SWC75
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I’ll continue doing a statistical analysis of games this year with some of the off-beat numbers I like to look at. I’ll post them after each game, probably the next day.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things player do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Rakeem Christmas 10NP in 35 minutes season: 184NP in 538 minutes per 40: 13.7
Tyler Ennis………….. 10NP in 35 minutes season: 322NP in 827 minutes per 40: 15.6
Michael Gbinije …. 8NP in 22 minutes season: 92NP in 310 minutes per 40: 11.8
C. J. Fair………………. 7NP in 39 minutes season: 293NP in 896 minutes per 40: 13.1
Jerami Grant……….. 6NP in 35 minutes season: 291NP in 731 minutes per 40: 15.9
Trevor Cooney…… 5NP in 34 minutes season: 286NP in 762 minutes per 40: 15.0
Ron Patterson…….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 12NP in 50 minutes per 40: 9.6
Baye Moussa Keita 0NP in 0 minutes season: 80NP in 363 minutes per 40: 8.8
Tyler Roberson……. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 19NP in 120 minutes per 40: 6.3
B. J. Johnson……….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 1NP in 51 minutes per 40: 0.8
DaJuan Coleman…. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 61NP in 169 minutes per 40: 14.4
Comment: The starters on this team, (defined as the four guys who have played the most minutes) have net point averages ranging from 15.9-13.1, a difference of 2.8. The SU athletics website has all the necessary numbers since the 1982-83 season. Over that time the average differential between the best starter and the worst has been 10.3. 2.8 is the lowest difference, although there have been some recent years that were close. Here are the numbers, (I’ll use the alter year to mark the season such that 1982-83 is “83”):
83 21.3-8.6 = 12.7
84 18.2-9.5 = 8.7
85 17.7-7.0 = 10.7
86 20.9-12.3 = 8.6
87 22.5-12.7 = 9.3
88 27.3-11.1 = 16.2
89 28.5-12.0 = 16.5
90 26.7-9.5 = 17.2
91 26.1-8.4 = 17.7
92 18.7-8.4 = 10.3
93 19.1-10.4 = 8.7
94 20.3-11.7 = 8.6
95 22.7-10.6 = 12.1
96 22.6-7.8 = 14.8
97 17.8-9.8 = 8.0
98 19.5-8.7 = 10.8
99 21.9-8.0 = 13.9
00 21.8-10.1 = 11.7
01 20.0-9.0 = 11.0
02 18.9-10.7 = 8.2
03 22.9-11.8 = 11.1
04 19.3-13.5 = 5.8
05 20.5-8.1 = 12.4
06 14.5-11.1 = 3.4
07 17.9-9.8 = 8.1
08 17.3-13.3 = 4.0
09 19.2-11.0 = 8.2
10 22.4-12.4 = 10.0
11 22.1-11.1 = 11.0
12 17.3-14.0 = 3.3
13 16.7-11.3 = 5.4
14 15.9-13.1 = 2.8 (so far)
The trend in recent years has been away from having a team led by a superstar player and more toward a balanced line-up where anybody could make the plays to win the game and the defense has to guard everybody. This team is the ultimate example so far. If you add Keita’s total net points to Christmas’s, here is the distribution: Center: 276 Power Forward: 291, Small Forward: 296, Shooting Guard: 286; Point Guard: 322. That’s balance. That’s got to be the best starting five in the country.
Tyler Ennis has led, (or tied for the lead), in net points 10 times. Trevor Cooney has led 5 times, CJ Fair 4 Jerami Grant and Rakeem Christmas three times each and DaJuan Coleman and now Baye Keita once each.
Possession:
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 6 offensive and 18 defensive rebounds. They had 16 offensive and 19 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 6 of 25 times, (24.0%). When they missed, they got the ball 16 of 34 times (47.1%). We’ve averaged getting 39.9% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 32.3% of theirs. We have won the rebounding battle by this measure 16 times in 24 games but lost it in the last three.
Of our 8 turnovers, 4 were their steals and 4 were our own miscues. Of their 11 turnovers, 2 were Syracuse steals and 9 were their fault. Syracuse has had fewer turnovers in 20 of 24 games, with two even. Overall we are ahead by 117 turnovers on the season, (220-337) and are also ahead in unforced errors, (117-134). We have had single digit turnovers in 9 of 11 ACC games and had only 10 in the other two. That’s very impressive for a team with a young backcourt.
If you add our 24 rebounds to their 11 turnovers, we had 35 “manufactured possessions”. They had 35 + 8 = 43, so we were -8. We’ve won that battle 20 times this season in 24 games, with an average margin of +9.3. We’ve won by double figures 13 times. It’s the main reason we are 24-0, even if it’s not the reason we beat Pittsburgh.
Shooting:
It’s still what the game is all about. And it won this game for us- but not on outside jump shots. We were 12 for 28, (.429) inside the arc, 6 for 14, (.429) outside it and 16 for 19 (.842) from the line. They were 12 for 31 (.387), 6/19 (.316) and 14/19 (.737). On the season, Syracuse is shooting .495/.363/.704, the opposition .451/.335/.664. We complain about our free throw shooting but we are now out-shooting the opposition on the year by 40 points. Good free throw shooting has been a positive factor in most of those close games we have won. Here are our two point percentages for every year of this decade: 2009-10: .571-.462 (+109), 2010-11: .562-.444 (+118), 2011-12: .519-.425 (+94), 2012-13: .485-.425 (+60). So far this year: .495-.451 = +44.
We had 58 points, 20 in the paint, 18 from the arc and 16 from the line so we scored 4 points from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 56-20-18-14= 4 points in the Twilight Zone. Overall, we had 22 POP: Points Outside the Paint to 22 for them. So far this year Syracuse is averaging 24 POP, 8 from the TZ, the opposition 26/5.
12 of our 18 baskets were assisted (.667) and 15 of their 18 (.833). For the year we are assisting on 51.9% of our baskets to 64.5% for the opposition, who have had more assists or a higher percentage in 19 of 23 games, all of which we’ve won. Assists tend to come more often from jump shots than lay-ups or dunks so the more assists you get, the more you are settling for jumps shots to try to win the game which is often a bad strategy.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 42 FGA - 6 OREBs + 8 TOs + (.475 x 19) = 53.025 possessions. They were 50 -16 + 11 + (.475 x 19) = 54.025 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 53 possessions in which we scored 58 points, (1.094) and 54 possessions in which they scored 56 points, (1.037). For the year we are 1.163 vs. 0.962. We’ve been more efficient than our opposition in every game so far, which is also why we are 24-0. We’ve averaged 122 combined possessions per game this year. In this game, there were 107 possessions, the lowest combined total of the year. Clemson came in with a reputation as a great defensive team. Our offensive efficiency was right on our average for the year. We got plenty of good shots. Clemson doesn’t give up a lot of points simply because they play so slowly and hold the score down. They aren’t a great defensive team.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game: 12-14, 12-13, 14-13, 20-16. The average for the season is: 16-13, 18-15, 17-15, 19-15. We’ve won 62 quarters, (and one overtime), lost 27 and tied 7. We’ve scored at least 15 in 68 of 96 quarters and held the opposition under that 52 times.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog, and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game Tyler Ennis had 13 points and 5 assists for 18 “hockey points”. So far Tyler Ennis has led 11 times and CJ Fair has done it 9 times, Trevor Cooney 5 times and Jerami Grant has done it twice, including ties.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted than those later in the game, (although sometimes we don’t score until later in the game CJ Fair sat us down in the first half with a jump shot at 1:18. Rakeem Christmas did in the second half with a lay-up 2:44 seconds in. CJ Fair has now sat us down 14 times, Tyler Ennis 9 times, Rakeem Christmas and Trevor Cooney 7 times, DaJuan Coleman 5 times and Jerami Grant 4 times, (remember he didn’t start until Coleman got hurt).
Longest: 8:50, second half vs. Miami. We were 4:51 vs. St. Francis, (second half), 3:12 vs. Villanova (first half), 2:44 vs. Pittsburgh II (second half) 2:37 vs. Notre Dame (first half), 2:29 vs. Eastern Michigan (second half), 2:13 vs. Pittsburgh (first half), 2:05 vs. North Carolina (second half), 1:45 vs. Boston College (first half), 1:38 vs. Pittsburgh (second half), 1:26 vs. Duke (first half), 1:25 vs. Wake Forest, (1st half), 1:21 vs. Duke (second half) 1:18 vs. North Carolina (first half) and Pittsburgh II (first half)and 1:16 vs. Clemson (first half)
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things player do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Rakeem Christmas 10NP in 35 minutes season: 184NP in 538 minutes per 40: 13.7
Tyler Ennis………….. 10NP in 35 minutes season: 322NP in 827 minutes per 40: 15.6
Michael Gbinije …. 8NP in 22 minutes season: 92NP in 310 minutes per 40: 11.8
C. J. Fair………………. 7NP in 39 minutes season: 293NP in 896 minutes per 40: 13.1
Jerami Grant……….. 6NP in 35 minutes season: 291NP in 731 minutes per 40: 15.9
Trevor Cooney…… 5NP in 34 minutes season: 286NP in 762 minutes per 40: 15.0
Ron Patterson…….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 12NP in 50 minutes per 40: 9.6
Baye Moussa Keita 0NP in 0 minutes season: 80NP in 363 minutes per 40: 8.8
Tyler Roberson……. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 19NP in 120 minutes per 40: 6.3
B. J. Johnson……….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 1NP in 51 minutes per 40: 0.8
DaJuan Coleman…. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 61NP in 169 minutes per 40: 14.4
Comment: The starters on this team, (defined as the four guys who have played the most minutes) have net point averages ranging from 15.9-13.1, a difference of 2.8. The SU athletics website has all the necessary numbers since the 1982-83 season. Over that time the average differential between the best starter and the worst has been 10.3. 2.8 is the lowest difference, although there have been some recent years that were close. Here are the numbers, (I’ll use the alter year to mark the season such that 1982-83 is “83”):
83 21.3-8.6 = 12.7
84 18.2-9.5 = 8.7
85 17.7-7.0 = 10.7
86 20.9-12.3 = 8.6
87 22.5-12.7 = 9.3
88 27.3-11.1 = 16.2
89 28.5-12.0 = 16.5
90 26.7-9.5 = 17.2
91 26.1-8.4 = 17.7
92 18.7-8.4 = 10.3
93 19.1-10.4 = 8.7
94 20.3-11.7 = 8.6
95 22.7-10.6 = 12.1
96 22.6-7.8 = 14.8
97 17.8-9.8 = 8.0
98 19.5-8.7 = 10.8
99 21.9-8.0 = 13.9
00 21.8-10.1 = 11.7
01 20.0-9.0 = 11.0
02 18.9-10.7 = 8.2
03 22.9-11.8 = 11.1
04 19.3-13.5 = 5.8
05 20.5-8.1 = 12.4
06 14.5-11.1 = 3.4
07 17.9-9.8 = 8.1
08 17.3-13.3 = 4.0
09 19.2-11.0 = 8.2
10 22.4-12.4 = 10.0
11 22.1-11.1 = 11.0
12 17.3-14.0 = 3.3
13 16.7-11.3 = 5.4
14 15.9-13.1 = 2.8 (so far)
The trend in recent years has been away from having a team led by a superstar player and more toward a balanced line-up where anybody could make the plays to win the game and the defense has to guard everybody. This team is the ultimate example so far. If you add Keita’s total net points to Christmas’s, here is the distribution: Center: 276 Power Forward: 291, Small Forward: 296, Shooting Guard: 286; Point Guard: 322. That’s balance. That’s got to be the best starting five in the country.
Tyler Ennis has led, (or tied for the lead), in net points 10 times. Trevor Cooney has led 5 times, CJ Fair 4 Jerami Grant and Rakeem Christmas three times each and DaJuan Coleman and now Baye Keita once each.
Possession:
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 6 offensive and 18 defensive rebounds. They had 16 offensive and 19 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 6 of 25 times, (24.0%). When they missed, they got the ball 16 of 34 times (47.1%). We’ve averaged getting 39.9% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 32.3% of theirs. We have won the rebounding battle by this measure 16 times in 24 games but lost it in the last three.
Of our 8 turnovers, 4 were their steals and 4 were our own miscues. Of their 11 turnovers, 2 were Syracuse steals and 9 were their fault. Syracuse has had fewer turnovers in 20 of 24 games, with two even. Overall we are ahead by 117 turnovers on the season, (220-337) and are also ahead in unforced errors, (117-134). We have had single digit turnovers in 9 of 11 ACC games and had only 10 in the other two. That’s very impressive for a team with a young backcourt.
If you add our 24 rebounds to their 11 turnovers, we had 35 “manufactured possessions”. They had 35 + 8 = 43, so we were -8. We’ve won that battle 20 times this season in 24 games, with an average margin of +9.3. We’ve won by double figures 13 times. It’s the main reason we are 24-0, even if it’s not the reason we beat Pittsburgh.
Shooting:
It’s still what the game is all about. And it won this game for us- but not on outside jump shots. We were 12 for 28, (.429) inside the arc, 6 for 14, (.429) outside it and 16 for 19 (.842) from the line. They were 12 for 31 (.387), 6/19 (.316) and 14/19 (.737). On the season, Syracuse is shooting .495/.363/.704, the opposition .451/.335/.664. We complain about our free throw shooting but we are now out-shooting the opposition on the year by 40 points. Good free throw shooting has been a positive factor in most of those close games we have won. Here are our two point percentages for every year of this decade: 2009-10: .571-.462 (+109), 2010-11: .562-.444 (+118), 2011-12: .519-.425 (+94), 2012-13: .485-.425 (+60). So far this year: .495-.451 = +44.
We had 58 points, 20 in the paint, 18 from the arc and 16 from the line so we scored 4 points from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 56-20-18-14= 4 points in the Twilight Zone. Overall, we had 22 POP: Points Outside the Paint to 22 for them. So far this year Syracuse is averaging 24 POP, 8 from the TZ, the opposition 26/5.
12 of our 18 baskets were assisted (.667) and 15 of their 18 (.833). For the year we are assisting on 51.9% of our baskets to 64.5% for the opposition, who have had more assists or a higher percentage in 19 of 23 games, all of which we’ve won. Assists tend to come more often from jump shots than lay-ups or dunks so the more assists you get, the more you are settling for jumps shots to try to win the game which is often a bad strategy.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 42 FGA - 6 OREBs + 8 TOs + (.475 x 19) = 53.025 possessions. They were 50 -16 + 11 + (.475 x 19) = 54.025 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 53 possessions in which we scored 58 points, (1.094) and 54 possessions in which they scored 56 points, (1.037). For the year we are 1.163 vs. 0.962. We’ve been more efficient than our opposition in every game so far, which is also why we are 24-0. We’ve averaged 122 combined possessions per game this year. In this game, there were 107 possessions, the lowest combined total of the year. Clemson came in with a reputation as a great defensive team. Our offensive efficiency was right on our average for the year. We got plenty of good shots. Clemson doesn’t give up a lot of points simply because they play so slowly and hold the score down. They aren’t a great defensive team.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game: 12-14, 12-13, 14-13, 20-16. The average for the season is: 16-13, 18-15, 17-15, 19-15. We’ve won 62 quarters, (and one overtime), lost 27 and tied 7. We’ve scored at least 15 in 68 of 96 quarters and held the opposition under that 52 times.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog, and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game Tyler Ennis had 13 points and 5 assists for 18 “hockey points”. So far Tyler Ennis has led 11 times and CJ Fair has done it 9 times, Trevor Cooney 5 times and Jerami Grant has done it twice, including ties.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted than those later in the game, (although sometimes we don’t score until later in the game CJ Fair sat us down in the first half with a jump shot at 1:18. Rakeem Christmas did in the second half with a lay-up 2:44 seconds in. CJ Fair has now sat us down 14 times, Tyler Ennis 9 times, Rakeem Christmas and Trevor Cooney 7 times, DaJuan Coleman 5 times and Jerami Grant 4 times, (remember he didn’t start until Coleman got hurt).
Longest: 8:50, second half vs. Miami. We were 4:51 vs. St. Francis, (second half), 3:12 vs. Villanova (first half), 2:44 vs. Pittsburgh II (second half) 2:37 vs. Notre Dame (first half), 2:29 vs. Eastern Michigan (second half), 2:13 vs. Pittsburgh (first half), 2:05 vs. North Carolina (second half), 1:45 vs. Boston College (first half), 1:38 vs. Pittsburgh (second half), 1:26 vs. Duke (first half), 1:25 vs. Wake Forest, (1st half), 1:21 vs. Duke (second half) 1:18 vs. North Carolina (first half) and Pittsburgh II (first half)and 1:16 vs. Clemson (first half)