SWC75
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I’ll continue doing a statistical analysis of games this year with some of the off-beat numbers I like to look at. I’ll post them after each game, probably the next day.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things player do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
DaJuan Coleman…. 20NP in 18 minutes season: 33NP in 63 minutes per 40: 21.0
Jerami Grant……….. 16NP in 29 minutes season: 38NP in 80 minutes per 40: 19.0
Trevor Cooney…… 8NP in 27 minutes season: 44NP in 106 minutes per 40: 16.6
Michael Gbinije …. 5NP in 22 minutes season: 29NP in 71 minutes per 40: 16.3
Rakeem Christmas 1NP in 22 minutes season: 31NP in 82 minutes per 40: 15.1
Baye Moussa Keita 1NP in 12 minutes season: 21NP in 60 minutes per 40: 14.0
C. J. Fair………………. 1NP in 37 minutes season: 48NP in 139 minutes per 40: 13.8
Tyler Ennis………….. -6NP in 33 minutes season: 32NP in 113 minutes per 40: 11.3
Tyler Roberson……. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 8NP in 36 minutes per 40: 8.9
Ron Patterson…….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 4NP in 22 minutes per 40: 7.3
B. J. Johnson……….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: -1NP in 25 minutes per 40: -1.6
Comment: It’s still early in the season and it’s actually kind of fun to see the numbers move wildly up and down from game to game. No. DaJuan Coleman is not our best player. But he ahs a big game so he goes, temporarily to the top of the list. Trevor Cooney is still surfing the wave of that first game. Tyler Ennis had a terrible game vs. St. Francis and so his numbers are down from where they will eventually be. We’ve ahd four different players lead in “net points” in four games. We have a lot of guys who can play and we get different ones making the difference in each game. The “sons”: Roberson, Patterson and Johnson are young players who have not progressed to the point where they can contribute. But someday they might be the stars of a very good Syracuse team.
CJ Fair, Trevor Cooney and Tyler Ennis have each led the team in net points once in games this year.
Possession:
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 18 offensive and 18 defensive rebounds. They had 9 offensive and 21 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 18 of 39 times, (46.2%). When they missed, they got the ball 9 of 27 times (33.3%). Syracuse has won all the rebounding battles this season, averaging 46.4% to 25.0%.
Of our 8 turnovers, 5 were their steals and 3 were our own miscues. (Those are very impressive numbers against a tight man for man defense). Of their 13 turnovers, 9 were Syracuse steals and 4 were their fault. Syracuse has had fewer turnovers in all games, (43-70) but more unforced errors, (24-22).
If you add our 36 rebounds to their 13 turnovers, we had 49 “manufactured possessions”. They had 30 + 8 = 38, so we were +11. We’ve won that battle every time this season, with an average margin of +20.5. It’s the main reason we are 4-0. But what happens when we lose this battle?
Shooting:
It’s still what the game is all about. We were 16 for 45, (.356), inside the arc, 2 for 6, (.333), outside it and 18 for 27 (.667) from the line, (people think we had a bad free-throw shooting night but that’s where we won the game: 13 for 16 down the stretch). They were 13/30, (.433), 5/13 (.385) and 9 for 15, (.600). Syracuse is shooting .466/.318/.617, the opposition .446/.370/.651. The differential in two point field goal percentage is very disturbing. Here are the percentages for every year of this decade: 2009-10: .571-.462 (+109), 2010-11: .562-.444 (+118), 2011-12: .519-.425 (+94), 2012-13: .485-.425 (+60). So far this year, (4 games but four games against opponents we should dominate inside): .466-.446 = +20.
We had 56 points, 30 in the paint, 6 from the arc and 18 from the line so we scored 2 points from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 50-22-15-9 =4 points in the Twilight Zone. Overall, we had only 8 POP: Points Outside the Paint to 19 for them, (and 19 is a low total). So far this year Syracuse is averaging 23 POP, 7.5 from the TZ, the opposition 31/3.
8 of our 18 baskets were assists (.444) and 10 of their 18 (.556). For the year we are assisting on 48.0% of our baskets to 64.1% for the opposition.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 51 FGA -18 OREBS + 8 + (.475 x 27) = 53.825 possessions. They were 43 – 9 + 13 + (.475 x 15) = 54.125 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 54 possessions in which we scored 56 points, (1.037) and 54 possessions in which they scored 50 points, (0.926). For the year we are 1.138 vs. 0.893.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game: 14-9, 16-17, 8-14, 18-10. The average for the season is: 15.5-11, 20-16, 20-16.5, 18-14. We’ve won 10 quarters, lost 5. We’ve scored at least 15 in 14 of 16 quarters and held the opposition under that 11 times.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog. I decided to use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game, Jerami Grant had 13 points and 2 assists for a total of 15 “points” to lead the team in this game. So far C.J. Fair’s done it twice and Trevor Cooney and Jerami Grant have done it once each .
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted that those alter in the game, (although sometimes we don’t score until later in the game. DaJuan Coleman sat us down with a lay-up at 19:42 of the first half, Trevor Cooney with a trey at 15:09 of the second half, easily the longest stretch of the season so far. CJ Fair has sat us down 3 times, Coleman and Ennis twice and Cooney once.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things player do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
DaJuan Coleman…. 20NP in 18 minutes season: 33NP in 63 minutes per 40: 21.0
Jerami Grant……….. 16NP in 29 minutes season: 38NP in 80 minutes per 40: 19.0
Trevor Cooney…… 8NP in 27 minutes season: 44NP in 106 minutes per 40: 16.6
Michael Gbinije …. 5NP in 22 minutes season: 29NP in 71 minutes per 40: 16.3
Rakeem Christmas 1NP in 22 minutes season: 31NP in 82 minutes per 40: 15.1
Baye Moussa Keita 1NP in 12 minutes season: 21NP in 60 minutes per 40: 14.0
C. J. Fair………………. 1NP in 37 minutes season: 48NP in 139 minutes per 40: 13.8
Tyler Ennis………….. -6NP in 33 minutes season: 32NP in 113 minutes per 40: 11.3
Tyler Roberson……. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 8NP in 36 minutes per 40: 8.9
Ron Patterson…….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 4NP in 22 minutes per 40: 7.3
B. J. Johnson……….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: -1NP in 25 minutes per 40: -1.6
Comment: It’s still early in the season and it’s actually kind of fun to see the numbers move wildly up and down from game to game. No. DaJuan Coleman is not our best player. But he ahs a big game so he goes, temporarily to the top of the list. Trevor Cooney is still surfing the wave of that first game. Tyler Ennis had a terrible game vs. St. Francis and so his numbers are down from where they will eventually be. We’ve ahd four different players lead in “net points” in four games. We have a lot of guys who can play and we get different ones making the difference in each game. The “sons”: Roberson, Patterson and Johnson are young players who have not progressed to the point where they can contribute. But someday they might be the stars of a very good Syracuse team.
CJ Fair, Trevor Cooney and Tyler Ennis have each led the team in net points once in games this year.
Possession:
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 18 offensive and 18 defensive rebounds. They had 9 offensive and 21 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 18 of 39 times, (46.2%). When they missed, they got the ball 9 of 27 times (33.3%). Syracuse has won all the rebounding battles this season, averaging 46.4% to 25.0%.
Of our 8 turnovers, 5 were their steals and 3 were our own miscues. (Those are very impressive numbers against a tight man for man defense). Of their 13 turnovers, 9 were Syracuse steals and 4 were their fault. Syracuse has had fewer turnovers in all games, (43-70) but more unforced errors, (24-22).
If you add our 36 rebounds to their 13 turnovers, we had 49 “manufactured possessions”. They had 30 + 8 = 38, so we were +11. We’ve won that battle every time this season, with an average margin of +20.5. It’s the main reason we are 4-0. But what happens when we lose this battle?
Shooting:
It’s still what the game is all about. We were 16 for 45, (.356), inside the arc, 2 for 6, (.333), outside it and 18 for 27 (.667) from the line, (people think we had a bad free-throw shooting night but that’s where we won the game: 13 for 16 down the stretch). They were 13/30, (.433), 5/13 (.385) and 9 for 15, (.600). Syracuse is shooting .466/.318/.617, the opposition .446/.370/.651. The differential in two point field goal percentage is very disturbing. Here are the percentages for every year of this decade: 2009-10: .571-.462 (+109), 2010-11: .562-.444 (+118), 2011-12: .519-.425 (+94), 2012-13: .485-.425 (+60). So far this year, (4 games but four games against opponents we should dominate inside): .466-.446 = +20.
We had 56 points, 30 in the paint, 6 from the arc and 18 from the line so we scored 2 points from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 50-22-15-9 =4 points in the Twilight Zone. Overall, we had only 8 POP: Points Outside the Paint to 19 for them, (and 19 is a low total). So far this year Syracuse is averaging 23 POP, 7.5 from the TZ, the opposition 31/3.
8 of our 18 baskets were assists (.444) and 10 of their 18 (.556). For the year we are assisting on 48.0% of our baskets to 64.1% for the opposition.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 51 FGA -18 OREBS + 8 + (.475 x 27) = 53.825 possessions. They were 43 – 9 + 13 + (.475 x 15) = 54.125 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 54 possessions in which we scored 56 points, (1.037) and 54 possessions in which they scored 50 points, (0.926). For the year we are 1.138 vs. 0.893.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game: 14-9, 16-17, 8-14, 18-10. The average for the season is: 15.5-11, 20-16, 20-16.5, 18-14. We’ve won 10 quarters, lost 5. We’ve scored at least 15 in 14 of 16 quarters and held the opposition under that 11 times.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog. I decided to use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game, Jerami Grant had 13 points and 2 assists for a total of 15 “points” to lead the team in this game. So far C.J. Fair’s done it twice and Trevor Cooney and Jerami Grant have done it once each .
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted that those alter in the game, (although sometimes we don’t score until later in the game. DaJuan Coleman sat us down with a lay-up at 19:42 of the first half, Trevor Cooney with a trey at 15:09 of the second half, easily the longest stretch of the season so far. CJ Fair has sat us down 3 times, Coleman and Ennis twice and Cooney once.