SWC75
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I’ll continue doing a statistical analysis of games this year with some of the off-beat numbers I like to look at. I’ll post them after each game, probably the next day.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things players do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Michael Gbinije….. 16NP in 39 minutes season: 59NP in 249 minutes per 40: 9.5
Rakeem Christmas 14NP in 34 minutes season: 182NP in 303 minutes per 40: 24.0
Trevor Cooney…… 11NP in 45 minutes season: 90NP in 359 minutes per 40: 10.0
Tyler Roberson……. 10NP in 29 minutes season: 62NP in 157 minutes per 40: 15.8
Kaleb Joseph……….. 9NP in 45 minutes season: 73NP in 341 minutes per 40: 8.6
Chinoso Obokoh….. 0NP in 1 minutes season: 14NP in 31 minutes per 40: 18.1
B. J. Johnson……….. -2NP in 7 minutes season: 48NP in 165 minutes per 40: 11.6
Chris McCullough.. -4NP in 25 minutes season: 134NP in 327 minutes per 40: 16.4
DNP-CD- none
Ron Patterson…….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 2NP in 83 minutes per 40: 1.0
INJURED
DaJuan Coleman…. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 0NP in 0 minutes per 40: 0.0
SUSPENDED
None
Comment: This was the first time Mike Gbinije led in the net points. Despite the bad ending, he had quite a productive game with 18 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists and 3 steals. Ideally you’d like 5 guys to have 10+ net points, the average you’d like from a starter. In this game, no one had a super game with 20+NP but Gbinije had 16, Christmas 14, Cooney 11, Roberson 10 and Joseph 9, so we are getting close. If we can get McCullough back on the rails, we can be a formidable team.
Chris McCullough has led in Net Points 4 times, Rakeem Christmas 3 times, Mike Gbinije, BJ Johnson and Tyler Roberson once each.
POSSESSION
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 8 offensive and 22 defensive rebounds. They had 15 offensive and 21 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball only 8 of 29 times, (27.6%). When they missed, they got the ball 15 of 37 times (40.5%). We’ve won the rebounding battle in every game by this measure 8 times in 10 games. We’ve averaged getting 39% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 30% of theirs.
Of our 20 turnovers, 12 were their steals and 8 were our own miscues. Of their 18 turnovers, 11 were Syracuse steals and 7 were their fault. We have had fewer turnovers in 5 of 10 games with 1 even. Last year we had fewer turnovers in 29 of 34 games with 2 even. We are averaging 14 turnovers, 7 unforced, Our opposition is averaging 15/6.
If you add our 30 rebounds to their 18 turnovers, we had 48 “manufactured possessions”. They had 36 + 20= 56, so we were -8. We have won that battle it 7 of 10 times. For the season we’ve averaged 56 to 47.5 (+8.5).
The first half against Villanova was great but I noticed that we weren’t dominating the possession stats: 16 rebounds plus 8 Nova turnovers = 24. 16 Wildcat rebounds + 9 Syracuse turnovers = 25. We got the lead by out-shooting them 63%-35%. You knew that wouldn’t last and so the game had to get closer. Nova out-shot us 41%-54% in the second half and their efforts to get and keep control of the ball started to matter. It was disappointing because I thought the scenario of and SU victory would involve a poor shooting night for Villanova while we dominated the boards, as he had been in most of our games this year. But we failed to do that and lost in overtime. We’ve talked the officiating and the turnovers to death but rebounding mattered a lot in this game.
SHOOTING
It’s still what the game is all about. It’s what this game was all about, for sure. We were 26 for 49, (.531) inside the arc, 4 for 12, (.333) outside it and 13 for 18 (.722) from the line. They were 22 for 46 (.478), 4/16 (.250) and 26/32 (.813). We’ve led in two point field goal percentage in 8 of 10 games and in free throw percentage in 7 games. We’ve led in three point field goals percentage, believe it or not, in 5 of 10 games, (our opposition isn’t exactly filling it up, either). For the season we are .520/.234/.668. Our opposition is .407/.311/.693. We were 4 for 6 from there point range in the first half, 0 for 6 in the second half and overtime.
We had 36 points in the paint, 19 off turnovers, 4 “second chance” points, 4 fast break points and 11 from the bench. Our opposition had 38 points in the paint, 26 off turnovers, 12 “second chance” points, 4 fast break points and 24 from the bench. We’ve led in PIP 6 times, POTO 6 times, SCP 6 times, FBP 5 times with a tie and BP 6 times, with a tie. For the season we are averaging 36-23 PIP, 17-14 POTO, 13-9.5 SCP, 10-8 FBP and 13-12.5 BP. Our poor offensive rebounding resulted in a deficit of 4-12 in second chance points, another critical stat in this game.
We had 77 points, 36 in the paint, 12 from the arc and 13 from the line so we had 28”POP”, (points outside the paint: 77-36-13) and scored 1 points, (28 POP-12 from the arc), from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. It was a weapon we used to very good effect in this game. They had 82/36/12/26= 18 POP and 6 from the Twilight Zone. We’ve only led in POP 3 times but we’ve led in TZ points 8 times in 10 games. For the year we are averaging 20 POP and 9 TZ, our opposition 25/6. The game is so much easier when you don’t have to go to the basket for all your points.
19 of our 30 baskets were assisted (.633) and 17 of their 22 (.773). For the year we are assisting on 61% of our baskets to 65% for the opposition, who have had a higher percentage in 7 of 10 games. Assists tend to come more often from jump shots than lay-ups or dunks so the more assists you get, the more you are settling for jump shots to try to win the game which is often a bad strategy.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 61 FGA - 8 OREBs + 20 TOs + (.475 x 18) = 81.55 possessions. They were 62 -15+ 18+ (.475 x 32) = 80.2 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 81 possessions in which we scored 77 points, (0.951) and 80 possessions in which they scored 82 points, (1.025). We have, of course, led 6 of 10 games in offensive efficiency since the winning team always leads in that stat. For the year we are averaging 1.010 points per possession to 0.878 for the opposition. In this game our offensive efficiency in the first half was 1.132. After that it was 0.704.
We had 161 combined possessions in this game. Since there was one overtime, I multiplied that by 40/45 to produce a 40 minute rate of 143 possessions. We’ve averaged 135 this year. We averaged 122 last year, so the pace appears to be better than it was last year.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog, and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game Michael Gbinije had 18 points and 5 assists for 23 “hockey” points and thus was our co-ODOG. Rakeem Christmas has been the O-Dog 4 times, Trevor Cooney and Michael Gbinije twice, BJ Johnson, Kaleb Joseph and Chris McCullough once each.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game 19-14, 24-17, 8-17, 18-21 OT: 8-13. For the season, we have an average of 15-11, 17-15, 16-15, 19-17. We’ve won 27 of 40 quarters. We’ve scored 15 or more in 26 quarters and held the opposition under that 21 times.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted Michael Gbinije opened the first half with a lay-up at 19:40 and Trevor Cooney did the same in the second half at 18:56. The average time we’ve had to wait is 1 minute 30 seconds. The longest we’ve waited this season is 2 minutes and 52 seconds in the first half vs. Loyola, (of course they would have waited for 11:30 in that game). Rakeem Christmas has sat us down 6 times, Kaleb Joseph, 4 times Chris McCullough 3 times, Trevor Cooney and Michael Gbinije twice and Tyler Roberson once.
FOULS
My theory about fouls is that the team that attempts the most two point shots will tend to get fouled the most. If the numbers are as predicted or close, there’s nothing to be read into them but if there’s a big disparity, it makes you wonder about how the game was called. In this game, we attempted 49 two point shots to 46, scored 36 points in the paint to 38 and got fouled 17 times to 27, attempting 18 foul shots to 32. The two point shots and points in the paint suggest the fouls called and free throw attempts should have been approximately even. They weren’t close. The ratio of two point attempts to times fouled was 2.9 for us and 1.7 for them. The ratio of points in the paint to times fouled was 2.1 for us to 1.4 for them. The ratio of free throw attempts to fouls called on the other team was 0.9 for us and 1.2 for them.
Last year we attempted 1368 two point shots to 993 for the opposition and scored 1028 PIP to 753. We committed 546 fouls to 598 and went to the line 720 to 607 times, suggesting that there should be a relationship between two points attempts and points in the point and how many fouls are called on the other team and how many times you got to the line. The ratio of two point attempts to times fouled was 2.3 for us and 1.8 for them. The ratio of points in the paint to times fouled was 1.7 for us to 1.4 for them. The ratio of free throw attempts to fouls called on the other team was 1.2 for us and 1.1 for them.
This year we have taken 433 two point shots and scored 356 points in the paint. We’ve been fouled 176 times and taken 198 free throws. Our opposition has taken 353 two point shots and scored 234 points in the paint. They’ve been fouled 166 times and taken only 183 free throws. The ratio of two point attempts to times fouled has been 2.5 for us and 2.1 for them. The ratio of points in the paint to times fouled has been 2.0 for us to 1.4 for them. The ratio of free throw attempts to fouls called on the other team has been 1.1 for us and 1.1 for them.
I can see some basis in the numbers for concluding that this game was not evenly officiated.
“MY MAN”
A reporter once asked Casey Stengel how come he won so many games with the Yankees. He said “Because I never play a game without “my man”. The reporter wondered who his man was. Casey suggested “You could look it up.” The reporter did look it up and found that Yogi Berra had played in every game that season at some positon: catcher, left field, pinch-hitting, something. He was the player Stengel had the highest regard for and the most trust in, so he didn’t want to do without him. Who is Jim Boeheim’s “man” this season? The only way to tell is to see who plays the most minutes each game. In this game, Trevor Cooney and Kaleb Joseph both played all 45 minutes. Trevor Cooney has been the “Man” 5 times, Chris McCullough and Kaleb Joseph 4 times and Rakeem Christmas once. Cooney has re-taken the team lead in minutes played with 359, 18 more than any other player.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things players do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Michael Gbinije….. 16NP in 39 minutes season: 59NP in 249 minutes per 40: 9.5
Rakeem Christmas 14NP in 34 minutes season: 182NP in 303 minutes per 40: 24.0
Trevor Cooney…… 11NP in 45 minutes season: 90NP in 359 minutes per 40: 10.0
Tyler Roberson……. 10NP in 29 minutes season: 62NP in 157 minutes per 40: 15.8
Kaleb Joseph……….. 9NP in 45 minutes season: 73NP in 341 minutes per 40: 8.6
Chinoso Obokoh….. 0NP in 1 minutes season: 14NP in 31 minutes per 40: 18.1
B. J. Johnson……….. -2NP in 7 minutes season: 48NP in 165 minutes per 40: 11.6
Chris McCullough.. -4NP in 25 minutes season: 134NP in 327 minutes per 40: 16.4
DNP-CD- none
Ron Patterson…….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 2NP in 83 minutes per 40: 1.0
INJURED
DaJuan Coleman…. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 0NP in 0 minutes per 40: 0.0
SUSPENDED
None
Comment: This was the first time Mike Gbinije led in the net points. Despite the bad ending, he had quite a productive game with 18 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists and 3 steals. Ideally you’d like 5 guys to have 10+ net points, the average you’d like from a starter. In this game, no one had a super game with 20+NP but Gbinije had 16, Christmas 14, Cooney 11, Roberson 10 and Joseph 9, so we are getting close. If we can get McCullough back on the rails, we can be a formidable team.
Chris McCullough has led in Net Points 4 times, Rakeem Christmas 3 times, Mike Gbinije, BJ Johnson and Tyler Roberson once each.
POSSESSION
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 8 offensive and 22 defensive rebounds. They had 15 offensive and 21 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball only 8 of 29 times, (27.6%). When they missed, they got the ball 15 of 37 times (40.5%). We’ve won the rebounding battle in every game by this measure 8 times in 10 games. We’ve averaged getting 39% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 30% of theirs.
Of our 20 turnovers, 12 were their steals and 8 were our own miscues. Of their 18 turnovers, 11 were Syracuse steals and 7 were their fault. We have had fewer turnovers in 5 of 10 games with 1 even. Last year we had fewer turnovers in 29 of 34 games with 2 even. We are averaging 14 turnovers, 7 unforced, Our opposition is averaging 15/6.
If you add our 30 rebounds to their 18 turnovers, we had 48 “manufactured possessions”. They had 36 + 20= 56, so we were -8. We have won that battle it 7 of 10 times. For the season we’ve averaged 56 to 47.5 (+8.5).
The first half against Villanova was great but I noticed that we weren’t dominating the possession stats: 16 rebounds plus 8 Nova turnovers = 24. 16 Wildcat rebounds + 9 Syracuse turnovers = 25. We got the lead by out-shooting them 63%-35%. You knew that wouldn’t last and so the game had to get closer. Nova out-shot us 41%-54% in the second half and their efforts to get and keep control of the ball started to matter. It was disappointing because I thought the scenario of and SU victory would involve a poor shooting night for Villanova while we dominated the boards, as he had been in most of our games this year. But we failed to do that and lost in overtime. We’ve talked the officiating and the turnovers to death but rebounding mattered a lot in this game.
SHOOTING
It’s still what the game is all about. It’s what this game was all about, for sure. We were 26 for 49, (.531) inside the arc, 4 for 12, (.333) outside it and 13 for 18 (.722) from the line. They were 22 for 46 (.478), 4/16 (.250) and 26/32 (.813). We’ve led in two point field goal percentage in 8 of 10 games and in free throw percentage in 7 games. We’ve led in three point field goals percentage, believe it or not, in 5 of 10 games, (our opposition isn’t exactly filling it up, either). For the season we are .520/.234/.668. Our opposition is .407/.311/.693. We were 4 for 6 from there point range in the first half, 0 for 6 in the second half and overtime.
We had 36 points in the paint, 19 off turnovers, 4 “second chance” points, 4 fast break points and 11 from the bench. Our opposition had 38 points in the paint, 26 off turnovers, 12 “second chance” points, 4 fast break points and 24 from the bench. We’ve led in PIP 6 times, POTO 6 times, SCP 6 times, FBP 5 times with a tie and BP 6 times, with a tie. For the season we are averaging 36-23 PIP, 17-14 POTO, 13-9.5 SCP, 10-8 FBP and 13-12.5 BP. Our poor offensive rebounding resulted in a deficit of 4-12 in second chance points, another critical stat in this game.
We had 77 points, 36 in the paint, 12 from the arc and 13 from the line so we had 28”POP”, (points outside the paint: 77-36-13) and scored 1 points, (28 POP-12 from the arc), from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. It was a weapon we used to very good effect in this game. They had 82/36/12/26= 18 POP and 6 from the Twilight Zone. We’ve only led in POP 3 times but we’ve led in TZ points 8 times in 10 games. For the year we are averaging 20 POP and 9 TZ, our opposition 25/6. The game is so much easier when you don’t have to go to the basket for all your points.
19 of our 30 baskets were assisted (.633) and 17 of their 22 (.773). For the year we are assisting on 61% of our baskets to 65% for the opposition, who have had a higher percentage in 7 of 10 games. Assists tend to come more often from jump shots than lay-ups or dunks so the more assists you get, the more you are settling for jump shots to try to win the game which is often a bad strategy.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 61 FGA - 8 OREBs + 20 TOs + (.475 x 18) = 81.55 possessions. They were 62 -15+ 18+ (.475 x 32) = 80.2 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 81 possessions in which we scored 77 points, (0.951) and 80 possessions in which they scored 82 points, (1.025). We have, of course, led 6 of 10 games in offensive efficiency since the winning team always leads in that stat. For the year we are averaging 1.010 points per possession to 0.878 for the opposition. In this game our offensive efficiency in the first half was 1.132. After that it was 0.704.
We had 161 combined possessions in this game. Since there was one overtime, I multiplied that by 40/45 to produce a 40 minute rate of 143 possessions. We’ve averaged 135 this year. We averaged 122 last year, so the pace appears to be better than it was last year.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog, and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game Michael Gbinije had 18 points and 5 assists for 23 “hockey” points and thus was our co-ODOG. Rakeem Christmas has been the O-Dog 4 times, Trevor Cooney and Michael Gbinije twice, BJ Johnson, Kaleb Joseph and Chris McCullough once each.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game 19-14, 24-17, 8-17, 18-21 OT: 8-13. For the season, we have an average of 15-11, 17-15, 16-15, 19-17. We’ve won 27 of 40 quarters. We’ve scored 15 or more in 26 quarters and held the opposition under that 21 times.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted Michael Gbinije opened the first half with a lay-up at 19:40 and Trevor Cooney did the same in the second half at 18:56. The average time we’ve had to wait is 1 minute 30 seconds. The longest we’ve waited this season is 2 minutes and 52 seconds in the first half vs. Loyola, (of course they would have waited for 11:30 in that game). Rakeem Christmas has sat us down 6 times, Kaleb Joseph, 4 times Chris McCullough 3 times, Trevor Cooney and Michael Gbinije twice and Tyler Roberson once.
FOULS
My theory about fouls is that the team that attempts the most two point shots will tend to get fouled the most. If the numbers are as predicted or close, there’s nothing to be read into them but if there’s a big disparity, it makes you wonder about how the game was called. In this game, we attempted 49 two point shots to 46, scored 36 points in the paint to 38 and got fouled 17 times to 27, attempting 18 foul shots to 32. The two point shots and points in the paint suggest the fouls called and free throw attempts should have been approximately even. They weren’t close. The ratio of two point attempts to times fouled was 2.9 for us and 1.7 for them. The ratio of points in the paint to times fouled was 2.1 for us to 1.4 for them. The ratio of free throw attempts to fouls called on the other team was 0.9 for us and 1.2 for them.
Last year we attempted 1368 two point shots to 993 for the opposition and scored 1028 PIP to 753. We committed 546 fouls to 598 and went to the line 720 to 607 times, suggesting that there should be a relationship between two points attempts and points in the point and how many fouls are called on the other team and how many times you got to the line. The ratio of two point attempts to times fouled was 2.3 for us and 1.8 for them. The ratio of points in the paint to times fouled was 1.7 for us to 1.4 for them. The ratio of free throw attempts to fouls called on the other team was 1.2 for us and 1.1 for them.
This year we have taken 433 two point shots and scored 356 points in the paint. We’ve been fouled 176 times and taken 198 free throws. Our opposition has taken 353 two point shots and scored 234 points in the paint. They’ve been fouled 166 times and taken only 183 free throws. The ratio of two point attempts to times fouled has been 2.5 for us and 2.1 for them. The ratio of points in the paint to times fouled has been 2.0 for us to 1.4 for them. The ratio of free throw attempts to fouls called on the other team has been 1.1 for us and 1.1 for them.
I can see some basis in the numbers for concluding that this game was not evenly officiated.
“MY MAN”
A reporter once asked Casey Stengel how come he won so many games with the Yankees. He said “Because I never play a game without “my man”. The reporter wondered who his man was. Casey suggested “You could look it up.” The reporter did look it up and found that Yogi Berra had played in every game that season at some positon: catcher, left field, pinch-hitting, something. He was the player Stengel had the highest regard for and the most trust in, so he didn’t want to do without him. Who is Jim Boeheim’s “man” this season? The only way to tell is to see who plays the most minutes each game. In this game, Trevor Cooney and Kaleb Joseph both played all 45 minutes. Trevor Cooney has been the “Man” 5 times, Chris McCullough and Kaleb Joseph 4 times and Rakeem Christmas once. Cooney has re-taken the team lead in minutes played with 359, 18 more than any other player.
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