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Message: [QUOTE="HRE Otto IV, post: 1866310, member: 5685"] I have read that before and several others. I am pro 4th down. My point is that a theoretical 4th down NFL chart shouldn't be the only thing a college HC goes by to determine what to do. Other factors are involved. Even from that article you can see: "This analysis only applies to ‘typical’ game situations when the score is relatively close, time is not expiring, and weather is not a large factor." Also to my point about data we can see: "Let's say you're the coach of a team facing a 4th down and 3 from the opponent's 37. It's early in the second quarter and the score is tied. Should you call a punt, attempt a FG, or go for it? In reality, coaches have called for the punt 100% of the time in close games early in the second quarter." They used 2400 NFL games and yards to go on 1st, 2nd, and 3rd downs. There were very few data points on actual 4th downs. So the 4th down sample size was small. The 4th down sample size on your own end of the field even smaller. If NFL HCs went for it a lot on 4th down then there would be nothing to debate, it would be conventional wisdom and not theory. Using 1st-3rd downs is flawed IMO as it doesn't taken into account sports psychology. Humans are not robots their emotions will impact their output. There isn't the same level of pressure to perform as there is on 4th down, where if you don't convert it is like a turnover. We see in end of game situations kids make stupid mistakes all the time because of the pressure. Look what the LSU QB did today. He doesn't make that mistake in the 1st Q. Also like I said above the NFL is a lot different than CFB. The NFL talent level from team to team doesn't vary as much as it does in CFB. So outcomes are a lot closer to the mean. In addition the level of execution in the NFL is at a different level. You cannot expect a kid to have the same output as a professional. Heck IMO the college HCs should go for it more often in your opponent's territory because of the poor FG kicking overall. In the NFL a 45 yard FG is a gimmie. So the expected points is a lot higher. And the opposite is true when in your own territory. An NFL team at their own 30 needs to go 40 yards to get an expected 3 points. A CFB team needs to more likely go 50 yards, assuming you don't have a good kicker or bad kicker which varies a lot more than in the NFL. So CFB HCs should go for it less often the further away they are compared to NFL HCs because the expected points is smaller. Thus using NFL data in college wouldn't really translate. Should HCs go for it more often? Yes, and the theoretical outcomes prove that to be true. Are all 4th downs in a vacuum where other factors should not be considered? Absolutely not. Does NFL data translate easily to CFB? No. [/QUOTE]

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