SWC75
Bored Historian
- Joined
- Aug 26, 2011
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This is our record when winning each stat and when losing each stat, with a winning percentage and the difference in winning percentages.
Offensive Possession Efficiency 18-0 0-10 1.000 – 0.000 = +1.000
Starters 18-2 0-8 0.900 – 0.000 = +0.900
Team Shooting Efficiency 16-1 2-9 0.941 – 0.182 = +0.759
Points scored/potential points 17-3 1-7 0.850 – 0.125 = +0.725
“Hustle” Stats 15-1 3-8 0.9375 – 0.273 = +0.6645
Fast Break Points 13-0 5-8 1.000 – 0.385 = +0.615
Fast Break Percentage 11-0 7-10 1.000 – 0.412 = +0.588
Rebounding 11-0 7-10 1.000 – 0.412 = +0.588
Two-pointers 14-3 4-7 0.824 – 0.364 = +0.460
Adjusted Possession Efficiency 12-2 6-8 0.857 – 0.429 = +0.428
Manufactured Possessions 13-3 5-7 0.8125 – 0.417 = +0.3955
PIP “The Inner Sanctum” 11-2 6-7 0.846 – 0.462 = +0.384
Three-pointers 14-4 4-6 0.778 – 0.400 = +0.378
Combined Percentages 12-3 6-7 0.800 - 0.462 = +0.338
Points outside the paint (POP) 11-3 7-7 0.786 – 0.500 = +0.286
Points off turnovers 13-5 4-5 0.722 – 0.444 = +0.278
First Chance Points 10-3 7-7 0.769 – 0.500 = +0.269
Trey “The Outer Limits” 10-3 7-7 0.769 – 0.500 = +0.269
Assist Percentage 5-1 13-9 0.833 – 0.591 = +0.242
Unsettled Situations 10-3 8-7 0.769 – 0.533 = +0.236
Second Chance Points 11-4 7-6 0.733 – 0.538 = +0.195
Effective Offensive Rebounding 9-3 9-7 0.750 – 0.5625 = +0.1875
Points per Takeover 10-4 8-6 0.714 – 0.571 = +0.143
Free-Throws 13-6 5-4 0.684 – 0.556 = +0.128
“The Twilight Zone” 10-5 7-4 0.667 – 0.636 = +0.031
Bench Scoring 5-3 12-7 0.625 – 0.632 = -0.007
Unforced Turnovers 9-6 7-4 0.600 – 0.636 = -0.036
Fouls 7-5 11-5 0.583 – 0.6875 = -0.1045
FIVE YEAR TOTALS (I didn’t keep track of each things all five years)
Offensive Possession Efficiency 97-1 1-66 0.990 – 0.015 = +0.975
Shooting Efficiency 54-3 2-35 0.947 – 0.054 = +0.893
Starters 90-17 3-48 0.841 – 0.059 = +0.782
“Hustle” Stats 48-4 8-33 0.923 – 0.195 = +0.728
Combined Percentages 46-4 10-34 0.920 – 0.227 = +0.693
Points scored/potential points 70-11 9-39 0.864 – 0.1875 = +0.6765
Adjusted Possession Efficiency 47-6 9-32 0.887 – 0.220 = +0.667
Points outside the paint (POP) 69-12 22-53 0.852 – 0.293 = +0.559
Two-pointers 68-16 22-50 0.810 – 0.306 = +0.504
Manufactured Possessions 71-17 21-48 0.807 – 0.304 = +0.503
Fast Break Points 67-14 23-44 0.827 – 0.343 = +0.484
Three-pointers 71-14 28-48 0.835 – 0.368 = +0.467
PIP “The Inner Sanctum” 63-19 24-44 0.768 – 0.353 = +0.425
Rebounding 51-11 43-57 0.823 – 0.430 = +0.393
Assist Percentage 44-9 48-55 0.830 – 0.466 = +0.364
Points off turnovers 65-25 24-42 0.722 – 0.364 = +0.358
Unsettled Situations 75-32 19-36 0.701 – 0.345 = +0.356
Trey “The Outer Limits” 32-9 22-28 0.780 – 0.440 = +0.340
First Chance Points 63-24 29-44 0.724 – 0.397 = +0.327
Points per Takeover 61-24 30-43 0.718 – 0.411 = +0.307
Fast Break Percentage 39-14 17-22 0.736 – 0.436 = +0.300
Fouls 57-24 37-44 0.704 – 0.457 = +0.247
Effective Offensive Rebounding 64-31 29-37 0.674 – 0.439 = +0.235
“The Twilight Zone” 64-28 24-26 0.696 - .0480 = +0.216
Free-Throws 59-36 30-32 0.621 – 0.484 = +0.137
Bench Scoring 35-20 55-45 0.636 – 0.550 = +0.086
Second Chance Points 47-34 41-34 0.580 – 0.547 = +0.033
Unforced Turnovers 39-28 43-30 0.582 – 0.589 = -0.007
Offensive possession efficiency (points divided by possessions with offensive rebounds and turnovers considered the same possession) will always be the stat that most directly relates to victory because possessions will be one apart: they alternate after the opening tip. I’ve had two occasions where the losing team won this stat in one point games due to rounding but that’s the only diversion from the norm. Adjusted possession efficiency removes offensive rebounds and turnovers from the formula, which means those things wind up be counted as separate possessions, which means that possessions can be more than one apart. It’s actually the more interesting stat, although you can grade the pace of a game with the original formula. North Carolina II was a 144-possession game. Clemson II was a 118-possession game. Fortunately we played well enough to win at both speeds.
Starter points are going to be more important than bench points if you have a short rotation. If send waves of players at the other team, like Florida State, bench points are going to be more important.
Seven of the top ten stats are about putting the ball in the basket. JB mentions it as a big factor a lot and people groan. It was Naismith’s first idea and his best one.
If you can’t out-shoot the opposition, you’ve got to do a better job of getting the ball. But that is better measured by stats that include takeovers, such as “Hustle Stats” and “Manufactured Possessions”, as opposed to simply looking at rebounding. And I was amazed at how irrelevant second chance points were. I think it can be an import stat in certain games but it gets skewed by games where the other team gets a lot of offensive rebounds because they are missing a lot of shots.
I thought ‘First Chance Points’, (against a set defense) and ‘Unsettled Situations’ (after a turnover or offensive rebound) would be more significant. I think the “Twilight Zone”, (jumpers between the paint and the arc), would matter more if teams would use it more. But the focus is on PIP and treys, (and so is the defense).
Free throws can matter a lot in certain games but it’s not a big stat looking at the whole season.
The worst stat is “Unforced Turnovers”, which is turnovers minus the other team’s steals. I thought this would be a measure of sloppiness but it’s just a sloppy stat that doesn’t have much impact. It’s my leading candidate to be dropped next year.
Offensive Possession Efficiency 18-0 0-10 1.000 – 0.000 = +1.000
Starters 18-2 0-8 0.900 – 0.000 = +0.900
Team Shooting Efficiency 16-1 2-9 0.941 – 0.182 = +0.759
Points scored/potential points 17-3 1-7 0.850 – 0.125 = +0.725
“Hustle” Stats 15-1 3-8 0.9375 – 0.273 = +0.6645
Fast Break Points 13-0 5-8 1.000 – 0.385 = +0.615
Fast Break Percentage 11-0 7-10 1.000 – 0.412 = +0.588
Rebounding 11-0 7-10 1.000 – 0.412 = +0.588
Two-pointers 14-3 4-7 0.824 – 0.364 = +0.460
Adjusted Possession Efficiency 12-2 6-8 0.857 – 0.429 = +0.428
Manufactured Possessions 13-3 5-7 0.8125 – 0.417 = +0.3955
PIP “The Inner Sanctum” 11-2 6-7 0.846 – 0.462 = +0.384
Three-pointers 14-4 4-6 0.778 – 0.400 = +0.378
Combined Percentages 12-3 6-7 0.800 - 0.462 = +0.338
Points outside the paint (POP) 11-3 7-7 0.786 – 0.500 = +0.286
Points off turnovers 13-5 4-5 0.722 – 0.444 = +0.278
First Chance Points 10-3 7-7 0.769 – 0.500 = +0.269
Trey “The Outer Limits” 10-3 7-7 0.769 – 0.500 = +0.269
Assist Percentage 5-1 13-9 0.833 – 0.591 = +0.242
Unsettled Situations 10-3 8-7 0.769 – 0.533 = +0.236
Second Chance Points 11-4 7-6 0.733 – 0.538 = +0.195
Effective Offensive Rebounding 9-3 9-7 0.750 – 0.5625 = +0.1875
Points per Takeover 10-4 8-6 0.714 – 0.571 = +0.143
Free-Throws 13-6 5-4 0.684 – 0.556 = +0.128
“The Twilight Zone” 10-5 7-4 0.667 – 0.636 = +0.031
Bench Scoring 5-3 12-7 0.625 – 0.632 = -0.007
Unforced Turnovers 9-6 7-4 0.600 – 0.636 = -0.036
Fouls 7-5 11-5 0.583 – 0.6875 = -0.1045
FIVE YEAR TOTALS (I didn’t keep track of each things all five years)
Offensive Possession Efficiency 97-1 1-66 0.990 – 0.015 = +0.975
Shooting Efficiency 54-3 2-35 0.947 – 0.054 = +0.893
Starters 90-17 3-48 0.841 – 0.059 = +0.782
“Hustle” Stats 48-4 8-33 0.923 – 0.195 = +0.728
Combined Percentages 46-4 10-34 0.920 – 0.227 = +0.693
Points scored/potential points 70-11 9-39 0.864 – 0.1875 = +0.6765
Adjusted Possession Efficiency 47-6 9-32 0.887 – 0.220 = +0.667
Points outside the paint (POP) 69-12 22-53 0.852 – 0.293 = +0.559
Two-pointers 68-16 22-50 0.810 – 0.306 = +0.504
Manufactured Possessions 71-17 21-48 0.807 – 0.304 = +0.503
Fast Break Points 67-14 23-44 0.827 – 0.343 = +0.484
Three-pointers 71-14 28-48 0.835 – 0.368 = +0.467
PIP “The Inner Sanctum” 63-19 24-44 0.768 – 0.353 = +0.425
Rebounding 51-11 43-57 0.823 – 0.430 = +0.393
Assist Percentage 44-9 48-55 0.830 – 0.466 = +0.364
Points off turnovers 65-25 24-42 0.722 – 0.364 = +0.358
Unsettled Situations 75-32 19-36 0.701 – 0.345 = +0.356
Trey “The Outer Limits” 32-9 22-28 0.780 – 0.440 = +0.340
First Chance Points 63-24 29-44 0.724 – 0.397 = +0.327
Points per Takeover 61-24 30-43 0.718 – 0.411 = +0.307
Fast Break Percentage 39-14 17-22 0.736 – 0.436 = +0.300
Fouls 57-24 37-44 0.704 – 0.457 = +0.247
Effective Offensive Rebounding 64-31 29-37 0.674 – 0.439 = +0.235
“The Twilight Zone” 64-28 24-26 0.696 - .0480 = +0.216
Free-Throws 59-36 30-32 0.621 – 0.484 = +0.137
Bench Scoring 35-20 55-45 0.636 – 0.550 = +0.086
Second Chance Points 47-34 41-34 0.580 – 0.547 = +0.033
Unforced Turnovers 39-28 43-30 0.582 – 0.589 = -0.007
Offensive possession efficiency (points divided by possessions with offensive rebounds and turnovers considered the same possession) will always be the stat that most directly relates to victory because possessions will be one apart: they alternate after the opening tip. I’ve had two occasions where the losing team won this stat in one point games due to rounding but that’s the only diversion from the norm. Adjusted possession efficiency removes offensive rebounds and turnovers from the formula, which means those things wind up be counted as separate possessions, which means that possessions can be more than one apart. It’s actually the more interesting stat, although you can grade the pace of a game with the original formula. North Carolina II was a 144-possession game. Clemson II was a 118-possession game. Fortunately we played well enough to win at both speeds.
Starter points are going to be more important than bench points if you have a short rotation. If send waves of players at the other team, like Florida State, bench points are going to be more important.
Seven of the top ten stats are about putting the ball in the basket. JB mentions it as a big factor a lot and people groan. It was Naismith’s first idea and his best one.
If you can’t out-shoot the opposition, you’ve got to do a better job of getting the ball. But that is better measured by stats that include takeovers, such as “Hustle Stats” and “Manufactured Possessions”, as opposed to simply looking at rebounding. And I was amazed at how irrelevant second chance points were. I think it can be an import stat in certain games but it gets skewed by games where the other team gets a lot of offensive rebounds because they are missing a lot of shots.
I thought ‘First Chance Points’, (against a set defense) and ‘Unsettled Situations’ (after a turnover or offensive rebound) would be more significant. I think the “Twilight Zone”, (jumpers between the paint and the arc), would matter more if teams would use it more. But the focus is on PIP and treys, (and so is the defense).
Free throws can matter a lot in certain games but it’s not a big stat looking at the whole season.
The worst stat is “Unforced Turnovers”, which is turnovers minus the other team’s steals. I thought this would be a measure of sloppiness but it’s just a sloppy stat that doesn’t have much impact. It’s my leading candidate to be dropped next year.
