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[QUOTE="HRE Otto IV, post: 1866137, member: 5685"]
Coaches don't go for it on 4th down often, so there is no sample size. That isn't debatable. I am in the coaches should go for it more often camp, but there is no real math just theory.

Also I believe the only simulations out there were for the NFL, where the variance from team to team is very small. So if the conversion average is lets say 60%, the deviation from that will be small. In college there is often a difference in talent on the field. So depending on the team that could mean a 90% rate or 30% rate. Sure the average is 60% but if you are the team that would only convert at a 30% rate then you shouldn't go for it as often as the team that can convert at a 90% clip.

I don't remember exactly what the study said but I believe it was something like:

4th and 1 yard or less always go for it
4th and 2-3 go for it outside your 35
4th and 4-6 go for it in your opponent's territory
4th and 7+ punt or FG

So a 4th and 3 from our own 30 woudl actually go against the "math" provided.

There are a lot of other factors that need to be considered as well. In the NFL if you are inside the 30 a FG is a given. That isn't the case in CFB, so in theory the is even less risk going for it on 4th down. Look at Mississippi State today. Mullen got into FG range and played for a FG. I would never want my HC to do that. Get a TD and don't worry about the snap, a blocked kick, or a missed FG (which happened).
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