Reply to thread

Message

[QUOTE="Cusefan95, post: 5321235, member: 173"]
1 WAR is worth about $8MM/yr.  Last year Pete’s was 2.6, so he had a $20MM season.  It’s the second year in a row of dropping, near a time when all guys with just power start to decline - so that may be closer to his ceiling going forward.  Last year may not have been a “down year” - it was a slightly early start to an inevitable trend.

His career average WAR is 3.8 - so after his rookie year he basically settled in to being a $30MM/yr guy.  He’s definitely only worth 3, 4 years max to the Mets because after that he’ll probably need to be DH - and the Mets probably have Soto slotted there five years from now.  But the likelihood a guy who averages a WAR of 3.8 up to age 30 will still be a 3.8 WAR guy in three years is really, really low.  Pete’s more likely to get hit by lightning than hit 3.8 WAR in three years unless a three inch needle is involved.

What’s happened in the last 5-10 years is all teams heavily invest in analytics staff - and none of the analytics would say giving Pete more than 3/30 is a good idea.  If, as reported, the Mets offer is even lower - that means they’re sticking to what they project his actual value to be…he’s not going to average a 3.8 WAR for the next three years.
[/QUOTE]

Verification

What is a Syracuse fan's favorite color?