Net Points, etc. - North Carolina | Syracusefan.com

Net Points, etc. - North Carolina

SWC75

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I’ll continue doing a statistical analysis of games this year with some of the off-beat numbers I like to look at. I’ll post them after each game, probably the next day.

The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.

Of course, there are things players do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.

Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):

Rakeem Christmas 29NP in 40 minutes season: 419NP in 695 minutes per 40: 24.1
Tyler Roberson……. 13NP in 35 minutes season: 182NP in 491 minutes per 40: 14.8
Trevor Cooney…… 11NP in 40 minutes season: 206NP in 784 minutes per 40: 10.5
Michael Gbinije….. 11NP in 38 minutes season: 199NP in 662 minutes per 40: 12.0
B. J. Johnson……….. -1NP in 5 minutes season: 54NP in 210 minutes per 40: 10.3
Kaleb Joseph……….. -1NP in 24 minutes season: 126NP in 631 minutes per 40: 8.0
Ron Patterson…….. -8NP in 18 minutes season: 15NP in 251 minutes per 40: 2.4

DNP-CD- none
Chinoso Obokoh….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 16NP in 59 minutes per 40: 10.8

INJURED
DaJuan Coleman…. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 0NP in 0 minutes per 40: 0.0
Chris McCullough.. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 171NP in 450 minutes per 40: 15.2

SUSPENDED
None

Comment: I’ve always felt that if we have 1-2 players playing well against a quality team, we’ll likely lose. If we have 3-4 guys playing well, we’ll probably win. But even four guys need some help. Christmas, Cooney, Gbinije and Roberson scored 79 points. But they got no real help at all Their teammates scored 4 points. Ron Patterson’s numbers just get worse and worse. He does make contributions to the team in defense and ball handling but they don’t show up in the box score.

Rakeem Christmas has led in net points 11 times, Chris McCullough 4 times, Mike Gbinije and Tyler Roberson 3 times, Trevor Cooney and BJ Johnson once.

POSSESSION

Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 10 offensive and 17 defensive rebounds. They had 11 offensive and 31 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 18 of 31 times, (36.7%). When they missed, they got the ball 11 of 28 times (39.3). We’ve won the rebounding battle by this measure 14 times in 20 games. For the year we’ve averaged getting 35.3% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 30.8% of theirs.

Effective offensive rebounding: Neither team did much offensive rebounding or did much with the ball once they got it. We got 13 second chance points off our 10 offensive rebounds, 1.30 points per rebound. They got 16 for their 10, 1.45. For the year we’ve averaged 1.02 points per offensive rebound: they’ve averaged 0.88. We’ve led in this stat 12 times in 20 games. In our ACC wins, the opposition has 41 second chance points from 61 offensive rebounds, (0.67). In our ACC losses they’ve gotten 50 second chance points from 31 offensive rebounds (1.61). We’ve been about the same: 56/60 (0.93) in wins and 32/32 (1.00) in losses.

Of our 11 turnovers, 7 were their steals and 4 were our own miscues. Of their 20 turnovers, 10 were Syracuse steals and 10 were their fault. We’ve had fewer turnovers in 15 of 21 games with one even and fewer unforced turnovers in 10 games with 4 even. Last year we had fewer turnovers in 29 of 34 games with 2 even. We are averaging 12 turnovers, 6 unforced, Our opposition is averaging 14/6.

If you add our 27 rebounds to their 20 turnovers, we had 47 “manufactured possessions”. They had 42 + 11= 53, so we were -6. We have won that battle 15 of 21 times with one even. For the season we’ve averaged 52 to 47 (+5).

SHOOTING

It’s still what the game is all about. It’s what this game was all about, for sure. We were 22 for 44, (.500) inside the arc, 7 for 24, (.292) outside it and 18 for 23, (.783) from the line. They were 22 for 40 (.550), 9/16 (.563) and 22/30 (.733). We’ve led in two point field goal percentage in 12 of 21 games, (but have lost this stat in 5 of 6 games), and in free throw percentage in 10 games (but only 4 times in the last 14). We’ve led in three point field goals percentage, believe it or not, in 13 games, (our opposition hasn’t been exactly filling it up, either- until now). For the season we are .482/.316/.657. Our opposition is .439/.306/.696.

We had 24 points in the paint, 21 off turnovers, 13 “second chance” points, 7 fast break points and 0 from the bench. Our opposition had 36 points in the paint, 5 off turnovers, 16 “second chance” points, 5 fast break points and 25 from the bench. We also had 52 of Pat’s “first chance points” (Total points minus second chance points, fast break points and made free throws) to 55, meaning that those second chance points killed us. .

We’ve led in PIP 13 times, POTO 14 times, FCP 13 times SCP 12 times, FBP 12 times with 3 ties and BP 9 times, with a tie. For the season we are averaging 32-23 PIP, 16-11 POTO, 33-30 FCP, 12-11 SCP,9-6 FBP and 10-14 BP. We have 18 bench points in the last 7 games.

We had 83 points, 24 in the paint, 21 from the arc and 18from the line so we had 41 ”POP”, (points outside the paint: 83-24-18) and scored 20 points, (41 POP-21 from the arc), from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 93/36/27/22= 35 POP with 8 from the Twilight Zone. That’s right, for all the threes Carolina hit we actually scored more points outside the paint than the Tar Heels. We used the Twilight Zone to do it, scoring more points form there than we have in any game this season. We’ve only led in POP 9 times but we’ve led in TZ points 14 times in 21 games. For the year we are averaging 24 POP and 9 TZ, our opposition 26/7. The game is so much easier when you don’t have to go to the basket for all your points.

17 of our 29 baskets were assisted (.586) and also 22 of their 31 (.710). For the year we are assisting on 63.6% of our baskets to 65.0% for the opposition, who have had a higher percentage in 8 of 20 games, with one tie. Assists tend to come more often from jump shots than lay-ups or dunks so the more assists you get, the more you are settling for jump shots to try to win the game which is often a bad strategy. I think it’s interesting that we have a high assist percentage with our “point guard by committee” situation. The team is at least sharing the ball well.

You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 68 FGA - 10 OREBs + 11TOs + (.475 x 23) = 79.925 possessions. They were 56 -11+ 20+ (.475 x 30) = 79.25 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 80 possessions in which we scored 83 points, (1.038) and 79 possessions in which they scored 93 points, (1.177). We have, of course, led 14 of 21 games in offensive efficiency since the winning team always leads in that stat. For the year we are averaging 1.022 points per possession to 0.911 for the opposition.

We were actually more efficient against Virginia Tech, Florida State, Wake Forest and Boston College. The 83 points we scored were about pace. We had 159 combined possessions in this game, more than any other game this except Villanova, which had 161 in overtime: this was the fastest paced game of the year. We’ve averaged 133 possesions this year. We averaged 122 last year, so the pace appears to be better than it was last season.

Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog, and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game Trevor Cooney was scored 28 points with 1 assists for 29 “hockey” points and thus was our ODOG. Rakeem Christmas has been the O-Dog 9 times, Trevor Cooney 6 times, Michael Gbinije 4 times, BJ Johnson, Kaleb Joseph and Chris McCullough once each.

Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game 16-16, 24-19, 18-23, 25-35. For the season we have an average of 16-13, 17-14, 16-16, 19-18. We’ve won 50 of 84 quarters with 3 even. We’ve scored 15 or more in 53 quarters and held the opposition under that 43 times.

I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted. Rakeem Christmas start us down in the first half with a jumper at 18:06 while Michael Gbinije did the same at 19:07 of the second half. The longest we’d had to wait this year (5:02) was the first half against Miami. The average time we’ve had to wait is 1 minute 27 seconds. Rakeem Christmas has sat us down 14 times, Trevor Cooney and Michael Gbinije 7 times, Kaleb Joseph and Chris McCullough 5 times and Tyler Roberson 4 times.

Another fun fact is the “Taco Bell MVP”: the guy who gets us to 75 points so people can free, (or is it discounted?) tacos at Taco Bell. Michael Gbinije made a lay-up with 1:25 left to get us to 75 points. We’d been waiting for Mike made a free throw at 2:01 (36 seconds). Michael has now got us TACOs, (figuratively) twice. Rakeem Christmas, Trevor Cooney, BJ Johnson and Ron Patterson have each got us Tacos once. (I wonder how many point we have to score to get real meat in the tacos?) The longest we’ve had to wait after getting close to 75 points is 3:31.

FOULS

My theory about fouls is that the team that attempts the most two point shots will tend to get fouled the most. If the numbers are as predicted or close, there’s nothing to be read into them but if there’s a big disparity, it makes you wonder about how the game was called.

In this game, we attempted 44 two point shots to 44, scored 24 points in the paint to 36 and got fouled 19 times to 25, attempting 23 foul shots to 30. The ratio of two point attempts to times fouled was 2.3 for us and 1.8 for them. The ratio of points in the paint to times fouled was 1.3 for us to 1.5 for them. The ratio of free throw attempts to fouls called on the other team was 1.2 for us and 1.1 for them. We got called for fouls a bit more than the Heels did. It shows up in the first stat but not the others.

Last year we attempted 1368 two point shots to 993 for the opposition and scored 1028 PIP to 753. We committed 546 fouls to 598 and went to the line 720 to 607 times, suggesting that there should be a relationship between two points attempts and points in the point and how many fouls are called on the other team and how many times you got to the line. The ratio of two point attempts to times fouled was 2.3 for us and 1.8 for them. The ratio of points in the paint to times fouled was 1.7 for us to 1.4 for them. The ratio of free throw attempts to fouls called on the other team was 1.2 for us and 1.1 for them.

This year we have taken 888 two point shots and scored 666 points in the paint. We’ve been fouled 373 times and taken 427 free throws. Our opposition has taken 719 two point shots and scored 496 points in the paint. They’ve been fouled 322 times and taken only 362 free throws. The ratio of two point attempts to times fouled has been 2.4 for us and 2.2 for them. The ratio of points in the paint to times fouled has been 1.7 for us to 1.5 for them. The ratio of free throw attempts to fouls called on the other team has been 1.1 for us and 1.1 for them. So the officiating overall has been pretty even-handed.

“MY MAN”

A reporter once asked Casey Stengel how come he won so many games with the Yankees. He said “Because I never play a game without “my man”. The reporter wondered who his man was. Casey suggested “You could look it up.” The reporter did look it up and found that Yogi Berra had played in every game that season at some positon: catcher, left field, pinch-hitting, something. He was the player Stengel had the highest regard for and the most trust in, so he didn’t want to do without him.

Who is Jim Boeheim’s “man” this season? The only way to tell is to see who plays the most minutes each game. In this game, Rakeem Christmas, Trevor Cooney both played all 40 minutes. We’ve had at least one player play the full game in each of the last 10 games and a a total of 18 players have done so in that span. Trevor Cooney has been the “Man” 13 times, Michael Gbinije and Rakeem Christmas 6 times, Chris McCullough and Kaleb Joseph 4 times each and Tyler Roberson once. . Cooney still leads the team in minutes played with 784, 89 more than any other player. Encouragingly, the guy in second place is Rakeem Christmas, who earlier had a problem staying in games because of excessive fouling.
 
Cooney and BJ are tied in leading the team in net points? Now that's an interesting stat I wouldn't expect to see!

Way to go, BJ!
 
Cooney and BJ are tied in leading the team in net points? Now that's an interesting stat I wouldn't expect to see!

Way to go, BJ!

Net Points Leaders:

Kennesaw State BJ Johnson 27

Hampton Rakeem Christmas 22

California Chris McCullough 15

Iowa Chris McCullough 23

Loyola (MD) Chris McCullough 22

Holy Cross Rakeem Christmas 31

Michigan Chris McCullough 17

St. John’s Rakeem Christmas 29

Louisiana Tech Tyler Robertson 24

Villanova Michael Gbinije 18

Colgate Rakeem Christmas 23

Long Beach State Rakeem Christmas 32

Cornell Rakeem Christmas 19

Virginia Tech Rakeem Christmas and Tyler Roberson 21

Georgia Tech Rakeem Christmas and Michael Gbinije 17

Florida State Trevor Cooney 23

Wake Forest Rakeem Christmas 31

Clemson Rakeem Christmas 23

Boston College Michael Gbinije 18

Miami Tyler Roberson 25

North Carolina Rakeem Christmas 29
 

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