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Message: [QUOTE="Fly Rodder, post: 2457307, member: 2133"] And things change. With baseball, the expectation is that a team will be .500 in 1-run games. It's just how it averages out over the years. Some teams are slightly better than .500 and some are slightly worse, but generally they're right around .500. When they're not there can be extenuating circumstances (such as an outstanding bullpen, extraordinary managing, etc.), but most of the time its just statistical noise and teams will end up right around .500 again. This is basically Pomeroy's luck statistic, which for a team should be 0 (currently Syracuse is slightly unlucky). Teams can certainly win a bunch of close games and then drop a bunch of close ones or alternate, but generally, they should even out. Basically, just because SU won a few close ones early, that's not necessary predictive of future close games. [/QUOTE]