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[QUOTE="Waltdods, post: 2605248, member: 2932"]
It’s obviously hard to find draft predictions from 1995 but my recollection was that he was slotted as a mid to late first round pick after his junior year. Here’s one (far from perfect) contemporaneous article saying the same thing: [URL="https://www.google.com/amp/www.nydailynews.com/amp/archives/sports/mark-wallace-story-book-article-1.711808"]ON THE MARK WALLACE STORY ONE FOR BOOK[/URL]

I don’t think Coleman was hurt by staying a year but I don’t think he was helped much either. (And 1990 was a different time for underclassmen.)

And that’s really my point, which is essentially the same point you make in your first paragraph: by the time they’ve played a couple years, the nba has a pretty good idea of who these guys are. Just continuing on your development curve isn’t going to improve your stock. The most likely outcome is that the player is in the same spot after another year as he was before. Could be worse, could be better, but I would argue that ex ante the very strong expectation should be that you’ll be exactly the same.

I do think that if you are currently a borderline nba player (which battle probably is), you might want the variance. That’s where battle might be - I don’t think the odds are good that he’ll improve his position by coming back, but the odds aren’t zero, and if you’re looking at going undrafted or to a non guaranteed slot, it might be worth the gamble.
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