SWC75
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I’ll continue doing a statistical analysis of games this year with some of the off-beat numbers I like to look at. I’ll post them after each game, probably the next day.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things player do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Tyler Ennis………….. 19NP in 36 minutes season: 424NP in 1135 minutes per 40: 14.9
Jerami Grant……….. 18NP in 29 minutes season: 384NP in 971 minutes per 40: 15.8
Trevor Cooney…… 15NP in 27 minutes season: 319NP in 1067 minutes per 40: 12.0
C. J. Fair………………. 12NP in 32 minutes season: 372NP in 1205 minutes per 40: 12.3
Baye Moussa Keita 6NP in 16 minutes season: 100NP in 494 minutes per 40: 8.1
Rakeem Christmas 5NP in 23 minutes season: 249NP in 742 minutes per 40: 13.4
Ron Patterson…….. 4NP in 4 minutes season: 16NP in 54 minutes per 40: 11.9
Tyler Roberson……. 3NP in 9 minutes season: 30NP in 162 minutes per 40: 7.4
B. J. Johnson……….. 0NP in 4 minutes season: 1NP in 55 minutes per 40: 0.7
Michael Gbinije …. -1NP in 15 minutes season: 96NP in 476 minutes per 40: 8.1
DNP- none
INJURED
DaJuan Coleman…. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 61NP in 169 minutes per 40: 14.4
Comment: We suddenly have another double figure net points guy thanks to a three pointer that Buss Patterson banked in, (I doubt that was the plan). But when our regulars why are 10NP a game guys all get it going at once, we can be a very good team. We were one short of that yesterday. Rakeem Christmas still have to get up to speed and his teammate speed to get him more involved. But the bottom line is that hitting the open man is better than running isos for CJ or Tyler trying to do it all at the end. I’ve always said that when 1-2 guys play well, we are vulnerable. When 3-4 play well, we win. When it’s more than that, we blow somebody’s doors off. Four guys played well vs. Florida State, (+10NP) and in this game.
Tyler Ennis has led, (or tied for the lead), in net points 14 times. CJ Fair has led 7 times, Trevor Cooney, and Rakeem Christmas 5 times, Jerami Grant 4 times and DaJuan Coleman and Baye Keita once each. CJ had been tied with Trevor Cooney and Rakeem Christmas before last night.
Possession:
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 13 offensive and 28 defensive rebounds. They had 8 offensive and 17 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 13 of 30 times, (43.3%). When they missed, they got the ball 8 of 36 times (22.2%). We’ve averaged getting 38.6% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 31.3% of theirs. We have won the rebounding battle by this measure 24 times in 33 games.
Of our 12 turnovers, 4 were their steals and 8 were our own miscues. Of their 13 turnovers, 8 were Syracuse steals and 5 were their fault. Syracuse has had fewer turnovers in 29 of 33 games, (and won 28 of them), with two even. Overall we are ahead by 144 turnovers on the season, (297-441) and are also ahead in unforced errors, (158-176). We had single digit turnovers in 15 of 19 ACC games and no more than 12 of them in any conference game. That’s very impressive for a team with a young backcourt.
If you add our 41 rebounds to their 13 turnovers, we had 54 “manufactured possessions”. They had 25 + 12= 37, so we were +5. We’ve won that battle 28 times this season in 33 games, (and are 28-5) with an average margin of +8.3. We’ve won by double figures 15 times.
Shooting:
It’s still what the game is all about. It’s what this game was all about, for sure. We were 21 for 40, (.525) inside the arc, 7 for 17, (.412) outside it and 14 for 17 (.824) from the line. They were 13 for 31 (.419), 4/18 (.222) and 15/20 (.750). Against Florida State we were 24/45 (.533) inside the arc and 5 for 15 outside of it. The Noles were 15/36 (.417) and 4/14. Against NC State we were 14/38 (.368) inside the arc and 4 for 17 outside of it. The Wolfpack were 18/36 (.500) and 5/14. The difference in those games was all about making two point shots.
On the season, Syracuse is shooting .477/.337/.706, the opposition .454/.340/.665. We complain about our free throw shooting but we are now out-shooting the opposition on the year by 41 points. Here are our two point percentages for every year of this decade: 2009-10: .571-.462 (+109), 2010-11: .562-.444 (+118), 2011-12: .519-.425 (+94), 2012-13: .485-.425 (+60). So far this year: .475-.455 = +20. If we’d have shot .571 inside the arc this year, (and the 2010 team did), we’d have scored 250 more points, 8 more per game. That would have made this year’s games a little easier to take.
We had 77 points, 28 in the paint, 21 from the arc and 14 from the line so we scored 14 points from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 53-24-12-15= 2 points in the Twilight Zone. Overall, we had 35 POP: Points Outside the Paint to 14 for them. Against FSU we had 31 POP and 16 points in the TZ. Against NC State is was 18 and 6. The game is so much easier when you don’t have to go to the basket for all your points. So far this year Syracuse is averaging 23 POP, 8 from the TZ, the opposition 25/5.
12 of our 28 baskets were assisted (.494) and 13 of their 17 (.764). For the year we are assisting on 49.4% of our baskets to 64.1% for the opposition, who have had more assists or a higher percentage in 29 of 33 games, (and we’ve won 28 of those games). Assists tend to come more often from jump shots than lay-ups or dunks so the more assists you get, the more you are settling for jump shots to try to win the game which is often a bad strategy.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 57 FGA - 13 OREBs + 12 TOs + (.475 x 17) = 64.075 possessions. They were 49 -8 + 13+ (.475 x 20) = 63.5 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 64 possessions in which we scored 77 points, (1.203) and 64 possessions in which they scored 53 points, (0.828). For the season we are averaging 1.122 points per possession, our opposition 0.973. We’ve averaged 122 combined possessions per game this year. In this game, there were 128.
To tell you the truth, I’m starting to wonder about this “efficiency” statistic. The logic of it seems unassailable: figure out the number of possessions and divide the number of points by the possessions and you can see how well we were taking advantage of each possession to score. But our offense vs. NC State was about as inefficient an offense as I’ve ever seen, at least for a Syracuse team. We missed 24 of 38 two point shots and 13 of 17 three point shots. Then there was that last, terrible possession. If we hadn’t gotten to the line 29 times and made 79% from there, we’d have never been in that game. And yet, we averaged 1.033 points per possessions. We’ve had a lower average than that in nine games this year, (Eastern Michigan, Miami, UNC, the first NC State game, the second BC game, second Duke, Maryland, Virginia and Georgia Tech). Looking at the stats on the SU website, (which begin with 1982-83), we’ve had five teams that were less offensively efficient than we were in this game for an entire season: 1996-97, 1997-98, 1998-99, 2001-02 and 2005-06. Those weren’t our best teams but they could put the ball in the basket a lot better than we did last night. Amazingly we’ve had only six teams that have been more offensively efficient than this one on the season: 1985-86 (1.144), 1986-87 (1.144), 1987-88 (1.191), 1988-89 (1.127), 1989-90 (1.135), 2009-10 (1.137), 2011-12 (1.132). This year we are at 1.122.
I think the problem can be seen in that last possession vs. NC State: it was one possession in which we didn’t score. But we had SIX chances to score. Each time we got the rebound, that was really another possession. We had six chances to score, not just the one. I’ll continue to quote the efficiency stat but it is imperfect, just like any other stat. it has to be taken in the context of everything else. Those shooting percentages do matter.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game 19-11, 21-10, 21-14, 16-18. The average for the season is: 16-13, 18-14, 17-16, 19-16. We’ve won 81 quarters, (and one overtime), lost 44, (and one overtime) and tied 7. We’ve scored at least 15 in 85 of 132 quarters and held the opposition under that 68 times.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog, and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game Tyler Ennis had 16 points and 6 assists for 22 “hockey points”. So far Tyler Ennis has led 15 times and CJ Fair has done it 12 times, Trevor Cooney 5 times, Jerami Grant has done it 3 times and Rakeem Christmas once, including ties.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted than those later in the game, (although sometimes we don’t score until later). In this game Rakeem Christmas did it in the first half with a lay-up 50 seconds in, (his only field goal of the game). Jerami Grant sat us down in the first half with a dunk at 1:18. Trevor Cooney did it in the second half with a jumper at 57 seconds. CJ Fair has now sat us down 22 times, Rakeem Christmas and Trevor Cooney 11 times, Tyler Ennis 10 times, and DaJuan Coleman and Jerami Grant 5 and Michael Gbinije once.
These are the games were we’ve taken more than two minutes to score in a half:
8:50, second half vs. Miami, 5:42 first half vs. Boston College, 4:51 vs. St. Francis, (second half), 3:12 vs. Villanova (first half), 2:44 at Pittsburgh (second half) 2:37 vs. Notre Dame (first half), 2:29 vs. Eastern Michigan (second half), 2:13 vs. Pittsburgh (first half), 2:07 at Virginia (second half), 2:05 vs. North Carolina (second half). Interesting that 8 of these ten games were in the Dome. We were actually standing and clapping for that long on those occasions.
Fouls
We were charged with 21 fouls to 16 for them. We attempted 17 fouls shots to 20 for them. We had 28 points in the paint to 24 for them. We attempted 40 two point shots to 31 for them. The foul disparity doesn’t seem as “out of whack” as it did in the Duke and Maryland games when Syracuse had a total of 44 PIP to 38 and attempted 94 two point shots to 45 but got called for 39 fouls to 28 and went to the line 20 times to 52. But you would think they would have been called for more fouls and we would have gone to the line more, especially in a game where they were behind the whole way and had to play catch-up.
On the season we have attempted 1324 two point shots to 963 for the opposition and scored 988 PIP to 735. We’ve committed 530 fouls to 582 and gone to the line 706 to 589 times, suggesting that there should be a relationship between two points attempts and points in the point and how many fouls are called on the other team and how many times you got to the line.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things player do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Tyler Ennis………….. 19NP in 36 minutes season: 424NP in 1135 minutes per 40: 14.9
Jerami Grant……….. 18NP in 29 minutes season: 384NP in 971 minutes per 40: 15.8
Trevor Cooney…… 15NP in 27 minutes season: 319NP in 1067 minutes per 40: 12.0
C. J. Fair………………. 12NP in 32 minutes season: 372NP in 1205 minutes per 40: 12.3
Baye Moussa Keita 6NP in 16 minutes season: 100NP in 494 minutes per 40: 8.1
Rakeem Christmas 5NP in 23 minutes season: 249NP in 742 minutes per 40: 13.4
Ron Patterson…….. 4NP in 4 minutes season: 16NP in 54 minutes per 40: 11.9
Tyler Roberson……. 3NP in 9 minutes season: 30NP in 162 minutes per 40: 7.4
B. J. Johnson……….. 0NP in 4 minutes season: 1NP in 55 minutes per 40: 0.7
Michael Gbinije …. -1NP in 15 minutes season: 96NP in 476 minutes per 40: 8.1
DNP- none
INJURED
DaJuan Coleman…. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 61NP in 169 minutes per 40: 14.4
Comment: We suddenly have another double figure net points guy thanks to a three pointer that Buss Patterson banked in, (I doubt that was the plan). But when our regulars why are 10NP a game guys all get it going at once, we can be a very good team. We were one short of that yesterday. Rakeem Christmas still have to get up to speed and his teammate speed to get him more involved. But the bottom line is that hitting the open man is better than running isos for CJ or Tyler trying to do it all at the end. I’ve always said that when 1-2 guys play well, we are vulnerable. When 3-4 play well, we win. When it’s more than that, we blow somebody’s doors off. Four guys played well vs. Florida State, (+10NP) and in this game.
Tyler Ennis has led, (or tied for the lead), in net points 14 times. CJ Fair has led 7 times, Trevor Cooney, and Rakeem Christmas 5 times, Jerami Grant 4 times and DaJuan Coleman and Baye Keita once each. CJ had been tied with Trevor Cooney and Rakeem Christmas before last night.
Possession:
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 13 offensive and 28 defensive rebounds. They had 8 offensive and 17 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 13 of 30 times, (43.3%). When they missed, they got the ball 8 of 36 times (22.2%). We’ve averaged getting 38.6% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 31.3% of theirs. We have won the rebounding battle by this measure 24 times in 33 games.
Of our 12 turnovers, 4 were their steals and 8 were our own miscues. Of their 13 turnovers, 8 were Syracuse steals and 5 were their fault. Syracuse has had fewer turnovers in 29 of 33 games, (and won 28 of them), with two even. Overall we are ahead by 144 turnovers on the season, (297-441) and are also ahead in unforced errors, (158-176). We had single digit turnovers in 15 of 19 ACC games and no more than 12 of them in any conference game. That’s very impressive for a team with a young backcourt.
If you add our 41 rebounds to their 13 turnovers, we had 54 “manufactured possessions”. They had 25 + 12= 37, so we were +5. We’ve won that battle 28 times this season in 33 games, (and are 28-5) with an average margin of +8.3. We’ve won by double figures 15 times.
Shooting:
It’s still what the game is all about. It’s what this game was all about, for sure. We were 21 for 40, (.525) inside the arc, 7 for 17, (.412) outside it and 14 for 17 (.824) from the line. They were 13 for 31 (.419), 4/18 (.222) and 15/20 (.750). Against Florida State we were 24/45 (.533) inside the arc and 5 for 15 outside of it. The Noles were 15/36 (.417) and 4/14. Against NC State we were 14/38 (.368) inside the arc and 4 for 17 outside of it. The Wolfpack were 18/36 (.500) and 5/14. The difference in those games was all about making two point shots.
On the season, Syracuse is shooting .477/.337/.706, the opposition .454/.340/.665. We complain about our free throw shooting but we are now out-shooting the opposition on the year by 41 points. Here are our two point percentages for every year of this decade: 2009-10: .571-.462 (+109), 2010-11: .562-.444 (+118), 2011-12: .519-.425 (+94), 2012-13: .485-.425 (+60). So far this year: .475-.455 = +20. If we’d have shot .571 inside the arc this year, (and the 2010 team did), we’d have scored 250 more points, 8 more per game. That would have made this year’s games a little easier to take.
We had 77 points, 28 in the paint, 21 from the arc and 14 from the line so we scored 14 points from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 53-24-12-15= 2 points in the Twilight Zone. Overall, we had 35 POP: Points Outside the Paint to 14 for them. Against FSU we had 31 POP and 16 points in the TZ. Against NC State is was 18 and 6. The game is so much easier when you don’t have to go to the basket for all your points. So far this year Syracuse is averaging 23 POP, 8 from the TZ, the opposition 25/5.
12 of our 28 baskets were assisted (.494) and 13 of their 17 (.764). For the year we are assisting on 49.4% of our baskets to 64.1% for the opposition, who have had more assists or a higher percentage in 29 of 33 games, (and we’ve won 28 of those games). Assists tend to come more often from jump shots than lay-ups or dunks so the more assists you get, the more you are settling for jump shots to try to win the game which is often a bad strategy.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 57 FGA - 13 OREBs + 12 TOs + (.475 x 17) = 64.075 possessions. They were 49 -8 + 13+ (.475 x 20) = 63.5 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 64 possessions in which we scored 77 points, (1.203) and 64 possessions in which they scored 53 points, (0.828). For the season we are averaging 1.122 points per possession, our opposition 0.973. We’ve averaged 122 combined possessions per game this year. In this game, there were 128.
To tell you the truth, I’m starting to wonder about this “efficiency” statistic. The logic of it seems unassailable: figure out the number of possessions and divide the number of points by the possessions and you can see how well we were taking advantage of each possession to score. But our offense vs. NC State was about as inefficient an offense as I’ve ever seen, at least for a Syracuse team. We missed 24 of 38 two point shots and 13 of 17 three point shots. Then there was that last, terrible possession. If we hadn’t gotten to the line 29 times and made 79% from there, we’d have never been in that game. And yet, we averaged 1.033 points per possessions. We’ve had a lower average than that in nine games this year, (Eastern Michigan, Miami, UNC, the first NC State game, the second BC game, second Duke, Maryland, Virginia and Georgia Tech). Looking at the stats on the SU website, (which begin with 1982-83), we’ve had five teams that were less offensively efficient than we were in this game for an entire season: 1996-97, 1997-98, 1998-99, 2001-02 and 2005-06. Those weren’t our best teams but they could put the ball in the basket a lot better than we did last night. Amazingly we’ve had only six teams that have been more offensively efficient than this one on the season: 1985-86 (1.144), 1986-87 (1.144), 1987-88 (1.191), 1988-89 (1.127), 1989-90 (1.135), 2009-10 (1.137), 2011-12 (1.132). This year we are at 1.122.
I think the problem can be seen in that last possession vs. NC State: it was one possession in which we didn’t score. But we had SIX chances to score. Each time we got the rebound, that was really another possession. We had six chances to score, not just the one. I’ll continue to quote the efficiency stat but it is imperfect, just like any other stat. it has to be taken in the context of everything else. Those shooting percentages do matter.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game 19-11, 21-10, 21-14, 16-18. The average for the season is: 16-13, 18-14, 17-16, 19-16. We’ve won 81 quarters, (and one overtime), lost 44, (and one overtime) and tied 7. We’ve scored at least 15 in 85 of 132 quarters and held the opposition under that 68 times.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog, and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game Tyler Ennis had 16 points and 6 assists for 22 “hockey points”. So far Tyler Ennis has led 15 times and CJ Fair has done it 12 times, Trevor Cooney 5 times, Jerami Grant has done it 3 times and Rakeem Christmas once, including ties.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted than those later in the game, (although sometimes we don’t score until later). In this game Rakeem Christmas did it in the first half with a lay-up 50 seconds in, (his only field goal of the game). Jerami Grant sat us down in the first half with a dunk at 1:18. Trevor Cooney did it in the second half with a jumper at 57 seconds. CJ Fair has now sat us down 22 times, Rakeem Christmas and Trevor Cooney 11 times, Tyler Ennis 10 times, and DaJuan Coleman and Jerami Grant 5 and Michael Gbinije once.
These are the games were we’ve taken more than two minutes to score in a half:
8:50, second half vs. Miami, 5:42 first half vs. Boston College, 4:51 vs. St. Francis, (second half), 3:12 vs. Villanova (first half), 2:44 at Pittsburgh (second half) 2:37 vs. Notre Dame (first half), 2:29 vs. Eastern Michigan (second half), 2:13 vs. Pittsburgh (first half), 2:07 at Virginia (second half), 2:05 vs. North Carolina (second half). Interesting that 8 of these ten games were in the Dome. We were actually standing and clapping for that long on those occasions.
Fouls
We were charged with 21 fouls to 16 for them. We attempted 17 fouls shots to 20 for them. We had 28 points in the paint to 24 for them. We attempted 40 two point shots to 31 for them. The foul disparity doesn’t seem as “out of whack” as it did in the Duke and Maryland games when Syracuse had a total of 44 PIP to 38 and attempted 94 two point shots to 45 but got called for 39 fouls to 28 and went to the line 20 times to 52. But you would think they would have been called for more fouls and we would have gone to the line more, especially in a game where they were behind the whole way and had to play catch-up.
On the season we have attempted 1324 two point shots to 963 for the opposition and scored 988 PIP to 735. We’ve committed 530 fouls to 582 and gone to the line 706 to 589 times, suggesting that there should be a relationship between two points attempts and points in the point and how many fouls are called on the other team and how many times you got to the line.
