NIT?

[TexanMark]

Can we get to 18 wins? Figure that is the minimum needed.

 

[JrodCuse]

If a team scores more than 55 there’s a solid chance we’re losing so I don’t know?

 

[two3zone]

Don't think there is any doubt we're an NIT team.

 

[SoBeCuse]

It was 1 on 5 and Pitt kept it close for awhile. 59 points, lol.

 

[Cusefan0307]

KenPom predicts us at 19 wins.

 

[TexanMark]

I figure wins at GTech and Pitt and home for Wake are pretty sure wins and maybe also BC and NCSt at home. I figure 16 wins is a good bet...18 possible with one win in the ACC to get to 19. I figure that (19) is best case.

 

[Cusefan0307]

I figure wins at GTech and Pitt and home for Wake are pretty sure wins and maybe also BC and NCSt at home. I figure 16 wins is a good bet...18 possible with one win in the ACC to get to 19. I figure that (19) is best case.

It’s ugly basketball don’t get me wrong, but I think this is a slightly pessimistic view. Outside of at Duke we will be favorites or no more than 6 point dogs the rest of the way. We haven’t been blown out and it’s ugly, but I suspect we will be in a lot of games down the stretch.

 

[TexanMark]

It’s ugly basketball don’t get me wrong, but I think this is a slightly pessimistic view. Outside of at Duke we will be favorites or no more than 6 point dogs the rest of the way. We haven’t been blown out and it’s ugly, but I suspect we will be in a lot of games down the stretch.

But...we have been losing all these close games late...until they change that...I'm going to be a Debbie Downer.

 

[CaptainJ]

But...we have been losing all these close games late...until they change that...I'm going to be a Debbie Downer.

I hear you, but I actually look at those in a more positive light, that the team isnt as bad as their record may look. They kept it fairly close on the road vs now #2 Virginia, as well. You're right though, they'd need to turn the corner soon and start becoming closers to have a short at the tournament. I mean most of us weren't picking a road win at FSU...and it nearly happened. Boeheim has worked magic before, may as well not give up until we have to.

On the other hand, this team looks capable of tanking. It's a shame they wouldn't get a good draft pick if they did.

 

[br801]

But...we have been losing all these close games late...until they change that...I'm going to be a Debbie Downer.

Guess I must have been hallucinating when they won those close games earlier in the season.

 

[hungrychuck]

I figure wins at GTech and Pitt and home for Wake are pretty sure wins and maybe also BC and NCSt at home. I figure 16 wins is a good bet...18 possible with one win in the ACC to get to 19. I figure that (19) is best case.

I hate to take a dimmer view than Mark, but the notion that games at GT and Pitt, and even home to Wake, are "pretty sure wins" made me raise an eyebrow. I realize we could also steal an unexpected game or two or three somewhere else, but I don't think we have any sure wins, or even pretty sure wins.

 

[orangecuse]

It was 1 on 5 and Pitt kept it close for awhile. 59 points, lol.

59 points is a complete joke against this absolutely putrid Pitt team. Pitt is not even a zone team, let alone a good one. Yet our guys looked as if they had never seen such a thing. Playing catch from the top of the key to the wing, from the wing back to the top of the key, again, and again and again. The only thing missing was turning themselves around and doing the hokey pokey...so incredibly frustrating.

 

[SoBeCuse]

59 points is a complete joke against this absolutely putrid Pitt team. Pitt is not even a zone team, let alone a good one. Yet our guys looked as if they had never seen such a thing. Playing catch from the top the key to the wing, from the wing back to the top of key, again, and again and again. The only thing missing was turning themselves around and doing the hokey pokey...so incredibly frustrating.

It was hard to watch. Happy for the W but I don’t think anybody should be feeling especially good about this one. They had a bunch of smurfs out there especially at the G spots and some very raw, albeit pretty physcially developed frontline guys. Easily the worst team (them or Colgate) I have seen on the schedule so far yet they may have beaten us with Luther playing.

 

[pearl31]

wins at GTech

this is not one you should figure. @ GT will be very difficult.
But I do think we manage to beat a couple of the good teams at home - say, UVA and Clemson

 

[domestu]

Yes, the Cuse will win at least eighteen games this season.

 

[Newhouser]

I figure wins at GTech and Pitt and home for Wake are pretty sure wins and maybe also BC and NCSt at home. I figure 16 wins is a good bet...18 possible with one win in the ACC to get to 19. I figure that (19) is best case.

You think at Ga Tech is a pretty sure win? I like your confidence.

 

[orangenirvana]

Don't think there is any doubt we're an NIT team.

There's major doubt because this team will be dancing in March. Book it.

 

[two3zone]

There's major doubt because this team will be dancing in March. Book it.

We've lost to 3 teams without one or two of their best players and a garbage Pitt team played competitive with us 75% of the time at home.

This win doesn't have us trending up.

 

[TexanMark]

You think at Ga Tech is a pretty sure win? I like your confidence.

They are playing better and more healthy now...Lammers is the key.

 

[orangenirvana]

We've lost to 3 teams without one or two of their best players and a garbage Pitt team played competitive with us 75% of the time at home.

This win doesn't have us trending up.

It's mid-January.

 

[Ryand877]

It's mid-January.

Doesn't change that we haven't played well. I certainly am glad we won last night, but the performance last night did nothing to make me feel better on the outlook for the rest of the season. Unfortunately, maybe the opposite.

 

[br801]

It's mid-January.

But what fun would it be if we actually let the season play out?

 

[two3zone]

It's mid-January.

So these losses don't count? Our play isn't any concern for future games? I'm not following you, what do you see that I don't that makes this a tournament team?

 

[Fly Rodder]

Guess I must have been hallucinating when they won those close games earlier in the season.

And things change. With baseball, the expectation is that a team will be .500 in 1-run games. It's just how it averages out over the years. Some teams are slightly better than .500 and some are slightly worse, but generally they're right around .500. When they're not there can be extenuating circumstances (such as an outstanding bullpen, extraordinary managing, etc.), but most of the time its just statistical noise and teams will end up right around .500 again.

This is basically Pomeroy's luck statistic, which for a team should be 0 (currently Syracuse is slightly unlucky). Teams can certainly win a bunch of close games and then drop a bunch of close ones or alternate, but generally, they should even out. Basically, just because SU won a few close ones early, that's not necessary predictive of future close games.

 

[TexanMark]

But what fun would it be if we actually let the season play out?

Isn't this a fan board? We speculate and commiserate.