SWC75
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I’ll continue doing a statistical analysis of games this year with some of the off-beat numbers I like to look at. I’ll post them after each game, probably the next day.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things player do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Rakeem Christmas 13NP in 29 minutes season: 229NP in 670 minutes per 40: 13.7
C. J. Fair………………. 12NP in 39 minutes season: 344NP in 1093 minutes per 40: 12.6
Tyler Ennis………….. 9NP in 37 minutes season: 371NP in 1023 minutes per 40: 14.5
Trevor Cooney…… 6NP in 34 minutes season: 301NP in 940 minutes per 40: 12.8
Tyler Roberson……. 3NP in 3 minutes season: 23NP in 130 minutes per 40: 7.1
Michael Gbinije …. 0NP in 30 minutes season: 94NP in 419 minutes per 40: 9.0
Baye Moussa Keita -1NP in 12 minutes season: 91NP in 427 minutes per 40: 8.5
Jerami Grant……….. -3NP in 13 minutes season: 331NP in 867 minutes per 40: 15.3
DNP
Ron Patterson…….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 12NP in 50 minutes per 40: 9.4
B. J. Johnson……….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 1NP in 51 minutes per 40: 0.8
INJURED
DaJuan Coleman…. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 61NP in 169 minutes per 40: 14.4
Comment: It’s not accidental that our two injured big men had “minus” games, or that we got killed on the boards in this game, (see below), something that hasn’t happened very often this season.
Tyler Ennis has led, (or tied for the lead), in net points 12 times. Trevor Cooney, CJ Fair and Rakeem Christmas have led 5 times, Jerami Grant 4 times and DaJuan Coleman and Baye Keita once each.
Possession:
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 10 offensive and 19 defensive rebounds. They had 13 offensive and 26 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 10 of 36 times, (27.8%). When they missed, they got the ball 13 of 32 times (40.6%). Even those numbers were deceiving. Baye Keita got three offensive rebounds and immediately surrendered the ball to Virginia on two of them. Virginia lived off the offensive boards with 9 of them in the first half. In the second half they didn’t miss shots so they didn’t need offensive rebounds.
We’ve averaged getting 38.5% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 32.3% of theirs. We have won the rebounding battle by this measure 20 times in 29 games.
Of our 5 turnovers, 3 were their steals and 2 were our own miscues. Of their 6 turnovers, 4 were Syracuse steals and 2 were their fault. Syracuse has had fewer turnovers in 25 of 29 games, with two even. Overall we are ahead by 139 turnovers on the season, (260-399) and are also ahead in unforced errors, (136-163). We have had single digit turnovers in 13 of 16 ACC games and no more than 11 of them in any conference game. That’s very impressive for a team with a young backcourt.
If you add our 29 rebounds to their 6 turnovers, we had 35 “manufactured possessions”. They had 39 + 5= 44, so we were -9, tied with the first Pittsburgh game for our worst margin of the season. We’ve won that battle 24 times this season in 29 games, with an average margin of +8.1. We’ve won by double figures 13 times. It’s a big reason we are 26-3.
Shooting:
It’s still what the game is all about. It’s what this game was all about, for sure. We were 15 for34, (.441) inside the arc, 5 for 22, (.227) outside it and 11 for 14 (.786) from the line. They were 19 for 38 (.500), 8/16 (.500) and 13/19 (.684). Through the first Duke game, we were shooting 50.2% inside the arc. We haven’t shot 50% in any game since, averaging 41.6% (133 for 320). It’s not just clanging three pointers that has slowed us down.
On the season, Syracuse is shooting .478/.340/.705, the opposition .452/.345/.660. We complain about our free throw shooting but we are now out-shooting the opposition on the year by 45 points. Here are our two point percentages for every year of this decade: 2009-10: .571-.462 (+109), 2010-11: .562-.444 (+118), 2011-12: .519-.425 (+94), 2012-13: .485-.425 (+60). So far this year: .478-.452 = +26. If we’d have shot .571 inside the arc this year, (and the 2010 team did), we’d have scored 214 more points, 7.4 more per game. That would have made this year’s games a little easier to take.
We had 56 points, (we have now scored 61, 57, 58, 56, 59, 60, 57 and 56 points in successive games), 24 in the paint, 15 from the arc and 11 from the line so we scored 6 points from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 75-34-24-13= 4 points in the Twilight Zone. Overall, we had 21 POP: Points Outside the Paint to 28 for them. There’s your ball game. So far this year Syracuse is averaging 23 POP, 8 from the TZ, the opposition 26/5.
8 of our 20 baskets were assisted (.400) and 19 of their 27 (.704). For the year we are assisting on 50.6% of our baskets to 64.3% for the opposition, who have had more assists or a higher percentage in 25 of 29 games,26 of which we’ve won. Assists tend to come more often from jump shots than lay-ups or dunks so the more assists you get, the more you are settling for jump shots to try to win the game which is often a bad strategy.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 56 FGA - 10 OREBs + 5 TOs + (.475 x 14 = 57.65 possessions. They were 54 -13 + 6 + (.475 x 19) = 56.025 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 57 possessions in which we scored 56 points, (0.982) and 56 possessions in which they scored 75 points, (1.339). That’s the most points per possession we’ve given up all year and only Duke in the Dome game, (1.309) is close. WE had the highest rate of the season in that game, 1.358. We haven’t averaged a full point per possession in any of the alst 6 games.
For the year we are 1.125 vs. 0.973 = 0.152. Let’s compare that to past seasons, (information from the SU Media Guide, which goes back to 1982-83):
1982-83 1.253-1.153 = 0.100
1983-84 1.024-0.936 = 0.088
1984-85 1.014-0.931 = 0.083
1985-86 1.144-0.901 = 0.243
1986-87 1.144-0.995 = 0.149
1987-88 1.191-0.966 = 0.225
1988-89 1.217-1.001 = 0.216
1989-90 1.135-0.983 = 0.152
1990-91 1.102-0.979 = 0.123
1991-92 1.062-1.016 = 0.046
1992-93 1.054-0.988 = 0.066
1993-94 1.085-0.983 = 0.102
1994-95 1.037-0.957 = 0.080
1995-96 1.062-0.957 = 0.105
1996-97 1.020-0.930 = 0.090
1997-98 1.014-0.949 = 0.065
1998-99 1.021-0.887 = 0.134
1999-00 1.092-0.935 = 0.157
2000-01 1.034-0.968 = 0.066
2001-02 1.016-0.976 = 0.040
2002-03 1.096-0.980 = 0.116
2003-04 1.070-0.995 = 0.075
2004-05 1.104-0.964 = 0.140
2005-06 1.026-0.961 = 0.065
2006-07 1.055-0.951 = 0.104
2007-08 1.080-1.017 = 0.063
2008-09 1.089-0.980 = 0.109
2009-10 1.137-0.937 = 0.200
2010-11 1.104-0.951 = 0.153
2011-12 1.132-0.933 = 0.199
2012-13 1.071-0.895 = 0.176
This year’s team at 1.125 is the 8th most efficient offense we’ve had in the last 32 years. It’s the 19th most efficient defense. A greater pace produces more points but not greater efficiency in scoring them.
We’ve averaged 122 combined possessions per game this year. In this game, there were 113. But that didn’t stop Virginia from scoring 75 points. Pace alone doesn’t hold down scoring if you are efficient.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game: 13-16, 15-11, 14-19, 14-29. The average for the season is: 16-13, 18-14, 17-16, 18-16. We’ve won 70 quarters, (and one overtime), lost 39 and tied 7. We’ve scored at least 15 in 75 of 116 quarters and held the opposition under that 61 times. But we’ve only scored 15 in 11 of our last 32 quarters, (since the first Duke game).
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog, and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game Tyler Ennis had 13 points and 4 assists for 17 “hockey points”. So far Tyler Ennis has led 13 times and CJ Fair has done it 10 times, Trevor Cooney 5 times, Jerami Grant has done it 3 times and Rakeem Christmas once, including ties.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted than those later in the game, (although sometimes we don’t score until later). In this game CJ Fair did it in the first half with a lay-up 49 seconds in. Michael Gbinije did it in the second half with a lay-up at 2:07 CJ Fair has now sat us down 18 times, Tyler Ennis and Trevor Cooney 10 times, Rakeem Christmas 9 times, and DaJuan Coleman 5 times and Jerami Grant 4 times, (remember he didn’t start until Coleman got hurt) and Michael Gbinije once.
Longest: 8:50, second half vs. Miami. 5:42 first half vs. Boston College. We were 4:51 vs. St. Francis, (second half), 3:12 vs. Villanova (first half), 2:44 vs. Pittsburgh II (second half) 2:37 vs. Notre Dame (first half), 2:29 vs. Eastern Michigan (second half), 2:13 vs. Pittsburgh (first half),2:07 vs. Virginia (second half), 2:05 vs. North Carolina (second half), 1:45 vs. Boston College (first half), 1:38 vs. Pittsburgh (second half), 1:26 vs. Duke (first half), 1:25 vs. Wake Forest, (1st half) and NC State (second Half), 1:21 vs. Duke (second half) 1:18 vs. North Carolina (first half) and Pittsburgh II (first half), 1:17 vs. Maryland (second half), 1:16 vs. Clemson (first half) and 1:11 vs. Maryland, (first half)
Fouls
We were charged with 18 fouls to 13 for Virginia. We attempted 14 fouls shots to 19 for them. We had 24 points in the paint to 34 for them. We attempted 34 two point shots to 38 for them. So the foul disparity doesn’t seem “out of whack” as it did in the previous two games when Syracuse had a total of 44 PIP to 38 and attempted 94 two point shots to 45 but got called for 39 fouls to 28 and went to the line 20 times to 52.
On the season we have attempted 1154 two point shots to 821 for the opposition and scored 870 PIP to 619. We’ve committed 461 fouls to 521 and gone to the line 624 to 512 times, suggesting that there should be a relationship between two points attempts and points in the point and how many fouls are called on the other team and how many times you got to the line.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things player do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Rakeem Christmas 13NP in 29 minutes season: 229NP in 670 minutes per 40: 13.7
C. J. Fair………………. 12NP in 39 minutes season: 344NP in 1093 minutes per 40: 12.6
Tyler Ennis………….. 9NP in 37 minutes season: 371NP in 1023 minutes per 40: 14.5
Trevor Cooney…… 6NP in 34 minutes season: 301NP in 940 minutes per 40: 12.8
Tyler Roberson……. 3NP in 3 minutes season: 23NP in 130 minutes per 40: 7.1
Michael Gbinije …. 0NP in 30 minutes season: 94NP in 419 minutes per 40: 9.0
Baye Moussa Keita -1NP in 12 minutes season: 91NP in 427 minutes per 40: 8.5
Jerami Grant……….. -3NP in 13 minutes season: 331NP in 867 minutes per 40: 15.3
DNP
Ron Patterson…….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 12NP in 50 minutes per 40: 9.4
B. J. Johnson……….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 1NP in 51 minutes per 40: 0.8
INJURED
DaJuan Coleman…. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 61NP in 169 minutes per 40: 14.4
Comment: It’s not accidental that our two injured big men had “minus” games, or that we got killed on the boards in this game, (see below), something that hasn’t happened very often this season.
Tyler Ennis has led, (or tied for the lead), in net points 12 times. Trevor Cooney, CJ Fair and Rakeem Christmas have led 5 times, Jerami Grant 4 times and DaJuan Coleman and Baye Keita once each.
Possession:
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 10 offensive and 19 defensive rebounds. They had 13 offensive and 26 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 10 of 36 times, (27.8%). When they missed, they got the ball 13 of 32 times (40.6%). Even those numbers were deceiving. Baye Keita got three offensive rebounds and immediately surrendered the ball to Virginia on two of them. Virginia lived off the offensive boards with 9 of them in the first half. In the second half they didn’t miss shots so they didn’t need offensive rebounds.
We’ve averaged getting 38.5% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 32.3% of theirs. We have won the rebounding battle by this measure 20 times in 29 games.
Of our 5 turnovers, 3 were their steals and 2 were our own miscues. Of their 6 turnovers, 4 were Syracuse steals and 2 were their fault. Syracuse has had fewer turnovers in 25 of 29 games, with two even. Overall we are ahead by 139 turnovers on the season, (260-399) and are also ahead in unforced errors, (136-163). We have had single digit turnovers in 13 of 16 ACC games and no more than 11 of them in any conference game. That’s very impressive for a team with a young backcourt.
If you add our 29 rebounds to their 6 turnovers, we had 35 “manufactured possessions”. They had 39 + 5= 44, so we were -9, tied with the first Pittsburgh game for our worst margin of the season. We’ve won that battle 24 times this season in 29 games, with an average margin of +8.1. We’ve won by double figures 13 times. It’s a big reason we are 26-3.
Shooting:
It’s still what the game is all about. It’s what this game was all about, for sure. We were 15 for34, (.441) inside the arc, 5 for 22, (.227) outside it and 11 for 14 (.786) from the line. They were 19 for 38 (.500), 8/16 (.500) and 13/19 (.684). Through the first Duke game, we were shooting 50.2% inside the arc. We haven’t shot 50% in any game since, averaging 41.6% (133 for 320). It’s not just clanging three pointers that has slowed us down.
On the season, Syracuse is shooting .478/.340/.705, the opposition .452/.345/.660. We complain about our free throw shooting but we are now out-shooting the opposition on the year by 45 points. Here are our two point percentages for every year of this decade: 2009-10: .571-.462 (+109), 2010-11: .562-.444 (+118), 2011-12: .519-.425 (+94), 2012-13: .485-.425 (+60). So far this year: .478-.452 = +26. If we’d have shot .571 inside the arc this year, (and the 2010 team did), we’d have scored 214 more points, 7.4 more per game. That would have made this year’s games a little easier to take.
We had 56 points, (we have now scored 61, 57, 58, 56, 59, 60, 57 and 56 points in successive games), 24 in the paint, 15 from the arc and 11 from the line so we scored 6 points from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 75-34-24-13= 4 points in the Twilight Zone. Overall, we had 21 POP: Points Outside the Paint to 28 for them. There’s your ball game. So far this year Syracuse is averaging 23 POP, 8 from the TZ, the opposition 26/5.
8 of our 20 baskets were assisted (.400) and 19 of their 27 (.704). For the year we are assisting on 50.6% of our baskets to 64.3% for the opposition, who have had more assists or a higher percentage in 25 of 29 games,26 of which we’ve won. Assists tend to come more often from jump shots than lay-ups or dunks so the more assists you get, the more you are settling for jump shots to try to win the game which is often a bad strategy.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 56 FGA - 10 OREBs + 5 TOs + (.475 x 14 = 57.65 possessions. They were 54 -13 + 6 + (.475 x 19) = 56.025 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 57 possessions in which we scored 56 points, (0.982) and 56 possessions in which they scored 75 points, (1.339). That’s the most points per possession we’ve given up all year and only Duke in the Dome game, (1.309) is close. WE had the highest rate of the season in that game, 1.358. We haven’t averaged a full point per possession in any of the alst 6 games.
For the year we are 1.125 vs. 0.973 = 0.152. Let’s compare that to past seasons, (information from the SU Media Guide, which goes back to 1982-83):
1982-83 1.253-1.153 = 0.100
1983-84 1.024-0.936 = 0.088
1984-85 1.014-0.931 = 0.083
1985-86 1.144-0.901 = 0.243
1986-87 1.144-0.995 = 0.149
1987-88 1.191-0.966 = 0.225
1988-89 1.217-1.001 = 0.216
1989-90 1.135-0.983 = 0.152
1990-91 1.102-0.979 = 0.123
1991-92 1.062-1.016 = 0.046
1992-93 1.054-0.988 = 0.066
1993-94 1.085-0.983 = 0.102
1994-95 1.037-0.957 = 0.080
1995-96 1.062-0.957 = 0.105
1996-97 1.020-0.930 = 0.090
1997-98 1.014-0.949 = 0.065
1998-99 1.021-0.887 = 0.134
1999-00 1.092-0.935 = 0.157
2000-01 1.034-0.968 = 0.066
2001-02 1.016-0.976 = 0.040
2002-03 1.096-0.980 = 0.116
2003-04 1.070-0.995 = 0.075
2004-05 1.104-0.964 = 0.140
2005-06 1.026-0.961 = 0.065
2006-07 1.055-0.951 = 0.104
2007-08 1.080-1.017 = 0.063
2008-09 1.089-0.980 = 0.109
2009-10 1.137-0.937 = 0.200
2010-11 1.104-0.951 = 0.153
2011-12 1.132-0.933 = 0.199
2012-13 1.071-0.895 = 0.176
This year’s team at 1.125 is the 8th most efficient offense we’ve had in the last 32 years. It’s the 19th most efficient defense. A greater pace produces more points but not greater efficiency in scoring them.
We’ve averaged 122 combined possessions per game this year. In this game, there were 113. But that didn’t stop Virginia from scoring 75 points. Pace alone doesn’t hold down scoring if you are efficient.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game: 13-16, 15-11, 14-19, 14-29. The average for the season is: 16-13, 18-14, 17-16, 18-16. We’ve won 70 quarters, (and one overtime), lost 39 and tied 7. We’ve scored at least 15 in 75 of 116 quarters and held the opposition under that 61 times. But we’ve only scored 15 in 11 of our last 32 quarters, (since the first Duke game).
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog, and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game Tyler Ennis had 13 points and 4 assists for 17 “hockey points”. So far Tyler Ennis has led 13 times and CJ Fair has done it 10 times, Trevor Cooney 5 times, Jerami Grant has done it 3 times and Rakeem Christmas once, including ties.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted than those later in the game, (although sometimes we don’t score until later). In this game CJ Fair did it in the first half with a lay-up 49 seconds in. Michael Gbinije did it in the second half with a lay-up at 2:07 CJ Fair has now sat us down 18 times, Tyler Ennis and Trevor Cooney 10 times, Rakeem Christmas 9 times, and DaJuan Coleman 5 times and Jerami Grant 4 times, (remember he didn’t start until Coleman got hurt) and Michael Gbinije once.
Longest: 8:50, second half vs. Miami. 5:42 first half vs. Boston College. We were 4:51 vs. St. Francis, (second half), 3:12 vs. Villanova (first half), 2:44 vs. Pittsburgh II (second half) 2:37 vs. Notre Dame (first half), 2:29 vs. Eastern Michigan (second half), 2:13 vs. Pittsburgh (first half),2:07 vs. Virginia (second half), 2:05 vs. North Carolina (second half), 1:45 vs. Boston College (first half), 1:38 vs. Pittsburgh (second half), 1:26 vs. Duke (first half), 1:25 vs. Wake Forest, (1st half) and NC State (second Half), 1:21 vs. Duke (second half) 1:18 vs. North Carolina (first half) and Pittsburgh II (first half), 1:17 vs. Maryland (second half), 1:16 vs. Clemson (first half) and 1:11 vs. Maryland, (first half)
Fouls
We were charged with 18 fouls to 13 for Virginia. We attempted 14 fouls shots to 19 for them. We had 24 points in the paint to 34 for them. We attempted 34 two point shots to 38 for them. So the foul disparity doesn’t seem “out of whack” as it did in the previous two games when Syracuse had a total of 44 PIP to 38 and attempted 94 two point shots to 45 but got called for 39 fouls to 28 and went to the line 20 times to 52.
On the season we have attempted 1154 two point shots to 821 for the opposition and scored 870 PIP to 619. We’ve committed 461 fouls to 521 and gone to the line 624 to 512 times, suggesting that there should be a relationship between two points attempts and points in the point and how many fouls are called on the other team and how many times you got to the line.