often from jump shots than lay-ups or dunks so the more assists you get, the more you are settling for jumps shots to try to win the game which is often a bad strategy.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 54 FGA - 13 OREBs + 9 TOs + (.475 x 22) = 60.45 possessions. They were 56 -12 + 10 + (.475 x 14) = 60.65 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 60 possessions in which we scored 56 points, (0.933) and 61 possessions in which they scored 55 points, (0.902). For the year we are 1.154 vs. 0.959. We’ve been more efficient than our opposition in every game so far, which is also why we are 25-0. But, again in the last four games we are averaging 1.074 points per possession, compared to 1.167 in the 21 games before that.
We’ve averaged 122 combined possessions per game this year. In this game, there were exactly that many. NC State had the reputation of a running team but they did the same thing everybody else did: hold the blal and try to set up the best shot they could get on every possession. As a result the game wasn’t the “run and shoot” fest we were waiting for. It was grinder just like all of our other games, (except Duke).
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game: 13-15, 13-11, 12-13, 18-16. The average for the season is: 16-13, 18-15, 16-15, 19-15. We’ve won 64 quarters, (and one overtime), lost 29 and tied 7. We’ve scored at least 15 in 69 of 100 quarters and held the opposition under that 54 times. Our 25-0 record has more to do with exceptional and consistent defense than offense. But then, anybody’s 25-0 record probably would.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog, and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game Rakeem Christmas had 14 points and 1 assist for 15 “hockey points”. So far Tyler Ennis has led 11 times and CJ Fair has done it 9 times, Trevor Cooney 5 times, Jerami Grant has done it twice and Rakeem Christmas once, including ties. Love Rak but if he’s your O-Dog, ya got problems.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted than those later in the game, (although sometimes we don’t score until later in this game Trevor Cooney sat us down in the first half with a trey 22 seconds in, (he- and we- made just one more in the last 39:38). CJ Fair sat us down in the second half with a jump shot at 1:25, (the only jumper he made). CJ Fair has now sat us down 15 times, Tyler Ennis 9 times, Trevor Cooney 8 times, Rakeem Christmas 8 times and DaJuan Coleman 5 times and Jerami Grant 4 times, (remember he didn’t start until Coleman got hurt).
Longest: 8:50, second half vs. Miami. We were 4:51 vs. St. Francis, (second half), 3:12 vs. Villanova (first half), 2:44 vs. Pittsburgh II (second half) 2:37 vs. Notre Dame (first half), 2:29 vs. Eastern Michigan (second half), 2:13 vs. Pittsburgh (first half), 2:05 vs. North Carolina (second half), 1:45 vs. Boston College (first half), 1:38 vs. Pittsburgh (second half), 1:26 vs. Duke (first half), 1:25 vs. Wake Forest, (1st half) and NC State (second Half), 1:21 vs. Duke (second half) 1:18 vs. North Carolina (first half) and Pittsburgh II (first half)and 1:16 vs. Clemson (first half)
