Nitty Gritty (ESPN INsider): 'Cuse Really stands out

[arbitragegls]

The best record among all good teams belongs to 'Cuse which has the #1 RPI...but it goes so much deeper than that. When you check out meaningful wins against the top 100...'Cuse is a run-away winner. Would hope that all the talk about easy schedule goes away..and by the way 'Cuse has the #2 record for wins on the road behind Baylor...so all these know it all sports reporters can stick it:

ESPN INsider Nitty Gritty (top teams only)
Team 1-25 26-50 51-100 total (1-100 wins) Road wins
'Cuse 2-0 2-0 8-1 12-1 5-1
KY 3-1 2-0 2-0 7-1 4-1
Missouri 1-0 3-1 5-0 9-1 4-2
NC 2-3 1-0 4-0 7-3 3-2
Kansas 3-2 3-1 4-1 1 10-4 4-1
Duke 4-3 1-0 5-0 10-3 4-2
Baylor 1-2 6-0 2-0 9-2 6-1
MSU 4-3 1-2 2-0 7-5 4-3
OSU 4-2 1-1 2-0 7-3 3-3

 

[Section 314 Row C]

I think the point that people try to make, and one that is pretty well illustrated by these stats, is that SU has not played against the elite competition (Top 25 RPI) that schools like Kentucky, Duke, UNC, Kansas, MSU, & Ohio St. have played. We beat 2 top 25 teams...Florida at MSG (almost a home game) and Marquette at the dome.

Now, to say that these other teams should be ranked higher (or are better) than Syracuse because of this is completely baseless. I'm pretty confident that Cuse could have racked up plenty of "quality" wins vs. top 25 RPI teams like Indiana, Creighton, San Diego State, Temple, Memphis, St. Mary's, and Gonzaga.

Also, for what it's worth, we are about to be 4-0 vs the RPI top 25 after we beat down Georgetown and Connecticut this week.

 

[310Pigpen]

I think the point that people try to make, and one that is pretty well illustrated by these stats, is that SU has not played against the elite competition (Top 25 RPI) that schools like Kentucky, Duke, UNC, Kansas, MSU, & Ohio St. have played. We beat 2 top 25 teams...Florida at MSG (almost a home game) and Marquette at the dome.

Now, to say that these other teams should be ranked higher (or are better) than Syracuse because of this is completely baseless. I'm pretty confident that Cuse could have racked up plenty of "quality" wins vs. top 25 RPI teams like Indiana, Creighton, San Diego State, Temple, Memphis, St. Mary's, and Gonzaga.

Also, for what it's worth, we are about to be 4-0 vs the RPI top 25 after we beat down Georgetown and Connecticut this week.

Florida was in the dome not MSG.

 

[armory]

two more wins vs. the top 100 than every other team. more road wins against the top 100 than every team but Baylor. another cupcake SU schedule

 

[CusefanATL]

two more wins vs. the top 100 than every other team. more road wins against the top 100 than every team but Baylor. another cupcake SU schedule

I would rather be tested with games 1-50 than 51-100.

we are undoubtedly a top 5 team in the country. we should beat team 51-100 95% of the time.

 

[CorduroyG]

poppy will still find a way to criticize the schedule. come on poppy lets hear it.

we didnt play at kansas or ohio st or at cameron indoor in november so all our road wins dont really count. hows that?

 

[arbitragegls]

I would rather be tested with games 1-50 than 51-100.

we are undoubtedly a top 5 team in the country. we should beat team 51-100 95% of the time.

'Cuse is only team to be undefeated against 1-50...(as chart shows)...does that make you feel any better?

 

[OttosBestFriend]

poppy will still find a way to criticize the schedule. come on poppy lets hear it.

we didnt play at kansas or ohio st or at cameron indoor in november so all our road wins dont really count. hows that?

I finally see it... Those that defend the schedule feel as though those who criticize it are implying "the wins don't count."

I can guarantee you that no Syracuse fan or respected member of the media feels that way.

as for me, I just wish they'd play a higher caliber (see elite or "name brand" program) level of opponent once or twice in the OOC portion of the schedule because I'm greedy and simply love those match-ups.

Not because I think the OOC schedule isn't challenging.

Something tells me that most every other 'Cuse fan in here feels similarly.

Fact is, the attendance numbers back me up on this.

Cuse drew 24,459 for Florida on a Friday night.

But only 16,649 just a few nights earlier for Eastern Michigan.

Sure some of the increase can be attributed to Friday vs. Tuesday - but not the full 50% bump.

It's the "must-see" match-ups we want... Not an overhaul of the scheduling.

Give us 2-3 games versus the "band name" programs (Duke, UNC, Kentucky, Kansas, Mich St.,Ohio State, AZ, etc...) and we'll be quiet.

Something tells me we're gonna get just that with the jump to the ACC b/c I can't see 'Cuse not scheduling 2 of G'Town, SJU, UConn, or Nova in any given year.

 

[moqui]

I would rather be tested with games 1-50 than 51-100.

we are undoubtedly a top 5 team in the country. we should beat team 51-100 95% of the time.

yup . . . 1-50 are potential NCAA tournament teams . . . 51-100 are NIT squads.

It's not even the record against top 50 opponents that concerns me as much as the volume. Using Jerry Palm's Gory Details, we see that Syracuse and Southern Miss have the fewest games vs. quality opponents of anyone in his top ten:

Kentucky's schedule is not great, but the point, to me, is not to compare one schedule to another for the sake of winning some stupid pissing match. The point is to look at our schedule and ask our selves if this team has really been tested and is it a legitimate contender for a national title?

.(Or, the pessimistic side of the question: are the Orange going to get a high seed based on a puffed up record against middling competition and result in heartbreak and disappointment when they fizzle in March? This is the doubt that still keeps me from jumping on the bandwagon).

 

[CorduroyG]

yup . . . 1-50 are potential NCAA tournament teams . . . 51-100 are NIT squads.

It's not even the record against top 50 opponents that concerns me as much as the volume. Using Jerry Palm's Gory Details, we see that Syracuse and Southern Miss have the fewest games vs. quality opponents of anyone in his top ten:

Kentucky's schedule is not great, but the point, to me, is not to compare one schedule to another for the sake of winning some stupid pissing match. The point is to look at our schedule and ask our selves if this team has really been tested and is it a legitimate contender for a national title?

.(Or, the pessimistic side of the question: are the Orange going to get a high seed based on a puffed up record against middling competition and result in heartbreak and disappointment when they fizzle in March? This is the doubt that still keeps me from jumping on the bandwagon).

You really think the answer is no? You dont think we're a legit title contender? If you say no then youre probably the only 1 in the country. Well maybe you and doug gottlieb

 

[moqui]

You really think the answer is no? You dont think we're a legit title contender? If you say no then youre probably the only 1 in the country. Well maybe you and doug gottlieb

things aren't always black and white, yes or no. There is room for reasonable people (and, btw, Gottlieb is a reasonable person) to really look at that schedule and think "it might be a bit hollow."

My take on this team is and has been "we'll see."

 

[CusefanATL]

You really think the answer is no? You dont think we're a legit title contender? If you say no then youre probably the only 1 in the country. Well maybe you and doug gottlieb

i think we are a legit national title contender.

i dont think we have been tested by another national title contender. us and southern miss are the only teams able to say that in the rpi top 10

 

[CorduroyG]

things aren't always black and white, yes or no. There is room for reasonable people (and, btw, Gottlieb is a reasonable person) to really look at that schedule and think "it might be a bit hollow."

My take on this team is and has been "we'll see."

I was kidding about gottlieb, id actually be shocked if he didnt consider us a legit title contender. I just think people spend way too much time comparing schedules, and our fans spend way too much time complaining about our schedule. Is north carolina not a legit title contender cause theyre 1-3 against top 25 teams? Are we not a legit title contender cause we havent beaten a top 5 team on the road? If we lost by 4 at duke in november would that game really change how you feel about this team right now? Louisville on monday night is gonna tell me alot more about this team than whoever we played or beat or lost to in november. Most teams are not the same as they were in november. We squeaked by va tech at msg in november, im very confident if we played them now at msg we'd win by 20+.

 

[CorduroyG]

i think we are a legit national title contender.

i dont think we have been tested by another national title contender. us and southern miss are the only teams able to say that in the rpi top 10

i think florida is a national title contender, or at the very least final 4 contender (yes i know rutgers beat them). do you consider anyone besides us in the big east a national title contender? not our fault the big east sux this year and our conference schedule is mostly backloaded.

 

[moqui]

I was kidding about gottlieb, id actually be shocked if he didnt consider us a legit title contender. I just think people spend way too much time comparing schedules, and our fans spend way too much time complaining about our schedule. Is north carolina not a legit title contender cause theyre 1-3 against top 25 teams? Are we not a legit title contender cause we havent beaten a top 5 team on the road? If we lost by 4 at duke in november would that game really change how you feel about this team right now? Louisville on monday night is gonna tell me alot more about this team than whoever we played or beat or lost to in november. Most teams are not the same as they were in november. We squeaked by va tech at msg in november, im very confident if we played them now at msg we'd win by 20+.

I don't care about anyone else, so I am not concerned about their schedules. I only care about whether SU can win the title this year. I still have my doubts. While I think this is a good squad (and clearly much better than I thought it was pre-season), I can still see the flaws and I know it has been relatively untested against the kind of competition that it is going to face beyond the first round of the NCAA tournament. I know that JB is working to fix the flaws - I can see it game to game - but I will continue to have my doubts until I see it working against quality opponents, especially on the road.

The next three games will tell me more about this team than the last 24 have.

 

[Knicks411]

I've stated my feelings on the schedule a million times, so I wont waste anyone's time on that.

Moqui, how many teams do you think have a better shot at the championship than us? I hear a lot of what you are saying, but I still think you'd have to put us in the top 5 of teams that have a chance to win a title. Interested in your thoughts.

 

[moqui]

I've stated my feelings on the schedule a million times, so I wont waste anyone's time on that.

Moqui, how many teams do you think have a better shot at the championship than us? I hear a lot of what you are saying, but I still think you'd have to put us in the top 5 of teams that have a chance to win a title. Interested in your thoughts.

I'm trying not to think of it that way. I think that is just a way of whistling past the graveyard.

I think of it this way: The rounds of 32 and 16 are the Syracuse Basketball graveyard. You run into teams that are often (at least) moderately talented, well coached and disciplined. Teams that value each possession and don't turn the ball over a lot and therefore take a big part of SU's offensive advantage away.

JB has only advanced past the Sweet 16 on 4 occasions. Those 4 teams had something in common: the ability to score efficiently in half court sets, largely because they each had very strong low post scoring options. The 09-10 team had it in Arinze, but without him they once again dropped out at the round of 16. This year's squad has been in an opposite situation - they haven't had that go-to, low post threat most of the season, but there was reason to believe that Fab might become one by late in the year.

Can JB develop Fab into that consistent threat in the time remaining? Losing three games certainly didn't help the cause.

 

[Knicks411]

Like I said before, I hear a lot of what you're saying. I would be interested to check, are the teams you mention the teams that we frequently lose to in these rounds? You've got Butler, sure. Marquette last year turned the ball over 14 times in a 64 possession game, that's a pretty big amount. (more than we forced, on average last year). I started school in 02-03 (good year) so while i am aware of the history of the program prior to that, I don't know the ins and outs and details of a lot of other games. May be worth looking at the years we were a top 4 or 5 seed and failed to advance to the sweet 16 or elite 8.

The Elite 8 number isn't a good number, but when you look at the last 10-15 years, we've been a top 2 seed (so "expected" to go to the Elite 8) once, 2010. And that team, without AO, is likely not a top 2 seed. Maybe I should look at the late 80's, we were like a 2 seed every year for 5 years running or something.

All of which isn't to say I am not worried about the difficulty we sometimes have in generating points in the half court. But we've played 24 games and we're in the top 5 in the country in both forcing turnovers and not giving the ball away. I think we're going to turn over pretty much every team we play. (By which I mean it isn't just an issue of the other team valuing the basketball and not turning it over, they still need to do it against our D. Notre Dame, for example, is 12th in the country in TO%. We played one of our worst games of the year and turned them over 17 times in 64 possessions. And also, I think the lack of turnovers is a huge factor here too. I wouldn't be surprised if the bigger story in all the games we've lost in the NCAA tournament wasn't so much that we didn't turn the other team over, but that we turned it over too much. 18 turnovers against Marquette last year, 18 against Butler, 24 against Vermont, 17 against Alabama. We take care of the ball this year).

 

[HakAttack]

The next three games will tell me more about this team than the last 24 have.

Absolutely.

Couldn't agree more.

 

[Garbs]

I am pretty confident in this team, but like others are saying it is all about these next 3 games